Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter-event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.

A QBO Cookbook: Sensitivity of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Resolution, Resolved Waves, and Parameterized Gravity Waves.

An intermediate complexity moist general circulation model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to resolution, diffusion, tropical tropospheric waves, and parameterized gravity waves. Finer horizontal resolution is shown to lead to a shorter period, while finer vertical resolution is shown to lead to a longer period and to a larger amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere. More scale-selective diffusion leads to a faster and stronger QBO, while enhancing the sources of tropospheric stationary wave activity leads to a weaker QBO. In terms of parameterized gravity waves, broadening the spectral width of the source function leads to a longer period and a stronger amplitude although the amplitude effect saturates in the mid-stratosphere when the half-width exceeds ∼ 25 m/s. A stronger gravity wave source stress leads to a faster and stronger QBO, and a higher gravity wave launch level leads to a stronger QBO. All of these sensitivities are shown to result from their impact on the resultant wave-driven momentum torque in the tropical stratosphere. Atmospheric models have struggled to accurately represent the QBO, particularly at moderate resolutions ideal for long climate integrations. In particular, capturing the amplitude and penetration of QBO anomalies into the lower stratosphere (which has been shown to be critical for the tropospheric impacts) has proven a challenge. The results provide a recipe to generate and/or improve the simulation of the QBO in an atmospheric model.

Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States.

The Arctic is warming at a rate twice the global average and severe winter weather is reported to be increasing across many heavily populated mid-latitude regions, but there is no agreement on whether a physical link exists between the two phenomena. We use observational analysis to show that a lesser-known stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruption that involves wave reflection and stretching of the SPV is linked with extreme cold across parts of Asia and North America, including the recent February 2021 Texas cold wave, and has been increasing over the satellite era. We then use numerical modeling experiments forced with trends in autumn snow cover and Arctic sea ice to establish a physical link between Arctic change and SPV stretching and related surface impacts.

Planetary, inertia-gravity and Kelvin waves on the f-plane and ß -plane in the presence of a uniform zonal flow.

A linear wave theory of the Rotating Shallow-Water Equations (RSWE) is developed in a channel on the midlatitude f-plane or ß -plane in the presence of a uniform mean zonal flow that is balanced geostrophically by a meridional gradient of the fluid surface height. Here we show that this surface height gradient is a potential vorticity (PV) source that generates Rossby waves even on the f-plane similar to the generation of these waves by PV sources such as the ß -effect, shear of the mean flow and bottom topography. Numerical solutions of the RSWE show that the resulting Rossby, Poincaré and "Kelvin-like" waves differ from their counterparts without mean flow in both their phase speeds and meridional structures. Doppler shifting of the "no mean-flow" phase speeds does not account for the difference in phase speeds, and the meridional structure is often trapped near one of the channel's boundaries and does not oscillate across the channel. A comparison between the phase speeds of Rossby waves of the present theory and those of the Quasi-Geostrophic Shallow-Water (QG-SW) theory shows that the former can be 2.5 times faster than those of the QG-SW theory. The phase speed of "Kelvin-like" waves is modified by the presence of a mean flow compared to the classical gravity wave speed, and furthermore their meridional velocity does not vanish. The gaps between the dispersion curves of adjacent Poincaré modes are not uniform but change with the zonal wave number, and the convexity of the dispersion curves also changes with the zonal wave number. These results have implications for the propagation of Rossby wave packets: QG theory overestimates the zonal group velocity.

Predicting the Downward and Surface Influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Models.

Using the real-time predictions from 11 models, this study analyzes the prediction of the downward propagation and surface impact of the 2018 and 2019 sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These two SSWs differed both in their morphology types (2018: split; 2019: displacement followed by split) and magnitudes (the former being stronger). With a large sample size (>2,200) of multimodel ensemble forecasts, it is revealed that the strength of the SSW is more important than the vortex morphology in determining the magnitude of its downward impact, with strong SSWs more likely to propagate downward than weak SSWs. Therefore, based on the probabilistic forecasts, the observed strong SSW in February 2018 was more likely to have a downward and surface impact than the January 2019 SSW. The relationship between the 10-hPa dominant wave number and the 100-hPa polar cap height (or the Northern Annular Mode) is weak, implying that the dominant wave number might not be the primary factor determining the downward propagation of SSWs in the two analyzed cases. Hence, the high polar cap height (or negative Northern Annular Mode) response in the lower stratosphere and troposphere following the February 2018 SSW is mainly attributed to its strong intensity rather than the split morphology. Further, the 2-m temperature anomaly pattern following the January 2019 SSW is not forecasted due to its weak downward propagation, whereas the 2-m temperature in North Eurasia, Middle East, south China, and eastern United States could be forecasted for the downward propagating February 2018 SSW. However, regional rainfall anomalies are poorly forecasted (both in a deterministic and probabilistic sense) for both SSWs.

Barotropic modes, baroclinic modes and equivalent depths in the atmosphere.

