Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

Measuring the performance of Antarctic Treaty decision-making.

Agreements reached at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs) are among the primary means for addressing Antarctic conservation and environmental protection issues. However, according to contemporary scholars, Antarctic Treaty decision-making is becoming increasingly unresponsive to the rising environmental challenges in the region. We assessed the performance of Antarctic Treaty decision-making by measuring the rate and diversity of decision-making over the last 6 decades. To measure the rate, we counted the number of inputs and outputs of ATCMs and calculated the time taken for legally binding outputs to enter into force. To measure diversity, we calculated the range of topics addressed by the inputs and outputs of ATCMs. The average number of agreements reached per ATCM increased from 1961 to 2022. Although the diversity of Antarctic topics discussed at ATCMs remained consistently high, the diversity of topics on which legally binding agreements were adopted declined significantly. Antarctic issues-including those of highest priority-are now almost entirely dealt with through nonbinding, soft-law agreements. It is plausible that this move away from binding decisions reflects a dynamic governance institution evolving to respond to new pressures. However, we suggest that the change reveals a concerning shift in decision-making behavior and performance, unique to the treaty's history. Soft law is beneficial in some cases, but its overuse diminishes accountability and transparency, significantly reducing the parties' abilities to understand and measure their performance, including the outcomes and impacts of decisions. Although the rate and diversity of ATCM inputs and outputs provide only a partial view of decision-making performance, the exploration of these metrics provides a foundation for asking essential questions about the impacts of Antarctic Treaty governance on the region's environmental protection and conservation.

Medida del desempeño de las decisiones del Tratado Antártico Resumen Los acuerdos logrados en las Reuniones Consultivas del Tratado Antártico (RCTA) son uno de los principales medios para abordar las cuestiones de conservación y protección ambiental de la Antártida. Sin embargo, según los académicos contemporáneos, la toma de decisiones del Tratado Antártico es cada vez menos receptiva a los crecientes retos ambientales de la región. Evaluamos el rendimiento de las decisiones del Tratado Antártico con la medida del ritmo y la diversidad de la toma de decisiones en las últimas seis décadas. Para medir el ritmo, contamos el número de entradas y salidas de las RCTA y calculamos el tiempo que tardan en entrar en vigor los resultados con vinculación jurídica. Para medir la diversidad, calculamos la gama de temas abordados por las entradas y salidas de las RCTA. El número medio de acuerdos alcanzados por cada RCTA aumentó de 1961 a 2022. Sin embargo, mientras que la diversidad de temas antárticos debatidos en las RCTA se mantuvo constantemente alta, la diversidad de temas sobre los que se adoptaron acuerdos con vinculación jurídica disminuyó significativamente. Las cuestiones antárticas ­incluidas las de máxima prioridad­ se abordan ahora casi en su totalidad mediante acuerdos no vinculantes y de derecho indicativo. Es plausible que este alejamiento de las decisiones vinculantes refleje una institución de gestión dinámica que evoluciona para responder a nuevas presiones. Sin embargo, sugerimos que el cambio revela una modificación preocupante en el comportamiento y los resultados de la toma de decisiones, único en la historia del tratado. El derecho indicativo es benéfico en algunos casos, pero su uso excesivo disminuye la responsabilidad y la transparencia, lo que reduce significativamente la capacidad de las partes para comprender y medir su rendimiento, incluidos los resultados y los impactos de las decisiones. Aunque la tasa y la diversidad de las entradas y salidas de las RCTA sólo proporcionan una visión parcial del rendimiento de la toma de decisiones, la exploración de estas métricas proporciona una base para plantear preguntas esenciales sobre los impactos de la gestión del Tratado Antártico para la protección y conservación ambiental de la región.

A multispecies hierarchical model to integrate count and distance-sampling data.

