Disturbance of a rare seabird by ship-based tourism in a marine protected area.

Managers of marine protected areas (MPAs) must often seek ways to allow for visitation while minimizing impacts to the resources they are intended to protect. Using shipboard observers, we quantified the "zone of disturbance" for Kittlitz's and marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus brevirostris and B. marmoratus) exposed to large cruise ships traveling through Glacier Bay National Park, one of the largest MPAs in North America. In the upper reaches of Glacier Bay, where Kittlitz's murrelets predominated, binary logistic regression models predicted that 61% of all murrelets within 850 m perpendicular distance of a cruise ship were disturbed (defined as flushing or diving), whereas in the lower reaches, where marbled murrelets predominated, this percentage increased to 72%. Using survival analysis, murrelets in both reaches were found to react at greater distances when ships approached indirectly, presumably because of the ship's larger profile, suggesting murrelets responded to visual rather than audio cues. No management-relevant covariates (e.g., ship velocity, route distance from shore) were found to be important predictors of disturbance, as distance from ship to murrelet accounted for > 90% of the explained variation in murrelet response. Utilizing previously published murrelet density estimates from Glacier Bay, and applying an average empirical disturbance probability (68%) out to 850 m from a cruise ship's typical route, we estimated that a minimum of 9.8-19.6% of all murrelets in Glacier Bay are disturbed per ship entry. Whether these disturbance levels are inconsistent with Park management objectives, which include conserving wildlife as well as providing opportunities for visitation, depends in large part on whether disturbance events caused by cruise ships have impacts on murrelet fitness, which remains uncertain.

Optimism and challenge for science-based conservation of migratory species in and out of U.S. National Parks.

Public agencies sometimes seek outside guidance when capacity to achieve their mission is limited. Through a cooperative agreement and collaborations with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), we developed recommendations for a conservation program for migratory species. Although NPS manages ∼ 36 million hectares of land and water in 401 units, there is no centralized program to conserve wild animals reliant on NPS units that also migrate hundreds to thousands of kilometers beyond parks. Migrations are imperiled by habitat destruction, unsustainable harvest, climate change, and other impediments. A successful program to counter these challenges requires public support, national and international outreach, and flourishing migrant populations. We recommended two initial steps. First, in the short term, launch or build on a suite of projects for high-profile migratory species that can serve as proof to demonstrate the centrality of NPS units to conservation at different scales. Second, over the longer term, build new capacity to conserve migratory species. Capacity building will entail increasing the limited knowledge among park staff about how and where species or populations migrate, conditions that enable migration, and identifying species' needs and resolving them both within and beyond parks. Building capacity will also require ensuring that park superintendents and staff at all levels support conservation beyond statutory borders. Until additional diverse stakeholders and a broader American public realize what can be lost and do more to protect it and engage more with land management agencies to implement actions that facilitate conservation, long distance migrations are increasingly likely to become phenomena of the past.

Post-breeding season migrations of a top predator, the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii), from a marine protected area in Alaska.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being used as a conservation tool for highly mobile marine vertebrates and the focus is typically on protecting breeding areas where individuals are aggregated seasonally. Yet movements during the non-breeding season can overlap with threats that may be equally as important to population dynamics. Thus understanding habitat use and movements of species during the non-breeding periods is critical for conservation. Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, is one of the largest marine mammal protected areas in the world and has the only enforceable protection measures for reducing disturbance to harbor seals in the United States. Yet harbor seals have declined by up to 11.5%/year from 1992 to 2009. We used satellite-linked transmitters that were attached to 37 female harbor seals to quantify the post-breeding season migrations of seals and the amount of time that seals spent inside vs. outside of the MPA of Glacier Bay. Harbor seals traveled extensively beyond the boundaries of the MPA of Glacier Bay during the post-breeding season, encompassing an area (25,325 km(2)) significantly larger than that used by seals during the breeding season (8,125 km(2)). These movements included the longest migration yet recorded for a harbor seal (3,411 km) and extended use (up to 23 days) of pelagic areas by some seals. Although the collective utilization distribution of harbor seals during the post-breeding season was quite expansive, there was a substantial degree of individual variability in the percentage of days that seals spent in the MPA. Nevertheless, harbor seals demonstrated a high degree of inter-annual site fidelity (93%) to Glacier Bay the following breeding season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the threats that seals may interact with outside of the boundaries of the MPA of Glacier Bay for understanding population dynamics of seals in Glacier Bay.

Assay dependence of Brucella antibody prevalence in a declining Alaskan harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) population.

BACKGROUND: Brucella is a group of bacteria that causes brucellosis, which can affect population health and reproductive success in many marine mammals. We investigated the serological prevalence of antibodies against Brucella bacteria in a declining harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. RESULTS: Prevalence ranged from 16 to 74 percent for those tests detecting antibodies, indicating that harbor seals in Glacier Bay have been exposed to Brucella bacteria. However, the actual level of serological prevalence could not be determined because results were strongly assay-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: This study reinforces the need to carefully consider assay choice when comparing different studies on the prevalence of anti-Brucella antibodies in pinnipeds and further highlights the need for species- or taxon-specific assay validation for both pathogen and host species.

Spatial pattern analysis of cruise ship-humpback whale interactions in and near Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska.

