External validation of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in Hepatitis C Virus cured F3-F4 patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-models have been developed to individualise patient surveillance following sustained viral response (SVR) in Hepatitis C Virus patients. Validation of these models in different cohorts is an important step to incorporate a more personalised risk assessment in clinical practice. We aimed at applying these models to stratify the risk in our patients and potentially determine cost-saving associated with individualised HCC risk-stratification screening strategy. METHODS: Patients with baseline F3-4 fibrosis treated with new oral direct-acting antivirals who had reached a SVR were regularly followed as part of the HCC surveillance strategy. Six models were applied: Pons, aMAP, Ioannou, HCC risk, Alonso and Semmler. Validation of the models was performed based on sensitivity and the proportion of patients labelled as "high risk". RESULTS: After excluding 557 with less than 3 fibrosis, 12 without SVR, 18 with a follow up (FU) <1 year, 17 transplant recipients, 16 lost to FU and 31 with HCC at time of antiviral therapy, our cohort consisted of 349 F3-4 SVR patients. Twenty-three patients (6.6%) developed HCC after a median FU of 5.12 years. The sensitivity of the different models varied between 0.17 (Semmler7noalcohol) and 1 (Alonso A and aMAP). The lowest proportion of high-risk patients corresponded to the Semmler-noalcohol model (5%). Sixty-three and 90% of the Alonso A and aMAP patients, respectively were labelled as high risk. The most reliable HCC risk-model applied to our cohort to predict HCC development is the Alonso model (based on fibrosis stage assessed by liver stiffness measurements or Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) at baseline and after 1 year, and albumin levels at 1 year) with a-100% sensitivity in detecting HCC among those at high risk and 63% labelled as high risk. The application of the model would have saved the cost of 1290 ultrasound no longer being performed in the 37% low-risk group. CONCLUSION: In our cohort, the Alonso A model allows the most reliable reduction in HCC screening resulting in safely stopping life-long monitoring in about a third of F3-F4 patients achieving SVR with DAAs.

Use of chronic medications and risk of severe death due to COVID-19 in hospitalised patients.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential association between chronic exposure to medication and death related to COVID-19. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study that included all patients hospitalised due to COVID-19 from 11 March to 4 June 2020 in our centre. Chronic patient medication was classified by the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification; demographic and clinical data were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of death for each drug exposure; each aOR represents an independent model adjusted by clinical factors related to COVID-19 mortality. RESULTS: The study included 978 patients with a mean (SD) age of 64.5 (17.7) years who were predominantly male (531, 54.3%). Of all 978 patients, 182 (18.61%) died during the follow-up of the study. The most common Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was 0, 4.2% were smokers, 16.7% were obese, 47.4% had hypertension, and 19.4% were diabetic. Most patients (70.8%) were prescribed at least one treatment, 32.5% used >5 treatments, and 8.6% >10. Our data suggest that COVID-19 hospitalised patients taking trimethoprim and analogues, leukotriene receptor antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, aldosterone antagonists, selective immunosuppressants, propulsives, insulins and analogues, and benzodiazepine derivatives have a higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: This study investigated the association between chronic exposure to drugs and the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. Our results have shed some light on the impact of chronic drug exposure on the risk of severe COVID-19; however, further research is needed to increase the understanding about its relevance.

Incidence and risk factors for early readmission after hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from a retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: We aim to assess risk factors related to early readmission in previous hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain. Early readmission was defined as the need for hospitalization within a period of 60 days after discharge. A descriptive analysis of the readmission was performed, including hospitalization outcome. We also performed a multivariate logistic regression to define risk factors for readmission RESULTS: A total of 629 patients were followed up during 60 days with a readmission cumulative incidence of 5.4% (34 out of 629) and an incidence rate of 0.034 person-years. Main reasons for readmission were respiratory worsening (13, 38.2%), decompensation of previous disease (12, 35.3%) or infectious complications (6, 17.6%). Median time to readmission was 12 days (interquartile range 7-33 days). Prior diagnosis of heart failure (OR 4.09; 95% CI 1.35-12.46; p = 0.013), length of stay during index admission greater than 13 days (OR 2.72; 95% CI 1.21-6.12; p = 0.015), treatment with corticosteroids (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.01-5.70; p = 0.049) and developing pulmonary thromboembolism (OR 11.59; 95% CI 2.89-46.48; p = 0.001) were the risk factors statistically associated with early readmission. CONCLUSION: Readmission cumulative incidence was 5.4%. Those patients with prior diagnosis of heart failure, length of stay greater than 13 days, treated with corticosteroids or who developed pulmonary thromboembolism might benefit from close monitoring after being discharged.

COVID-19 in Solid Organ Transplantation: A Matched Retrospective Cohort Study and Evaluation of Immunosuppression Management.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of solid organ transplant (SOT) patients during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic remains unclear. We conducted a matched retrospective cohort study to compare clinical outcomes among SOT recipients with the general population and to assess immunosuppression management. METHODS: Adult SOT recipients with laboratory polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a tertiary-care hospital in Barcelona, Spain, from March 11 to April 25, 2020, were matched to controls (1:4) on the basis of sex, age, and age-adjusted Charlson's Index. Patients were followed for up to 28 days from admission or until censored. Primary endpoint was mortality at 28 days. Secondary endpoints included admission to the intensive care unit and secondary complications. Drug-drug interactions (DDI) between immunosuppressants and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) management medication were collected. RESULTS: Forty-six transplant recipients and 166 control patients were included. Mean (SD) age of transplant recipients and controls was 62.7 (12.6) and 66.0 (12.7) years, 33 (71.7%) and 122 (73.5%) were male, and median (interquartile range) Charlson's Index was 5 (3-7) and 4 (2-7), respectively. Mortality was 37.0% in SOT recipients and 22.9% in controls (P = 0.51). Thirty-three (71.7%) patients underwent transitory discontinuation of immunosuppressants due to potential or confirmed DDI. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, hospitalized SOT recipients with COVID-19 had a trend toward higher mortality compared with controls, although it was not statistically significant, and a notable propensity for DDI.