Health inequalities at the intersection of multiple social determinants among under five children residing Nairobi urban slums: An application of multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA).

In this analysis we examine through an intersectionality lens how key social determinants of health (SDOH) are associated with health conditions among under-five children (<5y) residing in Nairobi slums, Kenya. We used cross-sectional data collected from Nairobi slums between June and November 2012 to explore how multiple interactions of SDoH shape health inequalities in slums. We applied multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) approach. We constructed intersectional strata for each health condition from combinations of significant SDoH obtained using univariate analyses. We then estimated the intersectional effects of health condition in a series of MAIHDA logistic regression models distinguishing between additive and interaction effects. We quantified discriminatory accuracy (DA) of the intersectional strata by means of the variance partitioning coefficient (VPC) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The total participants were 2,199 <5y, with 120 records (5.5%) dropped because health conditions were recorded as "not applicable". The main outcome variables were three health conditions: 1) whether a child had diarrhea or not, 2) whether a child had fever or not, and 3) whether a child had cough or not in the previous two weeks. We found non-significant intersectional effects for each health condition. The head of household ethnic group was significantly associated with each health condition. We found good DA for diarrhea (VPC = 9.0%, AUC-ROC = 76.6%) an indication of large intersectional effects. However, fever (VPC = 1.9%, AUC-ROC = 66.3%) and cough (VPC = 0.5%, AUC-ROC = 61.8%) had weak DA indicating existence of small intersectional effects. Our study shows pathways for SDoH that affect diarrhea, cough, and fever for <5y living in slums are multiplicative and shared. The findings show that <5y from Luo and Luhya ethnic groups, recent migrants (less than 2 years), and households experiencing CHE are more likely to face worse health outcomes. We recommend relevant stakeholders to develop strategies aimed at identifying these groups for targeted proportionate universalism based on the level of their need.

Impacts of EU Tobacco Products Directive regulations on use of e-cigarettes in adolescents in Great Britain: a natural experiment evaluation.

Background: E-cigarettes are a popular smoking-cessation tool. Although less harmful than tobacco, use of e-cigarettes by non-smokers should be prevented. There is concern about the use of e-cigarettes by young people and that e-cigarettes may renormalise smoking. In May 2016, Tobacco Products Directive regulations aimed to reduce e-cigarettes' appeal to young people. Aims: To examine the effects of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations on young people's use of e-cigarettes, and the role of e-cigarettes in renormalising smoking. Design: A mixed-method natural experimental evaluation combining secondary analyses of survey data, with process evaluation, including interviews with young people, policy stakeholders, retailers and trading standards observers, and observations of retail settings. Settings: Wales, Scotland and England. Participants: Survey participants were aged 13-15 years, living in England, Scotland or Wales and participated in routinely conducted surveys from 1998 to 2019. Process evaluation participants included 14- to 15-year-olds in England, Scotland and Wales, policy stakeholders, trading standards offices and retailers. Intervention: Regulation of e-cigarettes, including bans on cross-border advertising, health warnings and restrictions on product strength. Comparison group: Interrupted time series design, with baseline trends as the comparator. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was ever e-cigarette use. Secondary outcomes included regular use, ever and regular smoking, smoking attitudes, alcohol and cannabis use. Data capture and analysis: Our primary statistical analysis used data from Wales, including 91,687 young people from the 2013-19 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children and School Health Research Network surveys. In Scotland, we used the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey and in England we used the Smoking Drinking and Drug Use surveys. The process evaluation included interviews with 73 young people in 2017 and 148 young people in 2018, 12 policy stakeholders, 13 trading standards officers and 27 retailers. We observed 30 retail premises before and after implementation. Data were integrated using the Medical Research Council's process evaluation framework. Results: Ever smoking continued to decline alongside the emergence of e-cigarettes, with a slight slowing in decline for regular use. Tobacco Products Directive regulations were described by stakeholders as well implemented, and observations indicated good compliance. Young people described e-cigarettes as a fad and indicated limited interaction with the components of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations. In primary statistical analyses in Wales [i.e. short (to 2017) and long term (to 2019)], growth in ever use of e-cigarettes prior to Tobacco Products Directive regulations did not continue after implementation. Change in trend was significant in long-term analysis, although of similar magnitude at both time points (odds ratio 0.96). Data from England and Scotland exhibited a similar pattern. Smoking followed the opposite pattern, declining prior to the Tobacco Products Directive regulations, but plateauing as growth in e-cigarette use stalled. Limitations: Alternative causal explanations for changes cannot be ruled out because of the observational design. Conclusions: Young people's ever and regular use of e-cigarettes appears to have peaked around the time of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations and may be declining. Although caution is needed in causal attributions, findings are consistent with an effect of regulations. Our analysis provides little evidence that e-cigarettes renormalise smoking. More recent data indicate that declines in smoking are plateauing. Future work: International comparative work to understand differences in use of e-cigarettes, and tobacco, within varying regulatory frameworks is a priority. Study registration: This study is registered as ResearchRegistry4336. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Much has been achieved in preventing young people smoking; however, e-cigarettes have emerged as a new issue. E-cigarettes can help smokers stop, but might also appeal to young people or make smoking look 'normal'. Until recently, In the United Kingdom, there were not many rules for e-cigarettes. In 2016, new rules came in as part of the European Union Tobacco Products Directive regulations. The Tobacco Products Directive regulations limited advertising and included rules about how e-cigarettes should be labelled. In our study, we wanted to know if (1) e-cigarettes make young people think smoking is 'normal' and (2) people's use of e-cigarettes changed after new rules. We included young people who took part in surveys in England, Scotland and Wales between 1998 and 2019. Overall, about 360,000 young people did one of the surveys and about 90,000 were included in our main analysis. We spoke with young people in 2017 and 2018. In addition, in 2018, we spoke with people involved in tobacco policy, trading standards officers and people who sold e-cigarettes. Young people held negative attitudes about smoking and said that friends disagreed with smoking. Young people approved of occasional social e-cigarette use, but not regular use. Stakeholders described a range of views on how e-cigarettes should be regulated. Retailers and trading standards officers said that some retailers did not get much information about Tobacco Products Directive regulations, but new rules were implemented well. The percentage of young people saying that they had tried e-cigarettes was growing, but the number had stopped growing after the new rules. Regular use remained low throughout. Our findings suggest that e-cigarettes are not making smoking look normal again and new rules may have helped stop growth in use of e-cigarettes by young people.

