The effect of universal testing and treatment for HIV on health-related quality of life - An analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster randomised trial.

Background: HIV treatment has clear Health-Related Quality-of-Life (HRQoL) benefits. However, little is known about how Universal Testing and Treatment (UTT) for HIV affects HRQoL. This study aimed to examine the effect of a combination prevention intervention, including UTT, on HRQoL among People Living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods: Data were from HPTN 071 (PopART), a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (2013-2018). Arm A received the full UTT intervention of door-to-door HIV testing plus access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count, Arm B received the intervention but followed national treatment guidelines (universal ART from 2016), and Arm C received standard care. The intervention effect was measured in a cohort of randomly selected adults, over 36 months. HRQoL scores, and the prevalence of problems in five HRQoL dimensions (mobility, self-care, performing daily activities, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression) were assessed among all participants using the EuroQol-5-dimensions-5-levels questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). We compared HRQoL among PLHIV with laboratory confirmed HIV status between arms, using adjusted two-stage cluster-level analyses. Results: At baseline, 7,856 PLHIV provided HRQoL data. At 36 months, the mean HRQoL score was 0.892 (95% confidence interval: 0.887-0.898) in Arm A, 0.886 (0.877-0.894) in Arm B and 0.888 (0.884-0.892) in Arm C. There was no evidence of a difference in HRQoL scores between arms (A vs C, adjusted mean difference: 0.003, -0.001-0.006; B vs C: -0.004, -0.014-0.005). The prevalence of problems with pain/discomfort was lower in Arm A than C (adjusted prevalence ratio: 0.37, 0.14-0.97). There was no evidence of differences for other HRQoL dimensions. Conclusions: The intervention did not change overall HRQoL, suggesting that raising HRQoL among PLHIV might require more than improved testing and treatment. However, PLHIV had fewer problems with pain/discomfort under the full intervention; this benefit of UTT should be maximised during roll-out.

Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation in resource poor settings: Towards an Artificial Intelligence-enabled and Geospatial-assisted decision support framework.

OBJECTIVES: To propose a novel framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation based on three components of Vulnerability, Vaccination, and Values (3Vs). METHODS: A combination of geospatial data analysis and artificial intelligence methods for evaluating vulnerability factors at the local level and allocate vaccines according to a dynamic mechanism for updating vulnerability and vaccine uptake. RESULTS: A novel approach is introduced including (I) Vulnerability data collection (including country-specific data on demographic, socioeconomic, epidemiological, healthcare, and environmental factors), (II) Vaccination prioritization through estimation of a unique Vulnerability Index composed of a range of factors selected and weighed through an Artificial Intelligence (AI-enabled) expert elicitation survey and scientific literature screening, and (III) Values consideration by identification of the most effective GIS-assisted allocation of vaccines at the local level, considering context-specific constraints and objectives. CONCLUSIONS: We showcase the performance of the 3Vs strategy by comparing it to the actual vaccination rollout in Kenya. We show that under the current strategy, socially vulnerable individuals comprise only 45% of all vaccinated people in Kenya while if the 3Vs strategy was implemented, this group would be the first to receive vaccines.

Relationship between psychological distress, health behaviours and future reports of hypertension among adults in East Zimbabwe: a cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Extensive cross-sectional evidence has demonstrated an association between psychological distress (PD) and hypertension. However, evidence on the temporal relationship is limited, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. The role of health risk behaviours including smoking and alcohol consumption in this relationship is also largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between PD and later development of hypertension, and how this association may have been influenced by health risk behaviours, among adults in east Zimbabwe. METHODS: The analysis included 742 adults (aged 15-54 years) recruited by the Manicaland general population cohort study, who did not have hypertension at baseline in 2012-2013, and who were followed until 2018-2019. In 2012-2013, PD was measured using the Shona Symptom Questionnaire, a screening tool validated for use in Shona-speaking countries including Zimbabwe (cut-off point: 7). Smoking, alcohol consumption and use of drugs (health risk behaviours) were also self-reported. In 2018-2019, participants reported if they had diagnosed with hypertension by a doctor or nurse. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between PD and hypertension. RESULTS: In 2012, 10.4% of the participants had PD. The odds of new reports of hypertension were 2.04 times greater (95% CI 1.16 to 3.59) among those with PD at baseline, after adjusting for sociodemographic and health risk behaviour variables. Female gender (adjusted odds ratio, AOR 6.89, 95% CI 2.71 to 17.53), older age (AOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.63 to 4.42), and greater wealth (AOR 2.10, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.24 more wealthy, 2.88, 95% CI 1.24 to 6.67 most wealthy) were significant risk factors for hypertension. The AOR for the relationship between PD and hypertension did not differ substantially between models with and without health risk behaviours. CONCLUSION: PD was associated with an increased risk of later reports of hypertension in the Manicaland cohort. Integrating mental health and hypertension services within primary healthcare may reduce the dual burden of these non-communicable diseases.

Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.

Strengthening the HIV prevention cascade to maximise epidemiological impact in eastern Zimbabwe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: HIV prevention cascades provide a systematic understanding of barriers to prevention. In this study we used mathematical modelling to understand the consequences of these barriers and how the cascade could be strengthened to maximise epidemiological impact, providing potentially important insights for programmes. METHODS: We used an individual-based model of HIV transmission (PopART-IBM), calibrated to data from the Manicaland cohort from eastern Zimbabwe. HIV prevention cascade estimates from this cohort were used as probabilities for indicators in the model representing an individual's motivation, access, and capacity to effectively use pre-exposure prophylaxis, voluntary male medical circumcision, and condoms. We examined how current barriers affect the number and distribution of HIV infections compared with a no-barrier scenario. Using assumptions about how interventions could strengthen the HIV prevention cascade, we estimated the reduction in HIV infections over a 10-year period through addressing different elements of the cascade. FINDINGS: 21 200 new potentially avertable HIV infections will occur over the next 10 years due to existing HIV prevention cascade barriers, 74·2% of the 28 500 new infections that would occur with existing barriers in a population of approximately 1·2 million adults. Removing these barriers would reduce HIV incidence below the benchmarks for epidemic elimination. Addressing all cascade steps in one priority population is substantially more effective than addressing one step across all populations. INTERPRETATION: Interventions exist in eastern Zimbabwe to reduce HIV towards elimination, but barriers of motivation, access, and effective use prevent their full effect being realised. Interventions need to be multilayered and address all steps along the HIV prevention cascade. Models incorporating the HIV prevention cascade can help to identify the main barriers to greater effectiveness. FUNDING: National Institutes of Mental Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis funding from the UK Medical Research Council and UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

'Condoms are hard to get by': access to HIV prevention methods during lockdown of the COVID-19 epidemic in eastern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, health services were disrupted worldwide, including HIV prevention services. While some studies have begun to document the effects of COVID-19 on HIV prevention, little has been done to qualitatively examine how lockdown measures were experienced and perceived to affect access to HIV prevention methods in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: To explore how the COVID-19 pandemic was perceived to affect access to HIV prevention methods in eastern Zimbabwe. METHOD: This article draws on qualitative data from the first three data collection points (involving telephone interviews, group discussions, and photography) of a telephone and WhatsApp-enabled digital ethnography. Data were collected from 11 adolescent girls and young women and five men over a 5-month period (March-July 2021). The data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Participants reported widespread interruption to their condom supply when beerhalls were shut down as part of a nationwide lockdown. Restrictions in movement meant that participants who could afford to buy condoms from larger supermarkets or pharmacies were unable to. Additionally, the police reportedly refused to issue letters granting permission to travel for the purpose of accessing HIV prevention services. The COVID-19 pandemic was also described to obstruct the demand (fear of COVID-19, movement restrictions) and supply (de-prioritised, stock-outs) for HIV prevention services. Nonetheless, under certain formal and informal circumstances, such as accessing other and more prioritised health services, or 'knowing the right people', some participants were able to access HIV prevention methods. CONCLUSION: People at risk of HIV experienced the COVID-19 epidemic in Zimbabwe as disruptive to access to HIV prevention methods. While the disruptions were temporary, they were long enough to catalyse local responses, and to highlight the need for future pandemic response capacities to circumvent a reversal of hard-won gains in HIV prevention.

