Trees, carbon, and the psychology of landscapes.

Mitigating climate change while safeguarding biodiversity and livelihoods is a major challenge. However, rampant afforestation threatens biodiversity and livelihoods, with questionable benefits to carbon storage. The narrative of landscape degradation is often applied without considering the history of the landscape. While some landscapes are undoubtedly deforested, others existed in open or mosaic states before human intervention, or have been deliberately maintained as such. In psychology, a 'fundamental attribution error' is made when characteristics are attributed without consideration of context or circumstances. We apply this concept to landscapes, and then propose a process that avoids attribution errors by testing a null hypothesis regarding past forest extent, using palaeoecology and other long-term data, alongside ecological and stakeholder knowledge.

Integration of palaeo-and-modern food webs reveal slow changes in a river floodplain wetland ecosystem.

Large rivers, including the Murray River system in southeast Australia, are disturbed by many activities. The arrival of European settlers to Australia by the mid-1800s transformed many floodplain wetlands of the lower Murray River system. River impoundment and flow regulation in the late 1800s and, from the 1930s, resulted in species invasion, and elevated nutrient concentrations causing widespread eutrophication. An integrated palaeoecology, and palaeo-and-modern food web approach, incorporating mixing models, was undertaken to reveal changes in a regulated wetland (i.e. Kings Billabong). The lack of preserved sediment suggests the wetland was naturally intermittent before 1890. After this time, when used as a water retention basin, the wetland experienced net sediment accumulation. Subfossil cladocerans, and δ13C of Daphnia, chironomid, and bulk sediment, all reflected an early productive, likely clear water state and shifts in trophic state following river regulation in the 1930s. Food web mixing models, based on δ13C and δ15N in subfossil and modern Daphnia, fish, and submerged and emergent macrophytes, also indicated a shift in the trophic relationships between fish and Daphnia. By the 1970s, a new state was established but a further significant alteration of nitrogen and carbon sources, and trophic interactions, continued through to the early 2000s. A possible switch from Daphnia as a prey of Australian Smelt could have modified the food web of the wetland by c. 2006. The timing of this change corresponded to the expansion of emergent macrophytes possibly due to landscape level disruptions. The evidence of these changes suggests a need for a broader understanding of the evolution of wetlands for the management of floodplains in the region.

Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity.

In the 12 years since Dudgeon et al. (2006) reviewed major pressures on freshwater ecosystems, the biodiversity crisis in the world's lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams and wetlands has deepened. While lakes, reservoirs and rivers cover only 2.3% of the Earth's surface, these ecosystems host at least 9.5% of the Earth's described animal species. Furthermore, using the World Wide Fund for Nature's Living Planet Index, freshwater population declines (83% between 1970 and 2014) continue to outpace contemporaneous declines in marine or terrestrial systems. The Anthropocene has brought multiple new and varied threats that disproportionately impact freshwater systems. We document 12 emerging threats to freshwater biodiversity that are either entirely new since 2006 or have since intensified: (i) changing climates; (ii) e-commerce and invasions; (iii) infectious diseases; (iv) harmful algal blooms; (v) expanding hydropower; (vi) emerging contaminants; (vii) engineered nanomaterials; (viii) microplastic pollution; (ix) light and noise; (x) freshwater salinisation; (xi) declining calcium; and (xii) cumulative stressors. Effects are evidenced for amphibians, fishes, invertebrates, microbes, plants, turtles and waterbirds, with potential for ecosystem-level changes through bottom-up and top-down processes. In our highly uncertain future, the net effects of these threats raise serious concerns for freshwater ecosystems. However, we also highlight opportunities for conservation gains as a result of novel management tools (e.g. environmental flows, environmental DNA) and specific conservation-oriented actions (e.g. dam removal, habitat protection policies, managed relocation of species) that have been met with varying levels of success. Moving forward, we advocate hybrid approaches that manage fresh waters as crucial ecosystems for human life support as well as essential hotspots of biodiversity and ecological function. Efforts to reverse global trends in freshwater degradation now depend on bridging an immense gap between the aspirations of conservation biologists and the accelerating rate of species endangerment.

Biases encountered in long-term monitoring studies of invertebrates and microflora: Australian examples of protocols, personnel, tools and site location.

Monitoring forms the basis for understanding ecological change. It relies on repeatability of methods to ensure detected changes accurately reflect the effect of environmental drivers. However, operator bias can influence the repeatability of field and laboratory work. We tested this for invertebrates and diatoms in three trials: (1) two operators swept invertebrates from heath vegetation, (2) four operators picked invertebrates from pyrethrum knockdown samples from tree trunk and (3) diatom identifications by eight operators in three laboratories. In each trial, operators were working simultaneously and their training in the field and laboratory was identical. No variation in catch efficiency was found between the two operators of differing experience using a random number of net sweeps to catch invertebrates when sequence, location and size of sweeps were random. Number of individuals and higher taxa collected by four operators from tree trunks varied significantly between operators and with their 'experience ranking'. Diatom identifications made by eight operators were clustered together according to which of three laboratories they belonged. These three tests demonstrated significant potential bias of operators in both field and laboratory. This is the first documented case demonstrating the significant influence of observer bias on results from invertebrate field-based studies. Examples of two long-term trials are also given that illustrate further operator bias. Our results suggest that long-term ecological studies using invertebrates need to be rigorously audited to ensure that operator bias is accounted for during analysis and interpretation. Further, taxonomic harmonisation remains an important step in merging field and laboratory data collected by different operators.

When trends intersect: The challenge of protecting freshwater ecosystems under multiple land use and hydrological intensification scenarios.

Intensification of the use of natural resources is a world-wide trend driven by the increasing demand for water, food, fibre, minerals and energy. These demands are the result of a rising world population, increasing wealth and greater global focus on economic growth. Land use intensification, together with climate change, is also driving intensification of the global hydrological cycle. Both processes will have major socio-economic and ecological implications for global water availability. In this paper we focus on the implications of land use intensification for the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems using Australia as an example. We consider this in the light of intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change, and associated hydrological scenarios that include the occurrence of more intense hydrological events (extreme storms, larger floods and longer droughts). We highlight the importance of managing water quality, the value of providing environmental flows within a watershed framework and the critical role that innovative science and adaptive management must play in developing proactive and robust responses to intensification. We also suggest research priorities to support improved systemic governance, including adaptation planning and management to maximise freshwater biodiversity outcomes while supporting the socio-economic objectives driving land use intensification. Further research priorities include: i) determining the relative contributions of surface water and groundwater in supporting freshwater ecosystems; ii) identifying and protecting freshwater biodiversity hotspots and refugia; iii) improving our capacity to model hydro-ecological relationships and predict ecological outcomes from land use intensification and climate change; iv) developing an understanding of long term ecosystem behaviour; and v) exploring systemic approaches to enhancing governance systems, including planning and management systems affecting freshwater outcomes. A major policy challenge will be the integration of land and water management, which increasingly are being considered within different policy frameworks.

Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence.

The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these concepts in future research and management applications should include evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Explicit consideration should also be given to whether observed temporal dynamics represent variation along a continuum rather than categorically different states.