Integrated community models-an emerging framework in which multiple data sources for multiple species are analyzed simultaneously-offer opportunities to expand inferences beyond the single-species and single-data-source approaches common in ecology. We developed a novel integrated community model that combines distance sampling and single-visit count data; within the model, information is shared among data sources (via a joint likelihood) and species (via a random-effects structure) to estimate abundance patterns across a community. Parameters relating to abundance are shared between data sources, and the model can specify either shared or separate observation processes for each data source. Simulations demonstrated that the model provided unbiased estimates of abundance and detection parameters even when detection probabilities varied between the data types. The integrated community model also provided more accurate and more precise parameter estimates than alternative single-species and single-data-source models in many instances. We applied the model to a community of 11 herbivore species in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya, and found considerable interspecific variation in response to local wildlife management practices: Five species showed higher abundances in a region with passive conservation enforcement (median across species: 4.5× higher), three species showed higher abundances in a region with active conservation enforcement (median: 3.9× higher), and the remaining three species showed no abundance differences between the two regions. Furthermore, the community average of abundance was slightly higher in the region with active conservation enforcement but not definitively so (posterior mean: higher by 0.20 animals; 95% credible interval: 1.43 fewer animals, 1.86 more animals). Our integrated community modeling framework has the potential to expand the scope of inference over space, time, and levels of biological organization, but practitioners should carefully evaluate whether model assumptions are met in their systems and whether data integration is valuable for their applications.

A century of statistical Ecology.

As data and computing power have surged in recent decades, statistical modeling has become an important tool for understanding ecological patterns and processes. Statistical modeling in ecology faces two major challenges. First, ecological data may not conform to traditional methods, and second, professional ecologists often do not receive extensive statistical training. In response to these challenges, the journal Ecology has published many innovative statistical ecology papers that introduced novel modeling methods and provided accessible guides to statistical best practices. In this paper, we reflect on Ecology's history and its role in the emergence of the subdiscipline of statistical ecology, which we define as the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability, and empirical data. We showcase 36 influential statistical ecology papers that have been published in Ecology over the last century and, in so doing, comment on the evolution of the field. As data and computing power continue to increase, we anticipate continued growth in statistical ecology to tackle complex analyses and an expanding role for Ecology to publish innovative and influential papers, advancing the discipline and guiding practicing ecologists.

Taming a 'fuzzy beast'? Stakeholder perspectives on Antarctic science-policy knowledge exchange practices in New Zealand.

Antarctic environmental change is accelerating with significant regional and global consequences making it critically important for Antarctic research knowledge to inform relevant policymaking forums. A key challenge is maximising the utility of evidence in decision-making, to which scholars have responded by shifting away from linear science-policy arrangements towards co-production alternatives. As an Antarctic Treaty Consultative Party (ATCP), New Zealand (NZ) is responsible for facilitating knowledge exchange (KE) among Antarctic science and policy actors at national and international levels. However, at present, we have few metrics for assessing the success of science-policy dialogues. Furthermore, studies on the Antarctic science-policy interface have so far primarily focused on the international perspective. This paper is the first to examine domestic stakeholder perspectives regarding Antarctic KE using NZ as a case study. We report on the findings of two workshops involving over 60 NZ Antarctic stakeholders in 2021 that aimed to explore the various elements of NZ's Antarctic science-policy interface and identify barriers or drivers for success, including future opportunities. Our results indicate that there is a desire to shift away from the current linear approach towards a more collaborative model. To achieve this, stakeholders share an understanding that KE practices need to become more equitable, inclusive and diverse, and that the policy community needs to play a more proactive and leading role. Described as a 'fuzzy beast', the NZ Antarctic science-policy interface is complex. This study contributes to our understanding of Antarctic KE practices by offering new guidance on several key elements that should be considered in any attempts to understand or improve future KE practices in NZ or within the domestic settings of other ATCPs interested in fostering science-policy success.

Daily activity timing in the Anthropocene.