Understanding interactions between large ships and large whales is important to estimate risks posed to whales by ships. The coastal waters of Alaska are a summer feeding area for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as well as a prominent destination for large cruise ships. Lethal collisions between cruise ships and humpback whales have occurred throughout Alaska, including in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP). Although the National Park Service (NPS) establishes quotas and operating requirements for cruise ships within GBNP in part to minimize ship-whale collisions, no study has quantified ship-whale interactions in the park or in state waters where ship traffic is unregulated. In 2008 and 2009, an observer was placed on ships during 49 different cruises that included entry into GBNP to record distance and bearing of whales that surfaced within 1 km of the ship's bow. A relative coordinate system was developed in ArcGIS to model the frequency of whale surface events using kernel density. A total of 514 whale surface events were recorded. Although ship-whale interactions were common within GBNP, whales frequently surfaced in front of the bow in waters immediately adjacent to the park (west Icy Strait) where cruise ship traffic is not regulated by the NPS. When ships transited at speeds >13 knots, whales frequently surfaced closer to the ship's midline and ship's bow in contrast to speeds slower than 13 knots. Our findings confirm that ship speed is an effective mitigation measure for protecting whales and should be applied to other areas where ship-whale interactions are common.

Serologic surveillance of pathogens in a declining harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, USA and a reference site.

The harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, has declined by over 70% since 1992. The reasons for this decline are not known. We examined serum antibodies and feces for evidence of exposure to multiple pathogens in this population. We also studied harbor seals from a reference site on Kodiak Island. In 2007, we found antibodies against Leptospira spp. in 31% of specimens from harbor seals in Glacier Bay, but no detectable serum antibodies in samples from Kodiak. In 2008, no samples had detectable antibodies against Leptospira spp. No serum antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii, morbilliviruses, or presence of Cryptosporidium in fecal samples were detected. However, Giardia was found in 6% of the fecal samples from Glacier Bay. Our results indicate that the harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park could be immunologically naïve to distemper viruses and therefore vulnerable to these pathogens. Given the relatively low prevalence of antibodies and low titers, pathogens likely are not the reason for the harbor seal decline in Glacier Bay.

A Bayesian approach for understanding the role of ship speed in whale-ship encounters.

Mandatory or voluntary reductions in ship speed are a common management strategy for reducing deleterious encounters between large ships and large whales. This has produced strong resistance from shipping and marine transportation entities, in part because very few studies have empirically demonstrated whether or to what degree ship speed influences ship-whale encounters. Here we present the results of four years of humpback whale sightings made by observers aboard cruise ships in Alaska, representing 380 cruises and 891 ship-whale encounters. Encounters occurred at distances from 21 m to 1000 m (x = 567 m) with 61 encounters (7%) occurring between 200 m and 100 m, and 19 encounters (2%) within 100 m. Encounters were spatially aggregated and highly variable across all ship speeds. Nevertheless a Bayesian change-point model found that the relationship between whale distance and ship speed changed at 11.8 knots (6.1 m/s) with whales encountering ships, on average, 114 m closer when ship speeds were above 11.8 knots. Binning encounter distances by 1-knot speed increments revealed a clear decrease in encounter distance with increasing ship speed over the range of 7-17 knots (3.6-8.7 m/s). Our results are the first to demonstrate that speed influences the encounter distance between large ships and large whales. Assuming that the closer ships come to whales the more likely they are to be struck, our results suggest that reduced ship speed may be an effective management action in reducing the probability of a collision.

Background matching and color-change plasticity in colonizing freshwater sculpin populations following rapid deglaciation.

Anthropogenic-induced change is forcing organisms to shift their distributions and colonize novel habitats at an increasing rate, which leads to complex interactions among evolutionary processes. Coastrange sculpin (Cottus aleuticus) have colonized recently deglaciated streams of Glacier Bay in Alaska within the last 220 years. We examined divergence among populations in background matching coloration and tested the hypothesis that observed variation is due to morphological color plasticity. To examine how color-change plasticity has interacted with other evolutionary processes, we also determined the influence of colonization on neutral genetic diversity. We observed clinal variation in substrate-matching fish color along the chronological continuum of streams. Microsatellites provided little evidence of genetic subdivision among sculpin populations. Fish color was significantly correlated to substrate color, but was not correlated to neutral population genetic structure. Furthermore, a laboratory experiment revealed that morphological color plasticity could explain much, but not all, of the observed fish color divergence. Our study demonstrates that sculpin in Glacier Bay have colonized and adapted to recently deglaciated habitat and suggests that color change plasticity has aided in this process. This research, therefore, highlights the important role phenotypic plasticity may play in the adaptation of species to rapid climate change.

Understanding abundance patterns of a declining seabird: implications for monitoring.

The Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare, non-colonial seabird often associated with tidewater glaciers and a recent candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated abundance of Kittlitz's Murrelets across space and time from at-sea surveys along the coast of Alaska (USA) and then used these data to develop spatial models to describe abundance patterns and identify environmental factors affecting abundance. Over a five-week period in the summer of 2005, we recorded 794 Kittlitz's Murrelets, 16 Marbled Murrelets (B. marmoratus), and 70 unidentified murrelets. The overall population estimate (N, mean +/- SE) during the peak period (3-9 July) was 1317 +/- 294 birds, decreasing to 68 +/- 37 by the last survey period (31 July-6 August). Density of Kittlitz's Murrelets was highest in pelagic waters of Taan Fjord (18.6 +/- 7.8 birds/km2, mean +/- SE) during 10-16 July. Spatial models identified consistent "hotspots" of Kittlitz's Murrelets, including several small areas where high densities of murrelets were found throughout the survey period. Of the explanatory variables that we evaluated, tidal current strength influenced murrelet abundance most consistently, with higher abundance associated with strong tidal currents. Simulations based on the empirically derived estimates of variation demonstrated that spatial variation strongly influenced power to detect trend, although power changed little across the threefold difference in the coefficient of variation on detection probability. We include recommendations for monitoring Kittlitz's Murrelets (or other marine species) when there is a high degree of uncertainty about factors affecting abundance, especially spatial variability.