How Can a Bundled Payment Model Incentivize the Transition from Single-Disease Management to Person-Centred and Integrated Care for Chronic Diseases in the Netherlands?

To stimulate the integration of chronic care across disciplines, the Netherlands has implemented single-disease management programmes (SDMPs) in primary care since 2010; for example, for COPD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular diseases. These disease-specific chronic care programmes are funded by bundled payments. For chronically ill patients with multimorbidity or with problems in other domains of health, this approach was shown to be less fit for purpose. As a result, we are currently witnessing several initiatives to broaden the scope of these programmes, aiming to provide truly person-centred integrated care (PC-IC). This raises the question if it is possible to design a payment model that would support this transition. We present an alternative payment model that combines a person-centred bundled payment with a shared savings model and pay-for-performance elements. Based on theoretical reasoning and results of previous evaluation studies, we expect the proposed payment model to stimulate integration of person-centred care between primary healthcare providers, secondary healthcare providers, and the social care domain. We also expect it to incentivise cost-conscious provider-behaviour, while safeguarding the quality of care, provided that adequate risk-mitigating actions, such as case-mix adjustment and cost-capping, are taken.

A randomized clinical trial of isolated ambulatory phlebectomy versus saphenous thermal ablation with concomitant phlebectomy (SAPTAP Trial).

BACKGROUND: Current treatment of patients with saphenous trunk and tributary incompetence consists of truncal ablation with concomitant, delayed or no treatment of the tributary. However, reflux of the saphenous trunk may be reversible after treatment of the incompetent tributary. The aim of this study was to determine whether single ambulatory phlebectomy with or without delayed endovenous truncal ablation (SAP) is non-inferior to thermal endovenous ablation with concomitant phlebectomy (TAP), and whether SAP is a cost-effective alternative to TAP. METHODS: A multicentre, non-inferiority RCT was conducted in patients with an incompetent great saphenous vein or anterior accessory saphenous vein with one or more incompetent tributaries. Participants were randomized to receive SAP or TAP. After 9 months, additional truncal treatment was considered for SAP patients with remaining symptoms. The primary outcome was VEnous INsufficiency Epidemiological and Economic Study Quality of Life/Symptoms (VEINES-QOL/Sym score) after 12 months. Secondary outcomes were, among others, cost-effectiveness, perceived improvement of symptoms, and anatomical success. RESULTS: Some 464 patients received the allocated treatment (SAP 227, TAP 237). VEINES-QOL scores were 52.7 (95 per cent c.i. 51.9 to 53.9) for SAP and 53.8 (53.3 to 55.1) for TAP; VEINES-Sym scores were 53.5 (52.6 to 54.4) and 54.2 (54.0 to 55.6) respectively. Fifty-eight patients (25.6 per cent) in the SAP group received additional truncal ablation. Treatment with SAP was less costly than treatment with TAP. CONCLUSION: One year after treatment, participants who underwent SAP had non-inferior health-related quality of life compared with those who had TAP. Treatment with SAP was a cost-effective alternative to TAP at 12 months. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR 4821 (www.trialregister.nl).

Stratification of COPD patients towards personalized medicine: reproduction and formation of clusters.

BACKGROUND: The global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) 2020 emphasizes that there is only a weak correlation between FEV1, symptoms and impairment of the health status of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Various studies aimed to identify COPD phenotypes by cluster analyses, but behavioral aspects besides smoking were rarely included. METHODS: The aims of the study were to investigate whether (i) clustering analyses are in line with the classification into GOLD ABCD groups; (ii) clustering according to Burgel et al. (Eur Respir J. 36(3):531-9, 2010) can be reproduced in a real-world COPD cohort; and (iii) addition of new behavioral variables alters the clustering outcome. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses were applied to real-world clinical data of COPD patients newly referred to secondary care (n = 155). We investigated if the obtained clusters paralleled GOLD ABCD subgroups and determined the impact of adding several variables, including quality of life (QOL), fatigue, satisfaction relationship, air trapping, steps per day and activities of daily living, on clustering. RESULTS: Using the appropriate corresponding variables, we identified clusters that largely reflected the GOLD ABCD groups, but we could not reproduce Burgel's clinical phenotypes. Adding six new variables resulted in the formation of four new clusters that mainly differed from each other in the following parameters: number of steps per day, activities of daily living and QOL. CONCLUSIONS: We could not reproduce previously identified clinical COPD phenotypes in an independent population of COPD patients. Our findings therefore indicate that COPD phenotypes based on cluster analysis may not be a suitable basis for treatment strategies for individual patients.

