Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality.

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Low forest productivity associated with increasing drought-tolerant species is compensated by an increase in drought-tolerance richness.

Many temperate forests are changing in composition due to a combination of changes in land-use, management and climate-related disturbances. Previous research has shown that in some regions these changes frequently favour drought-tolerant tree species. However, the effects of these changes in composition on forest functioning (e.g. productivity) are unclear. We studied 25 years of change in individual tree biomass growth, ingrowth and mortality, and community composition and total plot biomass across 2663 permanent forest plots in Catalonia (NE Spain) comprising 85,220 trees of 59 species. We focused on the relationship between community-level forest productivity and drought tolerance (DT), which was estimated using hydraulic traits as well as biogeographic indicators. We found that there was a small increase (1.6%-3.2% on average) in community-mean DT (DTcwm) during the study period, concurrent with a strong increase (12.4%-19.4% on average) in DT richness (DTric; i.e. trait range). Most importantly, we found that the mean DT was negatively related to forest productivity, which was explained because drought-tolerant tree species have lower tree-level growth. In contrast, DT richness was strongly and positively related to forest productivity, probably because it allowed for a more stable production along wet and dry periods. These results suggest a negative impact of ongoing climate change on forest productivity mediated by functional composition shifts (i.e. selection of drought-tolerant species), and a positive effect of increased DT richness as a consequence of land-use legacies. Such a trend towards functional diversification, although temporary, would increase forests' capacity to resist drought and place them in a better position to face the expected change in climate.

Distribution and conservation of species is misestimated if biotic interactions are ignored: the case of the orchid Laelia speciosa.

The geographic distribution of species depends on their relationships with climate and on the biotic interactions of the species. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) mainly consider climatic variables only and may tend to overestimate these distributions, especially for species strongly restricted by biotic interactions. We identified the preference of Laelia speciosa for different host tree species and include this information in an ENM. The effect of habitat loss and climate change on the distribution of these species was also estimated. Although L. speciosa was recorded as epiphyte at six tree species, 96% of the individuals were registered at one single species (Quercus deserticola), which indicated a strong biotic interaction. We included the distribution of this host tree as a biotic variable in the ENM of L. speciosa. The contemporary distribution of L. speciosa is 52,892 km2, which represent 4% of Mexican territory and only 0.6% of the distribution falls within protected areas. Habitat loss rate for L. speciosa during the study period was 0.6% per year. Projections for 2050 and 2070 under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios indicated a severe reduction in its distribution. Climaticaly suitable areas will also shift upwards (200-400 m higher). When estimating the distribution of a species, including its interactions can improve the performance of the ENMs, allowing for more  accurate estimates of the actual distribution of the species, which in turn allows for better conservation strategies.

Long-term response of forest productivity to climate change is mostly driven by change in tree species composition.

Climate change affects ecosystem functioning directly through impacts on plant physiology, resulting in changes of global productivity. However, climate change has also an indirect impact on ecosystems, through changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities. The relative importance of these direct and indirect effects has not been evaluated within a same generic approach yet. Here we took advantage of a novel approach for disentangling these two effects in European temperate forests across a large climatic gradient, through a large simulation-based study using a forest succession model. We first showed that if productivity positively correlates with realized tree species richness under a changed climate, indirect effects appear pivotal to understand the magnitude of climate change impacts on forest productivity. We further detailed how warmer and drier conditions may affect the diversity-productivity relationships (DPRs) of temperate forests in the long term, mostly through effects on species recruitment, ultimately enhancing or preventing complementarity in resource use. Furthermore, losing key species reduced the strength of DPRs more severely in environments that are becoming climatically harsher. By disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning, these findings explain why high-diversity forests are expected to be more resilient to climate change.