Factors associated with emergency admission for people dying from cancer in Northern Ireland: an observational data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Many people living with cancer are admitted as an emergency, some just prior to diagnosis and others in their last year of life. Factors associated with accessing emergency care for people dying of cancer are complex and not well understood. This can make it difficult to have the resources and staffing in place to best care for individuals in their last year of life and their families. METHODS: This study uses routinely collected administrative data from people who died of cancer in N. Ireland (NI) during 2015 and explores how personal characteristics (e.g., gender, age) and disease related factors (e.g., tumour site, cancer stage at initial diagnosis) were associated with having an emergency admission to hospital in the last year and the last 28 days of their lives, using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Almost three in four people had at least one emergency admission in the last year of life, and over one in three had an emergency admission the last 28 days of life. Patterns were similar for both time outcomes with males, people with haematological, lung or brain cancers, younger persons, those diagnosed with late-stage cancer, and people diagnosed close to time of death, being significantly more likely to have an emergency admission. While there was no significant association between deprivation and emergency admission rates, those living in urban areas were more likely to have an emergency admission in their last month of life compared to rural dwellers. Late diagnosis was evident with 538 people (12.8% of all deaths from cancer) being diagnosed within one month of death and 1242 (29%) within 3 months of death. CONCLUSION: The high level of emergency admissions points to gaps in routine end-of-life care, and the need for additional training for hospital staff including frontline emergency department (ED) staff who are often the 'gatekeepers' to emergency inpatient care for people living with cancer. The levels of late diagnosis indicate a need for increased population awareness of cancer symptoms and system change to promote earlier diagnosis.

Mortality Among Children And Young People Who Survive Cancer In Northern Ireland.

ABSTRACT: Whilst survival rates for childhood cancers are excellent, it is known that these patients have an increased risk of death from disease recurrence and other causes. We investigate patterns, trends and survival of cancers in children and young adults in N. Ireland. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 21 years (1993-2013) of cancer incidence data including non-malignant brain tumours from the N. Ireland Cancer Registry for persons aged 0-24 years was analysed using Joinpoint regresssion for trend and the Kaplan Meier method for survival analysis up to end 2013 with excess mortality calculated at one and five years after first cancer diagnosis using standardised mortality ratios. RESULTS: 2633 children and young people were diagnosed with cancer, 1386 (52.6%) male and 1247 female with 1139 (43.3%) aged 0-14. While trends increased over time they did not reach statistical significance except in the 15-24 age group for males and females combined. The most common cancers for age 0-14 were brain, eye and central nervous system and leukaemia with skin (including non-melanoma skin) the most common in the 15-24 age group. 59 patients (2.2%) had a record of a second cancer. Survival was high at 90.7% after 1 year, better among females and similar for older and younger groups. Although mortality in children is low overall, there was an excess mortality 24.7% (22-27.5) p<0.001 at one year and 7.3% (5.5-9.2) p<0.001 for those who survived 5 years. Excluding the primary cancer there was an excess mortality for one year survivors, with deaths twice that of the background level (SMR= 2.2 (1.3-3.0)p=0.005 and although one and a half times background levels at 5 years, the excess mortality was not significant 1.5 (0.6-2.3 p=0.269). CONCLUSION: Whilst survival from childhood cancers is excellent, this work in common with larger studies, highlights the need for ongoing monitoring of cancer survivors. Preventable skin cancer was identified as a problem in young adults.

Survival for oesophageal, stomach and small intestine cancers in Europe 1999-2007: Results from EUROCARE-5.

