The contribution of metabolic risk factors to cardiovascular mortality in Golestan cohort study: Population attributable fraction estimation.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global mortality and disability. Several studies demonstrated that metabolic risk factors increase cardiovascular mortality. The aim of this study is to examine CVDs deaths and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of their metabolic risk factors in Iran. Methods: This is a study on 8621 participants aged 45-75 years and older, recruited in the repeated measurement phase of the Golestan cohort study (GCS) in northeast of Iran. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). PAFs were calculated to enumerate CVDs mortality avoidable in the population if metabolic risk factors were eliminated. Results: The mortality of CVDs was attributable to metabolic factors, including high waist circumference (PAF, 28 %, [95 % CI: 16%-38 %]), high fasting blood sugar (FBS) (20 %, [15%-24 %]), overweight and obesity (19 %, [8%-28 %]), high blood pressure (16 %, [11%-21 %]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (8 %, [1%-15 %]), and high triglyceride (TG) (7 %, [3%-11 %]). Collectively, these metabolic risk factors accounted for 50 % of CVDs deaths. Females (67 %, [50%-78 %]) had a higher joint PAF of metabolic risk factors compared to males (43 %, [27%-55 %]). Conclusions: The pattern of CVDs mortality attributable to metabolic risk factors in this study is not the same as similar studies in other parts of the world and previous studies in Iran. It is imperative that CVDs risk factors be specifically evaluated and addressed in various populations due to variety in geographical and temporal patterns in contribution of metabolic risk factors to CVD mortality.

Burden and Epidemiology of Mental Disorders in the Middle East and North Africa from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Previous studies have mainly focused on individual mental disorders, and there is no study addressing the total burden of mental disorders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Aims: To evaluate the burden of mental disorders in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. Study Design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: We utilized global burden of disease data to examine the burden of 12 mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 across age groups, genders, and the 21 MENA countries. We collected data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), including both crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 people. Results: The DALY rate of mental disorders in MENA countries increased by 13.88% from 1,747.92 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 1990.5 per 100,000 people in 2019. The highest percentage increases in the DALY rates of mental disorders were observed for bulimia nervosa (35.69%), other mental health disorders (34.58%), and schizophrenia (33.02%) from 1990 to 2019. However, the DALY rates for idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-26.48%), conduct disorder (-23.91%), attentiondeficit/ hyperactivity disorder (-16.46%), and autism spectrum disorders (-4.12%) decreased in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the highest DALY rates for idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, anxiety disorders, and major depressive disorder were observed in age groups ≤ 4 years, 5-19 years, and ≥ 20 years, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of mental disorders was the highest in Palestine (2,396.9 per 100,000), Iran (2,295.8 per 100,000), and Lebanon (2,126.0 per 100,000) compared with other MENA countries in 2019. Conclusion: There has been a slight increase in the burden of mental disorders in the MENA region between 1990 and 2019. National policies should prioritize evidence-based preventive measures and ensure accessible treatment options for mental health disorders in the population, especially in the MENA region.

Organized physical activity and sedentary behaviors in children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder, cerebral palsy, and intellectual disability.

BACKGROUND: There is little data on physical activity (PA), organized PA (OPA), and sedentary behaviors in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and other neurodevelopmental disorders in developing countries. AIM: To examine OPA, non-OPA, and sedentary behaviors and their associated factors in children and adolescents with ASD, cerebral palsy (CP), and intellectual disability (ID). METHODS: A total of 1020 children and adolescents with ASD, CP, and ID were assessed regarding the child and family information as well as the Children's Leisure Activities Study Survey. RESULTS: The results showed that the OPA level was significantly lower than non-OPA in all groups. Furthermore, the OPA level was significantly lower in the CP group compared to ASD and ID groups (P < 0.001). Also, moderate (P < 0.001), vigorous (P < 0.05), and total (P < 0.001) physical activity levels were significantly different between all three groups, with the values being higher in the ASD group compared to the other two. The mean of the total sedentary behavior duration in the ASD group (1819.4 min/week, SD: 1680) was significantly lower than in the CP group (2687 min/week, SD: 2673) (P = 0.007) but not ID group (2176 min/week, SD: 2168.9) (P = 0.525). CONCLUSION: Our findings remark on the participation rate of PA, OPA, and sedentary behaviors of children and adolescents with ASD, CP, and ID in a developing country. In contrast, the need for developing standards of PA/OPA participation in neurodevelopmental disorders is discussed.

