Trees, carbon, and the psychology of landscapes.

Mitigating climate change while safeguarding biodiversity and livelihoods is a major challenge. However, rampant afforestation threatens biodiversity and livelihoods, with questionable benefits to carbon storage. The narrative of landscape degradation is often applied without considering the history of the landscape. While some landscapes are undoubtedly deforested, others existed in open or mosaic states before human intervention, or have been deliberately maintained as such. In psychology, a 'fundamental attribution error' is made when characteristics are attributed without consideration of context or circumstances. We apply this concept to landscapes, and then propose a process that avoids attribution errors by testing a null hypothesis regarding past forest extent, using palaeoecology and other long-term data, alongside ecological and stakeholder knowledge.

How changing fire management policies affect fire seasonality and livelihoods.

There is a long history of fire management in African savannas, but knowledge of historical and current use of fire is scarce in savanna-woodland biomes. This study explores past and present fire management practices and perceptions of the Khwe (former hunter-gatherers) and Mbukushu (agropastoralists) communities as well as government and non-government stakeholders in Bwabwata National Park in north-east Namibia. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used in combination with satellite data (from 2000 to 2015), to investigate historical and current fire management dynamics. Results show that political dynamics in the region disrupted traditional fire practices, specifically a policy of fire suppression was initiated by colonial governments in 1888 and maintained during independence until 2005. Both the Khwe and Mbukushu communities use early season (i.e. between April and July) fires for diverse interrelated historical and current livelihood activities, and park management for managing late season fires. The Mbukushu community also use late season burns to prepare land for crops. In this study, we use a pyrogeographic framework to understand the human dimension of fires. This study reveals how today's fire management practices and policies, specifically the resurgence of early season burning are entrenched in the past. Understanding and acknowledging the social and cultural dynamics of fire, alongside participatory stakeholder engagement is critical for managing fires in the future.

Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science.

A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

Finding Common Ground between Adaptive Management and Evidence-Based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation.

Adaptive management (AM) and evidence-based conservation (EBC) have emerged as major decision-making frameworks for conservation management. AM deals with complexity and the importance of local context in making conservation decisions under conditions of high variability, uncertainty, and rapid environmental and social change. EBC seeks for generality from empirical data and aims to develop and enhance best practice. The goal of this review is to explore opportunities for finding common ground between AM and EBC. We propose a framework for distinguishing the subset of conservation problems that are amenable to an evidence-based approach, based on levels of uncertainty, complexity, and social agreement. We then suggest ways for combining multiple lines of evidence and developing greater opportunities for iteration and co-learning in EBC.

From myopia to clarity: sharpening the focus of ecosystem management through the lens of palaeoecology.

Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in a changing environment requires a temporal perspective that informs realistic restoration and management targets. Such targets need to be dynamic, adaptive, and responsive to changing boundary conditions. However, the application of long-term data from palaeoecology is often hindered as the management and policy implications are not made explicit, and because data sets are often not accessible or amenable to stakeholders. Focussing on this translation gap, we explore how a palaeoecological perspective can change the focus of biodiversity management and conservation policy. We embed a long-term perspective (decades to millennia) into current adaptive management and policy frameworks, with the aim of encouraging better integration between palaeoecology, conservation management, and mainstreaming viable provision of ecosystem services.

Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy.

Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself.

The (im)balance of nature: a public perception time-lag?

The last two decades have seen a conceptual shift within environmental and social sciences from an emphasis on ecosystem stability and balance to an acknowledgement of the importance of flux and change in the natural world. This has profound implications for conservation management and policy and has driven an (incomplete) transition from managing to maintain (bio)diversity and ecological stability at some historically derived "optimum" to managing to maintain important ecosystem and evolutionary processes such as nutrient cycles and migration. Here, we investigate whether this change from a "balance of nature" metaphor to a more dynamic perspective ("flux of nature") is reflected in the representation of conservation and ecosystem management in the news media, the Internet, and the academic literature. We found that the media and the global Internet community still portray the aim of conservation science and of conservationists as being one of maintaining stability, harmony and balance.

Biodiversity hotspots through time: an introduction.

International targets set for reducing the rate of biodiversity loss--the 2010 target--and ensuring environmental stability (Millennium Development Goals) have helped to focus the efforts of the scientific community on providing the data necessary for their implementation. The urgency of these goals, coupled with the increased rate of habitat alteration worldwide, has meant that actions have largely not taken into account the increasing body of data about the biodiversity change in the past. We know a lot about how our planet has been altered and recovered in the past, both in deep time and through prehistory. Linking this knowledge to conservation action has not been widely practised, by either the palaeoecology or the conservation communities. Long-term data, however, have much to offer current conservation practice, and in the papers for this volume we have tried to bring together a variety of different perspectives as to how this might happen in the most effective way. We also identify areas for productive collaboration and some key synergies for work in the near future to enable our knowledge of the past to be used for conservation action in the here and now. Lateral thinking, across knowledge systems and with open-mindness about bridging data gaps, will be necessary for our accumulating knowledge about our planet's past to be brought to bear on our attempts to conserve it in the future.