Independent Predictors of Repeat Emergency Room Presentations: Insights from a Cohort of 1066 Consecutive Patients with Non-Cardiac Chest Pain Generating 4770 Repeat Presentations.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Chest pain (CP) is one of the most frequent presentations to the emergency department (ED), a large proportion of which is non-cardiac chest pain (NCCP). Repeat attendances to ED are common and impose considerable burden to overstretched departments. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine drivers for repeat ED presentations using NCCP as the primary cause of index presentation. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 1066 consecutive presentations with NCCP to a major urban hospital ED in North England. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), a postcode-derived validated index of deprivation, was computed. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was determined by reference to known comorbidity variables. Repeat presentation to ED to any national hospital was determined by a national linked database (population 53.5 million). Independent predictors of ED representation were computed using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Median age was 43 (IQR 28-59), and 50.8% were male. Furthermore, 27.8%, 8.1% and 3.8% suffered from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension and diabetes mellitus, respectively. The most frequent diagnoses, using ICD-10 coding, were non-cardiac chest pain (55.1%), followed by respiratory conditions (14.7%). One-year incidence of adjudicated myocardial infarction, urgent or emergency coronary revascularisation and all-cause death was 0.6%, 2% and 5.3%, respectively. There was a total of 4770 ED repeat presentations 1 year prior to or following index presentation with NCCP in this cohort. Independent (multivariate) predictors for frequent re-presentation (defined as ≥2 representations) were a history of COPD (OR [odds ratio] 2.06, p = 0.001), previous MI (OR3.6, p = 0.020) and a Charlson comorbidity index ≥1 (OR 1.51, p = 0.030). The frequency of previous MI was low as only 3% had sustained a previous MI. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis indicates that COPD and complex health care needs (represented by high CCI), but not socio-economic deprivation, should be health policy targets for lessening repeat ED presentations. What is already known on this topic: Repeat presentations with non-ischaemic chest pain are common, placing a considerable burden on emergency departments. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: COPD and complex health care needs, denoted by Charlson comorbidity index, are implicated as drivers for repeat presentation to accident and emergency department. Socio-economic deprivation was not an independent predictor of re-presentation. How might this study affect research, practice, or policy: Community-based support for COPD and complex health care needs may reduce frequency of ED attendance.

Care After Presenting with Seizures (CAPS): An analysis of the impact of a seizure referral pathway and nurse support on neurology referral rates for patients admitted with a seizure.

INTRODUCTION: The National Audit of Seizure Management in Hospitals (NASH) identified low referral rates to neurology and epilepsy services after an emergency department attendance or admission with a seizure. METHODS: National Health Service Secondary Users Service (SUS) data were used to assess the impact of a seizure pathway at seven hospitals in Cheshire & Merseyside, which was implemented in 2014. Three of these hospitals also had a nurse employed part-time to support the pathway. Patients admitted with a seizure between 2011 and 2018 inclusive were identified using an algorithm based on ICD-10 codes, and the primary outcome was a neurology referral within 3 months of admission. Regression models were used to assess the impact of age, deprivation and comorbidity on post admission clinic referral rates. RESULTS: 13,285 admissions with seizure were included in the analysis. 5,677 had not attended a neurology clinic appointment in the 12 months before the admission. The percentage of whom that were offered an appointment following the admission was: 16.0% before the pathway and 35.9% with the nurse-supported pathway, which was significant in the regression model. 4,700 admissions had attended a neurology clinic appointment in the 12 months before the admission. Of this group, the percentage of whom that were offered an appointment following the admission was: 55.2% before the pathway and 62.4% with the nurse-supported pathway, an increase that was not significant in the regression model. The regression models identified significant health inequalities whereby older patients, those with comorbidities and those living in deprived areas were significantly less likely to be referred. CONCLUSION: Neurology out-patient appointment rates following an admission with seizures are low, worryingly so for those with no neurology appointment in the previous 12 months. A nurse-supported pathway can improve appointment rates, but the effect is modest. Further service redesign is required; the impact of which should be rigorously evaluated.

