Examining Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic for Renters Threatened With Eviction.

Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Multidimensional well-being of US households at a fine spatial scale using fused household surveys.

Social science often relies on surveys of households and individuals. Dozens of such surveys are regularly administered by the U.S. government. However, they field independent, unconnected samples with specialized questions, limiting research questions to those that can be answered by a single survey. The presented data comprise the fusion onto the American Community Survey (ACS) microdata of select donor variables from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) of 2015, the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) of 2017, the American Housing Survey (AHS) of 2019, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey - Interview (CEI) for the years 2015-2019. This results in an integrated microdataset of household attributes and well-being dimensions that can be analyzed to address research questions in ways that are not currently possible. The underlying statistical techniques, designed under the fusionACS project, are included in an open-source R package, fusionModel, that provides generic tools for the creation, analysis, and validation of fused microdata.

The impacts of rent burden and eviction on mortality in the United States, 2000-2019.

Investments in stable, affordable housing may be an important tool for improving population health, especially in the context of rising costs and evictions for American renters. Still, a lack of longitudinal data linking these exposures to health outcomes has limited prior research. In this study, we use linked administrative data to estimate the associations of rent burden and eviction with all-cause mortality. We constructed a novel dataset linking renters in the long-form 2000 Census (N = 6,587,000) to mortality follow-up through 2019 from the Census Numident file. To measure exposure to eviction, we further linked this dataset to 38 million eviction records between 2000 and 2016 using names and addresses. For a subsample of renters, we also measured within-individual changes in rent burden between 2000 and 2008-2012 by linking to the American Community Survey. We estimated the associations of rent burden and eviction with mortality using Cox proportional-hazards models and discrete-time hazard models adjusted for individual, household, neighborhood, and state characteristics, examining varying associations by cohort, race, gender, and eviction risk. Higher baseline rent burden, increases in rent burden during midlife, and evictions were all associated with increased mortality. Compared to a baseline rent burden of 30%, a burden of 70% was associated with 12% (95% confidence interval = 11-13%) higher mortality. A 20-point increase in rent burden between 2000 and 2008-2012 was associated with 16% (12-19%) higher mortality through 2019. An eviction filing without judgment was associated with a 19% (15-23%) increase in mortality and an eviction judgment was associated with a 40% (36-43%) increase. Associations were larger for those at lower predicted risk of eviction. These findings reveal how rising costs and evictions are shaping mortality for American renters. Policies designed to increase the supply of affordable housing and prevent eviction may lead to widespread improvements in population health.

A comprehensive demographic profile of the US evicted population.

Millions of American renter households every year are threatened with eviction, an event associated with severe negative impacts on health and economic well-being. Yet we know little about the characteristics of individuals living in these households. Here, we link 38 million eviction court cases to US Census Bureau data to show that 7.6 million people, including 2.9 million children, faced the threat of eviction each year between 2007 and 2016. Overall, adult renters living with at least one child in their home were threatened with eviction at an annual rate of 10.4%, twice that of adults without children (5.0%). We demonstrate not only that the average evicted household includes one child, but that the most common age to experience eviction in America is during childhood. We also find that previous studies have underestimated racial disparities in eviction risk: Despite making up only 18.6% of all renters, Black Americans account for 51.1% of those affected by eviction filings and 43.4% of those evicted. Roughly one in five Black Americans living in a renter household is threatened with eviction annually, while one in ten is evicted. Black-White disparities persist across levels of income and vary by state. In providing the most comprehensive description to date of the population of US renters facing eviction, our study reveals a significant undercount of individuals impacted by eviction and motivates policies designed to stabilize housing for children and families.

Decomposing County-Level Working-Age Mortality Trends in the United States Between 1999-2001 and 2015-2017.

Studies have documented significant geographic divergence in U.S. mortality in recent decades. However, few studies have examined the extent to which county-level trends in mortality can be explained by national, state, and metropolitan-level trends, and which county-specific factors contribute to remaining variation. Combining vital statistics data on deaths and Census data with time-varying county-level contextual characteristics, we use a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze the associations between working-age mortality, state, metropolitan status and county-level socioeconomic conditions, family characteristics, labor market conditions, health behaviors, and population characteristics between 2000 and 2017. Additionally, we employ a Shapley decomposition to illustrate the additive contributions of each changing county-level characteristic to the observed mortality change in U.S. counties between 1999-2001 and 2015-2017 over and above national, state, and metropolitan-nonmetropolitan mortality trends. Mortality trends varied by state and metropolitan status as did the contribution of county-level characteristics. Metropolitan status predicted more of the county-level variance in mortality than state of residence. Of the county-level characteristics, changes in percent college-graduates, smoking prevalence and the percent of foreign-born population contributed to a decline in all-cause mortality over this period, whereas increasing levels of poverty, unemployment, and single-parent families and declines manufacturing employment slowed down these improvements, and in many nonmetropolitan areas were large enough to overpower the positive contributions of the protective factors.

