Correction: Is It Necessary Managing Carnivores to Reverse the Decline of Endangered Prey Species? Insights from a Removal Experiment of Mesocarnivores to Benefit Demographic Parameters of the Pyrenean Capercaillie.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139837.].

Particle Swarm Optimization and Uncertainty Assessment in Inverse Problems.

Most inverse problems in the industry (and particularly in geophysical exploration) are highly underdetermined because the number of model parameters too high to achieve accurate data predictions and because the sampling of the data space is scarce and incomplete; it is always affected by different kinds of noise. Additionally, the physics of the forward problem is a simplification of the reality. All these facts result in that the inverse problem solution is not unique; that is, there are different inverse solutions (called equivalent), compatible with the prior information that fits the observed data within similar error bounds. In the case of nonlinear inverse problems, these equivalent models are located in disconnected flat curvilinear valleys of the cost-function topography. The uncertainty analysis consists of obtaining a representation of this complex topography via different sampling methodologies. In this paper, we focus on the use of a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to sample the region of equivalence in nonlinear inverse problems. Although this methodology has a general purpose, we show its application for the uncertainty assessment of the solution of a geophysical problem concerning gravity inversion in sedimentary basins, showing that it is possible to efficiently perform this task in a sampling-while-optimizing mode. Particularly, we explain how to use and analyze the geophysical models sampled by exploratory PSO family members to infer different descriptors of nonlinear uncertainty.

Behavioral evidence of hunting and foraging techniques by a top predator suggests the importance of scavenging for preadults.

Scavenging may be a regular feeding behavior for some facultative raptor species occupying low quality habitats and/or with little experience in hunting techniques. However, its importance has been largely underestimated due to methodological limitations in identifying the real proportion in the diet. Here, through direct observations, we assessed the hunting and foraging success of the threatened Spanish imperial eagle Aquila adalberti determining the influence of age, sex, breeding status, habitat quality, prey type, and landscape characteristics. From 465 observations, Spanish imperial eagles used hunting in flight (42%), scavenging (30%), hunting from a perch (16%) and kleptoparasitism (12%). Our model suggests that Prey size and Prey type best explain hunting success, followed by Landscape and Sex. Our findings suggest that Spanish imperial eagles increase hunting success with age, with scavenging and kleptoparasitism regularly used as juveniles. The absence of relationships with any of the variables considered suggests that kleptoparasitism is an opportunistic behavior used sporadically. Scavenging is also independent of habitat quality and landscape characteristics. Accordingly, low prey density is not a driver of carrion use for preadult individuals, suggesting that a lack of hunting ability obliges this age-class to use this alternative feeding technique regularly. As a result, the threatened Spanish imperial eagle population is also prone to mortality related to the illegal use of poison baits and, potentially, veterinary drugs (i.e., diclofenac).

Estimating carnivore community structures.

Obtaining reliable estimates of the structure of carnivore communities is of paramount importance because of their ecological roles, ecosystem services and impact on biodiversity conservation, but they are still scarce. This information is key for carnivore management: to build support for and acceptance of management decisions and policies it is crucial that those decisions are based on robust and high quality information. Here, we combined camera and live-trapping surveys, as well as telemetry data, with spatially-explicit Bayesian models to show the usefulness of an integrated multi-method and multi-model approach to monitor carnivore community structures. Our methods account for imperfect detection and effectively deal with species with non-recognizable individuals. In our Mediterranean study system, the terrestrial carnivore community was dominated by red foxes (0.410 individuals/km2); Egyptian mongooses, feral cats and stone martens were similarly abundant (0.252, 0.249 and 0.240 individuals/km2, respectively), whereas badgers and common genets were the least common (0.130 and 0.087 individuals/km2, respectively). The precision of density estimates improved by incorporating multiple covariates, device operation, and accounting for the removal of individuals. The approach presented here has substantial implications for decision-making since it allows, for instance, the evaluation, in a standard and comparable way, of community responses to interventions.

Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters.

Is It Necessary Managing Carnivores to Reverse the Decline of Endangered Prey Species? Insights from a Removal Experiment of Mesocarnivores to Benefit Demographic Parameters of the Pyrenean Capercaillie.

Mesopredator control has long been used to alleviate the effect of elevated predation pressure on vulnerable, threatened or valuable species. However, the convenience of using mesopredator controls is technically questionable and scientifically-sound research is therefore required to evaluate the impact of predation on prey case by case. In this study we evaluated the effect of the alteration of terrestrial mesopredator dynamics on the demographic parameters of a relict capercaillie Tetrao urogallus aquitanicus population currently in decline for which the impact of predation has not previously been assessed. We used a six-year mesocarnivore removal experiment (2008-2013) together with seven-years of previous demographic information on capercaillies (1999-2007) within a before-after control-impact (BACI) design to evaluate the effect of mesocarnivore removal on capercaillie demographic parameters and on spatial behaviour of the most frequent predatory mesocarnivores of the capercaillie (Martes spp. and red fox Vulpes vulpes). Using a dynamic site-occupancy approach, the reduction of mesocarnivore population levels as a result of removal was clear for marten species, mainly during key months for capercaillie reproduction, but not for the red fox. Our results show that the breeding success of capercaillies was enhanced in areas where carnivores were removed and was inversely related to the occupation level of the studied mesocarnivores, although being only significant for Martes spp. Moreover, capercaillie predation rates were lower and adult survival seemingly higher in treatment during the removal phase. Cost-effective, long-term management interventions to ensure the recovery of this threatened capercaillie population are discussed in the light of the results. At our study area, the decision for implementing predation management should be included within a broader long-term conservation perspective. In this regard, a more feasible and sustainable management intervention in ecological and economic terms may be to balance the impact of mesocarnivores on capercaillies through the recovery of apex predators.

Minimising mortality in endangered raptors due to power lines: the importance of spatial aggregation to optimize the application of mitigation measures.

Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and the environmental factors associated with increased electrocution events were: greater numbers of prey animals; greater vegetation cover; and shorter distance to roads. The structural elements associated with electrocutions were shorter strings of insulators, one or more phases over the crossarm, cross-shaped design and pylon function. Of the 952 carcasses found, 148 were eagles, including golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata). Electrocuted eagles were clustered in smaller areas than other electrocuted raptors. The factors associated with increased eagle electrocution events were: pylons function, shorter strings of insulators, higher slopes surrounding the pylon, and more numerous potential prey animals. Pylons with increased string of insulators had lower raptor electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, although this technique was unsuccessful for eagles. Pylons with cable insulation showed higher electrocution rates than unimproved pylons, both for raptors and eagles, despite this is the most widely used and recommended mitigation measure in several countries. To optimize the application of mitigation measures, our results recommend the substitution of pin-type insulators to suspended ones and elongating the strings of insulators.

Positive assortative pairing by plumage colour in Spanish imperial eagles.

Intraspecific variation in plumage may have a functional significance in mate choice. As a result, breeding birds are often paired assortatively with respect to colour. However, whether this within-pair correlation is a result of homotypic preference whereby individuals pick a mate that looks like themselves, or directional preference whereby all individuals have the same phenotypic preference, is often unknown. Using data collected between 1989 and 2006, we describe intraspecific variation in the striking white feathers on the leading edge of the wing, lesser coverts and mantle of 144 Spanish imperial eagles (Aquila adalberti), one of the most endangered birds of prey in the world. Females had, on average, more white than males, and pairs mated in a positive assortative fashion. Coloration was not related to age of the bird, food supply (i.e., territory quality) or breeding productivity. Our results are most consistent with the process of homotypic-preference assortative mating, and this may be a result of sexual imprinting, and function as a mechanism to optimize the degree of outbreeding. This pattern of mate selection may explain the rapid evolutionary divergence of A. adalberti from the continental population of imperial eagle A. heliaca.