Risk of Major Bleeding With Potent Antiplatelet Agents After an Acute Coronary Event: A Comparison of Ticagrelor and Clopidogrel in 5116 Consecutive Patients in Clinical Practice.

Background Major bleeding after acute coronary syndrome predicts a poor outcome but is challenging to define. The choice of antiplatelet influences bleeding risk. Methods and Results Major bleeding, subsequent myocardial infarction (MI), and all-cause mortality to 1 year were compared in consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome treated with clopidogrel (n=2491 between 2011 and 2013) and ticagrelor (n=2625 between 2012 and 2015) in 5 English hospitals. Clinical outcomes were identified from national hospital episode statistics. Bleeding and MI events were independently adjudicated by 2 experienced clinicians, blinded to drug, sequence, and year. Bleeding events were categorized using Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 3 to 5 and PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) criteria and MI by the Third Universal Definition. Multivariable regression analysis was used to adjust outcomes for case mix. The median age was 68 years and 34% were women. 39% underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and 13% coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Clinical outcome data were 100% complete for bleeding and 99.7% for MI. No statistically significant difference was seen in crude or adjusted major bleeding for ticagrelor compared with clopidogrel (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 3-5, hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% CI, 0.90-1.68; P=0.2, PLATO major adjusted HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.98-1.74; P=0.07) except in the non-coronary artery bypass graft cohort (n=4464), where bleeding was more frequent with ticagrelor (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 3-5, adjusted HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.09-2.31; P=0.017; and PLATO major HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.18-2.37; P=0.004). There was no difference in crude or adjusted subsequent MI (adjusted HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.87-1.64; P=0.27). Crude mortality was higher in the clopidogrel group but not after adjustment, using either Cox proportional hazards or propensity matched population (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.76-1.10; P=0.21) as was the case for stroke (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52-1.32; P=0.42). Conclusions This observational study indicates that the apparent benefit of ticagrelor demonstrated in a clinical trial population may not be observed in the broader population encountered in clinical practice. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02484924.

Identification of high-risk non-ST elevation myocardial infarction at presentation to emergency department. A prospective observational cohort study in North West England.

OBJECTIVES: Early access to invasive coronary angiography and revascularisation for high-risk non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) improves outcomes and is supported by current guidelines. We sought to determine the most effective criteria at presentation to emergency department (ED) to identify high-risk NSTEMI. SETTING: Secondary care centre northwest England with national follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: 1642 consecutive patients (median age 59, 52% male) presenting to ED with a primary symptom of chest pain in whom there is suspicion of NSTEMI. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MEASURES: Multivariate logistic regression analysis for the prediction of all-cause death (primary) and major adverse cardiac event (MACE defined as all-cause death, unplanned coronary revascularisation and adjudicated NSTEMI (third universal definition)) (secondary measure) at 1 year. RESULTS: The incidence of adjudicated NSTEMI was 10.7%, and 1-year mortality was 6.3%. Independent predictors for all-cause death at 1 year were Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) >140, age (per decade increase) and high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) >50 ng/L. hs-cTnT >50 ng/L was associated with adjudicated index presentation NSTEMI in the greatest proportion of patients (61.7%). When using MACE at 12 months, as opposed to all-cause death, as an end point History, ECG, Age, Risk factors and Troponin (HEART) score ≥7 was included in the multivariate model and had better prediction of index NSTEMI than GRACE>140. Combining hs-cTnT >50 ng/L and a second independent predictor identified both a high proportion of index NSTEMI and elevated risk of all-cause death at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: hs-cTnT >50 ng/L or HEART score ≥7 appear effective strategies to identify high-risk NSTEMI at presentation to emergency room with chest pain. Multicentre prospective studies enriched with early presenters, and with competitor high-sensitive and point-of-care troponins, are required to validate and extend these findings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02581540.

Reducing variation in hospital mortality for alcohol-related liver disease in North West England.

