Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.

Incorporating fine-scale environmental heterogeneity into broad-extent models.

A key aim of ecology is to understand the drivers of ecological patterns, so that we can accurately predict the effects of global environmental change. However, in many cases, predictors are measured at a finer resolution than the ecological response. We therefore require data aggregation methods that avoid loss of information on fine-grain heterogeneity.We present a data aggregation method that, unlike current approaches, reduces the loss of information on fine-grain spatial structure in environmental heterogeneity for use with coarse-grain ecological datasets. Our method contains three steps: (a) define analysis scales (predictor grain, response grain, scale-of-effect); (b) use a moving window to calculate a measure of variability in environment (predictor grain) at the process-relevant scale (scale-of-effect); and (c) aggregate the moving window calculations to the coarsest resolution (response grain). We show the theoretical basis for our method using simulated landscapes and the practical utility with a case study. Our method is available as the grainchanger r package.The simulations show that information about spatial structure is captured that would have been lost using a direct aggregation approach, and that our method is particularly useful in landscapes with spatial autocorrelation in the environmental predictor variable (e.g. fragmented landscapes) and when the scale-of-effect is small relative to the response grain. We use our data aggregation method to find the appropriate scale-of-effect of land cover diversity on Eurasian jay Garrulus glandarius abundance in the UK. We then model the interactive effect of land cover heterogeneity and temperature on G. glandarius abundance. Our method enables us quantify this interaction despite the different scales at which these factors influence G. glandarius abundance.Our data aggregation method allows us to integrate variables that act at varying scales into one model with limited loss of information, which has wide applicability for spatial analyses beyond the specific ecological context considered here. Key ecological applications include being able to estimate the interactive effect of drivers that vary at different scales (such as climate and land cover), and to systematically examine the scale dependence of the effects of environmental heterogeneity in combination with the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England.

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density-yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.

Conservación de Aves y el Continuo de Suelo Compartido-Reservado en Paisajes Dominados por Tierras de Cultivo en las Tierras Bajas de Inglaterra Resumen La evidencia empírica proveniente de muchas regiones sugiere que la mayoría de las especies se verían menos afectadas negativamente si se cumpliera con la demanda humana de alimentos por medio de una producción agrícola de alto rendimiento y la conservación de ecosistemas no agrícolas (dosificación de suelo) en lugar de hacerlo a través de la agricultura amigable con la fauna en un área mayor (partición de suelo). Sin embargo, la glaciación repetitiva y una larga historia agrícola podrían brindar diferentes resultados en regiones como Europa occidental. Comparamos las consecuencias de la dosificación y la partición de suelo sobre especies de aves en reproducción en dos regiones de tierras bajas en Inglaterra: Los Fens, con 101 especies, y la Planicie Salisbury, con 83 especies. Derivamos las respuestas con densidad de rendimiento para cada especie y después estimamos el tamaño poblacional regional bajo estrategias regionales de producción de alimentos, incluyendo la dosificación y la partición de suelo, una gama de estrategias intermedias y una novedosa estrategia mixta. En ambas regiones, más especies alcanzaron el tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación del suelo que bajo la partición del suelo. En Los Fens, la mayoría de las aves fueron especies perdedoras (se estimó que tendrían tamaños poblacionales menores bajo todas las estrategias de producción de alimento que en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base) mientras que en la Planicie Salisbury, la mayoría de las especies fueron ganadoras (con poblaciones más pequeñas en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base). Las especies perdedoras tuvieron abrumadoramente un tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación de suelo, mientras que las especies ganadoras tuvieron este máximo poblacional bajo la partición de suelo o alguna estrategia intermedia, lo que resalta la importancia de la definición de cuáles grupos de especies son el objetivo de conservación. Una estrategia novedosa de tres compartimentos (combina la agricultura de alto rendimiento, el hábitat natural y la agricultura de bajo rendimiento) muchas veces tuvo un mejor desempeño que la dosificación o la partición del suelo. Nuestros resultados respaldan a las estrategias de dosificación de suelo intermedias o de tres compartimentos para maximizar las poblaciones de aves en todos los paisajes agrícolas de las tierras bajas. Para brindar resultados de conservación, cualquier cambio hacia la dosificación del suelo, sin embargo, debe asegurar que los incrementos en el rendimiento son sustentables a largo plazo, no conllevan un incremento de efectos negativos en las áreas circundantes, y que están vinculados a la asignación de suelo para la naturaleza.

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.

Reconciling biodiversity and carbon conservation.

Climate change is leading to the development of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies that are likely to have substantial impacts on global biodiversity. Of these, approaches to maintain carbon within existing natural ecosystems could have particularly large benefits for biodiversity. However, the geographical distributions of terrestrial carbon stocks and biodiversity differ. Using conservation planning analyses for the New World and Britain, we conclude that a carbon-only strategy would not be effective at conserving biodiversity, as have previous studies. Nonetheless, we find that a combined carbon-biodiversity strategy could simultaneously protect 90% of carbon stocks (relative to a carbon-only conservation strategy) and > 90% of the biodiversity (relative to a biodiversity-only strategy) in both regions. This combined approach encapsulates the principle of complementarity, whereby locations that contain different sets of species are prioritised, and hence disproportionately safeguard localised species that are not protected effectively by carbon-only strategies. It is efficient because localised species are concentrated into small parts of the terrestrial land surface, whereas carbon is somewhat more evenly distributed; and carbon stocks protected in one location are equivalent to those protected elsewhere. Efficient compromises can only be achieved when biodiversity and carbon are incorporated together within a spatial planning process.

Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records--as assessed using widespread metrics--need not indicate a model's ability to predict the future.

Spatial covariation between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystem services.