Physical Inactivity, Inequalities, and Disparities Across Districts of Iran: A STEPs Survey-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity in all districts of Iran and the disparities between subgroups defined by various measures. METHODS: Small area estimation method was employed to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity in districts based on the remaining districts in which data on the level of physical inactivity were available. Various comparisons on the estimations were done based on socioeconomic, sex, and geographical stratifications to determine the disparities of physical inactivity among districts of Iran. RESULTS: All districts of Iran had a higher prevalence of physical inactivity compared with the world average. The estimated prevalence of physical inactivity among all men in all districts was 46.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 45.9%-47.7%). The highest and lowest estimated disparity ratio of physical inactivity were 1.95 and 1.14 in males, and 2.25 and 1.09 in females, respectively. Females significantly had a higher prevalence of 63.5% (62.7%-64.3%). Among both sexes, the poor population and urban residents significantly had higher prevalence of physical inactivity than rich population and rural residents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of physical inactivity among Iranian adult population suggests the urgent need to adopt population-wide action plans and policies to handle this major public health problem and avert the probable burden.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of liver cirrhosis by cause from global burden of disease 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases are complex disorders with a known burden. Currently health systems have different approaches to dealing with this issue. The objective of this study is to describe the burden attributed to and quality of care for cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. METHODS: Data of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases extracted from Global-Burden-of-Diseases 2019. Four indicators, including mortality to incidence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, and years-of-life-lost (YLLs) to years-lived-with-disability (YLDs) ratio, were defined and combined by the principal-components-analysis to construct the Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). RESULTS: The global QCI of cirrhosis increased from 71.0 in 1990 to 79.3 in 2019. The QCI showed a favorable situation in higher SDI countries compared with lower SDI countries, with a QCI of 86.8 in high SDI countries and 60.1 in low SDI countries. The highest QCI was found in Western Pacific Region (90.2), and the lowest was for African Region (60.4). Highest QCI belonged to the 50-54 age group (99.5), and the lowest was for the 30.34 age group (70.9). Among underlying causes of cirrhosis, the highest QCI belonged to alcohol use, followed by hepatitis C and NAFLD with QCIs of 86.1, 85.3, and 81.1. CONCLUSIONS: There was a considerable variation in the QCI of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. Countries with low QCI, mainly located in developing regions, need organized action to control the burden of cirrhosis and its underlying causes and improve their quality of care.

Regional burden of chronic kidney disease in North Africa and Middle East during 1990-2019; Results from Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Objectives: Updating burden data of chronic kidney disease (CKD) as one of the most prevalent non-communicable diseases is essential for proper provision of healthcare by policymakers. We aimed to estimate the burden of CKD and its attributed burden in North Africa and Middle East region (NAME) during 1990-2019. Methods: The CKD-related Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 estimates were extracted from Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website. Results: In 2019, 2,034,879 new CKD cases (95% Uncertainty interval 1,875,830 to 2,202,724) with an age-standardized incidence rate of 447.5 (415.1 to 482.8) per 100,000 was reported, showing a 70.9% increase in the past 30 years. CKD led to 111,812 deaths (96,421 to 130,853) with an age-standardized rate of 30.4 (26.3 to 35.4) per 100,000. The highest increase and decrease in the mortality rate were estimated in Morocco 21.8% (-8.9 to 51.6) and Kuwait -41.5% (-51.2 to -29.1). In 2019, CKD was responsible for 744.4 (646.1 to 851.8) age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mostly contributed to "other and unspecified causes" [237.2 (191.1 to 288.4)], type 2 diabetes [205.9 (162.4 to 253.6)], and hypertension [203.3 (165.8 to 243)]. An increase was noted in DALYs from ages 25-29 and surged with an accelerating pattern by age. Kidney dysfunction, high systolic blood pressure, and high body mass index ranked as the top three risk factors for the disorder. Conclusions: Our study raised an alarm regarding the increasing CKD burden in NAME. There is an urgency to deal with hypertension and overweight/obesity at the primary care level, implementing CKD screening for at-risk groups, and facilitating the accessibility to appropriate treatments.