The effects of social determinants on children's health outcomes in Bangladesh slums through an intersectionality lens: An application of multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA).

Empirical evidence suggests that the health outcomes of children living in slums are poorer than those living in non-slums and other urban areas. Improving health especially among children under five years old (U5y) living in slums, requires a better understanding of the social determinants of health (SDoH) that drive their health outcomes. Therefore, we aim to investigate how SDoH collectively affects health outcomes of U5y living in Bangladesh slums through an intersectionality lens. We used data from the most recent national Urban Health Survey (UHS) 2013 covering urban populations in Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet, and Rangpur divisions. We applied multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to estimate the Discriminatory Accuracy (DA) of the intersectional effects estimates using Variance Partition Coefficient (VPC) and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). We also assessed the Proportional Change in Variance (PCV) to calculate intersectional effects. We considered three health outcomes: cough, fever, and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in U5y.We found a low DA for cough (VPC = 0.77%, AUC-ROC = 61.90%), fever (VPC = 0.87%, AUC-ROC = 61.89%) and ARI (VPC = 1.32%, AUC-ROC = 66.36%) of intersectional strata suggesting that SDoH considered do not collectively differentiate U5y with a health outcome from those with and without a health outcome. The PCV for cough (85.90%), fever (78.42%) and ARI (69.77%) indicates the existence of moderate intersectional effects. We also found that SDoH factors such as slum location, mother's employment, age of household head, and household's garbage disposal system are associated with U5y health outcomes. The variables used in this analysis have low ability to distinguish between those with and without health outcomes. However, the existence of moderate intersectional effect estimates indicates that U5y in some social groups have worse health outcomes compared to others. Therefore, policymakers need to consider different social groups when designing intervention policies aimed to improve U5y health outcomes in Bangladesh slums.

Adjustment for survey non-participation using record linkage and multiple imputation: A validity assessment exercise using the Health 2000 survey.

