A nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach for ecological data: Using temporal dynamics of vegetation moisture as an example.

Increasingly, often ecologist collects data with nonlinear trends, heterogeneous variances, temporal correlation, and hierarchical structure. Nonlinear mixed-effects models offer a flexible approach to such data, but the estimation and interpretation of these models present challenges, partly associated with the lack of worked examples in the ecological literature.We illustrate the nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach using temporal dynamics of vegetation moisture with field data from northwestern Patagonia. This is a Mediterranean-type climate region where modeling temporal changes in live fuel moisture content are conceptually relevant (ecological theory) and have practical implications (fire management). We used this approach to answer whether moisture dynamics varies among functional groups and aridity conditions, and compared it with other simpler statistical models. The modeling process is set out "step-by-step": We start translating the ideas about the system dynamics to a statistical model, which is made increasingly complex in order to include different sources of variability and correlation structures. We provide guidelines and R scripts (including a new self-starting function) that make data analyses reproducible. We also explain how to extract the parameter estimates from the R output.Our modeling approach suggests moisture dynamic to vary between grasses and shrubs, and between grasses facing different aridity conditions. Compared to more classical models, the nonlinear mixed-effects model showed greater goodness of fit and met statistical assumptions. While the mixed-effects approach accounts for spatial nesting, temporal dependence, and variance heterogeneity; the nonlinear function allowed to model the seasonal pattern.Parameters of the nonlinear mixed-effects model reflected relevant ecological processes. From an applied perspective, the model could forecast the time when fuel moisture becomes critical to fire occurrence. Due to the lack of worked examples for nonlinear mixed-effects models in the literature, our modeling approach could be useful to diverse ecologists dealing with complex data.

Dwarf shrub facilitates seedling recruitment and plant diversity in semiarid grasslands.

The facilitation mechanism maintains ecosystem richness by increasing seedling recruitment. Overgrazed grasslands of northwestern Patagonia are invaded by shrubs that could promote the seedling recruitment of forage species. We investigated the role of Acaena splendens shrubs on the maintenance of diversity and its usefulness as a nurse shrub in the recruitment of Festuca pallescens, a grass of high forage value present with a low cover in degraded grasslands. To test the performance of A.splendens as a nurse plant in non-degraded grassland, we recorded the species richness four years inside of A. splendens senescent shrubs and in gaps among dominant tussock grasses. Species were grouped in four functional groups: annual and biannual herbs and grasses, perennial herbs, perennial grasses and shrubs. To test the usefulness of A. splendens in the restoration of degraded grassland, we monitored the seedling emergence and survival of F. pallescens inside A. splendens and in gaps. We related seedling survival to meteorological and microenvironmental conditions. Species richness was higher in Acaena nurse plants than in gaps. The frequency of functional groups, with exception of annual and biannual herbs and grasses, were higher in Acaena than in gaps. Seedling emergence and survival of F. pallescens were higher in Acaena, but the seedlings died in summer in both microsites. Mean maximum temperature was higher and mean minimum humidity lower in gaps than in Acaena during spring. However, the spring-summer season in which we monitored F. pallescens survival, was exceptionally dry and hot, affecting the survival of F. pallescens seedlings. Our results show that A. splendens act as a nurse species increasing the richness in the non-degraded grassland and facilitating the seedling recruitment of an important forage species in the degraded grassland. Nevertheless, the facilitation mechanism will fail in drought conditions, indicating that this restoration tool is limited by climate.

From leaves to landscape: A multiscale approach to assess fire hazard in wildland-urban interface areas.

The overlapping zone between urbanization and wildland vegetation, known as the wildland urban interface (WUI), is often at high risk of wildfire. Human activities increase the likelihood of wildfires, which can have disastrous consequences for property and land use, and can pose a serious threat to lives. Fire hazard assessments depend strongly on the spatial scale of analysis. We assessed the fire hazard in a WUI area of a Patagonian city by working at three scales: landscape, community and species. Fire is a complex phenomenon, so we used a large number of variables that correlate a priori with the fire hazard. Consequently, we analyzed environmental variables together with fuel load and leaf flammability variables and integrated all the information in a fire hazard map with four fire hazard categories. The Nothofagus dombeyi forest had the highest fire hazard while grasslands had the lowest. Our work highlights the vulnerability of the wildland-urban interface to fire in this region and our suggested methodology could be applied in other wildland-urban interface areas. Particularly in high hazard areas, our work could help in spatial delimitation policies, urban planning and development of plans for the protection of human lives and assets.