The risk of overestimating cost savings from hospital-at-home schemes: A literature review.

BACKGROUND: The concept of hospital-at-home means that home treatment is provided to patients who would otherwise have been treated in the hospital. This may lead to lower costs, but estimates of savings may be overstated if inpatient hospital costs are priced incorrectly. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of cost analyses of hospital-at-home studies for acute conditions published from 1996 through 2019 and to present an overview of evidence. DESIGN: Literature review DATA SOURCES: The PubMed and NHS EED databases were searched. REVIEW METHODS: The overall quality of studies was evaluated based on Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) score, design, sample size, alignment of cost calculation with study perspective, time horizon, use of tariffs or real resource use and clarity of calculations. Furthermore, we systematically assessed whether cost savings were likely to be overestimated, based on criteria about the costing of inpatient hospital days, informal care costs and bias. RESULTS: We identified 48 studies. The average QHES score was 60 out of a maximum of 100 points. Almost all studies violated one or more criteria for the risk of overestimation of cost savings. The most frequent problems were the use of average unit prices per inpatient day (not taking into account the decreasing intensity of care) and biased designs. Most studies found cost differences in favour of hospital-at-home; the range varied from savings of €8773 to a cost increase of €2316 per patient. CONCLUSION: Overall quality of studies was not good, with some exceptions. Many cost savings were probably overestimated.

Summarizing Patient Preferences for the Competitive Landscape of Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Options.

Objective. Quantitatively summarize patient preferences for European licensed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) disease-modifying treatment (DMT) options. Methods. To identify and summarize the most important RRMS DMT characteristics, a literature review, exploratory physician interviews, patient focus groups, and confirmatory physician interviews were conducted in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was developed and executed to measure patient preferences for the most important DMT characteristics. The resulting DCE data (n=799 and n=363 respondents in the United Kingdom and Germany, respectively) were analyzed using Bayesian mixed logit models. The estimated individual-level patient preferences were subsequently summarized using 3 additional analyses: the quality of the choice data was assessed using individual-level R2 estimates, individual-level preferences for the available DMTs were aggregated into DMT-specific preference shares, and a principal component analysis was performed to explain the patients' choice process. Results. DMT usage differed between RRMS patients in Germany and the United Kingdom but aggregate patient preferences were similar. Across countries, 42% of all patients preferred oral medications, 38% infusions, 16% injections, and 4% no DMT. The most often preferred DMT was natalizumab (26%) and oral DMT cladribine tablets (22%). The least often preferred were mitoxantrone and the beta-interferon injections (1%-3%). Patient preferences were strongly correlated with patients' MS disease duration and DMT experience, and differences in patient preferences could be summarized using 8 principle components that together explain 99% of the variation in patients' DMT preferences. Conclusion. This study summarizes patient preferences for the included DMTs, facilitates shared decision making along the dimensions that are relevant to RRMS patients, and introduces methods in the medical DCE literature that are ideally suited to summarize the impact of DMT introductions in preexisting treatment landscapes.

Exploring the Impact of Adding a Respiratory Dimension to the EQ-5D-5L.

Objectives. To evaluate the impact of adding a respiratory dimension (a bolt-on dimension) to the EQ-5D-5L health state valuations. Methods. Based on extensive regression and principal component analyses, 2 respiratory bolt-on candidates were formulated: R1, limitations in physical activities due to shortness of breath, and R2, breathing problems. Valuation interviews for the selected bolt-ons were performed with a representative sample from the Dutch general public using the standardized interview protocol and software of the EuroQol group. Hybrid models based on the combined time-tradeoff (TTO) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) data were estimated to assess whether the 5 levels of the respiratory bolt-on led to significant changes in utility values. Results. For each bolt-on candidate, slightly more than 200 valuation interviews were conducted. Mean TTO values and DCE choice probabilities for health states with a level 4 or 5 for the respiratory dimension were significantly lower compared with the same health states in the Dutch EQ-5D-5L valuation study without the respiratory dimension. Results of hybrid models showed that for the bolt-on "limitations in physical activities," the utility decrements were significant for level 3 (-0.055), level 4 (-0.087), and level 5 (-0.135). For "breathing problems," the utility decrements for the same levels were greater (-0.086, -0.219, and -0.327, respectively). Conclusions. The addition of each of the 2 respiratory bolt-ons to the EQ-5D-5L had a significant effect on the valuation of health states with severe levels for the bolt-on. The bolt-on dimension "breathing problems" showed the greatest utility decrements and therefore seems the most appropriate respiratory bolt-on dimension.