AIMS: It is becoming increasingly possible to obtain additional information about health survey participants, though not usually non-participants, via record linkage. We aimed to assess the validity of an assumption underpinning a method developed to mitigate non-participation bias. We use a survey in Finland where it is possible to link both participants and non-participants to administrative registers. Survey-derived alcohol consumption is used as the exemplar outcome. METHODS: Data on participants (85.5%) and true non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey (invited survey sample N=7167 aged 30-79 years) and a contemporaneous register-based population sample (N=496,079) were individually linked to alcohol-related hospitalisation and death records. Applying the methodology to create synthetic observations on non-participants, we created 'inferred samples' (participants and inferred non-participants). Relative differences (RDs) between the inferred sample and the invited survey sample were estimated overall and by education. Five per cent limits were used to define acceptable RDs. RESULTS: Average weekly consumption estimates for men were 129 g and 131 g of alcohol in inferred and invited survey samples, respectively (RD -1.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.2 to -0.04%) and 35 g for women in both samples (RD -1.1%; 95% CI -2.4 to -0.8%). Estimates for men with secondary levels of education had the greatest RD (-2.4%; 95% CI -3.7 to -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The sufficiently small RDs between inferred and invited survey samples support the assumption validity and use of our methodology for adjusting for non-participation. However, the presence of some significant differences means caution is required.

Effects of social determinants on children's health in informal settlements in Bangladesh and Kenya through an intersectionality lens: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have shown that residents of urban informal settlements/slums are usually excluded and marginalised from formal social systems and structures of power leading to disproportionally worse health outcomes compared to other urban dwellers. To promote health equity for slum dwellers, requires an understanding of how their lived realities shape inequities especially for young children 0-4 years old (ie, under-fives) who tend to have a higher mortality compared with non-slum children. In these proposed studies, we aim to examine how key Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) factors at child and household levels combine to affect under-five health conditions, who live in slums in Bangladesh and Kenya through an intersectionality lens. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The protocol describes how we will analyse data from the Nairobi Cross-sectional Slum Survey (NCSS 2012) for Kenya and the Urban Health Survey (UHS 2013) for Bangladesh to explore how SDoH influence under-five health outcomes in slums within an intersectionality framework. The NCSS 2012 and UHS 2013 samples will consist of 2199 and 3173 under-fives, respectively. We will apply Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy approach. Some of SDoH characteristics to be considered will include those of children, head of household, mothers and social structure characteristics of household. The primary outcomes will be whether a child had diarrhoea, cough, fever and acute respiratory infection (ARI) 2 weeks preceding surveys. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The results will be disseminated in international peer-reviewed journals and presented in events organised by the Accountability and Responsiveness in Informal Settlements for Equity consortium and international conferences. Ethical approval was not required for these studies. Access to the NCSS 2012 has been given by Africa Population and Health Center and UHS 2013 is freely available.

Implications of COVID-19 for safeguarding in international development research: learning, action and reflection from a research hub.

COVID-19 brings uncertainties and new precarities for communities and researchers, altering and amplifying relational vulnerabilities (vulnerabilities which emerge from relationships of unequal power and place those less powerful at risk of abuse and violence). Research approaches have changed too, with increasing use of remote data collection methods. These multiple changes necessitate new or adapted safeguarding responses. This practice piece shares practical learnings and resources on safeguarding from the Accountability for Informal Urban Equity hub, which uses participatory action research, aiming to catalyse change in approaches to enhancing accountability and improving the health and well-being of marginalised people living and working in informal urban spaces in Bangladesh, India, Kenya and Sierra Leone. We outline three new challenges that emerged in the context of the pandemic (1): exacerbated relational vulnerabilities and dilemmas for researchers in responding to increased reports of different forms of violence coupled with support services that were limited prior to the pandemic becoming barely functional or non-existent in some research sites, (2) the increased use of virtual and remote research methods, with implications for safeguarding and (3) new stress, anxiety and vulnerabilities experienced by researchers. We then outline our learning and recommended action points for addressing emerging challenges, linking practice to the mnemonic 'the four Rs: recognise, respond, report, refer'. COVID-19 has intensified safeguarding risks. We stress the importance of communities, researchers and co-researchers engaging in dialogue and ongoing discussions of power and positionality, which are important to foster co-learning and co-production of safeguarding processes.

