Forecasting the long-term impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for 'Experimental screening' for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Italy. METHODS: We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical 'Inefficient', 'Efficient experimental' and 'WHO Target' screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver-related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050. RESULTS: The 'WHO Target' scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' screening up to 2030. A sharp (10-fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the 'WHO Target' scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by 'WHO Target,' 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver-related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the 'WHO Target' scenario (52000) versus 'Inefficient' or 'Efficient experimental' scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver-related deaths, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long-term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

Safety and effectiveness of 8 weeks of Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir in challenging HCV patients: Italian data from the CREST study.

INTRODUCTION: Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) has demonstrated high rates (>95%) of sustained virologic response at posttreatment Week 12 (SVR12) in treatment-naïve (TN) patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated cirrhosis (CC). Here, in a key real-world subset of TN Italian patients with CC, we evaluated the effectiveness and safety of 8-week G/P treatment, including subgroups of interest such as those with genotype 3 (GT3) infection, elderly patients, and those with more advanced liver disease. METHODS: Subanalysis of Italian patients enrolled in the CREST study. The full analysis set (FAS) included all patients enrolled in the study; the modified analysis set (MAS) excluded patients who discontinued G/P for nonvirologic failure or who had missing SVR12 results. Primary and secondary endpoints included SVR12 and safety, respectively. RESULTS: Of 42 patients included in the FAS, 1 discontinued for unknown reasons, and 2 had missing SVR12 data, leaving 39 patients included in the MAS. At treatment initiation, 74% of patients had ≥1 comorbidity, and 62% were receiving concomitant medications, including some that may potentially interact with G/P. SVR12 was achieved in 100% of patients in the MAS, and in 95% in the FAS. In subgroups of interest, the proportion of patients achieving SVR12 in the MAS (and FAS) was: 100% (94%) for patients ≥65 years, 100% (86%) for GT3, and 100% (100%) for patients with platelet count <150 × 109/L and FibroScan® >20 kPa. Overall, 2 (5%) patients had an adverse event and neither were serious. CONCLUSION: Results from this real-world Italian cohort demonstrated the safety and effectiveness of 8-week G/P, with SVR12 rate >95%, even in elderly patients. These findings further support real-world evidence of the use of short-course G/P treatment in all patients with CC, including those with GT3, and those with advanced liver disease.

Prevalence of hepatitis C virus estimates of undiagnosed individuals in different Italian regions: a mathematical modelling approach by route of transmission and fibrosis progression with results up to January 2021.

This study provides an update on hepatitis C virus (HCV) estimates across Italy up to January 2021. A mathematical probabilistic modelling approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was used to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. Prevalence was defined by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment, and migration rate from the Italian National database (ISTAT). Viraemic infection was estimated for the main HCV transmission routes by stages F0-F3 (patients without liver cirrhosis, i.e., potentially asymptomatic liver disease) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, i.e., potentially symptomatic liver disease). By January 2021, we estimated that there were 398,610 individuals in Italy with active HCV infection (prevalence of 0.66%; 95% CI: 0.66-0.67), of which 287,730 (0.48%; 95% CI: 0.46-0.59%) were stage F0-F3. Prevalence values for all individuals with active HCV infection were: North 0.54% (95% CI: 0.53-0.54%), Central 0.88% (95% CI: 0.87-0.89%), South 0.72% (95% CI: 0.71-0.73%), and the Isles 0.67% (95% CI: 0.66-0.68%). The population at risk for previous/current drug injection accounted for 48.6% of all individuals with active HCV infection. A modelling approach such as this to estimate and update the prevalence of active HCV infection could be a useful methodology for the evaluation of healthcare policies related to HCV elimination plans.

Effectiveness and safety of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in chronic hepatitis C patients: Results of the Italian cohort of a post-marketing observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The MARS post-marketing, observational study evaluates glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in a large population of Italian patients who are infected with HCV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Achievement of SVR12 was the primary endpoint in the overall population and by subpopulations of interest (treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients, subjects infected with different HCV genotype/sub-genotype, cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, patients with different severity of fibrosis, patients with an APRI score ≥1, subjects with comorbidities, HIV-coinfected patients, elderly patients and people who use drugs). Safety and quality of life (assessed by SF-36 and Work Productivity and Activity Impairment) were also evaluated. RESULTS: The SVR12 rate was 99.4% (319/321; 95% CI: 97.8-99.8%) in the core population with sufficient follow-up (n = 321), 99.7% (289/290) in 8-week treated patients, and high (>96%) across subgroups. Only three patients (0.9%) had treatment-related adverse events that led to treatment discontinuation. In total, 30.1% of patients showed an improvement of ≥2.5 points in the Physical Component Summary of the SF-36 from baseline to the end of treatment, and this figure raised to 37.5% with the achievement of SVR12. Corresponding values for MCS were 42.2% and 42.8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir is safe and effective across subpopulations who are underserved in clinical trials.