Quality of care of peptic ulcer disease worldwide: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) affects four million people worldwide annually and has an estimated lifetime prevalence of 5-10% in the general population. Worldwide, there are significant heterogeneities in coping approaches of healthcare systems with PUD in prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. Quantifying and benchmarking health systems' performance is crucial yet challenging to provide a clearer picture of the potential global inequities in the quality of care. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality-of-care and inequities for PUD among age groups and sexes worldwide. METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019. Principal-Component-Analysis was used to combine age-standardized mortality-to-incidence-ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years-to-prevalence-ratio, prevalence-to-incidence-ratio, and years-of-life-lost-to-years-lived-with-disability-into a single proxy named Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). QCI was used to compare the quality of care among countries. QCI's validity was investigated via correlation with the cause-specific Healthcare-Access-and-Quality-index, which was acceptable. Inequities were presented among age groups and sexes. Gender Disparity Ratio was obtained by dividing the score of women by that of men. RESULTS: Global QCI was 72.6 in 1990, which increased by 14.6% to 83.2 in 2019. High-income-Asia-pacific had the highest QCI, while Central Latin America had the lowest. QCI of high-SDI countries was 82.9 in 1990, which increased to 92.9 in 2019. The QCI of low-SDI countries was 65.0 in 1990, which increased to 76.9 in 2019. There was heterogeneity among the QCI-level of countries with the same SDI level. QCI typically decreased as people aged; however, this gap was more significant among low-SDI countries. The global Gender Disparity Ratio was close to one and ranged from 0.97 to 1.03 in 100 of 204 countries. CONCLUSION: QCI of PUD improved dramatically during 1990-2019 worldwide. There are still significant heterogeneities among countries on different and similar SDI levels.

Assessing the effect of socioeconomic factors on prevalence of dyslipidemia among iranian adult population; district level analysis from 2016 STEPS national study using small area estimation.

Background: Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally and dyslipidemia plays a critical role in the development of this condition. This study aimed to analyze the potential impact of socioeconomic factors on the prevalence of dyslipidemia at district level in Iran. Understanding these factors is important for development of future risk factor control programs. Methods: We used the nationwide Iran STEPwise approach to risk factor Surveillance (STEPS) 2016 survey as a representative dataset on the Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) risk factors in Iran. To obtain a district level dyslipidemia estimates, we utilized the small area estimation method with a Bayesian spatial hierarchical multilevel regression and multilevel mixed models. The principal component analysis was applied to derive household wealth index. For evaluation of education, successful years of schooling was calculated at district level. Urbanization ratio was defined as the proportion of residents in the urban area to the urban and rural areas for each district. Results: The highest difference was found for hypercholesterolemia coverage with 9.11 times difference among the lowest and highest prevalence across the country's district for males. Men with lower income, lower urbanization, and lower education levels had lower values of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and higher level of hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia (P-value < 0.001). Triglyceride levels were directly correlated with all analyzed socioeconomic factors in both females and males (P-value < 0.001). Conclusion: We demonstrated that there is an inverse relationship between socioeconomic levels and dyslipidemia indices as populations with higher socioeconomic levels consistently had higher mean dyslipidemia levels. Our findings provide an excellent fundamental framework for healthcare administrators and policymakers to set goals and pursue effective preventive strategies. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-022-01027-x.

A new model for optimization of diabetes clinics with the case study in Iran.

Objective: This study presented a new model for optimal assignment of human resources to 3-level defined clinics to improve the management of diabetes. Methods: First, the data of population and prevalence of diabetes and data about complications were gathered. Then, the number of needed visits was calculated for different classes of diabetic people using guidelines. On the supply side, the maximum number of available visits for a given year by a given specialty was calculated. Two scenarios were considered. The first scenario calculated the number of needed specialties to cover the guideline needs, while the second real-world scenario used human resource data to optimize the assignment of human resources to different levels of clinics. Results: The highest and lowest required specialties per year are 2780 General practitioners (GPs) and 492 gastroenterologists. Seven hundred forty-one endocrinologists or internists are required each year to cover all the needs. The highest and lowest number of the available specialties were 4967 GPs and 35 nutritionists. 81% of cities can cover basic services, while even the lowest level of coverage is not possible in 19% of districts. Conclusions: The present study's findings advise the policymakers to train human resources based on available evidence and distribute the human resources based on an evidence-based model. This could be achieved using the private section resources. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-021-00939-4.