Changes in childhood experimentation with, and exposure to, tobacco and e-cigarettes and perceived smoking norms: a repeated cross-sectional study of 10-11 year olds' in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Today's primary school children have grown up in a climate of strong smoking restrictions, decreasing tobacco use, and the emergence of e-cigarettes. Children's exposure to tobacco declined substantially in years following the introduction of smoke-free legislation, with smoking uptake and perceived smoking norms declining. There is debate regarding whether emergence of e-cigarettes may interrupt trends in children's smoking perceptions, or offer a means for adults to limit children's exposure to tobacco. This study examines change in children's tobacco and e-cigarettes experimentation (ever use), exposure to secondhand smoking and vaping, and perceived smoking norms. METHODS: Data from four, repeat cross-sectional surveys of Year 6 primary school pupils (age 10-11 years) in Wales in 2007, 2008, 2014 and 2019 (n = 6741) were combined. E-cigarette use and perceptions were included in 2014 and 2019 surveys. Analyses used binary logistic regression analyses, adjusted for school-level clustering. RESULTS: Child tobacco experimentation and most indicators of exposure to tobacco smoke indicated a graded decreasing trend over time from 2007 to 2019. Exposure to e-cigarettes increased from 2014 to 2019, as did pupil awareness of e-cigarettes (OR = 2.56, 95%CI = 2.12-3.10), and parental use (OR = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.00-1.57). A decrease in child e-cigarette experimentation was not significant (OR = 0.80, 95%CI = 0.57-1.13). Children's normative perceptions for smoking by adults and children indicated a graded decrease over time (OR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.54-0.80; OR = 0.69, 95%CI = 0.55-0.86; respectively from 2014 to 2019). However, fewer reported disapproval of people smoking around them in 2019 relative to 2014 (OR = 0.68, 95%CI = 0.53-0.88). Higher exposure to tobacco cigarettes and e-cigarettes in public places, cars and households were associated with favourable normative perceptions for tobacco smoking; however in models adjusted for exposure to both associations of e-cigarette exposure were attenuated. CONCLUSION: Children's experimentation with and exposure to tobacco, and their perceptions of smoking as a normative behaviour, have continued to decline alongside growth in exposure to e-cigarettes. Although a large majority of pupils reported they minded people smoking around them, there was some evidence of diminishing disapproval of secondhand smoke since 2007. Further research is needed to understand whether use of e-cigarettes in cars and homes is displacing prior smoking or being introduced into environments where smoking had been eliminated.

Standard multiple imputation of survey data didn't perform better than simple substitution in enhancing an administrative dataset: the example of self-rated health in England.

BACKGROUND: Health surveys provide a rich array of information but on relatively small numbers of individuals and evidence suggests that they are becoming less representative as response levels fall. Routinely collected administrative data offer more extensive population coverage but typically comprise fewer health topics. We explore whether data combination and multiple imputation of health variables from survey data is a simple and robust way of generating these variables in the general population. METHODS: We use the UK Integrated Household Survey and the English 2011 population census both of which included self-rated general health. Setting aside the census self-rated health data we multiply imputed self-rated health responses for the census using the survey data and compared these with the actual census results in 576 unique groups defined by age, sex, housing tenure and geographic region. RESULTS: Compared with original census data across the groups, multiply imputed proportions of bad or very bad self-rated health were not a markedly better fit than those simply derived from the survey proportions. CONCLUSION: While multiple imputation may have the potential to augment population data with information from surveys, further testing and refinement is required.

Approaches to triangulation of alcohol data in Scotland: Commentary on Rehm et al.

Rehm et al. highlight the ongoing difficulties in accurately estimating alcohol consumption using surveys. Population surveys, in particular, suffer from non-response and sampling bias, which affects their representativeness, but they are one of the few ways of estimating differences in consumption across population subgroups. In this article, we highlight different approaches that have been taken in Scotland to try to overcome these problems, from the pragmatic to the sophisticated.