BACKGROUND: European regional variation in cancer survival was reported in the EUROCARE-4 study for patients diagnosed in 1995-1999. Relative survival (RS) estimates are here updated for patients diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus, stomach and small intestine from 2000 to 2007. Trends in RS from 1999-2001 to 2005-2007 are presented to monitor and discuss improvements in patient survival in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: EUROCARE-5 data from 29 countries (87 cancer registries) were used to investigate 1- and 5-year RS. Using registry-specific life-tables stratified by age, gender and calendar year, age-standardised 'complete analysis' RS estimates by country and region were calculated for Northern, Southern, Eastern and Central Europe, and for Ireland and United Kingdom (UK). Survival trends of patients in periods 1999-2001, 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 were investigated using the 'period' RS approach. We computed the 5-year RS conditional on surviving the first year (5-year conditional survival), as the ratio of age-standardised 5-year RS to 1-year RS. RESULTS: Oesophageal cancer 1- and 5-year RS (40% and 12%, respectively) remained poor in Europe. Patient survival was worst in Eastern (8%), Northern (11%) and Southern Europe (10%). Europe-wide, there was a 3% improvement in oesophageal cancer 5-year survival by 2005-2007, with Ireland and the UK (3%), and Central Europe (4%) showing large improvements. Europe-wide, stomach cancer 5-year RS was 25%. Ireland and UK (17%) and Eastern Europe (19%) had the poorest 5-year patient survival. Southern Europe had the best 5-year survival (30%), though only showing an improvement of 2% by 2005-2007. Small intestine cancer 5-year RS for Europe was 48%, with Central Europe having the best (54%), and Ireland and UK the poorest (37%). Five-year patient survival improvement for Europe was 8% by 2005-2007, with Central, Southern and Eastern Europe showing the greatest increases (⩾9%). CONCLUSIONS: Survival for these cancer sites, particularly oesophageal cancer, remains poor in Europe with wide variation. Further investigation into the wide variation, including analysis by histology and anatomical sub-site, will yield insights to better monitor and explain the improvements in survival observed over time.

Validation of the completeness and accuracy of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that inaccuracies in cancer registries are distorting UK survival statistics. This study compared the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) database of living patients, with independent data held by Northern Ireland's General Practitioners (GPs) to compare and validate the recorded diagnoses and dates held by the registry. METHODS: All 387 GP practice managers were invited to participate. 100 practices (25.84%) responded. Comparisons were made for 17,102 patients, equivalent to 29.08% of the living patients (58,798) extracted from the NICR between 1993 and 2010. RESULTS: There were no significant differences (p>0.05) between the responding and nonresponding GP patient profiles for age, marital status or deprivation score. However, the responding GPs included more female patients (p=0.02). NICR data accuracy was high, 0.08% of GP cancer patients (n=15) were not included in registry records and 0.02% (n=2) had a diagnosis date which varied more than 2 weeks from GP records (3 weeks and 5 months). The NICR had recorded two different tumour types and three different tumour statuses (benign vs. malignant) to the GPs. CONCLUSION: This comparison demonstrates a high level of accuracy within the NICR and that the survival statistics based on this data can be relied upon.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and brain tumour risk: a case-control study within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PURPOSE: The aetiology of primary brain tumours is largely unknown; the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or aspirin use and glioma risk has been inconclusive, but few population-based studies with reliable prescribing data have been conducted, and the association with meningioma risk has yet to be assessed. METHODS: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used to assess the association between aspirin and non-aspirin NSAID use and primary brain tumour risk using a nested case-control study design. Conditional logistic regression analysis was performed on 5,052 brain tumour patients aged 16 years and over, diagnosed between 1987 and 2009 and 42,678 controls matched on year of birth, gender and general practice, adjusting for history of allergy and hormone replacement therapy use in the glioma and meningioma models, respectively. RESULTS: In conditional logistic regression analysis, excluding drug use in the year preceding the index date, there was no association with non-aspirin NSAID use (OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.81-1.13) or glioma risk comparing the highest category of daily defined dose to non-users; however, non-aspirin NSAID use was positively associated with meningioma risk (OR 1.35, 95 % CI 1.06-1.71). No association was seen with high- or low-dose aspirin use irrespective of histology. CONCLUSIONS: This large nested case-control study finds no association between aspirin or non-aspirin NSAID use and risk of glioma but a slight increased risk with non-aspirin NSAIDs and meningioma.

Do perinatal and early life exposures influence the risk of malignant melanoma? A Northern Ireland birth cohort analysis.