Animals are facing novel 'timescapes' in which the stimuli entraining their daily activity patterns no longer match historical conditions due to anthropogenic disturbance. However, the ecological effects (e.g., altered physiology, species interactions) of novel activity timing are virtually unknown. We reviewed 1328 studies and found relatively few focusing on anthropogenic effects on activity timing. We suggest three hypotheses to stimulate future research: (i) activity-timing mismatches determine ecological effects, (ii) duration and timing of timescape modification influence effects, and (iii) consequences of altered activity timing vary biogeographically due to broad-scale variation in factors compressing timescapes. The continued growth of sampling technologies promises to facilitate the study of the consequences of altered activity timing, with emerging applications for biodiversity conservation.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

Human disturbance compresses the spatiotemporal niche.

Human disturbance may fundamentally alter the way that species interact, a prospect that remains poorly understood. We investigated whether anthropogenic landscape modification increases or decreases co-occurrence-a prerequisite for species interactions-within wildlife communities. Using 4 y of data from >2,000 camera traps across a human disturbance gradient in Wisconsin, USA, we considered 74 species pairs (classifying pairs as low, medium, or high antagonism to account for different interaction types) and used the time between successive detections of pairs as a measure of their co-occurrence probability and to define co-occurrence networks. Pairs averaged 6.1 [95% CI: 5.3, 6.8] d between detections in low-disturbance landscapes (e.g., national forests) but 4.1 [3.5, 4.7] d between detections in high-disturbance landscapes, such as those dominated by urbanization or intensive agriculture. Co-occurrence networks showed higher connectance (i.e., a larger proportion of the possible co-occurrences) and greater proportions of low-antagonism pairs in disturbed landscapes. Human-mediated increases in species abundance (possibly via resource subsidies) appeared more important than behavioral mechanisms (e.g., changes in daily activity timing) in driving these patterns of compressed co-occurrence in disturbed landscapes. The spatiotemporal compression of species co-occurrences in disturbed landscapes likely strengthens interactions like competition, predation, and infection unless species can avoid each other at fine spatiotemporal scales. Regardless, human-mediated increases in co-occurrence with-and hence increased exposure to-predators or competitors might elevate stress levels in individual animals, with possible cascading effects across populations, communities, and ecosystems.

Antipredator behaviors in urban settings: Ecological experimentation powered by citizen science.

Animal behaviors are often modified in urban settings due to changes in species assemblages and interactions. The ability of prey to respond to a predator is a critical behavior, but urban populations may experience altered predation pressure, food supplementation, and other human-mediated disturbances that modify their responsiveness to predation risk and promote habituation.Citizen-science programs generally focus on the collection and analysis of observational data (e.g., bird checklists), but there has been increasing interest in the engagement of citizen scientists for ecological experimentation.Our goal was to implement a behavioral experiment in which citizen scientists recorded antipredator behaviors in wild birds occupying urban areas. In North America, increasing populations of Accipiter hawks have colonized suburban and urban areas and regularly prey upon birds that frequent backyard bird feeders. This scenario, of an increasingly common avian predator hunting birds near human dwellings, offers a unique opportunity to characterize antipredator behaviors within urban passerines.For two winters, we engaged citizen scientists in Chicago, IL, USA to deploy a playback experiment and record antipredator behaviors in backyard birds. If backyard birds maintained their antipredator behaviors, we hypothesized that birds would decrease foraging behaviors and increase vigilance in response to a predator cue (hawk playback) but that these responses would be mediated by flock size, presence of sentinel species, body size, tree cover, and amount of surrounding urban area.Using a randomized control-treatment design, citizen scientists at 15 sites recorded behaviors from 3891 individual birds representing 22 species. Birds were more vigilant and foraged less during the playback of a hawk call, and these responses were strongest for individuals within larger flocks and weakest in larger-bodied birds. We did not find effects of sentinel species, tree cover, or urbanization.By deploying a behavioral experiment, we found that backyard birds inhabiting urban landscapes largely maintained antipredator behaviors of increased vigilance and decreased foraging in response to predator cues. Experimentation in citizen science poses challenges (e.g., observation bias, sample size limitations, and reduced complexity in protocol design), but unlike programs focused solely on observational data, experimentation allows researchers to disentangle the complex factors underlying animal behavior and species interactions.

