Effects of disease control by fungicides on greenhouse gas emissions by U.K. arable crop production.

BACKGROUND: The U.K. government has published plans to reduce U.K. agriculture's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, the goal of global food security requires an increase in arable crop yields. Foliar disease control measures such as fungicides have an important role in meeting both objectives. RESULTS: It is estimated that U.K. winter barley production is associated with GHG emissions of 2770 kg CO2 eq. ha(-1) of crop and 355 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) of grain. Foliar disease control by fungicides is associated with decreases in GHG emissions of 42-60 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) in U.K. winter barley and 29-39 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) in U.K. spring barley. The sensitivity of these results to the impact of disease control on yield and to variant GHG emissions assumptions is presented. Fungicide treatment of the major U.K. arable crops is estimated to have directly decreased U.K. GHG emissions by over 1.5 Mt CO2 eq. in 2009. CONCLUSION: Crop disease control measures such as fungicide treatment reduce the GHG emissions associated with producing a tonne of grain. As national demand for food increases, greater yields as a result of disease control also decrease the need to convert land from non-arable to arable use, which further mitigates GHG emissions.

Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming.

Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high- and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.