The Fold-in, Fold-out Design for DCE Choice Tasks: Application to Burden of Disease.

Background In discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), choice alternatives are described by attributes. The importance of each attribute can be quantified by analyzing respondents' choices. Estimates are valid only if alternatives are defined comprehensively, but choice tasks can become too difficult for respondents if too many attributes are included. Several solutions for this dilemma have been proposed, but these have practical or theoretical drawbacks and cannot be applied in all settings. The objective of the current article is to demonstrate an alternative solution, the fold-in, fold-out approach (FiFo). We use a motivating example, the ABC Index for burden of disease in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods Under FiFo, all attributes are part of all choice sets, but they are grouped into domains. These are either folded in (all attributes have the same level) or folded out (levels may differ). FiFo was applied to the valuation of the ABC Index, which included 15 attributes. The data were analyzed in Bayesian mixed logit regression, with additional parameters to account for increased complexity in folded-out questionnaires and potential differences in weight due to the folding status of domains. As a comparison, a model without the additional parameters was estimated. Results Folding out domains led to increased choice complexity for respondents. It also gave domains more weight than when it was folded in. The more complex regression model had a better fit to the data than the simpler model. Not accounting for choice complexity in the models resulted in a substantially different ABC Index. Conclusion Using a combination of folded-in and folded-out attributes is a feasible approach for conducting DCEs with many attributes.

How much does a heart valve implantation cost and what are the health care costs afterwards?

Objective: In the era of limited healthcare budgets, healthcare costs of heart valve implantations need to be considered to inform cost-effectiveness analyses. We aimed to provide age group-specific costs estimates of heart valve implantations, related complications and other healthcare utilisation following the intervention. Methods: We performed retrospective analyses of healthcare costs of patients who had undergone heart valve implantations in 2010-2013 and controls using claims data from Dutch health insurers. Heart valve implantations included surgical valve replacement and transcatheter valve implantation in all heart valve positions. Patients were divided in four age groups. Control groups were created by taking random samples of the Dutch population stratified by age, gender, socioeconomic status and comorbidities. We applied non-parametric bootstrapping to address uncertainty of the cost estimates. The association of patient and intervention characteristics with costs was determined by (multilevel) generalised linear models. Results: The baseline characteristics of 18 903 patients and 188 925 controls were comparable. The annual healthcare costs were substantially higher for surgical heart valve replacement patients than for controls, especially in the year of heart valve implantation. Factors associated with increased annual healthcare costs for patients were older age, female gender, comorbidities, low socioeconomic status and complications. Conclusions: We provided a comprehensive overview of age group-specific incidence of heart valve implantations, subsequent survival and complications as well as associated healthcare costs of all patients in the Netherlands. Our results provide real-world costs estimates that can be used as a benchmark for costs of future innovative heart valve implantations.

Multisystemic Therapy and Functional Family Therapy Compared on their Effectiveness Using the Propensity Score Method.

Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Functional Family Therapy (FFT) have overlapping target populations and treatment goals. In this study, these interventions were compared on their effectiveness using a quasi-experimental design. Between October, 2009 and June, 2014, outcome data were collected from 697 adolescents (mean age 15.3 (SD 1.48), 61.9% male) assigned to either MST or FFT (422 MST; 275 FFT). Data were gathered during Routine Outcome Monitoring. The primary outcome was externalizing problem behavior (Child Behavior Checklist and Youth Self Report). Secondary outcomes were the proportion of adolescents living at home, engaged in school or work, and who lacked police contact during treatment. Because of the non-random assignment, a propensity score method was used to control for observed pre-treatment differences. Because the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model guided treatment assignment, effectiveness was also estimated in youth with and without a court order as an indicator of their risk level. Looking at the whole sample, no difference in effect was found with regard to externalizing problems. For adolescents without a court order, effects on externalizing problems were larger after MST. Because many more adolescents with a court order were assigned to MST compared to FFT, the propensity score method could not balance the treatment groups in this subsample. In conclusion, few differences between MST and FFT were found. In line with the RNR model, higher risk adolescents were assigned to the more intensive treatment, namely MST. In the group with lower risk adolescents, this more intensive treatment was more effective in reducing externalizing problems.

Cost-Utility Analysis of High Molecular Weight Hyaluronic Acid for Knee Osteoarthritis in Everyday Clinical Care in Patients at a Working Age: An Economic Evaluation of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is associated with high medical costs and especially with high productivity costs, in particular in patients in their working years. High molecular weight (HMW) hyaluronic acid (HA) is an alternative treatment for nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, which are known for their serious side-effects. The cost-utility of intraarticular HMW-HA treatment in these patients is unknown, however, and was assessed in this study. METHODS: Secondary care patients ages 18-65 years with knee OA were randomized to usual care plus HMW-HA (intervention group) or to usual care only (control group). A cost-utility analysis over 52 weeks from the societal and health care perspective was performed. Uncertainty for costs, effects, and cost-utility ratio was analyzed by nonparametric bootstrapping. Baseline imbalance adjustment was done by inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: In total, 156 subjects were included (intervention group n = 77, control group n = 79). The total of productivity and medical costs was €475 higher in the intervention group at €7,754 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5,426, 10,436) versus €7,270 (95% CI 5,453, 9,262). The amount of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained during followup was also higher in the intervention group (0.779 versus 0.727). This variation resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €9,100/QALY from a societal perspective and €8,700/QALY from a health care perspective. When the maximum willingness to pay for conditions similar to knee OA is considered, the probability on cost-effectiveness is 64% and 86%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Intraarticular HMW-HA added to usual care for knee OA is probably cost-effective in the treatment of knee OA.

ABC Index: quantifying experienced burden of COPD in a discrete choice experiment and predicting costs.

OBJECTIVE: The Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool supports shared decision making between patient and caregiver. It includes a coloured balloon diagram to visualise patients' scores on burden indicators. We aim to determine the importance of each indicator from a patient perspective, in order to calculate a weighted index score and investigate whether that score is predictive of costs. DESIGN: Discrete choice experiment. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Primary care and secondary care in the Netherlands. 282 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 252 members of the general public participated. METHODS: Respondents received 14 choice questions and indicated which of two health states was more severe. Health states were described in terms of specific symptoms, limitations in physical, daily and social activities, mental problems, fatigue and exacerbations, most of which had three levels of severity. Weights for each item-level combination were derived from a Bayesian mixed logit model. Weights were rescaled to construct an index score from 0 (best) to 100 (worst). Regression models were used to find a classification of this index score in mild, moderate and severe that was discriminative in terms of healthcare costs. RESULTS: Fatigue, limitations in moderate physical activities, number of exacerbations, dyspnoea at rest and fear of breathing getting worse contributed most to the burden of disease. Patients assigned less weight to dyspnoea during exercise, listlessness and limitations with regard to strenuous activities. Respondents from the general public mostly agreed. Mild, moderate and severe burden of disease were defined as scores <20, 20-39 and ≥40. This categorisation was most predictive of healthcare utilisation and annual costs: €1368, €2510 and €9885, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The ABC Index is a new index score for the burden of COPD, which is based on patients' preferences. The classification of the index score into mild, moderate and severe is predictive of future healthcare costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR3788; Post-results.