IL28B gene polymorphisms and US liver fatty changes in patients who spontaneously cleared hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Recent clinical studies have shown that the presence of CC genotype in the rs12979860 region of IL28B gene is associated with an increase in the probability of spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Moreover, IL28B polymorphism seems to influence the probability of developing liver steatosis in chronic HCV patients. AIMS: The aims of our clinical study were 1) to verify the distribution of IL28B genotypes (CC, CT or TT) among subjects with spontaneous clearance of HCV infection and 2) to examine the correlation between IL28B polymorphism and hepatic steatosis among these subjects. METHODS AND PATIENTS: We enrolled 41 subjects with spontaneous resolution of HCV infection (detectable serum anti-HCV but undetectable HCV-RNA) and 134 healthy controls from the same geographical area. The IL28B single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs12979860 was genotyped by using a Pyrosequencing™ technique. The presence of steatosis was assessed by liver biopsy or ultrasound examination in the 41 study subjects. RESULTS: CC, CT and TT-genotypes of the SNP rs1979860 were found in 66%, 24% and 10% of the subjects who spontaneously cleared HCV and in 31%, 54% and 15% of controls, respectively (p = 0.0003). Among the study subjects, females with CC-genotype were significantly more represented (p = 0.02). Hepatic steatosis did not correlate with IL28B genotype (p = 0,14) but only with a high body mass index (BMI) value (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Female subjects carrying IL28B CC-genotype are significantly more represented among Italian patients who spontaneously cleared HCV infection. In addition, among these subjects, the presence of liver steatosis does not correlate with IL28B genotype but is solely related to the occurrence of high BMI. Thus, the association between IL28B polymorphism and steatosis in chronic HCV patients requires the presence of active HCV replication to occur, while in subjects who have cleared the infection, the mechanism(s) inducing liver steatosis are independent from IL28B profile.

Acute hepatitis B in a patient with OLT during treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin for hepatitis C recurrence.

The course and outcome of acute viral hepatitis in liver transplanted patients with hepatitis C recurrence are unknown. Here we describe a patient who presented with acute hepatitis B infection while on treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin for hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplantation. A nucleoside analogue was added (entecavir) and the patient cleared hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and seroconverted to anti-HBs. In this case, the acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection might have contributed to the clearance of HCV, the concomitant immunosuppression might have lead to the slow clearance of HBV infection, and the combined antiviral therapy has helped in the resolution of both infections. Hepatitis B vaccination should be recommended in susceptible patients waiting for liver transplantation.

Role of hepatitis B virus genetic barrier in drug-resistance and immune-escape development.

BACKGROUND: Impact of hepatitis B virus genetic barrier, defined as the number and type of nucleotide substitutions required to overcome drug/immune selective pressure, on drug-resistance/immune-escape development is unknown. METHODS: Genetic barrier was calculated according to Van de Vijver (2006) in 3482 hepatitis B virus-reverse transcriptase/HBV surface antigen sequences from 555 drug-naïve patients and 2927 antiviral-treated patients infected with hepatitis B virus genotypes A-G. RESULTS: Despite high natural variability, genetic barrier for drug-resistance development is identical amongst hepatitis B virus genotypes, but varies according to drug-resistance mutation type. Highest genetic barrier is found for secondary/compensatory mutations (e.g. rtL80I/V-rtL180M-rtV173L), whilst most primary mutations (including rtM204V-rtA181T/V-rtI169T-rtA194T) are associated with low genetic barrier. An exception is rtM204I, which can derive from a transition or a transversion. Genotypes A and G are more prone to develop immune/diagnostic-escape mutations sT114R and sG130N. Vaccine-escape associated sT131N-mutation is a natural polymorphism in both A and G genotypes. CONCLUSION: Genetic barrier and reverse transcriptase/HBV surface antigen overlapping can synergistically influence hepatitis B virus drug-resistance/immune-escape development. The different immune-escape potential of specific hepatitis B virus genotypes could have important clinical consequences in terms of disease progression, vaccine strategies and correct HBV surface antigen detection.

Lamivudine-resistance mutations can be selected even at very low levels of hepatitis B viraemia.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate lamivudine (LAM)-resistance profiles of hepatitis B virus (HBV) at the early stages of virological breakthrough (serum HBV-DNA 12-345IU/ml) or when HBV-DNA is undetectable. METHODS: Sixty-four HBV-mono-infected patients were enrolled: 25 had virological breakthrough with serum HBV-DNA ranging from 12 to 345IU/ml during first-line LAM-monotherapy; 24 were on LAM-monotherapy, and 15 were on LAM+adefovir dipivoxil (ADV) with undetectable serum HBV-DNA (<12IU/ml). RESULTS: HBV-reverse transcriptase was successfully sequenced in 22 (88.0%) LAM-treated patients with HBV-DNA between 12 and 345IU/ml, and in 12 (30.8%) patients receiving LAM (±ADV) with HBV-DNA<12IU/ml. Drug-resistance mutations were observed in 17 (77.2%) LAM-treated patients with virological breakthrough: 8 M204V, 7 M204I, 1 M204I/V, and 1 A181T. One or ≥2 compensatory mutations were found in 10 (58.8%) and in 4 (23.5%) patients. Drug-resistance mutations were present also in patients with undetectable serum HBV-DNA: M204I was detected in 2 patients receiving LAM-monotherapy, and V84M in 1 patient receiving LAM+ADV. CONCLUSION: Overall findings support the existence of drug-resistance mutations even at very low levels of viral replication. The persistence of low-level HBV replication and consequent drug-resistance emergence should be considered when choosing therapeutic strategies.