The equivalent depth of a rotating fluid layer determines the phase speed of all free (i.e. unforced) linear waves that propagate in it. The equivalent depth can be estimated from the eigenvalues of a second-order differential equation for the vertical dynamics where the mean temperature profile is a coefficient. The eigenfunctions dictate the vertical structure of the modes. This work combines analytic and numerical solutions of the vertical structure equation for various mean temperature profiles and for various combinations of top and bottom boundary conditions relevant to two atmospheric configurations: troposphere and combined troposphere-stratosphere. Our formulation provides a clear definition of the barotropic mode and the countable baroclinic modes (including the special n = 0 mode). The barotropic mode exists only when the lower boundary condition is the vanishing of the vertical velocity (i.e. when a solid boundary bounds the layer from below) and the equivalent depth of this mode is about 10 km. The n = 0 baroclinic mode does not exist in a layer whose thickness exceeds a threshold value of about 20 km and therefore this mode does not exist in the combined troposphere-stratosphere layer. The upper boundary condition affects the eigenvalues much more so than the details of the temperature profile, as the details of the temperature profile only affect the equivalent depth in the troposphere. Increasing the height of the upper boundary has little effect on the barotropic mode, but strongly influences the phase speed and vertical structure of the baroclinic modes; a general circulation model with a lid at or below the stratopause where, for example, planetary Rossby waves are present will therefore be incapable of correctly simulating the interaction of these waves with the mean flow. The values of the equivalent depth of baroclinic modes are approximately 10% of the actual layer's depth in all realistic cases.

The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: Arctic stratosphere and Europe.

The Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. We consider whether the responses to EN and LN are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign, whether the responses to moderate and extreme events are proportionate, and if the response depends on whether sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in the Eastern Pacific (EP) or Central Pacific (CP). There is no indication of any nonlinearities between EN and LN, though in ~ 15% of the ensemble members the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) frequencies for EN and LN are similar, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for EN and LN, as has occurred over the past ~ 60 years, can occur by chance. The response to extreme EN events is not proportionate to the amplitude of the underlying SST anomalies in spring. EP EN events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1 and decrease zonal wavenumber 2 as compared to CP EN events, however the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric and subpolar surface response is generally little different between EP EN and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events. These differences between EP and CP events and between moderate and extreme EN events only emerge if at least 25 events are composited, however, due to the small signal-to-noise ratio, and hence these differences may be of little practical benefit.

The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors.

Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry-climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO.

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

The mixed Rossby-gravity wave on the spherical Earth.

This work revisits the theory of the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave on a sphere. Three analytic methods are employed in this study: (a) derivation of a simple ad hoc solution corresponding to the MRG wave that reproduces the solutions of Longuet-Higgins and Matsuno in the limits of zero and infinite Lamb's parameter, respectively, while remaining accurate for moderate values of Lamb's parameter, (b) demonstration that westward-propagating waves with phase speed equalling the negative of the gravity-wave speed exist, unlike the equatorial ß-plane, where the zonal velocity associated with such waves is infinite, and (c) approximation of the governing second-order system by Schrödinger eigenvalue equations, which show that the MRG wave corresponds to the branch of the ground-state solutions that connects Rossby waves with zonally symmetric waves. The analytic conclusions are confirmed by comparing them with numerical solutions of the associated second-order equation for zonally propagating waves of the shallow-water equations. We find that the asymptotic solutions obtained by Longuet-Higgins in the limit of infinite Lamb's parameter are not suitable for describing the MRG wave even when Lamb's parameter equals 104. On the other hand, the dispersion relation obtained by Matsuno for the MRG wave on the equatorial ß-plane is accurate for values of Lamb's parameter as small as 16, even though the equatorial ß-plane formally provides an asymptotic limit of the equations on the sphere only in the limit of infinite Lamb's parameter.

Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming.

The recent hiatus in global-mean surface temperature warming was characterized by a Eurasian winter cooling trend, and the cause(s) for this cooling is unclear. Here we show that the observed hiatus in Eurasian warming was associated with a recent trend toward weakened stratospheric polar vortices. Specifically, by calculating the change in Eurasian surface air temperature associated with a given vortex weakening, we demonstrate that the recent trend toward weakened polar vortices reduced the anticipated Eurasian warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Those model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatus. While it is unclear whether the recent weakening of the midwinter stratospheric polar vortex was forced, a properly configured model can simulate substantial deviations of the polar vortex on decadal timescales and hence such hiatus events, implying that similar hiatus events may recur even as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.

Classification of eastward propagating waves on the spherical Earth.

Observational evidence for an equatorial non-dispersive mode propagating at the speed of gravity waves is strong, and while the structure and dispersion relation of such a mode can be accurately described by a wave theory on the equatorial ß-plane, prior theories on the sphere were unable to find such a mode except for particular asymptotic limits of gravity wave phase speeds and/or certain zonal wave numbers. Here, an ad hoc solution of the linearized rotating shallow-water equations (LRSWE) on a sphere is developed, which propagates eastward with phase speed that nearly equals the speed of gravity waves at all zonal wave numbers. The physical interpretation of this mode in the context of other modes that solve the LRSWE is clarified through numerical calculations and through eigenvalue analysis of a Schrödinger eigenvalue equation that approximates the LRSWE. By comparing the meridional amplitude structure and phase speed of the ad hoc mode with those of the lowest gravity mode on a non-rotating sphere we show that at large zonal wave number the former is a rotation-modified counterpart of the latter. We also find that the dispersion relation of the ad hoc mode is identical to the n = 0 eastward propagating inertia-gravity (EIG0) wave on a rotating sphere which is also nearly non-dispersive, so this solution could be classified as both a Kelvin wave and as the EIG0 wave. This is in contrast to Cartesian coordinates where Kelvin waves are a distinct wave solution that supplements the EIG0 mode. Furthermore, the eigenvalue equation for the meridional velocity on the ß-plane can be formally derived as an asymptotic limit (for small (Lamb Number)-1/4) of the corresponding second order equation on a sphere, but this expansion is invalid when the phase speed equals that of gravity waves i.e. for Kelvin waves. Various expressions found in the literature for both Kelvin waves and inertia-gravity waves and which are valid only in certain asymptotic limits (e.g. slow and fast rotation) are compared with the expressions found here for the two wave types.