Systematic Review and Quality Appraisal of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Pharmacologic Maintenance Treatment for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Methodological Considerations and Recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a highly prevalent chronic lung disease with considerable clinical and socioeconomic impact. Pharmacologic maintenance drugs (such as bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids) play an important role in the treatment of COPD. The cost effectiveness of these treatments has been frequently assessed, but studies to date have largely neglected the impact of treatment sequence and the exact stage of disease in which the drugs are used in real life. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to systematically review recently published articles that reported the cost effectiveness of COPD maintenance treatments, with a focus on key findings, quality and methodological issues. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search in Embase, PubMed, the UK NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS-EED) and EURONHEED (European Network of Health Economics Evaluation Databases) and included all relevant articles published between 2011 and 2015 in either Dutch, English or German. Main study characteristics, methods and outcomes were extracted and critically assessed. The Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) instrument was used as basis for quality assessment, but additional items were also addressed. RESULTS: The search identified 18 recent pharmacoeconomic analyses of COPD maintenance treatments. Papers reported the cost effectiveness of long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) monotherapy (n = 6), phosphodiesterase (PDE)-4 inhibitors (n = 4), long-acting beta agonist/inhaled corticosteroid (LABA/ICS) combinations (n = 4), LABA monotherapy (n = 2) and LABA/LAMA combinations (n = 2). All but two studies were funded by the manufacturer, and all studies indicated favourable cost effectiveness; however, the number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained was small. Less than half of the studies reported a COPD-specific outcome in addition to a generic outcome (mostly QALYs). Exacerbation and mortality rates were found to be the main drivers of cost effectiveness. According to the QHES, the quality of the studies was generally sufficient, but additional assessment revealed that most studies poorly represented the cost effectiveness of real-life medication use. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of studies showed that pharmacologic COPD maintenance treatment is cost effective, but most studies poorly reflected real-life drug use. Consistent and COPD-specific methodology is recommended.

Effectiveness of the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool on health-related quality of life in patients with COPD: a cluster randomised controlled trial in primary and hospital care.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the effectiveness of the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool on disease-specific quality of life in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) measured with the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), compared with usual care. METHODS: A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, in 39 Dutch primary care practices and 17 hospitals, with 357 patients with COPD (postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio <0.7) aged ≥40 years, who could understand and read the Dutch language. Healthcare providers were randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. The intervention group applied the ABC tool, which consists of a short validated questionnaire assessing the experienced burden of COPD, objective COPD parameter (eg, lung function) and a treatment algorithm including a visual display and treatment advice. The control group provided usual care. Researchers were blinded to group allocation during analyses. Primary outcome was the number of patients with a clinically relevant improvement in SGRQ score between baseline and 18-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC; a measurement of perceived quality of care). RESULTS: At 18-month follow-up, 34% of the 146 patients from 27 healthcare providers in the intervention group showed a clinically relevant improvement in the SGRQ, compared with 22% of the 148 patients from 29 healthcare providers in the control group (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.16). No difference was found on the CAT (-0.26 points (scores ranging from 0 to 40); 95% CI -1.52 to 0.99). The PACIC showed a higher improvement in the intervention group (0.32 points (scores ranging from 1 to 5); 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that use of the ABC tool may increase quality of life and perceived quality of care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR3788; Results.

e-Monitoring of Asthma Therapy to Improve Compliance in children (e-MATIC): a randomised controlled trial.

Real-time medication monitoring (RTMM) is a promising tool for improving adherence to inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), but has not been sufficiently tested in children with asthma. We aimed to study the effects of RTMM with short message service (SMS) reminders on adherence to ICS, asthma control, asthma-specific quality of life and asthma exacerbation rate; and to study the associated cost-effectiveness.In a multicentre, randomised controlled trial, children (aged 4-11 years) using ICS were recruited from five outpatient clinics and were given an RTMM device for 12 months. The intervention group also received tailored SMS reminders, sent only when a dose was at risk of omission. Outcome measures were adherence to ICS (RTMM data), asthma control (childhood asthma control test questionnaire), quality of life (paediatric asthma quality of life questionnaire) and asthma exacerbations. Costs were calculated from a healthcare and societal perspective.We included 209 children. Mean adherence was higher in the intervention group: 69.3% versus 57.3% (difference 12.0%, 95% CI 6.7%-17.7%). No differences were found for asthma control, quality of life or asthma exacerbations. Costs were higher in the intervention group, but this difference was not statistically significant.RTMM with tailored SMS reminders improved adherence to ICS, but not asthma control, quality of life or exacerbations in children using ICS for asthma.