AIM: Intrauterine, early life and maternal exposures may have important consequences for cancer development in later life. The aim of this study was to examine perinatal and birth characteristics with respect to Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) risk. METHODS: The Northern Ireland Child Health System database was used to examine gestational age adjusted birth weight, infant feeding practices, parental age and socioeconomic factors at birth in relation to CMM risk amongst 447,663 infants delivered between January 1971 and December 1986. Follow-up of histologically verified CMM cases was undertaken from the beginning of 1993 to 31st December 2007. Multivariable adjusted unconditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of CMM risk. RESULTS: A total of 276 CMM cases and 440,336 controls contributed to the final analysis. In reference to normal (gestational age-adjusted) weight babies, those heaviest at birth were twice as likely to develop CMM OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.1-5.1). Inverse associations with CMM risk were observed with younger (<25 years) parental age at birth and both a higher birth order and greater household density OR 0.61 (95% CI 0.37-0.99) and OR 0.56 (95% CI 0.30-1.0) respectively. CONCLUSION: This large study of early onset melanoma supports a positive association with higher birth weight (imperatively gestational age adjusted) and CMM risk which may be related to factors which drive intrauterine foetal growth. Strong inverse associations observed with higher birth order and household density suggest that early-life immune modulation may confer protection; findings which warrant further investigation in prospective analyses.

Oesophageal cancer survival in Europe: a EUROCARE-4 study.

Oesophageal cancer survival is poor with variation across Europe. No pan-European studies of survival differences by oesophageal cancer subtype exist. This study investigates rates and trends in oesophageal cancer survival across Europe. Data for primary malignant oesophageal cancer diagnosed in 1995-1999 and followed up to the end of 2003 was obtained from 66 cancer registries in 24 European countries. Relative survival was calculated using the Hakulinen approach. Staging data were available from 19 registries. Survival by region, gender, age, morphology and stage was investigated. Cohort analysis and the period approach were applied to investigate survival trends from 1988 to 2002 for 31 registries in 17 countries. In total 51,499 cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995-1999 were analysed. Overall, European 1- and 5-year survival rates were 33.4% (95% CI 32.9-33.9%) and 9.8% (95% CI 9.4-10.1%), respectively. Males, older patients and patients with late stage disease had poorer 1- and 5-year relative survival. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma had poorer 1-year relative survival. Regional variation in survival was observed with Central Europe above and Eastern Europe below the European pool. Survival for distant stage disease was similar across Europe while survival rates for localised disease were below the European pool in Eastern and Southern Europe. Improvement in European 1-year relative survival was reported (p=0.016). Oesophageal cancer survival was poor across Europe. Persistent regional variations in 1-year survival point to a need for a high resolution study of diagnostic and treatment practices of oesophageal cancer.

Hospital cancer deaths: late diagnosis and missed opportunity.

OBJECTIVES: To establish factors that influence and contribute to the death of patients with cancer in acute hospitals in Northern Ireland. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical note review. SETTING: 16 acute hospitals, covering 5 Health and Social Care Trusts across Northern Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: 793 adult patients with cancer who died in an acute hospital between July and December 2007 identified through the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. Information was available for 695 (88%). RESULTS: Thee main reasons for acute hospital deaths were uncovered. First, 26.3% of patients were diagnosed with cancer during their last hospital admission. These patients were significantly different from the rest of the sample in being older, not partnered, having more comorbidities and fewer hospital admissions in their last year of life (all p<0.001). Second, patients were very ill with 78.7% admitted as an emergency, requiring medical attention as a result of cancer-related (37.4%) and urgent physical symptoms (33.5%). Third, despite 38.3% of patients specifically requesting discharge to their usual residence, hospice or other hospital, this was not achieved. For 76.3%, this was owing to a deterioration in their medical condition. However for 12.4% there was a lack of a suitable bed, a care package was not in place for 4.9% and 3.0% lacked the required family support. In addition, preferred place of death was only recorded for 41% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Late diagnosis of cancer is a problem which requires further research. Training should be in place to ensure that a patient's preferred place of death is discussed, recorded and made part of routine end of life care. To achieve this, all medical staff should know when a patient is dying. Further research is required to establish what enables patients with cancer to die at home.

Second primary cancers in patients with skin cancer: a population-based study in Northern Ireland.