Young people's use of e-cigarettes in Wales, England and Scotland before and after introduction of EU Tobacco Products Directive regulations: a mixed-method natural experimental evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Young people's experimentation with e-cigarettes has increased in recent years, although regular use remains limited. EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) regulations introduced packet warnings, advertising restrictions, and regulated nicotine strength from 2016, in part due to concerns regarding use by young people. This paper examines e-cigarette use trajectories before and after TPD. METHODS: E-cigarette use data were obtained from School Health Research Network/Health Behaviour in School-aged Children surveys in Wales and Smoking Drinking and Drug Use surveys in England. Data from Wales were analysed using segmented logistic regression, with before and after regression analyses of English data. Semi-structured group interviews included young people aged 14-16 years in Wales, England and Scotland in 2017 and 2018. RESULTS: In Wales, ever use of e-cigarettes increased over time, but under a range of assumptions, growth did not appear to continue post-TPD. A small and non-significant change in trend was observed post-implementation (OR=0.96; 95%CI=0.91 to 1.01), which increased in size and significance after adjusting for ever smoking (OR=0.93; 95%CI=0.88 to 0.98). There was little increase in regular e-cigarette use from 2015 to 2017 in Wales. However, ever and regular use increased from 2014 to 2016 in England. Young people in all nations described limited interactions with components of TPD, while describing e-cigarette use as a 'fad', which had begun to run its course. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides preliminary evidence that young people's e-cigarette experimentation may be plateauing in UK nations. The extent to which this arises from regulatory changes, or due to a fad having begun to lose its appeal among young people in the UK countries, remains unclear. These trends contrast to those observed in North America, where newer products whose EU market entry and marketing have been impacted by TPD, have gained traction among young people. Long-term monitoring of e-cigarette use trends and perceptions among young people remain vital.

Youth vaping and smoking and parental vaping: a panel survey.

BACKGROUND: Concerns remain about potential negative impacts of e-cigarettes including possibilities that: youth e-cigarette use (vaping) increases risk of youth smoking; and vaping by parents may have impacts on their children's vaping and smoking behaviour. METHODS: With panel data from 3291 youth aged 10-15 years from the 7th wave of the UK Understanding Society Survey (2015-2017), we estimated effects of youth vaping on youth smoking (ever, current and past year initiation), and of parental vaping on youth smoking and vaping, and examined whether the latter differed by parental smoking status. Propensity weighting was used to adjust for measured confounders and estimate average effects of vaping for all youth, and among youth who vaped. E-values were calculated to assess the strength of unmeasured confounding influences needed to negate our estimates. RESULTS: Associations between youth vaping and youth smoking were attenuated considerably by adjustment for measured confounders. Estimated average effects of youth vaping on youth smoking were stronger for all youth (e.g. OR for smoking initiation: 32.5; 95% CI: 9.8-107.1) than among youth who vaped (OR: 4.4; 0.6-30.9). Relatively strong unmeasured confounding would be needed to explain these effects. Associations between parental vaping and youth vaping were explained by measured confounders. Estimates indicated effects of parental vaping on youth smoking, especially for youth with ex-smoking parents (e.g. OR for smoking initiation: 11.3; 2.7-46.4) rather than youth with currently smoking parents (OR: 1.0; 0.2-6.4), but these could be explained by relatively weak unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: While measured confounding accounted for much of the associations between youth vaping and youth smoking, indicating support for underlying propensities, our estimates suggested residual effects that could only be explained away by considerable unmeasured confounding or by smoking leading to vaping. Estimated effects of youth vaping on youth smoking were stronger among the general youth population than among the small group of youth who actually vaped. Associations of parental vaping with youth smoking and vaping were either explained by measured confounding or could be relatively easily explained by unmeasured confounding.

Alcohol-related Outcomes and All-cause Mortality in the Health 2000 Survey by Participation Status and Compared with the Finnish Population.