To inform the design and implementation of land-use policies that consider the variety of goods and services people derive from ecosystems, it is essential to understand spatial patterns of individual services, how multiple services relate to each other, and how these relationships vary across spatial scales and localities. Despite the importance of freshwater as a determinant of regional economic and human demographic patterns, there are surprisingly few studies that map the provision of a range of services associated with the quality of the aquatic environment. Here we examine relationships between indicators of riverine water and associated habitat quality, freshwater biodiversity, three terrestrial ecosystem services, and terrestrial biodiversity across England and Wales. The results indicate strong associations between our indicators of freshwater services. However, a comparison of these indicators of freshwater services with other ecosystem services (carbon storage, agricultural production, recreation) and biodiversity of species of conservation concern in the surrounding terrestrial landscape shows no clear relationships. While there are potential policy "win-wins" for the protection of multiple services shown by associations between indicators of freshwater services and carbon storage in upland areas of Britain, the other ecosystem services showed either negative or no relationships with the indicators of freshwater services. We also consider the influence that spatial scale has on these relationships using River Basin Districts. Our results indicate that relationships between indicators of services can change dramatically depending on the societal pressures and other regional conditions. Thus, the delivery of multiple ecosystem services requires the development of regional strategies, or of national strategies that take account of regional variation.

Balancing alternative land uses in conservation prioritization.

Pressure on ecosystems to provide various different and often conflicting services is immense and likely to increase. The impacts and success of conservation prioritization will be enhanced if the needs of competing land uses are recognized at the planning stage. We develop such methods and illustrate them with data about competing land uses in Great Britain, with the aim of developing a conservation priority ranking that balances between needs of biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, agricultural value, and urban development potential. While both carbon stocks and biodiversity are desirable features from the point of view of conservation, they compete with the needs of agriculture and urban development. In Britain the greatest conflicts exist between biodiversity and urban areas, while the largest carbon stocks occur mostly in Scotland in areas with low agricultural or urban pressure. In our application, we were able successfully to balance the spatial allocation of alternative land uses so that conflicts between them were much smaller than had they been developed separately. The proposed methods and software, Zonation, are applicable to structurally similar prioritization problems globally.

Bird distributions relative to remotely sensed habitats in Great Britain: towards a framework for national modelling.

This paper develops a comprehensive and objective picture of bird distributions relative to habitats across Britain. Bird species presence/absence data from an extensive field survey and habitat data from the remotely sensed UK Land Cover Map 2000 were analysed in 36,920 tetrads (2 kmx2 km) across Britain (a 65% sample of Britain's c. 240,000 km2). Cluster analysis linked birds to generalised landscapes based on distinctive habitat assemblages. Maps of the clusters showed strong regional patterns associated with the habitat assemblages. Cluster centroid coordinates for each bird species and each habitat were combined across clusters to derive individualised bird-habitat preference indices and examine the importance of individual habitats for each bird species. Even rare species and scarce habitats showed successful linkages. Results were assessed against published accounts of bird-habitat relations. Objective corroboration strongly supported the associations. Relatively scarce coastal and wetland habitats proved particularly important for many birds. However, extensive arable farmland and woodland habitats were also favoured by many species, despite reported declines in bird numbers in these habitats. The fact that habitat-specialists do not or cannot move habitat is perhaps a reason for declining numbers where habitats have become unsuitable. This study showed that there are unifying principles determining bird-habitat relations which apply and can be quantified at the national scale, and which corroborate and complement the cumulative knowledge of many and varied surveys and ecological studies. This 'generality' suggests that we may be able, reliably and objectively, to integrate and scale up such disparate studies to the national scale, using this generalised framework. It also suggests the potential for a landscape ecology approach to bird-habitat analyses. Such developments will be important steps in building models to develop and test the sustainable management of landscapes for birds.

Winter availability of cereal stubbles attracts declining farmland birds and positively influences breeding population trends.

Many studies have demonstrated the selection of stubble fields by farmland birds in winter, but none have shown whether provisioning of this key habitat positively influences national population trends for widespread farmland birds. We use two complementary extensive bird surveys undertaken at the same localities in summer and winter and show that the area of stubble in winter attracts increased numbers of several bird species of conservation concern. Moreover, for several farmland specialists, the availability of stubble fields in winter positively influenced the 10 year breeding population trend (1994-2003) whereas hedgerow bird species were less affected. For skylarks and yellowhammers, initially negative trends showed recovery with 10-20 ha of stubble per 1 km square. Thus, agri-environment schemes that promote retention of over-winter stubbles will attract birds locally and are capable of reversing current population declines if stubbles are available in sufficient quantity.

Changes in bird populations on sample lowland English farms in relation to loss of hedgerows and other non-crop habitats.

Farmland bird population trends were examined on a sample of lowland English farms to assess the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat degradation. Data were extracted from 11 farms surveyed by territory mapping between 1966 and 1986 as part of the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census. The population size of 38 bird species was quantified for each farm in each year. The extents of five non-crop habitats were measured at 4-yearly intervals on each farm. The farms were selected because some had undergone extensive removal of non-crop habitats while others had undergone little or none. Although declines were commonest on farms where the severest habitat loss had taken place, we found no evidence that habitat loss was the main factor causing population declines: all 11 farms had significant numbers of declining species, even where habitat loss was minimal. Furthermore, general linear modelling found no significant effects of habitat loss on population trends and principal-components analysis found limited effects of habitat extent on community composition. These results suggest that habitat loss is of secondary importance in causing farmland bird population declines. We suggest that other processes, such as habitat degradation, may have caused a baseline population decline in at least 10 farmland bird species and that declines may have been exacerbated by localised habitat loss.