ADHD medicine consumption in Europe after COVID-19: catch-up or trend change?

BACKGROUND: Although the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications have been associated with mental health services utilization and medication consumption, there is no longitudinal study on the long-term impact on ADHD medication use trends. METHODS: This study examines the European ADHD medication consumption in 2020 to 2022 compared to the predicted consumption assuming the persistence of pre-pandemic trends. Predictions are calculated using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. RESULTS: While European ADHD medication sales recorded a drop in 2020, they returned to the predicted level in 2021, even slightly exceeding it. In 2022, we found a clear exceedance of the predicted level by 16.4% on average at country level. Furthermore, the increase in consumption growth in the post-pandemic period (2021-2022) compared to the pre-pandemic period (2014-2019) was significant in 26 of the 28 European countries under consideration. CONCLUSION: There is strong evidence of a trend change in the ADHD medicine consumption growth throughout Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ADHD medicine consumption in 47 countries and regions.

The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication consumption globally and nationally using pharmaceutical sales data from 2014 to 2021 across 47 countries and regions. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was applied to the time series until the end of 2019 at country level and used for the prediction of the ADHD medication consumption in 2020 and 2021. The deviations from the actual to the forecasted sales, which simulate the development without the emergence of COVID-19, yield estimates for the pandemic's impact. In 36 of the 47 countries and regions, the actual sales in 2020 were lower than predicted, with an average relative drop of 6.2% in defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day at country-level. In 2021, most countries recorded actually higher ADHD medication use than predicted at the end of 2019. On average, the consumption increased per country by 1.60%. The deviations strongly correlate with the stringency of anti-pandemic government policies. The findings suggest that the pandemic led to a substantially lower consumption of ADHD medication in 2020. However, in 2021 the pandemic had an accelerating effect as the increasing consumption trends are more pronounced than before the pandemic.