BACKGROUND: Variations in emergency care quality for alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) have been highlighted. AIM: To determine whether introduction of a regional quality improvement (QI) programme was associated with a reduction in potentially avoidable inpatient mortality. METHOD: Retrospective observational cohort study using hospital administrative data spanning a 1-year period before (2014/2015) and 3 years after a QI initiative at seven acute hospitals in North West England. The intervention included serial audit of a bundle of process metrics. An algorithm was developed to identify index ("first") emergency admissions for ARLD (n = 3887). We created a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) to compare relative mortality and regression models to examine risk-adjusted odds of death. RESULTS: In 2014/2015, three of seven hospitals had an SMR above the upper control limit ("outliers"). Adjusted odds of death for patients admitted to outlier hospitals was higher than non-outliers (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.32-3.44, P = 0.002). Following the QI programme there was a step-wise reduction in outliers (none in 2017/2018). Odds of death was 67% lower in 2017/2018 compared to 2014/2015 at original outlier hospitals, but unchanged at other hospitals. Process audit performance of outliers was worse than non-outliers at baseline, but improved after intervention. CONCLUSIONS: There was a reduction in unexplained variation in hospital mortality following the QI intervention. This challenges the pessimism that is prevalent for achieving better outcomes for patients with ARLD. Notwithstanding the limitations of an uncontrolled observational study, these data provide hope that co-ordinated efforts to drive adoption of evidence-based practice can save lives.

Computed tomography in patients with epileptic seizures admitted acutely to hospital: A population level analysis of routinely collected healthcare data.

Approximately 1.4% of emergency medical admissions are due to epileptic seizures. For the majority of such cases, computed tomography (CT) will not inform acute management and is unnecessary.Pseudonymised, routinely collected data from seven hospitals within the Cheshire and Merseyside area of the UK were analysed. All patients with emergency admissions to hospital due to seizures between 2014 and 2017 were included. Use of CT of the head was identified from routine coding.We identified 4,183 individuals with an acute seizure admission, of which over 30% received a CT of the head. There was significant variation in CT among hospital trusts.The rate of CT for patients admitted with seizures is high and CT is not being directed to those where they may be indicated. Integrated care pathways and guidelines are required to improve the management of patients presenting acutely with seizures.

Nationwide improvement in outcomes of emergency admission for ulcerative colitis in England, 2005-2013.

BACKGROUND: The UK IBD Audit Programme reported improved inpatient care processes for ulcerative colitis (UC) between 2005 and 2013. There are no independent data describing national or institutional trends in patient outcomes over this period. AIM: To assess the association between the outcome of emergency admission for UC and year of treatment. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of hospital administrative data, focused on all emergency admissions to English public hospitals with a discharge diagnosis of UC. We extracted case mix factors (age, sex, co-morbidity, emergency bed days in last year, deprivation status), outcomes of index admission (death and first surgery), 30-day emergency readmissions (all-cause, and selected causes) and outcome of readmission. RESULTS: There were 765 deaths and 3837 unplanned first operations in 44 882 emergency admissions, with 5311 emergency readmissions (with a further 171 deaths and 517 first operations). Case mix adjusted odds of death for any given year were 9% lower (OR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89-0.94), and that for emergency surgery 3% lower (OR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) than the preceding year. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis (admissions lasting ≥4 days). There was no reduction in odds for all-cause readmission, but rates for venous thromboembolism declined significantly. Analysis of institutional-level metrics across 136 providers showed a stepwise reduction in outliers for mortality and unplanned surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of death and unplanned surgery for UC patients admitted as emergencies declined consistently, as did unexplained variation between hospitals. Risk of readmission was unchanged (over 1 in 10). Multiple factors are likely to explain these nationwide trends.

A direct comparison of decision rules for early discharge of suspected acute coronary syndromes in the era of high sensitivity troponin.

