Small mobile conditional cash transfers (mCCTs) of different amounts, schedules and design to improve routine childhood immunization coverage and timeliness of children aged 0-23 months in Pakistan: An open label multi-arm randomized controlled trial.

Background: Cost-effective demand-side interventions are needed to increase childhood immunization. Multiple studies find tying income support programs (≥USD 50 per year) to immunization raises coverage. Research on maximizing impact from small mobile-based conditional cash transfers (mCCTs) (≤USD 15 per fully immunized child) delivered in lower-income settings remains sparse. Methods: Participants in Karachi, Pakistan, were individually randomized into a seven arm, factorial open label study with five mCCT arms, one reminder (SMS) only arm, and one control arm. The mCCT arms varied by amount (high ∼USD 15 per fully immunized child versus low ∼USD 5 per fully immunized child), schedule (flat versus rising payments over the schedule), design (certain versus lottery payments), and payment method (airtime or mobile money). Children were enrolled at BCG, pentavalent-1 (penta-1) or pentavalent-2 (penta-2) vaccination and followed until at least 18 months of age. A serosurvey in 15% sub-sample validated reported study coverage. The full immunization coverage (FIC) at 12 months (primary outcome) was analyzed using logit regression. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03355989), 3ie registry (58f6ee7725fc1), and AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0001953). Findings: Between November 6, 2017, and October 10, 2018, a total of 11,197 caregiver-child pairs were enrolled, with 1598-1600 caregiver-child pairs per arm. FIC at 12 months was statistically significantly higher for any mCCT versus SMS (OR:1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.33; p = 0.005). Within the mCCT arms, FIC was statistically significantly higher for high versus low amount (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04-1.29; p = 0.007), certain versus lottery payment (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.17-1.45; p < 0.001) and airtime versus mobile money (OR: 1.17, 95% CI:1.01-1.36; p = 0.043). There was no statistically significant difference between a flat and increasing schedule (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15; p = 0.550). SMS had a marginally statistically significant impact on FIC versus control (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35; p = 0.046). Findings were similar for up-to-date coverage of penta-3, measles-1 and measles-2 at 18 months. Interpretation: Small mCCTs (USD 0.8-2.4 per immunization visit) can increase FIC at 12 months and up-to-date coverage at 18 months at USD 23 per additional fully immunized child, in resource-constrained settings like Pakistan. Design details (certainty, schedule and delivery method of mCCTs) matter as much as the size of payments. Funding: Global Innovation Fund, GiveWell.

Impact of a Daily SMS Medication Reminder System on Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The rapid uptake of mobile phones in low and middle-income countries over the past decade has provided public health programs unprecedented access to patients. While programs have used text messages to improve medication adherence, there have been no high-powered trials evaluating their impact on tuberculosis treatment outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To measure the impact of Zindagi SMS, a two-way SMS reminder system, on treatment success of people with drug-sensitive tuberculosis. DESIGN: We conducted a two-arm, parallel design, effectiveness randomized controlled trial in Karachi, Pakistan. Individual participants were randomized to either Zindagi SMS or the control group. Zindagi SMS sent daily SMS reminders to participants and asked them to respond through SMS or missed (unbilled) calls after taking their medication. Non-respondents were sent up to three reminders a day. SETTING: Public and private sector tuberculosis clinics in Karachi, Pakistan. PARTICIPANTS: Newly-diagnosed patients with smear or bacteriologically positive pulmonary tuberculosis who were on treatment for less than two weeks; 15 years of age or older; reported having access to a mobile phone; and intended to live in Karachi throughout treatment were eligible to participate. We enrolled 2,207 participants, with 1,110 randomized to Zindagi SMS and 1,097 to the control group. MAIN OUTCOME: The primary outcome was clinically recorded treatment success based upon intention-to-treat. RESULTS: We found no significant difference between the Zindagi SMS or control groups for treatment success (719 or 83% vs. 903 or 83%, respectively, p = 0·782). There was no significant program effect on self-reported medication adherence reported during unannounced visits during treatment. CONCLUSION: In this large-scale randomized controlled effectiveness trial of SMS medication reminders for tuberculosis treatment, we found no significant impact. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01690754.

The challenge of education and learning in the developing world.

Across many different contexts, randomized evaluations find that school participation is sensitive to costs: Reducing out-of-pocket costs, merit scholarships, and conditional cash transfers all increase schooling. Addressing child health and providing information on how earnings rise with education can increase schooling even more cost-effectively. However, among those in school, test scores are remarkably low and unresponsive to more-of-the-same inputs, such as hiring additional teachers, buying more textbooks, or providing flexible grants. In contrast, pedagogical reforms that match teaching to students' learning levels are highly cost effective at increasing learning, as are reforms that improve accountability and incentives, such as local hiring of teachers on short-term contracts. Technology could potentially improve pedagogy and accountability. Improving pre- and postprimary education are major future challenges.

Improving immunisation coverage in rural India: clustered randomised controlled evaluation of immunisation campaigns with and without incentives.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of modest non-financial incentives on immunisation rates in children aged 1-3 and to compare it with the effect of only improving the reliability of the supply of services. DESIGN: Clustered randomised controlled study. SETTING: Rural Rajasthan, India. PARTICIPANTS: 1640 children aged 1-3 at end point. INTERVENTIONS: 134 villages were randomised to one of three groups: a once monthly reliable immunisation camp (intervention A; 379 children from 30 villages); a once monthly reliable immunisation camp with small incentives (raw lentils and metal plates for completed immunisation; intervention B; 382 children from 30 villages), or control (no intervention, 860 children in 74 villages). Surveys were undertaken in randomly selected households at baseline and about 18 months after the interventions started (end point). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of children aged 1-3 at the end point who were partially or fully immunised. RESULTS: Among children aged 1-3 in the end point survey, rates of full immunisation were 39% (148/382, 95% confidence interval 30% to 47%) for intervention B villages (reliable immunisation with incentives), 18% (68/379, 11% to 23%) for intervention A villages (reliable immunisation without incentives), and 6% (50/860, 3% to 9%) for control villages. The relative risk of complete immunisation for intervention B versus control was 6.7 (4.5 to 8.8) and for intervention B versus intervention A was 2.2 (1.5 to 2.8). Children in areas neighbouring intervention B villages were also more likely to be fully immunised than those from areas neighbouring intervention A villages (1.9, 1.1 to 2.8). The average cost per immunisation was $56 (2202 rupees) in intervention A and $28 (1102 rupees, about pound16 or euro19) in intervention B. CONCLUSIONS: Improving reliability of services improves immunisation rates, but the effect remains modest. Small incentives have large positive impacts on the uptake of immunisation services in resource poor areas and are more cost effective than purely improving supply. TRIAL REGISTRATION: IRSCTN87759937.

PUTTING A BAND-AID ON A CORPSE: INCENTIVES FOR NURSES IN THE INDIAN PUBLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEM.

The public Indian health care system is plagued by high staff absence, low effort by providers, and limited use by potential beneficiaries who prefer private alternatives. This artice reports the results of an experiment carried out with a district administration and a nongovernmental organization (NGO). The presence of government nurses in government public health facilities (subcenters and aid-posts) was recorded by the NGO, and the government took steps to punish the worst delinquents. Initially, the monitoring system was extremely effective. This shows that nurses are responsive to financial incentives. But after a few months, the local health administration appears to have undermined the scheme from the inside by letting the nurses claim an increasing number of "exempt days." Eighteen months after its inception, the program had become completely ineffective.

Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness.

The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.