The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. METHODS: Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. RESULTS: "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." CONCLUSIONS: The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

Impact of a comprehensive population health management program on health care costs.

OBJECTIVE: Assess the influence of participation in a population health management (PHM) program on health care costs. METHODS: A quasi-experimental study relied on logistic and ordinary least squares regression models to compare the costs of program participants with those of nonparticipants, while controlling for differences in health care costs and utilization, demographics, and health status. Propensity score models were developed and analyses were weighted by inverse propensity scores to control for selection bias. RESULTS: Study models yielded an estimated savings of $60.65 per wellness participant per month and $214.66 per disease management participant per month. Program savings were combined to yield an integrated return-on-investment of $3 in savings for every dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS: A PHM program yielded a positive return on investment after 2 years of wellness program and 1 year of integrated disease management program launch.

Impact of 2 employer-sponsored population health management programs on medical care cost and utilization.

BACKGROUND: Integrated health management programs combining disease prevention and disease management services, although popular with employers, have been insufficiently researched with respect to their effect on costs. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the overall impact of a population health management program and its components on cost and utilization. STUDY DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational study of 2 employer-sponsored health management programs involving more than 200,000 health plan members. METHODS: We used claims data for the first program year and the 2 preceding years to calculate cost and utilization metrics, and program activity data to determine program uptake. Using an intent-to-treat approach and regression-based risk adjustment, we estimated whether the program was associated with changes in cost and utilization. Data on program fees were unavailable. RESULTS: Overall, the program was associated with a nonsignificant cost increase of $13.75 per member per month (PMPM). The wellness component alone was associated with a significant increase of $20.14 PMPM. Case and disease management were associated with a significant decrease in hospital admissions of 4 and 1 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the programs did not reduce medical cost in their first year, despite a beneficial effect on hospital admissions. If we had been able to include program fees, it is likely that the overall cost would have increased significantly. Although this study had important limitations, the results suggest that a belief that these programs will save money may be too optimistic and better evaluation is needed.

The relationship between health promotion program participation and medical costs: a dose response.

The purpose of this research was to determine whether participation in the health risk assessment (HRA) component of a comprehensive health promotion program has an impact on medical costs, and whether the addition of participation in interventions has an incremental impact. Program participants (n = 13,048) were compared with nonparticipants (n = 13,363) to determine program impact on paid medical costs. Overall, HRA participants cost an average of $212 less than eligible nonparticipants. As HRA participation increased, cost savings also increased. Additionally, although participation in either an HRA or activities alone resulted in savings, participation in both yielded even greater benefits. The findings indicate that there is an independent benefit of each of these elements of participation, and that the sum of the elements provides a greater benefit than the impact of either of the individual elements alone.