Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver diseases: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) accounts for the majority of patients hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology or Infectious Diseases. AIM: To explore the characterization of AoCLD to provide theoretical guidance for the accurate diagnosis and prognosis of AoCLD. METHODS: Patients with AoCLD from the Chinese Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) study cohort were included in this study. The clinical characteristics and outcomes, and the 90-d survival rate associated with each clinical type of AoCLD were analyzed, using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 3375 patients with AoCLD were enrolled, including 1679 (49.7%) patients with liver cirrhosis acute decompensation (LC-AD), 850 (25.2%) patients with ACLF, 577 (17.1%) patients with chronic hepatitis acute exacerbation (CHAE), and 269 (8.0%) patients with liver cirrhosis active phase (LC-A). The most common cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) was HBV infection (71.4%). The most common precipitants of AoCLD was bacterial infection (22.8%). The 90-d mortality rates of each clinical subtype of AoCLD were 43.4% (232/535) for type-C ACLF, 36.0% (36/100) for type-B ACLF, 27.0% (58/215) for type-A ACLF, 9.0% (151/1679) for LC-AD, 3.0% (8/269) for LC-A, and 1.2% (7/577) for CHAE. CONCLUSION: HBV infection is the main cause of CLD, and bacterial infection is the main precipitant of AoCLD. The most common clinical type of AoCLD is LC-AD. Early diagnosis and timely intervention are needed to reduce the mortality of patients with LC-AD or ACLF.

sTREM-1 as promising prognostic biomarker for acute-on-chronic liver failure and mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is associated with high short-term mortality, mainly due to the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Thus, there is a need for biomarkers for early and accurate identification of AD patients with high risk of development of ACLF and mortality. Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) is released from activated innate immune cells and correlated with various inflammatory processes. AIM: To explore the prognostic value of sTREM-1 in patients with AD of cirrhosis. METHODS: A multicenter prospective cohort of 442 patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for AD was divided into a study cohort (n = 309) and validation cohort (n = 133). Demographic and clinical data were collected, and serum sTREM-1 was measured at admission. All enrolled patients were followed-up for at least 1 year. RESULTS: In patients with AD and cirrhosis, serum sTREM-1 was an independent prognosis predictor for 1-year survival and correlated with liver, coagulation, cerebral and kidney failure. A new prognostic model of AD (P-AD) incorporating sTREM-1, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR) and hepatic encephalopathy grades was established and performed better than the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores. Additionally, sTREM-1 was increased in ACLF and predicted the development of ACLF during first 28-d follow-up. The ACLF risk score incorporating serum sTREM-1, BUN, INR, TBil and aspartate aminotransferase levels was established and significantly superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD and P-AD in predicting risk of ACLF development. CONCLUSION: Serum sTREM-1 is a promising prognostic biomarker for ACLF development and mortality in patients with AD of cirrhosis.

Association of AST/ALT ratio with 90-day outcomes in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic liver disease: a prospective multicenter cohort study in China.

Background and aim: A high aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio is associated with liver injury in liver disease; however, no data exist regarding its relationship with 90-day prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic liver disease. Methods: In this study, 3,758 participants (955 with advanced fibrosis and 2,803 with cirrhosis) from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China were included. The relationships between different AST/ALT ratios and the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes (death or liver transplantation) were determined in patients with cirrhosis or hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated advanced fibrosis, respectively. Results: In the patients with HBV-associated advanced fibrosis, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes increased with AST/ALT ratio; after adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes was the highest when AST/ALT ratio was more than 1.08 (OR = 6.91 [95% CI = 1.789-26.721], p = 0.005), and the AST/ALT ratio of >1.9 accelerated the development of adverse outcomes. In patients with cirrhosis, an AST/ALT ratio > 1.38 increased the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes in all univariables (OR = 1.551 [95% CI = 1.216-1.983], p < 0.001) and multivariable-adjusted analyses (OR = 1.847 [95% CI = 1.361-2.514], p < 0.001), and an elevated AST/ALT ratio (<2.65) accelerated the incidence of 90-day adverse outcomes. An AST/ALT ratio of >1.38 corresponded with a more than 20% incidence of adverse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. Conclusion: The AST/ALT ratio is an independent risk factor for adverse 90-day outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and HBV-associated advanced fibrosis. The cutoff values of the AST/ALT ratio could help clinicians monitor the condition of patients when making clinical decisions.