BACKGROUND: In the context of declining levels of participation, understanding differences between participants and non-participants in health surveys is increasingly important for reliable measurement of health-related behaviors and their social differentials. This study compared participants and non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey, and participants and a representative sample of the target population, in terms of alcohol-related harms (hospitalizations and deaths) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We individually linked 6,127 survey participants and 1,040 non-participants, aged 30-79, and a register-based population sample (n = 496,079) to 12 years of subsequent administrative hospital discharge and mortality data. We estimated age-standardized rates and rate ratios for each outcome for non-participants and the population sample relative to participants with and without sampling weights by sex and educational attainment. RESULTS: Harms and mortality were higher in non-participants, relative to participants for both men (rate ratios = 1.5 [95% confidence interval = 1.2, 1.9] for harms; 1.6 [1.3, 2.0] for mortality) and women (2.7 [1.6, 4.4] harms; 1.7 [1.4, 2.0] mortality). Non-participation bias in harms estimates in women increased with education and in all-cause mortality overall. Age-adjusted comparisons between the population sample and sampling weighted participants were inconclusive for differences by sex; however, there were some large differences by educational attainment level. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of harms and mortality in non-participants exceed those in participants. Weighted participants' rates reflected those in the population well by age and sex, but insufficiently by educational attainment. Despite relatively high participation levels (85%), social differentiating factors and levels of harm and mortality were underestimated in the participants.

How to prevent and address safeguarding concerns in global health research programmes: practice, process and positionality in marginalised spaces.

Safeguarding is rapidly rising up the international development agenda, yet literature on safeguarding in related research is limited. This paper shares processes and practice relating to safeguarding within an international research consortium (the ARISE hub, known as ARISE). ARISE aims to enhance accountability and improve the health and well-being of marginalised people living and working in informal urban spaces in low-income and middle-income countries (Bangladesh, India, Kenya and Sierra Leone). Our manuscript is divided into three key sections. We start by discussing the importance of safeguarding in global health research and consider how thinking about vulnerability as a relational concept (shaped by unequal power relations and structural violence) can help locate fluid and context specific safeguarding risks within broader social systems. We then discuss the different steps undertaken in ARISE to develop a shared approach to safeguarding: sharing institutional guidelines and practice; facilitating a participatory process to agree a working definition of safeguarding and joint understandings of vulnerabilities, risks and mitigation strategies and share experiences; developing action plans for safeguarding. This is followed by reflection on our key learnings including how safeguarding, ethics and health and safety concerns overlap; the challenges of referral and support for safeguarding concerns within frequently underserved informal urban spaces; and the importance of reflective practice and critical thinking about power, judgement and positionality and the ownership of the global narrative surrounding safeguarding. We finish by situating our learning within debates on decolonising science and argue for the importance of an iterative, ongoing learning journey that is critical, reflective and inclusive of vulnerable people.

Socioeconomic patterning of vaping by smoking status among UK adults and youth.

BACKGROUND: Smoking contributes significantly to socioeconomic health inequalities. Vaping has captured much interest as a less harmful alternative to smoking, but may be harmful relative to non-smoking. Examining inequalities in vaping by smoking status, may offer insights into potential impacts of vaping on socioeconomic inequalities in health. METHODS: Data were from 3291 youth (aged 10-15) and 35,367 adults (aged 16+) from wave 7 (2015-17) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study. In order to adjust for biases that could be introduced by stratifying on smoking status, marginal structural models were used to estimate controlled direct effects of an index of socioeconomic disadvantage (incorporating household education, occupation and income) on vaping by smoking status (among adults and youth), adjusting for relevant confounders and for selection into smoking states. We also estimated controlled direct effects of socioeconomic disadvantage on being an ex-smoker by vaping status (among adult ever-smokers; n = 18,128). RESULTS: Socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with vaping among never smoking youth (OR for a unit increase in the socioeconomic index: 1.17; 95%: 1.03-1.34), and among ex-smoking adults (OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.26), with little to no association among never smoking (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91-1.07) and current smoking (OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.93-1.07) adults. Socioeconomic disadvantage was also associated with reduced odds of being an ex-smoker among adult ever-smokers, but this association was moderately weaker among those who vaped (OR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82-0.95) than those who did not (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.80-0.84; p-value for difference = 0.081). CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in vaping among never smoking youth and adult ex-smokers, suggest potential to widen health inequalities, while weaker inequalities in smoking cessation among adult vapers indicate e-cigarettes could help narrow inequalities. Further research is needed to understand the balance of these opposing potential impacts, and how any benefits can be maximised whilst protecting the vulnerable.

Associations of Socioeconomic Status, Parental Smoking and Parental E-Cigarette Use with 10-11-Year-Old Children's Perceptions of Tobacco Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Cross Sectional Analysis of the CHETS Wales 3 Survey.