Associations between HIV status and self-reported hypertension in a high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African population: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposure were associated with self-reported hypertension in Zimbabwe. DESIGN: Study data were taken from a cross-sectional, general population survey, which included HIV testing (July 2018-December 2019). SETTING: The data were collected in Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS: 9780 people aged 15 years and above were included. OUTCOME MEASURE: Self-reported hypertension was the outcome measure. This was defined as reporting a previous diagnosis of hypertension by a doctor or nurse. After weighting of survey responses by age and sex using household census data, χ2 tests and logistic regression were used to explore whether HIV status and ART exposure were associated with self-reported hypertension. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of self-reported hypertension was 13.6% (95% CI 12.9% to 14.2%) and the weighted prevalence of HIV was 11.1% (10.4% to 11.7%). In univariable analyses, there was no evidence of a difference in the weighted prevalence of self-reported hypertension between people living with HIV (PLHIV) and HIV-negative people (14.1%, 11.9% to 16.3% vs 13.3%, 12.6% to 14.0%; p=0.503) or between ART-exposed and ART-naive PLHIV (14.8%, 12.0% to 17.7% vs 12.8%, 9.1% to 16.4%,p=0.388). Adjusting for socio-demographic variables in logistic regression did not alter this finding (ORs:HIV status:0.88, 0.70 to 1.10, p=0.261; ART exposure:0.83, 0.53 to 1.30, p=0.411). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one in seven PLHIV self-reported having hypertension, highlighting an important burden of disease. However, no associations were found between HIV status or ART exposure and self-reported hypertension, suggesting that it will be valuable to focus on managing other risk factors for hypertension in this population. These findings should be fully accounted for as Zimbabwe reorients its health system towards non-communicable disease control and management.

Temporal discrepancies in "rapid" HIV testing: explaining misdiagnoses at the point-of-care in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests have revolutionized the HIV response in low resource and high HIV prevalence settings. However, disconcerting levels of misdiagnosis at the point-of-care call for research into their root causes. As rapid HIV tests are technologies that cross borders and have inscribed within them assumptions about the context of implementation, we set out to explore the (mis)match between intended and actual HIV testing practices in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We examined actual HIV testing practices through participant observations in four health facilities and interviews with 28 rapid HIV testers. As time was identified as a key sphere of influence in thematic analyses of the qualitative data, a further layer of analysis juxtaposed intended (as scripted in operating procedures) and actual HIV testing practices from a temporal perspective. RESULTS: We uncover substantial discrepancies between the temporal flows assumed and inscribed into rapid HIV test kits (their intended use) and those presented by the high frequency testing and low resource and staffing realities of healthcare settings in Zimbabwe. Aside from pointing to temporal root causes of misdiagnosis, such as the premature reading of test results, our findings indicate that the rapidity of rapid diagnostic technologies is contingent on a slow, steady, and controlled environment. This not only adds a different dimension to the meaning of "rapid" HIV testing, but suggests that errors are embedded in the design of the diagnostic tests and testing strategies from the outset, by inscribing unrealistic assumptions about the context within which they used. CONCLUSION: Temporal analyses can usefully uncover difficulties in attuning rapid diagnostic test technologies to local contexts. Such insight can help explain potential misdiagnosis 'crisis points' in point-of-care testing, and the need for public health initiatives to identify and challenge the underlying temporal root causes of misdiagnosis.

"It will not be easy to accept": Parents conflicting attitudes towards pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention amongst adolescent girls and young women.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, is a pill that has been hailed as a 'game changer' for HIV prevention, based on the belief it provides adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) with a level of user-control. However, engagement with PrEP is often dependent on societal factors, such as social attitudes towards gender, sexuality, and PrEP. As parents' communication on sexual and reproductive health issues with AGYW are central to HIV prevention, it is critical to explore how parents talk and think about PrEP. OBJECTIVE: To examine parental attitudes towards PrEP for HIV prevention amongst adolescent girls and young women in eastern Zimbabwe. METHOD: A qualitative interview study with 14 parents from two districts in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. Interviews were transcribed, translated, and subjected to thematic network analysis. The concept of 'attitudes' steered the analytical work. RESULTS: Parents' attitudes towards PrEP are conflictual, multi-layered, and contingent on the context in which they reflect and talk about PrEP. While parents aspired to be supportive of innovative HIV prevention methods and wanted to see girl-children protected from HIV, they struggled to reconcile this positive and accepting attitude towards PrEP with traditional 'good girl' notions, which stigmatize pre-marital sex. Although a few parents articulated an acceptance of PrEP use amongst their daughters, for many this was simply not possible. Many parents thus co-produce public gender orders that prevent adolescent girls and young women from engaging with PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: While parents' conflicting attitudes towards PrEP may provide spaces and opportunities for change, harmful gender norms and negative attitudes towards PrEP must be addressed at a community and cultural level. Only then can parents and their children have productive conversations about sexual health.