Snapshot Wisconsin: networking community scientists and remote sensing to improve ecological monitoring and management.

Biological data collection is entering a new era. Community science, satellite remote sensing (SRS), and local forms of remote sensing (e.g., camera traps and acoustic recordings) have enabled biological data to be collected at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales and resolution. There is growing interest in developing observation networks to collect and synthesize data to improve broad-scale ecological monitoring, but no examples of such networks have emerged to inform decision-making by agencies. Here, we present the implementation of one such jurisdictional observation network (JON), Snapshot Wisconsin, which links synoptic environmental data derived from SRS to biodiversity observations collected continuously from a trail camera network to support management decision-making. We use several examples to illustrate that Snapshot Wisconsin improves the spatial, temporal, and biological resolution and extent of information available to support management, filling gaps associated with traditional monitoring and enabling consideration of new management strategies. JONs like Snapshot Wisconsin further strengthen monitoring inference by contributing novel lines of evidence useful for corroboration or integration. SRS provides environmental context that facilitates inference, prediction, and forecasting, and ultimately helps managers formulate, test, and refine conceptual models for the monitored systems. Although these approaches pose challenges, Snapshot Wisconsin demonstrates that expansive observation networks can be tractably managed by agencies to support decision making, providing a powerful new tool for agencies to better achieve their missions and reshape the nature of environmental decision-making.

Towards an Environmental Classification of Lentic Aquatic Ecosystems in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys are the largest single ice-free area in Antarctica, and of considerable scientific and conservation value as an extreme polar desert. This is recognised through the McMurdo Dry Valleys Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA), where management's goals focus on protection of its unique features, while facilitating science access. Using a mix of remote sensing and existing cartography, we have identified over 6000 lakes and ponds in the ASMA. This study develops a classification of those aquatic ecosystems to provide a framework for management. It uses a limited top-down, hierarchical classification to define 13 class separations based on physical attributes that could largely be ascribed from existing databases or remotely sensed information. The first hierarchical level was based on landscape position, separating coastal kettle holes (reflecting recent glacial history), from other "topographic" water bodies. The second level was based on endorheic vs exorheic drainage, the third on mid-summer ice condition (no-ice cap; ice capped; frozen to base) and the fourth on source of inflow (glacial or non-glacial). Kettles were sub-classed by mid-summer ice only. Classes were tested against a set of field observations and an expert workshop validation process considered management implications for the ASMA. This study shows how the classification assists our understanding of Dry Valley landscapes and addresses management issues faced by researchers, environmental managers and policy makers. The approach to classification, rather than the detailed classes that may be specific to the Dry Valleys, has potential for wider use in other polar landscapes.

Abundance estimation of unmarked animals based on camera-trap data.

The rapid improvement of camera traps in recent decades has revolutionized biodiversity monitoring. Despite clear applications in conservation science, camera traps have seldom been used to model the abundance of unmarked animal populations. We sought to summarize the challenges facing abundance estimation of unmarked animals, compile an overview of existing analytical frameworks, and provide guidance for practitioners seeking a suitable method. When a camera records multiple detections of an unmarked animal, one cannot determine whether the images represent multiple mobile individuals or a single individual repeatedly entering the camera viewshed. Furthermore, animal movement obfuscates a clear definition of the sampling area and, as a result, the area to which an abundance estimate corresponds. Recognizing these challenges, we identified 6 analytical approaches and reviewed 927 camera-trap studies published from 2014 to 2019 to assess the use and prevalence of each method. Only about 5% of the studies used any of the abundance-estimation methods we identified. Most of these studies estimated local abundance or covariate relationships rather than predicting abundance or density over broader areas. Next, for each analytical approach, we compiled the data requirements, assumptions, advantages, and disadvantages to help practitioners navigate the landscape of abundance estimation methods. When seeking an appropriate method, practitioners should evaluate the life history of the focal taxa, carefully define the area of the sampling frame, and consider what types of data collection are possible. The challenge of estimating abundance of unmarked animal populations persists; although multiple methods exist, no one method is optimal for camera-trap data under all circumstances. As analytical frameworks continue to evolve and abundance estimation of unmarked animals becomes increasingly common, camera traps will become even more important for informing conservation decision-making.