Wildland-urban interface fires and socioeconomic conditions: a case study of a northwestern Patagonia city.

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

Ecological engineering by a native leaf-cutting ant increases the performance of exotic plant species.

Numerous mechanisms are proposed to explain why exotic plants successfully invade natural communities. However, the positive effects of native engineers on exotic plant species have received less consideration. We tested whether the nutrient-rich soil patches created by a native ecological engineer (refuse dumps from the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex lobicornis) increase the performance of exotic more than native plants. In a greenhouse experiment, individuals from several native and exotic species were planted in pots with refuse dumps (RDs) and non-nest soils (NNSs). Total plant biomass and foliar nutrient content were measured at the end of the experiment. We also estimated the cover of exotic and native plant species in external RDs from 54 field ant nests and adjacent areas. Greenhouse plants showed more biomass and foliar nutrient content in RDs than in NNS pots. Nevertheless, differences in the final mean biomass among RD and NNS plants were especially great in exotics. Accordingly, the cover of exotic plants was higher in field RDs than in adjacent, non-nest soils. Our results demonstrated that plants can benefit from the enhanced nutrient content of ant RDs, and that A. lobicornis acts as an ecosystem engineer, creating a substrate that especially increases the performance of exotics. This supports the fluctuating resource hypothesis as a mechanism to promote biological invasions, and illustrates how this hypothesis may operate in nature. Since ant nests and exotic plants are more common in disturbed than in pristine environments, the role of ant nests in promoting biological invasions might be of particular interest. Proposals including the use of engineer species to restore disturbed habitats should be planned with caution because of their potential role in promoting invasions.

Leaf-cutting ant nests near roads increase fitness of exotic plant species in natural protected areas.

Understanding the mechanisms that promote the invasion of natural protected areas by exotic plants is a central concern for ecology. We demonstrated that nests of the leaf-cutting ant, Acromyrmex lobicornis, near roadsides promote the abundance, growth and reproduction of two exotic plant species, Carduus nutans and Onopordum acanthium, in a national park in northern Patagonia, Argentina and determine the mechanisms that produce these effects. Refuse dumps (RDs) from ant nests have a higher nutrient content than nearby non-nest soils (NNSs); foliar nutrient content and their 15N isotopic signature strongly suggest that plants reach and use these nutrients. Both species of exotic plants in RDs were 50-600% more abundant; seedlings had 100-1000% more foliar area and root and leaf biomass; and adult plants produced 100-300% more seeds than nearby NNS plants. Plants can thus gain access to and benefit from the nutrient content of ant RD, supporting the hypotheses that enhanced resource availability promotes exotic plant performance that could increase the likelihood of biological invasions. The two exotics produce an estimated of 8385000 more seeds ha(-1) in areas with ant nests compared with areas without; this exceptional increase in seed production represents a potential threat to nearby non-invaded communities. We propose several management strategies to mitigate this threat. Removal efforts of exotics should be focused on ant RDs, where plants are denser and represent a higher source of propagules.

Hierbas como una fuente para consumo humano: una comparación entre América Latina de zona tropical y templada / Weeds as a source for human consumption: a comparison between tropical and temperate Latin America

Weeds abound in urban and agricultural environments. Depending on region and site, up to 66 per cent of weed species are edible, and may constitute and additional food source for humans. Based on 400 samples, 1/4m2 each, collected in tropical areas (e.g., roadsides, urban vacant lost, streets, sugar cane and coffee plantations in Coatepec, Mexico), average figures of edible fresh biomass vary between 1277 and 3582 kg/ha. A similar survey performed in a temperate area (739 samples in Bariloche, Argentina) showed mean values between 287 and 2939 kg/ha. A total of 43 species were sampled in Coatepec and 32 species in Bariloche. The general means were 2.1 and 1.3 tons/ha, respectively. At a greater geographic scale, a comparison between Mexican and Argentine weeds shows that, proportionately, the food parts vary a little between regions. In general, from higher to lower, the order of uses goes from leaves, seeds, roots, fruits, herbals, flowers and condiments. Edible roots (including bulbs and rhizomes) appear to be more common among perennials than among annuals. Keys words: Argentina, Bariloche, Coatepec, edible weeds, food plants, gathering, Mexico, Patagonia, urban flora