Rituals of care: Strategies adopted by HIV testers to avoid misdiagnosis in rapid HIV testing in Zimbabwe.

A growing number of studies highlight high levels of misdiagnosis in the scale-up of HIV rapid testing programmes, which often remain invisible to individual testers. Drawing on interviews with HIV testers and observations in four health facilities in Zimbabwe, we show that testers navigated the translation of the standardised, dis-embodied norms of laboratory-based testing into the body work of point-of-care testing through ritualisation of laboratory-practices in their daily clinical work. Yet, this was interrupted through the challenging work conditions the testers face. They ritualised careful procedures, forcing themselves to focus even if queues were long, and making quality assurance procedures part of their daily routine. They actively tried to reduce their workloads and double-checked and discussed unexpected results, especially when a test result did not match their evaluation of clients' circumstances or clinical status. This helped not only to increase confidence in the authenticity of their diagnosis, but also to share responsibility for potential errors. Existing approaches to tackle the problem of misdiagnosis through quality assurance (QA) procedures mainly focus on adjusting individual testers' performance and ensuring that basic testing resources were present, thus falling short of creating a work environment that is conducive to high quality testing.

Status of the HIV epidemic in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Manicaland province in eastern Zimbabwe has a high incidence of HIV. Completion of the seventh round of the Manicaland Survey in 2018-2019 provided the opportunity to assess the state of the epidemic prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims were to: a) estimate HIV seroprevalence and assess whether prevalence has declined since the last round of the survey (2012-2013), b) describe and analyse the socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors for HIV infection and c) describe the HIV treatment cascade. METHODS: Participants were administered individual questionnaires collecting data on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual relationships, HIV prevention methods and treatment access, and were tested for HIV. Descriptive analyses were followed by univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors for HIV seropositvity using logistic regression modelling based on the proximate-determinants framework. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 11.3% [95% CI; 10.6-12.0] and was higher in females than males up to 45-49 years. Since 2012-2013 HIV prevalence has significantly declined in 30-44 year-olds in males, and 20-44 year-olds in females. The HIV epidemic has aged since 2012-2013, with an increase in the mean age of HIV positive persons from 38 to 41 years. Socio-demographic determinants of HIV prevalence were church denomination in males, site-type, wealth-status, employment sector and alcohol use in females, and age and marital status in both sexes. Behavioural determinants associated with increased odds of HIV were a higher number of regular sexual partners (lifetime), non-regular sexual partners (lifetime) and condom use in both sexes, and early sexual debut and concomitant STIs in females; medical circumcision was protective in males. HIV status awareness among participants testing positive in our study was low at 66.2%. ART coverage amongst all participants testing positive for HIV in our study was 65.0% and was lower in urban areas than rural areas, particularly in males. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence has declined, and ART coverage increased, since 2012-2013. Majority of the associations with prevalence hypothesised by the theoretical framework were not observed in our data, likely due to underreporting of sexual risk behaviours or the treatment-as-prevention effect of ART curtailing the probability of transmission despite high levels of sexual risk behaviour. Further reductions in HIV incidence require strengthened primary prevention, HIV testing and linkage to risk behaviour counselling services. Our results serve as a valuable baseline against which to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV prevalence and its determinants in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, and target interventions appropriately.