Retinoic acid signaling pathway in pancreatic stellate cells: Insight into the anti-fibrotic effect and mechanism.

Pancreatic stellate cells (PSCs) are activated following loss of cytoplasmic vitamin A (retinol)-containing lipid droplets, which is a key event in the process of fibrogenesis of chronic pancreatitis (CP) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDCA). PSCs are the major source of cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) that produce stroma to induce PDAC cancer cell growth, invasion, and metastasis. As an active metabolite of retinol, retinoic acid (RA) can regulate target gene expression in PSCs through its nuclear receptor complex (RAR/RXR or RXR/RXR) or transcriptional intermediary factor. Additionally, RA also has extranuclear and non-transcriptional effects. In vitro studies have shown that RA induces PSC deactivation which reduces extracellular matrix production through multiple modes of action, such as inhibiting TßRⅡ, PDGFRß, ß-catenin and Wnt production, downregulating ERK1/2 and JNK phosphorylation and suppressing active TGF-ß1 release. RA alone or in combination with other reagents have been demonstrated to have an effective anti-fibrotic effect on cerulein-induced mouse CP models in vivo studies. Clinical trial data have shown that repurposing all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) as a stromal-targeting agent for human pancreatic cancer is safe and tolerable, suggesting the possibility of using RA for the treatment of CP and PDCA in humans. This review focuses on RA signaling pathways in PSCs and the effects and mechanisms of RA in PSC-mediated fibrogenesis as well as the anti-fibrotic and anti-tumor effects of RA targeting PSCs or CAFs in vitro and in vivo, highlighting the potential therapies of RA against CP and PDAC.

The clinical courses of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and a multi-state model to predict disease evolution.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a highly dynamic syndrome. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical course of patients with HBV-ACLF and to develop a model to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity. METHODS: We enrolled eligible patients from 2 large, multicenter prospective cohorts. The ACLF grade, organ failures, and outcomes were assessed at multiple time points (days 1/4/7/14/21/28). Probabilities for ACLF transitions between these disease states and to death within 28 days were calculated using a multi-state model that used baseline information and updated ACLF status. The model was validated in independent patients. RESULTS: Among all the 445 patients with HBV-ACLF, 76 represented disease progression, 195 had a stable or fluctuating course, 8 with improvement, and the remaining 166 with resolution within 28-day follow-up. New coagulation (63.64%) or renal failure (45.45%) was frequently observed during early progression. Patients with disease progression had a higher incidence of new episodes of ascites [10 (13.16%) vs. 22 (5.96%), p = 0.027] and HE [13(17.11%) vs. 21 (5.69%), p = 0.001], and a significant increase in white blood cell count. The multi-state model represented dynamic areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.71 to 0.84 for predicting all ACLF states and death at 4, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days post-enrollment and from 0.73 to 0.94 for predicting death alone, performing better than traditional prognostic scores. CONCLUSIONS: HBV-ACLF is a highly dynamic syndrome with reversibility. The multi-state model is a tool to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity, which may inform clinical decisions on treatment.