Estimación de la Abundancia de Animales No Marcados con Base en Datos de Cámaras Trampa Resumen La rápida mejoría de las cámaras trampa en las décadas recientes ha revolucionado el monitoreo de la biodiversidad. A pesar de su clara aplicación en las ciencias de la conservación, las cámaras trampa han sido utilizadas pocas veces para modelar la abundancia de las poblaciones de animales no marcados. Buscamos resumir los retos que enfrenta la estimación de la abundancia de animales no marcados, compilar una perspectiva general de los marcos analíticos de trabajo existentes y proporcionar una guía para aquellos practicantes que buscan un método adecuado. Cuando una cámara registra múltiples detecciones de animales no marcados, no se puede determinar si las imágenes representan a diferentes individuos en movimiento o a un solo individuo que entra repetidamente a la zona de visión de la cámara. Sumado a esto, el movimiento animal ofusca una definición clara del área de muestreo y, como resultado, del área a la cual corresponde un estimado de abundancia. Después de reconocer estos retos, identificamos seis estrategias analíticas y revisamos 927 estudios con cámaras trampa publicados entre 2014 y 2019 para evaluar el uso y la prevalencia de cada método. Solamente en el 5% de los estudios se usó cualquiera de los métodos de estimación de abundancia que identificamos. La mayoría de estos estudios estimaron la abundancia local o las relaciones de covarianza en lugar de predecir la abundancia o la densidad a lo largo de áreas más amplias. Después, para cada estrategia analítica, recopilamos los requerimientos de datos, suposiciones, ventajas y desventajas para ayudar a los practicantes a navegar el paisaje de los métodos de estimación de abundancia. Cuando los practicantes busquen un método apropiado deberán evaluar la historia de vida del taxón focal, definir cuidadosamente el área del marco de muestreo y considerar cuáles tipos de recolección de datos son posibles. El reto de estimar la abundancia de poblaciones de animales no marcados persiste; aunque existan muchos métodos, no hay método único óptimo para los datos de las cámaras trampa que cumpla con todas las circunstancias. Mientras los marcos analíticos de trabajo sigan evolucionando y la estimación de la abundancia de animales no marcados sea cada vez más común, las cámaras trampa serán todavía más importantes para informar la toma de decisiones de conservación.

Antarctica and the strategic plan for biodiversity.

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, adopted under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, provides the basis for taking effective action to curb biodiversity loss across the planet by 2020-an urgent imperative. Yet, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, which encompass 10% of the planet's surface, are excluded from assessments of progress against the Strategic Plan. The situation is a lost opportunity for biodiversity conservation globally. We provide such an assessment. Our evidence suggests, surprisingly, that for a region so remote and apparently pristine as the Antarctic, the biodiversity outlook is similar to that for the rest of the planet. Promisingly, however, much scope for remedial action exists.

Institutionalized Discontent.

Examining past experiences of student activism at Berkeley this article suggests that the present storm of political correctness sweeping American universities represents more than just another of the periodic crusades that have disrupted academic life over the years. The current wave of activism is different largely because the ever-present minorities of militant faculty and student activists have gained significant reinforcements in their struggle to transform the culture and mission of higher education. Over the last several decades federal regulations and funds have created an alternative bureaucracy within universities that is devoted, not to the core academic mission of teaching and research, but to improving the social climate of university life. The legitimacy and power of the social climate bureaucracy depend on heightening the perception that academic life involves a dangerous environment, from which students need protection - a service provided through creating safe spaces, helping students to recognize micro-aggressions, training them in sexual assault prevention, conducting sensitivity training for faculty and the like. Devoted to heightening this perception of the university campus as a hostile environment, the climate bureaucracy has become a source of institutionalized discontent.