BACKGROUND: This study examines primary schoolchildren's perceptions of e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes, and associations with parental smoking, vaping and socioeconomic status. METHODS: Survey of 2218 10-11-year-old children in 73 schools in Wales. RESULTS: Overall, 36% reported that a parent figure smoked compared to 21% for vaping, with parental smoking lower in affluent families (OR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.76). Overall, 1% had tried a cigarette, while 5% had tried an e-cigarette. Most said they would not smoke or vape in 2 years' time; susceptibility to vaping (20%) was higher than smoking (12%). Exposure to and perceptions of tobacco cigarettes were more positive for children of smokers. Having a parent who vaped was associated with exposure to and positive perceptions of e-cigarettes, but not smoking. Most children perceived e-cigarettes as used by adults to stop smoking (64%). Susceptibility to smoking (OR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.79) and vaping (OR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99) were lower among children who perceived e-cigarettes as cessation aids. CONCLUSIONS: Parental smoking continues to be concentrated in poorer families. This study provides no evidence that parental vaping in the absence of smoking is associated with more positive perceptions of tobacco cigarettes. Communicating to children the role of e-cigarettes as cessation devices for smokers may help to limit their appeal to young people.

Have e-cigarettes renormalised or displaced youth smoking? Results of a segmented regression analysis of repeated cross sectional survey data in England, Scotland and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether during a period of limited e-cigarette regulation and rapid growth in their use, smoking began to become renormalised among young people. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series analysis of repeated cross-sectional time-series data. SETTING: Great Britain PARTICIPANTS: 248 324 young people aged approximately 13 and 15 years, from three national surveys during the years 1998-2015. INTERVENTION: Unregulated growth of e-cigarette use (following the year 2010, until 2015). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were prevalence of self-reported ever smoking and regular smoking. Secondary outcomes were attitudes towards smoking. Tertiary outcomes were ever use of cannabis and alcohol. RESULTS: In final models, no significant change was detected in the pre-existing trend for ever smoking (OR 1.01, CI 0.99 to 1.03). There was a marginally significant slowing in the rate of decline for regular smoking (OR 1.04, CI 1.00 to 1.08), accompanied by a larger slowing in the rate of decline of cannabis use (OR 1.21, CI 1.18 to 1.25) and alcohol use (OR 1.17, CI 1.14 to 1.19). In all models and subgroup analyses for smoking attitudes, an increased rate of decline was observed after 2010 (OR 0.88, CI 0.86 to 0.90). Models were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: There was a marginal slowing in the decline in regular smoking during the period following 2010, when e-cigarettes were emerging but relatively unregulated. However, these patterns were not unique to tobacco use and the decline in the acceptability of smoking behaviour among youth accelerated during this time. These analyses provide little evidence that renormalisation of youth smoking was occurring during a period of rapid growth and limited regulation of e-cigarettes from 2011 to 2015. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Research registry number: researchregistry4336.

Correcting for non-participation bias in health surveys using record-linkage, synthetic observations and pattern mixture modelling.

Surveys are key means of obtaining policy-relevant information not available from routine sources. Bias arising from non-participation is typically handled by applying weights derived from limited socio-demographic characteristics. This approach neither captures nor adjusts for differences in health and related behaviours between participants and non-participants within categories. We addressed non-participation bias in alcohol consumption estimates using novel methodology applied to 2003 Scottish Health Survey responses record-linked to prospective administrative data. Differences were identified in socio-demographic characteristics, alcohol-related harm (hospitalisation or mortality) and all-cause mortality between survey participants and, from unlinked administrative sources, the contemporaneous general population of Scotland. These were used to infer the number of non-participants within each subgroup defined by socio-demographics and health outcomes. Synthetic observations for non-participants were then generated, missing only alcohol consumption. Weekly alcohol consumption values among synthetic non-participants were multiply imputed under missing at random and missing not at random assumptions. Relative to estimates adjusted using previously derived weights, the obtained mean weekly alcohol intake estimates were up to 59% higher among men and 16% higher among women, depending on the assumptions imposed. This work demonstrates the universal value of multiple imputation-based methodological advancement incorporating administrative health data over routine weighting procedures.

Validation of non-participation bias methodology based on record-linked Finnish register-based health survey data: a protocol paper.