Cell-free DNA testing for early hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis (LC) is the highest risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development worldwide. The efficacy of the guideline-recommended surveillance methods for patients with LC remains unpromising. METHODS: A total of 4367 LCs not previously known to have HCC and 510 HCCs from 16 hospitals across 11 provinces of China were recruited in this multi-center, large-scale, cross-sectional study. Participants were divided into Stage Ⅰ cohort (510 HCCs and 2074 LCs) and Stage Ⅱ cohort (2293 LCs) according to their enrollment time and underwent Tri-phasic CT/enhanced MRI, US, AFP, and cell-free DNA (cfDNA). A screening model called PreCar Score was established based on five features of cfDNA using Stage Ⅰ cohort. Surveillance performance of PreCar Score alone or in combination with US/AFP was evaluated in Stage Ⅱ cohort. FINDINGS: PreCar Score showed a significantly higher sensitivity for the detection of early/very early HCC (Barcelona stage A/0) in contrast to US (sensitivity of 51.32% [95% CI: 39.66%-62.84%] at 95.53% [95% CI: 94.62%-96.38%] specificity for PreCar Score; sensitivity of 23.68% [95% CI: 14.99%-35.07%] at 99.37% [95% CI: 98.91%-99.64%] specificity for US) (P < 0.01, Fisher's exact test). PreCar Score plus US further achieved a higher sensitivity of 60.53% at 95.08% specificity for early/very early HCC screening. INTERPRETATION: Our study developed and validated a cfDNA-based screening tool (PreCar Score) for HCC in cohorts at high risk. The combination of PreCar Score and US can serve as a promising and practical strategy for routine HCC care. FUNDING: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in Acknowledgments section.

Soluble immune checkpoints are elevated in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronically progressive liver disease mediated by an autoimmune response. The aetiology and pathogenesis of PBC are not fully understood and may be related to immune disorders caused by genetic factors and their interaction with environmental factors. Immune checkpoints play an important role in preventing the occurrence of autoimmunity. However, the level of immune checkpoints in PBC has not been reported. Here, we aimed to identify the serum levels of soluble checkpoints in patients with PBC. METHODS: Soluble checkpoint levels were evaluated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 60 patients with PBC and 20 healthy controls (HCs). The expression of immune checkpoints was compared in liver biopsy tissue samples using immunohistochemistry. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUCs) were used to determine the diagnostic performance of soluble checkpoints and laboratory indexes between patients with PBC and HCs and patients with mild and advanced PBC. A logistic regression was performed for advanced PBC. RESULTS: sCD134, sLAG-3, sPD-1, sPD-L1, and sTIM-3 levels were significantly increased in patients with PBC compared with those in healthy controls. Additionally, the levels of sCD134, sPD-1, sPD-L1, and sTIM-3 were positively associated with disease progression. Moreover, soluble checkpoints were correlated with immunoglobulin and liver functions. ROC analyses between patients with PBC and HCs showed that the AUCs of sOX40, sPD-1, and sPD-L1 were 0.967, 0.922, and 0.971, respectively. The optimal cut-off values of sOX40, sPD-1, and sPD-L1 for PBC diagnosis were 89.15, 213.4, and 68, respectively. ROC analyses between mild and advanced patients with PBC revealed that the AUCs of sOX40 and sTIM-3 were 0.767 and 0.765, respectively. The optimal cut-off values for predicting PBC stage ≥ III were 199.45 and 361.5, respectively. In univariate analysis, age, ALB, and sOX40 were associated with advanced PBC. Further, the expression of CD134 and TIM-3 was upregulated in the liver of patients with PBC. CONCLUSIONS: Our study results indicate that the serum titer of soluble checkpoints is increased in Chinese patients with PBC.

Unraveling the Complex Interplay between Epigenetics and Immunity in Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease: A Comprehensive Review.

The mechanisms of immune dysfunction in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) have garnered growing research interest in recent times. Alcohol-mediated immune dysfunction has been implicated as a potential cause of ALD-associated microbial infection and inflammatory response. The immune microenvironment of an organism is essentially a complex network of interactions between immune cells, cytokines, extracellular matrix, and other immune-related molecules. This microenvironment is highly adaptive and responsive to environmental cues. Epigenetic reprogramming of the immune microenvironment has recently emerged as a key driver of ALD progression, particularly in the context of endotoxin tolerance and immune disorders. Although epigenetic modifications are known to play an important role in the regulation of the immune microenvironment in ALD, the specific mechanisms and molecular processes by which this regulation is achieved are yet to be fully understood. This paper aims to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the effects of alcohol consumption on epigenetics, with special focus on summarizing the data on the epigenetic regulatory mechanisms involved in the effects of alcohol consumption on the immune microenvironment. In addition, this paper aims to present a review of the epigenetic modifications involved in different forms of ALD. This review is expected to offer new perspectives for the diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, and prognostic assessment of ALD from an epigenetic perspective.