Investigating the association between medication adherence and health-related quality of life in COPD: Methodological challenges when using a proxy measure of adherence.

BACKGROUND: The association between non-adherence to medication and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. Different ways to deal with methodological challenges to estimate this association have probably contributed to conflicting results. AIM: To investigate the association between medication adherence and HRQoL, thereby illustrating methodological challenges that need to be addressed. METHODS: We used longitudinal patient-level data from a cluster-randomized controlled trial (i.e. RECODE) including three-year data on type and dose of COPD maintenance medication prescribed and HRQoL (Clinical COPD Questionnaire [CCQ], st. George Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ], EuroQol 5-dimensions [EQ-5D]) of 511 patients. A linear mixed model was used to assess the association between adherence and HRQoL using a fixed cut-off of 80% of the proportion of days covered (PDC) to define adherence. Subsequently, we investigated the impact of differences in disease severity; lifestyle; and reversed causality, representing the methodological challenges. Additionally, we investigated the impact of changing the definition of adherence. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, and analyses adjusting for demographic characteristics only, SGRQ score was worse in the adherent compared to the non-adherent group. This association disappeared when correcting for disease severity and/or lifestyle. A better SGRQ score was predictive of decreased adherence in the following year. However, accounting for the previous HRQoL did not result in positive associations between adherence and HRQoL. When defining four categories of adherence, patients with a PDC between 80 and 99% had a significantly worse SGRQ score compared to patients with a PDC <60%, even after correction for lifestyle. There was no significant association between adherence and CCQ or EQ-5D. CONCLUSION: This study showed persistent methodological challenges in the investigation of the effect of medication adherence on HRQoL in COPD. A positive association of adherence and HRQoL was not found, even after adjusting for lifestyle, disease severity, and previous HRQoL.

Does the 2013 GOLD classification improve the ability to predict lung function decline, exacerbations and mortality: a post-hoc analysis of the 4-year UPLIFT trial.

BACKGROUND: The 2013 GOLD classification system for COPD distinguishes four stages: A (low symptoms, low exacerbation risk), B (high symptoms, low risk), C (low symptoms, high risk) and D (high symptoms, high risk). Assessment of risk is based on exacerbation history and airflow obstruction, whatever results in a higher risk grouping. The previous system was solely based on airflow obstruction. Earlier studies compared the predictive performance of new and old classification systems with regards to mortality and exacerbations. The objective of this study was to compare the ability of both classifications to predict the number of future (total and severe) exacerbations and mortality in a different patient population, and to add an outcome measure to the comparison: lung function decline. METHODS: Patient-level data from the UPLIFT trial were used to analyze 4-year survival in a Weibull model, with GOLD stages at baseline as covariates. A generalized linear model was used to compare the numbers of exacerbations (total and severe) per stage. Analyses were repeated with stages C and D divided into substages depending on lung function and exacerbation history. Lung function decline was analysed in a repeated measures model. RESULTS: Mortality increased from A to D, but there was no difference between B and C. For the previous GOLD stages 2-4, survival curves were clearly separated. Yearly exacerbation rates were: 0.53, 0.72 and 0.80 for stages 2-4; and 0.35, 0.45, 0.58 and 0.74 for A-D. Annual rates of lung function decline were: 47, 38 and 26 ml for stages 2-4 and 44, 48, 38 and 39 for stages A-D. With regards to model fit, the new system performed worse at predicting mortality and lung function decline, and better at predicting exacerbations. Distinguishing between the sub-stages of high-risk led to substantial improvements. CONCLUSIONS: The new classification system is a modest step towards a phenotype approach. It is probably an improvement for the prediction of exacerbations, but a deterioration for predicting mortality and lung function decline. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00144339 (September 2, 2005).

Not simply more of the same: distinguishing between patient heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty.