Among all 14,500 incident cases of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), 6405 squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) and 1839 melanomas reported to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2002, compared with the general population, risk of new primaries after BCC or SCC was increased by 9 and 57%, respectively. The subsequent risk of cancer, overall, was more than double after melanoma.

Malignancy and mortality in a population-based cohort of patients with coeliac disease or "gluten sensitivity".

AIM: To determine the risk of malignancy and mortality in patients with a positive endomysial or anti-gliadin antibody test in Northern Ireland. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study design was used. Laboratory test results used in the diagnosis of coeliac disease were obtained from the Regional Immunology Laboratory, cancer statistics from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and mortality statistics from the General Registrar Office, Northern Ireland. Age standardized incidence ratios of malignant neoplasms and standardized mortality ratios of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 13 338 people had an endomysial antibody and/or an anti-gliadin antibody test in Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1996. There were 490 patients who tested positive for endomysial antibodies and they were assumed to have coeliac disease. There were 1133 patients who tested positive for anti-gliadin antibodies and they were defined as gluten sensitive. Malignant neoplasms were not significantly associated with coeliac disease; however, all-cause mortality was significantly increased following diagnosis. The standardized incidence and mortality ratios for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were increased in coeliac disease patients but did not reach statistical significance. Lung and breast cancer incidence were significantly lower and all-cause mortality, mortality from malignant neoplasms, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and digestive system disorders were significantly higher in gluten sensitive patients compared to the Northern Ireland population. CONCLUSION: Patients with coeliac disease or gluten sensitivity had higher mortality rates than the Northern Ireland population. This association persists more than one year after diagnosis in patients testing positive for anti-gliadin antibodies. Breast cancer is significantly reduced in the cohort of patients with gluten sensitivity.

Addressing a community's cancer cluster concerns.

The felling of a telecommunications mast highlighted a community's concern regarding an alleged cancer cluster of eleven cases in a small rural area of Northern Ireland. At the request of the Local District Council, the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) undertook an investigation. After extensive searching and contact with the community, only 6 of the alleged cases could be identified. Of these six, two did not have cancer and one had a non-malignant tumour. In addition to the three confirmed cancer cases, a search of the NICR database identified a further 17 cancers of mixed types in keeping with the population pattern of cancers. Standardised incidence and mortality rates were within, or lower than, the expected level. The results were presented to the local community at an open meeting. Despite extensive media interest when the issue of the alleged cluster was first raised, the negative findings received only local media attention. This study illustrates the value of an accurate population cancer registry in addressing cancer cluster concerns.

Modelling predictions of cancer deaths in Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: An ageing population has service planners concerned about future levels of disease which are age dependent. Predictions of mortality for colorectal, lung and breast cancers, which account for 30% of cancer cases and 40% of cancers deaths, were calculated for 2010 and 2015, based on trends in death rates and the predicted change in the demography of the Northern Ireland population. METHODS: The U.S. National Cancer Institute's "Joinpoint" program was used to check for structural breaks in the time series of cancer death rates from 1984 to 2004. The prediction models applied to the data allowed variations in trends across age groups to be taken into account. A linear model was used for increasing or constant trends and a log linear model was used where the trend was decreasing. The models assume the number of deaths in each stratum, defined by age-sex and time-period, is Poisson distributed, with the average value determined by a log or linear function. RESULTS: Recent trends in rates of cancers studied were downwards except for female lung. Predictions include decreased colorectal cancer deaths in females and lung cancer deaths in males. In females, lung cancer deaths are predicted to more than double by the year 2015 (473 deaths), based on the 1984 level. Colorectal death rates in males are predicted to drop, but the number of deaths will increase by more than 10%, due to demographic change. Numbers of breast cancer deaths are likely to rise slightly, despite falling age standardised death rates, due to an ageing population. CONCLUSIONS: This work has provided estimates of early future trends, useful to service planners, and highlights the need for tobacco control, to reduce numbers of lung cancer deaths in females. The recently announced control of environmental tobacco legislation is one welcome development which should reduce lung cancer mortality in Northern Ireland.