Activation of AIM2 by hepatitis B virus results in antiviral immunity that suppresses hepatitis C virus during coinfection.

IMPORTANCE: Clinical data suggest that Hepatitis C virus (HCV) levels are generally lower in Hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infected patients, but the mechanism is unknown. Here, we show that HBV, but not HCV, activated absent in melanoma-2. This in turn results in inflammasome-mediated cleavage of pro-IL-18, leading to an innate immune activation cascade that results in increased interferon-γ, suppressing both viruses.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up.

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Severe anemia is associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality in patients hospitalized with cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The relationship between anemia and the outcome of patients with cirrhosis is not completely clear. Therefore, we performed this large-scale epidemiological study to investigate the prevalence and severity of anemia in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation or liver injury and how anemia impacts short-term and long-term outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation (AD) or acute liver injury (ALI) were enrolled in the Chinese AcuTe on CHronic LIver FailurE (CATCH-LIFE) studies, which consisted of two large, multicenter, prospective, observational cohorts between January 2015 and December 2016 and July 2018 and January 2019. We conducted data analysis on the prevalence of anemia and determined the relationship between anemia and prognosis. RESULTS: Among 1979 patients, 1389 (70.2%) had anemia, among whom 599 (41.3%) had mild anemia, 595 (15.8%) had moderate anemia and 195 (2.4%) had severe anemia. A linear association between hemoglobin level and 90-day or 1-year LT-free mortality was shown, and a 10 g/L decrease in hemoglobin level was associated with a 6.8% extra risk of 90-day death and a 5.7% extra risk of 1-year death. Severe anemia was an independent risk factor for 90-day [HR=1.649 (1.100, 2.473), p=0.016] and 1-year LT-free mortality [HR=1.610 (1.159, 2.238), p=0.005]. Multinomial logistic regression analysis further identified that severe anemia was significantly associated with post-28-day mortality but not within-28-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia is common in patients with cirrhosis admitted for acute events. Severe anemia was associated with poor 90-day and 1-year prognoses in these patients.

Vitamin D3 analogue calcipotriol inhibits the profibrotic effects of transforming growth factor- ß1 on pancreatic stellate cells.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the inhibitory effect of vitamin D3 analogue calcipotriol (Cal) on the fibrosis of pancreatic stellate cells (PSCs) induced by TGF-ß1 and the rationality of Cal use in alcoholic chronic pancreatitis (ACP). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Double-labeling immunofluorescence was used for the identification of VDR+PSCs in the pancreas of healthy controls (HC) and ACP patients. Van Gieson staining for examination of collagen fibers. RT-qPCR and Western Blot for determining the mRNAs and proteins of VDR, TGF-ß1 and COL1A1 in the pancreas of ACP or in vitro PSCs. ELISA or LC-MS/MS for detection of serum TGF-ß1 and COL1A1 or 25(OH)D3. The PSC line (RP-2 cell) was used for the determination of proteomic alterations in Cal plus TGF-ß1 versus TGF-ß1 and to examine the effect of VDR gene knockdown. RESULTS: Enhanced expression of VDR was detected in RP-2 cells stimulated with alcohol (ALC) plus Cal versus Cal alone and in PSCs in the pancreas of ACP versus HC. The increased VDR+PSCs were positively correlated with the levels of COL1A1 mRNAs or areas of collagen deposition in the pancreas of ACP. TGF-ß1 was overexpressed in the pancreas of ACP and ALC-treated RP-2 cells while 25(OH)D3 level in serum was significantly decreased in ACP versus HC. Through a VDR-dependent mechanism, Cal antagonized 16 profibrotic proteins in TGF-ß1-induced RP-2 cells that included 7 extracellular matrix components, 2 cytoskeletal proteins, 2 fibrosis-associated factors (RUNX1 and TRAF2), TIMP-1, CCN1, integrin α11, an adhesion scaffold protein (TGFB1i1) and an enzyme mediating TGF-ß1-induced fibrogenesis (ENPP1). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that Cal administration may be a potential antifibrotic strategy via inhibiting TGF-ß1-mediated PSC action during the development of ACP.