INTRODUCTION: Decreasing participation levels in health surveys pose a threat to the validity of estimates intended to be representative of their target population. If participants and non-participants differ systematically, the results may be biased. The application of traditional non-response adjustment methods, such as weighting, can fail to correct for such biases, as estimates are typically based on the sociodemographic information available. Therefore, a dedicated methodology to infer on non-participants offers advancement by employing survey data linked to administrative health records, with reference to data on the general population. We aim to validate such a methodology in a register-based setting, where individual-level data on participants and non-participants are available, taking alcohol consumption estimation as the exemplar focus. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We made use of the selected sample of the Health 2000 survey conducted in Finland and a separate register-based sample of the contemporaneous population, with follow-up until 2012. Finland has nationally representative administrative and health registers available for individual-level record linkage to the Health 2000 survey participants and invited non-participants, and the population sample. By comparing the population sample and the participants, synthetic observations representing the non-participants may be generated, as per the developed methodology. We can compare the distribution of the synthetic non-participants with the true distribution from the register data. Multiple imputation was then used to estimate alcohol consumption based on both the actual and synthetic data for non-participants, and the estimates can be compared to evaluate the methodology's performance. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval and access to the Health 2000 survey data and data from administrative and health registers have been given by the Health 2000 Scientific Advisory Board, Statistics Finland and the National Institute for Health and Welfare. The outputs will include two publications in public health and statistical methodology journals and conference presentations.

Assessing progress in protecting non-smokers from secondhand smoke.

OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in population exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) and consider two exposure metrics as appropriate targets for tobacco control policy-makers. DESIGN: Comparison of adult non-smokers' salivary cotinine data available from 11 Scottish Health Surveys between 1998 and 2016. METHODS: The proportions of non-smoking adults who had measurable levels of cotinine in their saliva were calculated for the 11 time points. The geometric mean (GM) concentrations of cotinine levels were calculated using Tobit regression. Changes in both parameters were assessed for the whole period and also for the years since implementation of smoke-free legislation in Scotland in 2006. RESULTS: Salivary cotinine expressed as a GM fell from 0.464 ng/mL (95% CI 0.444 to 0.486 ng/mL) in 1998 to 0.013 ng/mL (95% CI 0.009 to 0.020 ng/mL) in 2016: a reduction of 97.2%. The percentage of non-smoking adults who had no measurable cotinine in their saliva increased by nearly sixfold between 1998 (12.5%, 95% CI 11.5% to 13.6%) and 2016 (81.6%, 95% CI 78.6% to 84.6%). Reductions in population exposure to SHS have continued even after smoke-free legislation in 2006. CONCLUSIONS: Scotland has witnessed a dramatic reduction in SHS exposure in the past two decades, but there are still nearly one in five non-smoking adults who have measurable exposure to SHS on any given day. Tobacco control strategies globally should consider the use of both the proportion of non-smoking adults with undetectable salivary cotinine and the GM as targets to encourage policies that achieve a smoke-free future.

How Healthy Are Survey Respondents Compared with the General Population?: Using Survey-linked Death Records to Compare Mortality Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: National surveys are used to capture US health trends and set clinical guidelines, yet the sampling frame often includes those in noninstitutional households, potentially missing those most vulnerable for poor health. Declining response rates in national surveys also represent a challenge, and existing inputs to survey weights have limitations. We compared mortality rates between those who respond to surveys and the general population over time. METHODS: Survey respondents from 20 waves of the National Health Interview Survey from 1990 to 2009 who have been linked to death records through 31 December 2011 were included. For each cohort in the survey, we estimated their mortality rates along with that cohort's mortality rate in the census population using vital statistics records, and differences were examined using Poisson models. RESULTS: In all years, survey respondents had lower mortality rates compared with the general population when data were both weighted and unweighted. Among men, survey respondents in the weighted sample had 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.853, 0.868) times the mortality rate of the general population (among women, RR = 0.887; 95% confidence interval, 0.879, 0.895). Differences in mortality are evident along all points of the life course. Differences have remained relatively stable over time. CONCLUSION: Survey respondents have lower death rates than the general US population, suggesting that they are a systematically healthier source population. Incorporating nonhousehold samples and revised weighting strategies to account for sample frame exclusion and nonresponse may allow for more rigorous estimation of the US population's health.