Surgical Treatment of Single-Level Lumbar Stenosis Is Associated with Lower 2-Year Mortality and Total Cost Compared with Nonsurgical Treatment: A Risk-Adjusted, Paired Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Spine surgery has demonstrated cost-effectiveness in reducing pain and restoring function, but the impact of spine surgery relative to nonsurgical care on longer-term outcomes has been less well described. Our objective was to compare single-level surgical treatment for lumbar stenosis, with or without spondylolisthesis, and nonsurgical treatment with respect to patient mortality, resource utilization, and health-care payments over the first 2 years following initial treatment. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Medicare National Database Fee for Service Files from 2011 to 2017 was performed. A 2-year prediction of mortality risk (risk stratification index, RSI) was used as a measure of patient baseline health. Patients (88%) were matched by RSI and demographics. Mortality, spine-related health-care utilization, and 2-year total Medicare payments for patients undergoing surgical treatment were compared with matched patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment. RESULTS: We identified 61,534 patients with stenosis alone and 83,813 with stenosis and spondylolisthesis. Surgical treatment was associated with 28% lower 2-year mortality compared with matched patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment. Total Medicare payments were significantly lower for patients with stenosis alone undergoing laminectomy alone and for patients with stenosis and spondylolisthesis undergoing laminectomy with or without fusion compared with patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment. There was no significant difference in mortality when fusion or laminectomy was compared with combined fusion and laminectomy. However, laminectomy alone was associated with significantly lower 2-year payments when treating stenosis with or without spondylolisthesis. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical treatment for stenosis with or without spondylolisthesis within the Medicare population was associated with significantly lower mortality and total medical payments at 2 years compared with nonsurgical treatment, although residual confounding could have contributed to these findings. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Covid-19 and excess mortality in medicare beneficiaries.

We estimated excess mortality in Medicare recipients in the United States with probable and confirmed Covid-19 infections in the general community and amongst residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities. We considered 28,389,098 Medicare and dual-eligible recipients from one year before February 29, 2020 through September 30, 2020, with mortality followed through November 30th, 2020. Probable and confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses, presumably mostly symptomatic, were determined from ICD-10 codes. We developed a Risk Stratification Index (RSI) mortality model which was applied prospectively to establish baseline mortality risk. Excess deaths attributable to Covid-19 were estimated by comparing actual-to-expected deaths based on historical (2017-2019) comparisons and in closely matched concurrent (2020) cohorts with and without Covid-19. Overall, 677,100 (2.4%) beneficiaries had confirmed Covid-19 and 2,917,604 (10.3%) had probable Covid-19. A total of 472,329 confirmed cases were community living and 204,771 were in LTC. Mortality following a probable or confirmed diagnosis in the community increased from an expected incidence of about 4.0% to actual incidence of 7.5%. In long-term care facilities, the corresponding increase was from 20.3% to 24.6%. The absolute increase was therefore similar at 3-4% in the community and in LTC residents. The percentage increase was far greater in the community (89.5%) than among patients in chronic care facilities (21.1%) who had higher baseline risk of mortality. The LTC population without probable or confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses experienced 38,932 excess deaths (34.8%) compared to historical estimates. Limitations in access to Covid-19 testing and disease under-reporting in LTC patients probably were important factors, although social isolation and disruption in usual care presumably also contributed. Remarkably, there were 31,360 (5.4%) fewer deaths than expected in community dwellers without probable or confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses. Disruptions to the healthcare system and avoided medical care were thus apparently offset by other factors, representing overall benefit. The Covid-19 pandemic had marked effects on mortality, but the effects were highly context-dependent.

The antidepressant treatment response index and treatment outcomes in a placebo-controlled trial of fluoxetine.

Recent research aims at developing a biomarker to predict antidepressant treatment outcomes in major depressive disorder. The Antidepressant Treatment Response (ATR) index has been correlated with response to antidepressant medication (, ) but has not been assessed in a placebo-controlled trial. EEGs recorded at pretreatment baseline and after 1 week of randomized treatment were used to calculate ATR index for 23 subjects with major depressive disorder who were treated for 8 weeks with fluoxetine (FLX) 20 mg (n = 12) or placebo (n = 11). The 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HamD17) assessed symptom severity; ATR index was assessed as a predictor of percent change in HamD17 score, endpoint response (≥ 50% improvement) and remission (HamD17 score ≤ 7). The ATR index was significantly associated with improvement on FLX (r = 0.64, P = 0.01), with a higher mean ATR index for FLX responders than for nonresponders (t(10) = -2.07, P = 0.03). Receiver operating characteristic analysis found a 0.83 area under the curve (P = 0.03), for ATR index as a predictor for FLX, while an optimized ATR index cutoff of 47.3 yielded 100% sensitivity, 66.7% specificity, 75% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. Importantly, ATR index did not correlate significantly with placebo outcomes. Results extend ATR index findings to include predictive validity with fluoxetine, suggesting that this biomarker has specificity for drug effects.

Mortality within 2 years after surgery in relation to low intraoperative bispectral index values and preexisting malignant disease.

BACKGROUND: A correlation between deep anesthesia (defined as time with Bispectral Index (BIS) <45; T(BIS <45)) and death within 1 yr after surgery has previously been reported. In order to confirm or refute these findings, we evaluated T(BIS <45) as an independent risk factor for death within 1 and 2 yr after surgery and also the impact of malignancy, the predominant cause of death in the previous report. METHODS: Mortality within 2 yr after surgery, causes of death and the occurrence of malignant disease at the time of surgery were identified in a cohort of 4087 BIS-monitored patients. Statistically significant univariate predictors of mortality were identified. In order to allow for comparison with previous data, the following multivariate analysis was first done without, and thereafter with, preexisting malignancy status, the predominant cause of death. RESULTS: One-hundred-seventy-four (4.3%) patients died within 1 yr and another 92 during the second year (totaling 6.5% in 2 yr). T(BIS <45) was a significant predictor of 1- and 2-yr mortality when preexisting malignant disease was not among the co-variates (hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [1.01-1.27] and 1.18 [1.08-1.29], respectively). Further exploration confined the significant relation between postoperative mortality and T(BIS <45) to patients with preexisting malignant diagnoses associated with extensive surgery and less favorable prognosis. The most powerful predictors of 2-yr mortality in the model, including preexisting malignancy, were ASA physical score class IV (HR 19.3 [7.31-51.1]), age >80 yr (HR 2.93 [1.79-4.79]), and preexisting malignancy associated with less favorable prognosis (HR 9.30 [6.60-13.1]).When the initial multivariate regression was repeated using preexisting malignancy status among the co-variates in the model, the previously significant relation between 1, and 2-yr mortality and T(BIS <45) did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Using a similar set of co-variates as in previous work, we confirmed the statistical relation between 1-yr mortality and T(BIS <45), and we extended this observation to 2-yr mortality. However, this relation is sensitive to the selection of co-variates in the statistical model, and a randomized study is required to demonstrate that there really is a causal impact from and T(BIS <45) on postoperative mortality and, if it does, the effect is probably very weak in comparison with co-morbidity as assessed by ASA physical score, the preexisting malignancy status at surgery and age.