How gender norms and 'good girl' notions prevent adolescent girls and young women from engaging with PrEP: qualitative insights from Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, has been hailed for its promise to provide women with user-control. However, gender-specific challenges undermining PrEP use are beginning to emerge. We explore the role of gender norms in shaping adolescent girls and young women's (AGYW) engagement with PrEP. METHODS: We draw on qualitative data from 12 individual interviews and three focus group discussions with AGYW from eastern Zimbabwe. Interviews were transcribed and thematically coded in NVivo 12. Emerging themes were further investigated using Connell's notion of 'emphasised femininity'. RESULTS: Participants alluded to the patriarchal society they are part of, with 'good girl' notions subjecting them to direct and indirect social control. These controls manifest themselves through the anticipation of intersecting sexuality- and PrEP-related stigmas, discouraging AGYW from engaging with PrEP. AGYW recounted the need for permission to engage with PrEP, forcing them to consider engaging with PrEP in secrecy. In addition, limited privacy at home, and fear of disclosure of their health clinic visits, further heightened their fear of engaging with PrEP. PrEP is not simply a user-controlled HIV prevention method, but deeply entrenched within public gender orders. CONCLUSION: AGYW face significant limitations in their autonomy to initiate and engage with PrEP. Those considering PrEP face the dilemma of Scylla and Charybdis: The social risks of stigmatisation or risks of HIV acquisition. Efforts to make PrEP available must form part of a combination of social and structural interventions that challenge harmful gender norms.

Improving access to pre-exposure prophylaxis for adolescent girls and young women: recommendations from healthcare providers in eastern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are at high risk of acquiring HIV. A growing number of sub-Saharan African countries are beginning to avail pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, but with limited success. Unpacking strategies to overcome barriers to the uptake of PrEP is critical to prevent HIV amongst AGYW. This article explores health professionals' views and recommendations on what is required to increase uptake of PrEP. METHODS: The study draws on interview data from 12 providers of HIV prevention services in eastern Zimbabwe. The healthcare providers were purposefully recruited from a mix of rural and urban health facilities offering PrEP. The interviews were transcribed and imported into NVivo 12 for thematic coding and network analysis. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed six broad strategies and 15 concrete recommendations which detail the range of elements healthcare providers consider central for facilitating engagement with PrEP. The healthcare providers called for: (1) PrEP marketing campaigns; (2) youth-friendly services or corners; (3) improved PrEP delivery mechanisms; (4) improvements in PrEP treatment; (5) greater engagement with key stakeholders, including with young people themselves; and (6) elimination of costs associated with PrEP use. These recommendations exemplify an awareness amongst healthcare providers that PrEP access is contingent on a range of factors both inside and outside of the clinical setting. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare providers are at the frontline of the HIV epidemic response. Their community-embeddedness, coupled with their interactions and encounters with AGYW, make them well positioned to articulate context-specific measures for improving access to PrEP. Importantly, the breadth of their recommendations suggests recognition of PrEP use as a complex social practice that requires integration of a combination of interventions, spanning biomedical, structural, and behavioural domains.

The (In)visibility of Misdiagnosis in Point-of-Care HIV Testing in Zimbabwe.

There is a global trend to introduce point-of-care diagnostic tests, enabling healthcare workers at any level to test, provide results, and initiate immediate treatment if necessary. This article explores how healthcare workers conducting rapid HIV tests - in contexts of limited external quality assurance mechanisms - ascertain the accuracy of their test results. Drawing on interview data and participant observations from health facilities in Zimbabwe, we open the black box of misdiagnosis (in)visibility and reveal a range of proxies and markers that HIV testers draw on to develop certainty, or question, the reliability of their diagnostic classifications.

The determinants and impacts of age-disparate relationships on women in Zimbabwe: A life course perspective.