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that a single high sensitivity troponin at limits of detection (LOD HSTnT) (<5 ng/l) combined with a presentation non-ischaemic electrocardiogram is superior to low-risk Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) (<75), Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) (≤1) and History, ECG, Age, Risk factors and Troponin (HEART) score (≤3) as an aid to early, safe discharge for suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, risk scores were computed in consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the Emergency Room of a large English hospital. Adjudication of myocardial infarction, as per third universal definition, involved a two-physician, blinded, independent review of all biomarker positive chest pain re-presentations to any national hospital. The primary and secondary outcome was a composite of type 1 myocardial infarction, unplanned coronary revascularisation and all cause death (MACE) at six weeks and one year. RESULTS: Of 3054 consecutive presentations with chest pain 1642 had suspected acute coronary syndrome (52% male, median age 59 years, 14% diabetic, 20% previous myocardial infarction). Median time from chest pain to presentation was 9.7 h. Re-presentations occurred in eight hospitals with 100% follow-up achieved. Two hundred and eleven (12.9%) and 279 (17%) were adjudicated to suffer MACE at six weeks and one year respectively. Only HEART ≤3 (negative predictive value MACE 99.4%, sensitivity 97.6%, %discharge 53.4) and LOD HSTnT strategy (negative predictive value MACE 99.8%, sensitivity 99.5%, %discharge 36.9) achieved pre-specified negative predictive value of >99% for MACE at six weeks. For type 1 myocardial infarction alone the negative predictive values at six weeks and one year were identical, for both HEART ≤3 and LOD HSTnT at 99.8% and 99.5% respectively. CONCLUSION: HEART ≤3 or LOD HSTnT strategy rules out short and medium term myocardial infarction with ≥99.5% certainty, and short-term MACE with >99% certainty, allowing for early discharge of 53.4% and 36.9% respectively of suspected acute coronary syndrome. Adoption of either strategy has the potential to greatly reduce Emergency Room pressures and minimise follow-up investigations. Very early presenters (<3 h), due to limited numbers, are excluded from these conclusions.

Referral patterns after a seizure admission in an English region: an opportunity for effective intervention? An observational study of routine hospital data.

OBJECTIVES: To identify emergency seizure admissions to hospital and their subsequent access to specialist outpatient services. DESIGN: Algorithmic analysis of anonymised routine hospital data over 7 years using specialist follow-up by 3 months as the target outcome. POPULATION: All adults resident in Merseyside and Cheshire, England. MAIN OUTCOMES: Whether, and when, access to the specialist advice that might prevent further admissions was offered. RESULTS: 1.4% of all emergency medical admissions are as a result of seizure. In the following 12 months 35% were readmitted and experienced a mean of 2.3 emergency department visits. Only 27% (48% of those already known to specialists and 13% of those not known) were offered appointments. Subsequent attendance at a specialist clinic is more likely if already known to a clinic, if aged <35 years, if female, or required a longer spell in hospital. Extrapolation from other work suggests 100,000 bed days per annum could be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Most seizure admissions are not being referred for the help that could prevent future admissions. The majority of those that are referred are not seen within an appropriate time frame. Our service structures are not providing an optimum service for people with epilepsy.

Long-term effect of insulin treatment in cystic fibrosis-related diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Although insulin treatment confers short-term benefit in cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD), few studies have compared its long-term effect on the clinical outcome. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we aimed to investigate the long-term impact of insulin treatment on pulmonary function, nutritional status and hospital admissions in patients with CFRD. METHODS: We reviewed pulmonary function, body mass index (BMI) and hospital admissions 5 years before and 3 years after insulin therapy in 42 adult CFRD patients. RESULTS: Prior to treatment, over a period of 5 years, the annual rate of change in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) was -3.2%, forced vital capacity (FVC) -2.5%, and BMI -0.07%. At treatment of CFRD (baseline), the mean FEV(1) was 51.6% predicted (range 24-96), FVC 66.4% (range 29-103) and BMI 19.5 (range 15.3-29.5). At 3 months following insulin treatment, there was a significant improvement in all parameters, which was maintained at 1 year for FEV(1) (55.1%; p < 0.002), 2 years for FVC (72.1%; p < 0.01) and at 3 years for BMI (20.4%; p < 0.002). After 3 months, FEV(1) declined at a rate similar to that before treatment (-3.2 vs. -3.1% per year; p = 0.77), such that the mean FEV(1) after treatment returned to pretreatment baseline values at 34 months. There was no difference in the number of hospital admissions with insulin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin enhances the nutritional state and temporarily improves pulmonary function in CFRD patients, on average delaying the decline in FEV(1) by 34 months.