Global, regional, and national quality of care of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: To improve health outcomes to their maximum level, defining indices to measure healthcare quality and accessibility is crucial. In this study, we implemented the novel Quality of Care Index (QCI) to estimate the quality and accessibility of care for patients with gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBBTC) in 195 countries, 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, and sex groups. METHOD: This cross-sectional study extracted estimates on GBBTC burden from the GBD 2017, which presents population-based estimates on GBBTC burden for higher than 15-year-old patients from 1990 to 2017. Four secondary indices indicating quality of care were chosen, comprising Mortality to incidence, Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) to prevalence, prevalence to incidence, and years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD) ratios. Then, the whole dataset was analyzed using Principal Component Analysis to combine the four indices and create a single all-inclusive measure named QCI. The QCI was scaled to the 0-100 range, with 100 indicating the best quality of care among countries. Gender Disparity Ratio (GDR) was defined as the female to male QCI ratio to show gender inequity throughout the regions and countries. RESULTS: Global QCI score for GBBTC was 33.5 in 2017, which has increased by 29% since 1990. There was a considerable gender disparity in favor of men (GDR = 0.74) in 2017, showing QCI has moved toward gender inequity since 1990 (GDR = 0.85). Quality of care followed a heterogeneous pattern among regions and countries and was positively correlated with the countries' developmental status reflected in SDI (r = 0.7; CI 95%: 0.61-0.76; P value< 0.001). Accordingly, High-income North America (QCI = 72.4) had the highest QCI; whereas, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (QCI = 3) had the lowest QCI among regions. Patients aged 45 to 80 had lower QCI scores than younger and older adults. The highest QCI score was for the older than 95 age group (QCI = 54), and the lowest was for the 50-54 age group (QCI = 26.0). CONCLUSIONS: QCI improved considerably from 1990 to 2017; however, it showed heterogeneous distribution and inequity between sex and age groups. In each regional context, plans from countries with the highest QCI and best gender equity should be disseminated and implemented in order to decrease the overall burden of GBBTC.

Disparities and spatial variations of high salt intake in Iran: a subnational study of districts based on the small area estimation method.

OBJECTIVE: High salt intake is one of the leading diet-related risk factors for several non-communicable diseases. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of high salt intake in Iran. DESIGN: A modelling study by the small area estimation method, based on a nationwide cross-sectional survey, Iran STEPwise approach to risk factor Surveillance (STEPS) 2016. The modelling estimated the prevalence of high salt intake, defined as a daily salt intake ≥ 5 g in all districts of Iran based on data from available districts. The modelling results were provided in different geographical and socio-economic scales to make the comparison possible across the country. SETTING: 429 districts of all provinces of Iran, 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 18 635 salt intake measurements from individuals 25 years old and above who participated in the Iran STEPS 2016 survey. RESULTS: All districts in Iran had a high prevalence of high salt intake. The estimated prevalence of high salt intake among females of all districts ranged between 72·68 % (95 % UI 58·48, 84·81) and 95·04 % (95 % UI 87·10, 100). Estimated prevalence for males ranged between 88·44 % (95 % UI 80·29, 96·15) and 98·64 % (95 % UI 94·97, 100). In all categorisations, males had a significantly higher prevalence of high salt intake. Among females, the population with the lower economic status had a higher salt consumption than the participants with higher economic status by investigating the concentration index. CONCLUSIONS: Findings of this study highlight the high salt intake as a prominent risk factor in all Iran regions, despite some variations in different scales. More suitable population-wide policies are warranted to handle this public health issue in Iran.

Population attributable fraction estimates of cardiovascular diseases in different levels of plasma total cholesterol in a large-scale cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and treatment coverage.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of deaths among non-communicable diseases. Arguments about the best prevention strategy to control CVDs' risk factors continue. We evaluated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of CVDs in different levels of plasma cholesterol. METHODS: Patients' data were obtained from Iran STEPs 2016 study. In phase 0 we estimated PAF regardless of cholesterol levels and clinical factors. In phase 1 we calculated PAF based on three levels of cholesterol (<200, 200-240, ≥240 mg/dl). In phase 2 we estimated PAF in 3 groups considering lipid-lowering drugs. In phase 3 all treated participants and not treated hypercholesterolemic people were included, to evaluate the impact of treatment. Estimations were done for Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and ischemic stroke (IS), and for two sex. RESULTS: In phase 0, the highest PAF for IHD and IS were 0.35 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.41) and 0.22 (0.18-0.27) for females and 0.27 (0.22-0.32) and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for males. In phase 1, the highest PAF belonged to population with cholesterol ≥240 mg/dl and IHD, as 0.90 (0.85-0.94) for females, and 0.90 (0.85-0.96) for males. In phase 2, the pre-hypercholesterolemic group had higher PAFs than the hypercholesteremic group in most of the population. Phase 3 showed treatment coverage significantly lowered fractions in all age groups, for both causes. CONCLUSION: An urgent action plan and a change in preventive programs of health guidelines are needed to stop the vast burden of hypercholesterolemia in the pre-hypercholesterolemic population. Population-based prevention strategies need to be more considered to control further CVDs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-020-00673-3.