Age-disparate relationships (ADR) with older men have been studied mostly in the context of HIV and found to be associated with increased HIV prevalence among young women in sub-Saharan Africa. Less is known about the impact of ADR on the broader life course of women. The objectives of this study are to identify the factors associated with being in ADR and estimate the association between ADR and a set of life outcomes in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. We used data from a general population open-cohort survey from 1998 to 2013 in Manicaland. We applied binary logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios for association between socio-demographic determinants and ADR and multinomial logistic regression models to estimate the association between ADR and women's life outcomes. We found that women with less education, younger age at first sex and first marriage were more likely to be in ADR, and women in ADR have male partners with less education and less skilled employment. In terms of life and relationship outcomes, women in ADR had mostly negative life outcomes compared to women not in ADR. Future policies and research on ADR in women should reflect these complexities and study a wider range of life outcomes, beyond the commonly studied narrower topics such as HIV.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: a modelling analysis of observational population-based cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: As the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa matures, evidence about the age distribution of new HIV infections and how this distribution has changed over the epidemic is needed to guide HIV prevention. We aimed to assess trends in age-specific HIV incidence in six population-based cohort studies in eastern and southern Africa, reporting changes in mean age at infection, age distribution of new infections, and birth cohort cumulative incidence. METHODS: We used a Bayesian model to reconstruct age-specific HIV incidence from repeated observations of individuals' HIV serostatus and survival collected among population HIV cohorts in rural Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, in a collaborative analysis of the ALPHA network. We modelled HIV incidence rates by age, time, and sex using smoothing splines functions. We estimated incidence trends separately by sex and study. We used estimated incidence and prevalence results for 2000-17, standardised to study population distribution, to estimate mean age at infection and proportion of new infections by age. We also estimated cumulative incidence (lifetime risk of infection) by birth cohort. FINDINGS: Age-specific incidence declined at all ages, although the timing and pattern of decline varied by study. The mean age at infection was higher in men (cohort mean 27·8-34·6 years) than in women (24·8-29·6 years). Between 2000 and 2017, the mean age at infection per cohort increased slightly: 0·5 to 2·8 years among men and -0·2 to 2·5 years among women. Across studies, between 38% and 63% (cohort medians) of the infections in women were among those aged 15-24 years and between 30% and 63% of infections in men were in those aged 20-29 years. Lifetime risk of HIV declined for successive birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among women aged 15-24 years and men aged 20-29 years, supporting focused prevention in these groups. However, 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing.

The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the distribution of sexual partner ages over age and sex. We identified which probability distributions and outcome specifications best captured variation in partner age and quantified the benefits of modelling these data using distributional regression. We found that distributional regression with a sinh-arcsinh distribution replicated observed partner age distributions most accurately across three geographically diverse data sets. This framework can be extended with well-known hierarchical modelling tools and can help improve estimates of sexual age-mixing dynamics.

Association between HIV infection and hypertension: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: Improved access to effective antiretroviral therapy has meant that people living with HIV (PLHIV) are surviving to older ages. However, PLHIV may be ageing differently to HIV-negative individuals, with dissimilar burdens of non-communicable diseases, such as hypertension. While some observational studies have reported a higher risk of prevalent hypertension among PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals, others have found a reduced burden. To clarify the relationship between HIV and hypertension, we identified observational studies and pooled their results to assess whether there is a difference in hypertension risk by HIV status. METHODS: We performed a global systematic review and meta-analysis of published cross-sectional studies that examined hypertension risk by HIV status among adults aged > 15 (PROSPERO: CRD42019151359). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and Cochrane CENTRAL to August 23, 2020, and checked reference lists of included articles. Our main outcome was the risk ratio for prevalent hypertension in PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals. Summary estimates were pooled with a random effects model and meta-regression explored whether any difference was associated with study-level factors. RESULTS: Of 21,527 identified studies, 59 were eligible (11,101,581 participants). Crude global hypertension risk was lower among PLHIV than HIV-negative individuals (risk ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.96), although heterogeneity between studies was high (I2 = 97%, p < 0.0001). The relationship varied by continent, with risk higher among PLHIV in North America (1.12, 1.02-1.23) and lower among PLHIV in Africa (0.75, 0.68-0.83) and Asia (0.77, 0.63-0.95). Meta-regression revealed strong evidence of a difference in risk ratios when comparing North American and European studies to African ones (North America 1.45, 1.21-1.74; Europe 1.20, 1.03-1.40). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the relationship between HIV status and prevalent hypertension differs by region. The results highlight the need to tailor hypertension prevention and care to local contexts and underscore the importance of rapidly optimising integration of services for HIV and hypertension in the worst affected regions. The role of different risk factors for hypertension in driving context-specific trends remains unclear, so development of further cohorts of PLHIV and HIV-negative controls focused on this would also be valuable.