Trends of main indicators of leprosy in Brazilian municipalities with high risk of leprosy transmission, 2001-2012.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy incidence has reduced in recent years in Brazil, although the disease still persists as a public health problem in some regions. To investigate the trends of selected leprosy indicators in Brazilian municipalities with high risk of transmission is essential to provide effective control of the disease, yet this area has not been investigated. METHODS: This is an ecological time-series study with multiple groups using Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) data. All 692 municipalities of the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Rondônia, Pará and Maranhão were included. The incidence rates of leprosy were calculated, as well as incidence rates in children under 15 years per 100,000 inhabitants and rates of new cases presenting grade-2 disabilities per 100,000 inhabitants. Joinpoint Regression was used to analyse the time trends of the different indicators studied. The spatial distribution of temporal variations of the indicators in the period was presented. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2012, 176,929 leprosy cases were notified in the area studied, this being equivalent to 34.6 % of total cases in Brazil. In the aggregate of municipalities, there was a reduction in incidence rate of leprosy from 89.10 to 56.98 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants between 2001 and 2012, with a significant reduction between 2003 and 2012 (APC: - 6.2 %, 95 % CI: -7.2 % to -5.2 %). The incidence rate in <15 years also reduced significantly between 2003 and 2012 (APC: -5.6 %; 95 % CI: -7.2 % to -4.1 %). The rate of new cases with grade 2 disability remained stable between 2001 and 2012 (APC: -1.3 %; 95 % CI: -2.6 % to 0.1 %). CONCLUSION: Despite the reduction in the leprosy incidence rate, strategies for controlling this disease need to be enhanced to enable early case detection, especially in hyperendemic municipalities, in order to prevent disability.

Leprosy in Brazil and its association with characteristics of municipalities: ecological study, 2009-2011.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the ecological association between the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the Brazilian municipalities and average leprosy incidence rate in the period 2009-2011. METHODS: An ecological study taking the Brazilian municipalities as its units of analysis. The local empirical Bayes estimation method was used to obtain smoothed incidence rates (SIR) for leprosy. The mean, median, first quartile (Q1) and third quartile (Q3) of the SIR were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants. Hierarchical log-linear negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS: In the period 2009-2011, the average SIR of leprosy in Brazil was 20.2 per 100 000 inhabitants, and the median incidence rate among municipalities was 9.1 per 100 000 inhabitants. Significantly higher adjusted IRR were identified for large municipalities (IRR = 1.67) compared to small municipalities, as well as in municipalities with higher illiteracy rates (IRR = 2.15), more urbanised municipalities (IRR = 1.53), those with greater social inequality as per the Gini index (IRR = 1.26), high percentage of households with inadequate sanitation (IRR = 1.63), higher average number of people per room (IRR = 1.41), high proportions of Family Health Programme coverage (IRR = 1.29), high percentage of household contacts investigated (IRR = 2.30) and those with percentage of cases with grade 2 disability considered to be the medium (IRR = 1.26). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, SIR was significantly associated with municipalities with low socio-economic status. Disease control activities need to be focused on these municipalities, and investments need to be made in improving the population's living conditions.