Early life patterns of criminal legal system involvement: Inequalities by race/ethnicity, gender, and parental education.

BACKGROUND: Contacts with the criminal legal system have consequences for a host of outcomes. Still, early life age patterns of system involvement remain to be better understood. OBJECTIVE: We estimate cumulative risks of arrest, probation, and incarceration from childhood through early adulthood and assess disparities by race/ethnicity, gender, and parental education. METHODS: Data come from the Transition to Adulthood Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 2,736). We use Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models to estimate cumulative risks of arrest, probation, and incarceration across the early life course and document disparities by race/ethnicity, gender, and parental education, as well as at their intersections. RESULTS: Criminal legal system involvement is common among recent cohorts, but Black and Latinx boys and young men face especially high risks. Among Black men whose highest-educated parent completed high school or less, an estimated six in ten had been arrested, four in ten had experienced probation, and four in ten had been incarcerated by age 26. Among Latinx men whose highest-educated parent completed high school or less, an estimated four in ten had been arrested and one in four had been incarcerated by age 26. Black women also experienced high risks, with an estimated one in four arrested by age 26. CONTRIBUTION: We document early life patterns of criminal legal system involvement among young people who came of age during the expansion of proactive policing and mass incarceration in the United States, providing important context for understanding the role of the system in generating and exacerbating life course inequalities.

Growing up and moving out: Migration and the demographic transition in low- and middle-income nations.

International migration has increased since 1990, with increasing numbers of migrants originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Efforts to explain this compositional shift have focused on wage gaps and other push and pull factors but have not adequately considered the role of demographic factors. In many LMICs, child mortality has fallen without commensurate economic growth and amid high fertility. This combination increases young adult populations and is associated with greater outmigration: in the poorest countries, we estimate that a one-percentage-point increase in the five-year lagged growth rate of the population of 15-24-year-olds was associated with a 15 per cent increase in all-age outmigrants, controlling for other factors. Increases in growth of young adult populations led to 20.4 million additional outmigrants across 80 countries between 1990 and 2015. Understanding the determinants of these migration shifts should help policymakers in origin and destination countries to maximize their potential positive effects.

Structural Racism and Quantitative Causal Inference: A Life Course Mediation Framework for Decomposing Racial Health Disparities.

Quantitative studies of racial health disparities often use static measures of self-reported race and conventional regression estimators, which critics argue is inconsistent with social-constructivist theories of race, racialization, and racism. We demonstrate an alternative counterfactual approach to explain how multiple racialized systems dynamically shape health over time, examining racial inequities in cardiometabolic risk in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. This framework accounts for the dynamics of time-varying confounding and mediation that is required in operationalizing a "race" variable as part of a social process (racism) rather than a separable, individual characteristic. We decompose the observed disparity into three types of effects: a controlled direct effect ("unobserved racism"), proportions attributable to interaction ("racial discrimination"), and pure indirect effects ("emergent discrimination"). We discuss the limitations of counterfactual approaches while highlighting how they can be combined with critical theories to quantify how interlocking systems produce racial health inequities.

Ecological factors associated with suicide mortality among non-Hispanic whites.

BACKGROUND: In this paper, we examine the ecological factors associated with death rates from suicide in the United States in 1999 and 2017, a period when suicide mortality increased in the United States. We focus on Non-Hispanic Whites, who experienced the largest increase in suicide mortality. We ask whether variation in suicide mortality among commuting zones can be explained by measures of the social and economic environment and access to lethal means used to kill oneself in one's area of residence. METHODS: We use vital statistics data on deaths and Census Bureau population estimates and define area of residence as one of 704 commuting zones. We estimate separate models for men and women at ages 20-64 and 65 and above. We measure economic environment by percent of the workforce in manufacturing and the unemployment rate and social environment by marital status, educational attainment, and religious participation. We use gun sellers and opioid prescriptions as measures of access to lethal means. RESULTS: We find that the strongest contextual predictors of higher suicide mortality are lower rates of manufacturing employment and higher rates of opiate prescriptions for all age/sex groups, increased gun accessibility for men, and religious participation for older people. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic characteristic and access to lethal means explain much of the variation in suicide mortality rates across commuting zones, but do not account for the pervasive national-level increase in suicide mortality between 1999 and 2017.