Metabolic biomarkers significantly enhance the prediction of HBV-related ACLF occurrence and outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. Chronic hepatitis B is the main cause of ACLF (HBV-ACLF) in China and other Asian countries. To improve disease management and survival for patients with ACLF, we aimed to discover novel biomarkers to enhance HBV-ACLF diagnosis and prognostication. METHODS: We performed a metabolomics profiling of 1,024 plasma samples collected from patients with HBV-related chronic liver disease with acute exacerbation at hospital admission in a multi-year and multi-center prospective study (367 ACLF and 657 non-ACLF). The samples were randomly separated into equal halves as a discovery set and a validation set. We identified metabolites associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and the progression to ACLF within 28 days in the non-ACLF group (pre-ACLF) using statistical analysis and machine learning. We developed diagnostic algorithms in the discovery set and used these to assess the findings in the validation set. RESULTS: ACLF significantly altered the plasma metabolome, particularly in membrane lipid metabolism, steroid hormones, oxidative stress pathways, and energy metabolism. Numerous metabolites were significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and/or pre-ACLF in the non-ACLF group. We developed algorithms for the prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF (area under the curve 0.87 and 0.83 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively) and the diagnosis of pre-ACLF (area under the curve 0.94 and 0.88 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively). To translate our discoveries into practical clinical tests, we developed targeted assays using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. CONCLUSIONS: Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we established tests for HBV-related ACLF with higher accuracy than existing methods. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT02457637 and NCT03641872. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality affecting 25% of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis. Chronic hepatitis B is the main etiology of ACLF in China and other Asian counties. There is currently no effective therapy. Early diagnosis and accurate prognostication are critical for improving clinical outcomes in patients with ACLF. Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we developed liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests with improved accuracy for the early diagnosis and prognostication of HBV-related ACLF. The liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests can be implemented in clinical labs and used by physicians to triage patients with HBV-related ACLF to ensure optimized clinical management.

Copper homeostasis dysregulation promoting cell damage and the association with liver diseases.

ABSTRACT: Copper plays an important role in many metabolic activities in the human body. Copper level in the human body is in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Recent research on copper metabolism has revealed that copper dyshomeostasis can cause cell damage and induce or aggravate some diseases by affecting oxidative stress, proteasome, cuprotosis, and angiogenesis. The liver plays a central role in copper metabolism in the human body. Research conducted in recent years has unraveled the relationship between copper homeostasis and liver diseases. In this paper, we review the available evidence of the mechanism by which copper dyshomeostasis promotes cell damage and the development of liver diseases, and identify the future research priorities.

Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures. METHODS: A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development. RESULTS: We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

New Algorithm Rules Out Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Development within 28 Days from Acute Decompensation of Cirrhosis.

Background and Aims: Approximately 10% of patients with acute decompensated (AD) cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) within 28 days. Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict. Therefore, we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization. Methods: Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF. Organ dysfunction was defined according to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria, and proven bacterial infection was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction. A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm, respectively. A miss rate of <5% was acceptable for the calculating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF. Results: In the derivation cohort (n=673), 46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days. Serum total bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF. AD patients with ≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients [odds ratio=16.581 95% confidence interval: (4.271-64.363), p<0.001]. In the derivation cohort, 67.5% of patients (454/673) had ≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients (0.4%) were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 4.3% (missed/total, 2/46). In the validation cohort, 65.9% of patients (914/1388) had ≤1 organ dysfunction, and four (0.3%) of them were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 3.4% (missed/total, 4/117). Conclusions: AD patients with ≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of <5%.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing. OBJECTIVE: to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD. METHODS: data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges. CONCLUSIONS: our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