Improved survival for melanoma in Northern Ireland: a comparison of two 5-year periods (1984-88 and 1994-98).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma has been rising steadily in Caucasian populations for several decades, with a doubling time of 10-14 years. An increase in incidence of about 5% per year has been reported in most Caucasian populations since the early 1960s. OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine the changing incidence of primary cutaneous malignant melanoma in Northern Ireland and to examine changes in survival rates from cutaneous malignant melanoma in two 5-year periods, 1984-88 and 1994-98. METHODS: One thousand three hundred and twenty-six patients with invasive primary cutaneous melanoma were included in the study. RESULTS: The age standardized rate of melanoma rose from 4.3 per 100,000 population per year in men and 8.6 per 100,000 population per year in women to 7.7 and 11.8, respectively, per 100,000 population per year in the 1994-98 period. Overall, the absolute 5-year survival for the 1984-88 period was 71.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 66.9-75.1%] and 77.4% (95% CI 73.4-81.4%) for the 1994-98 period. Women consistently showed better survival at all ages and within almost all categories of thickness of primary tumour. Younger patients of both sexes showed better survival rates. CONCLUSIONS: When survival rates between the 1984-88 and 1994-98 periods were compared using multivariate analysis, we found that patients diagnosed in the second period had a one-third lower risk of dying than those in the earlier period. Much of this reduction was explained by changes in the number of melanomas of thin Breslow depth and ulcerated melanomas.

Ovarian cancer--the need for change in service delivery in Northern Ireland.

This paper provides local data on the provision of services for patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 1996 prior to the reorganisation of cancer services. It documents a service for 140 patients provided by 80 consultant teams and illustrates the need for reorganisation to meet the evidence base already in existence for improvement in survival and will serve as a baseline for future audits in this area.

Lung cancer survival in Northern Ireland.

Lung cancer causes more deaths than any other cancer in Northern Ireland. Survival, and factors which could influence survival, were examined for the 4,458 patients diagnosed with lung cancer from 1992 to 1996. Overall five-year relative survival was low, but better for females (9%) than males (7%). Survival improved each year although this could not be attributed to treatment changes. Survival was better for men under 65 years, than older men (p<0.01), while survival from non-small cell type lung cancer was better than small cell (p<0.001). The proportion of patients having bronchoscopy and CT scan increased over the study period. Although the proportion of patients receiving surgery or radiotherapy remained unchanged over the period there was an increase in the proportion receiving chemotherapy (8.7% vs. 9.4%, P<0.05). Survival rates, although slightly better than in the rest of the United Kingdom, were poorer than in several other countries, including the Republic of Ireland and the United States of America. High mortality rates from lung cancer and, at best, modest improvements in survival, point to the need for increased efforts to reduce levels of lung cancer by tackling the main cause, smoking.

Mortality in Barrett's oesophagus: results from a population based study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Barrett's oesophagus have an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma but this cancer only accounts for a small proportion of deaths in these patients. Other causes of death are reportedly raised in this group. We examined cause specific mortality among individuals in a population based Barrett's oesophagus register. METHODS: We constructed a register of all patients diagnosed with columnar mucosa (including specialised intestinal metaplasia) of the oesophagus within Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1999. Deaths occurring within this cohort until 31 December 2000 were identified and mortality rates were compared with the general population. RESULTS: Overall mortality was not raised in Barrett's patients. During 7413 person years of follow up in 2373 patients there were 253 deaths (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 96 (95% confidence interval (CI) 84-107)). Mortality from oesophageal cancer was raised in patients with specialised intestinal metaplasia (SMR 774 (95% CI 317-1231)) but only 4.7% of patients died from this cancer. Mortality from stroke (SMR 65 (95% CI 37-93)) was significantly lower than the general population while mortality from non-cancerous digestive system diseases was significantly higher (SMR 211 (95% CI 111-311)). Mortality rates from all other causes were similar to those of the general population. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the overall mortality rate in patients with Barrett's oesophagus is closely similar to that of the general population. Oesophageal cancer mortality was raised but is an uncommon cause of death in these patients who also appear to have a reduced risk of death from stroke.