In cost-effectiveness (CE) Markov models, heterogeneity in the patient population is not automatically taken into account. We aimed to compare methods of dealing with heterogeneity on estimates of CE, using a case study in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We first present a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in which we sampled only from distributions representing parameter uncertainty. This ignores any heterogeneity. Next, we explored heterogeneity by presenting results for subgroups, using a method that samples parameter uncertainty simultaneously with heterogeneity in a single-loop PSA. Finally, we distinguished parameter uncertainty from heterogeneity in a double-loop PSA by performing a nested simulation within each PSA iteration. Point estimates and uncertainty differed substantially between methods. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) ranged from € 4900 to € 13,800. The single-loop PSA led to a substantially different shape of the CE plane and an overestimation of the uncertainty compared with the other 3 methods. The CE plane for the double-loop PSA showed substantially less uncertainty and a stronger negative correlation between the difference in costs and the difference in effects compared with the other methods. This came at the cost of higher calculation times. Not accounting for heterogeneity, subgroup analysis and the double-loop PSA can be viable options, depending on the decision makers' information needs. The single-loop PSA should not be used in CE research. It disregards the fundamental differences between heterogeneity and sampling uncertainty and overestimates uncertainty as a result.

Should I stay or should I go home? A latent class analysis of a discrete choice experiment on hospital-at-home.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed 1) to quantify the strength of patient preferences for different aspects of early assisted discharge in The Netherlands for patients who were admitted with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation and 2) to illustrate the benefits of latent class modeling of discrete choice data. This technique is rarely used in health economics. METHODS: Respondents made multiple choices between hospital treatment as usual (7 days) and two combinations of hospital admission (3 days) followed by treatment at home. The latter was described by a set of attributes. Hospital treatment was constant across choice sets. Respondents were patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a randomized controlled trial investigating the cost-effectiveness of early assisted discharge and their informal caregivers. The data were analyzed using mixed logit, generalized multinomial logit, and latent-class conditional logit regression. These methods allow for heterogeneous preferences across groups, but in different ways. RESULTS: Twenty-five percent of the respondents opted for hospital treatment regardless of the description of the early assisted discharge program, and 46% never opted for the hospital. The best model contained four latent classes of respondents, defined by different preferences for the hospital and caregiver burden. Preferences for other attributes were constant across classes. Attributes with the strongest effect on choices were the burden on informal caregivers and co-payments. Except for the number of visits, all attributes had a significant effect on choices in the expected direction. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable segments of respondents had fixed preferences for either treatment option. Applying latent class analysis was essential in quantifying preferences for attributes of early assisted discharge.

Informal caregiver strain, preference and satisfaction in hospital-at-home and usual hospital care for COPD exacerbations: results of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Informal caregivers play an important role in hospital-at-home schemes. However they may increase their burden, especially chronic diseases, like COPD. In the absence of clear differences in effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between hospital-at-home and usual hospital care, informal caregiver preferences play an important role. This study investigated informal caregiver strain, satisfaction and preferences for place of treatment with a community-based hospital-at-homes scheme for COPD exacerbations. METHOD: The study was part of a larger randomised controlled trial. By randomisation, patients were allocated to usual hospital care or hospital-at-home, which included discharge at day 4 of admission, followed by home treatment with homes visits by community nurses until day 7 of treatment. Patients allocated to usual hospital care received care as usual in the hospital and were discharged at day 7. Patients were asked if they had an informal caregiver and who this was. Patients and their caregivers were followed for 90 days. Informal caregiver strain was assessed with the caregiver strain index. Satisfaction and preference were assessed using questionnaires. All measurements were performed at the end of the 7-day treatment and the end of the 90-days follow-up. FINDINGS: Of the 139 patients, 124 had an informal caregiver, of whom three-quarter was the patients' spouse. There was no significant difference in caregiver strain between hospital-at-home and usual hospital care at both time points (mean difference at T+4 days 0.47 95% CI -0.96 to 1.91, p=0.514; mean difference at T+90 days 0.36 95% CI -1.85 to 1.35, p=0.634). At the end of the 7-day treatment, 33% (N=15) of caregivers of patients allocated to hospital treatment and 71% (N=37) of caregivers of patients allocated to home treatment preferred home treatment, if they could choose. Caregivers were satisfied with the treatment the patient received within hospital-at-home. CONCLUSION: There were no differences in caregiver strain between the community-based hospital-at-home scheme and usual hospital care. Most caregivers were satisfied with the treatment. In addition to other outcomes, our results support the wider implementation of hospital-at-home for COPD exacerbations.