The development of a cSMART-based integrated model for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) generally arises from a background of liver cirrhosis (LC). Patients with cirrhosis and suspected HCC are recommended to undergo serum biomarker tests and imaging diagnostic evaluation. However, the performance of routine diagnostic methods in detecting early HCC remains unpromising. METHODS: Here, we conducted a large-scale, multicenter study of 1675 participants including 490 healthy controls, 577 LC patients, and 608 HCC patients from nine clinical centers across nine provinces of China, profiled gene mutation signatures of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) using Circulating Single-Molecule Amplification and Resequencing Technology (cSMART) through detecting 931 mutation sites across 21 genes. RESULTS: An integrated diagnostic model called "Combined method" was developed by combining three mutation sites and three serum biomarkers. Combined method outperformed AFP in the diagnosis of HCC, especially early HCC, with sensitivities of 81.25% for all stages and 66.67% for early HCC, respectively. Importantly, the integrated model exhibited high accuracy in differentiating AFP-negative, AFP-L3-negative, and PIVKA-II-negative HCCs from LCs.

Portal vein thrombosis compromises the performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na) scores in reflecting the clinical outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of scores in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and PVT. METHODS: Post hoc analysis was performed in two prospective cohorts (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872). The correlation between the MELD/MELD-Na score and 90-day liver transplantation (LT)-free mortality was investigated in patients with cirrhosis with and without PVT. RESULTS: In this study, 2826 patients with cirrhosis were included, and 255 (9.02%) had PVT. The cumulative incidence of 90-day LT-free mortality did not significantly differ between patients with and without PVT (log-rank P = 0.0854). MELD [area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), 0.649 vs. 0.842; P = 0.0036] and MELD-Na scores (AUROC, 0.691 vs. 0.851; P = 0.0108) were compared in patients with and without PVT, regarding the prediction of 90-day LT-free mortality. In MELD < 15 and MELD-Na < 20 subgroups, patients with PVT had a higher 90-day LT-free mortality than those without PVT (7.91% vs. 2.64%, log-rank P = 0.0011; 7.14% vs. 3.43%, log-rank P = 0.0223), whereas in MELD ≥ 15 and MELD-Na ≥ 20 subgroups, no significant difference was observed between patients with and without PVT. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis was compromised by PVT. MELD < 15 or MELD-Na < 20 may underestimate the 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with PVT.

Prognosis prediction performs better in patients with non-cirrhosis hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure than those with cirrhosis.

Background: The accurate prediction of the outcome of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is impeded by population heterogeneity. The study aimed to assess the impact of underlying cirrhosis on the performance of clinical prediction models (CPMs). Methods: Using data from two multicenter, prospective cohorts of patients with HBV-ACLF, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit were assessed for CPMs predicting 28-day and 90-day outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and those without, respectively. Results: A total of 919 patients with HBV-ACLF were identified by Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) criteria, including 675 with cirrhosis and 244 without. COSSH-ACLF IIs, COSSH-ACLFs, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), Tongji Prognostic Predictor Model score (TPPMs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs), and MELD-Sodium score (MELD-Nas) were all strong predictors of short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. In contrast to a high model discriminative capacity in ACLF without cirrhosis, each prognostic model represents a marked decline of C-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) in predicting either 28-day or 90-day prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. The hazard analysis identified largely overlapping risk factors of poor outcomes in both subgroups, while serum bilirubin was specifically associated with short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis and blood urea nitrogen in patients without cirrhosis. A subgroup analysis in patients with cirrhosis showed a decline of discrimination of CPMS in those with ascites or infections compared to that in those without. Conclusion: Predicting the short-term outcome of HBV-ACLF by CPMs is optimal in patients without cirrhosis but limited in those with cirrhosis, at least partially due to the complicated ascites or infections.