RESUMO
Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.
Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.
RESUMO
Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.
Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.
Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Leishmaniose Visceral/diagnóstico , Leishmaniose Visceral/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Brasil/epidemiologia , Incidência , Modelos EstatísticosRESUMO
Potential breeding containers for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are found in different environments, these places are considered by the National Dengue Control Program in Brazil as strategic points (SP), which have favorable conditions for the development of those insects. The aim of this study is to identify potential breeding containers for A. aegypti and A. albopictus at strategic points in the city of Codó, Maranhão. This study was conducted in five districts, one in each administrative area of the city. A survey of the types and quantity of existing strategic points in each neighborhood was carried out, and surveys of these properties were carried out to inspect the potential breeding containers, with the collection of the vectors' number of immatures found at them. 125 properties were inspected of which 76.91% and 81.25% were vacant lots in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. There was a difference between the median of the different strategic points (H = 21.96; p < 0.0001), For A. aegypti, there was no difference between the medians of number of immatures regarding the strategic points (H = 3.71; p = 0.28). The total number of immature A. albopictus was higher in vacant lots than in workshops (H = 9.41; p = 0.02, p < 0.05). 4,356 and 4,911 potential breeding containers were found in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. Regarding the potential breeding containers, 7 (0.16%) and 47 (0.96%) were found with immature vectors, in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. There were more positive containers in the rainy season for which there was a difference between the median of the number of mosquitoes per positive container (H = 15.66; p = 0.01), the number of immatures for the tires group was greater than Vases and Fixed groups (p < 0.05); the same result was observed in the analyses of the species in the separate form. The impressive number of potential breeding containers found in the SP in both seasons highlights the importance of developing control strategies for these vectors, with emphasis on places such as vacant lots, workshops, tire shops and junkyards, which are serving as dispersal urban sites of vectors.
Assuntos
Aedes , Animais , Brasil , Cidades , Estações do Ano , LarvaRESUMO
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.
Assuntos
Leishmaniose Visceral , Adolescente , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Leishmaniose Visceral/diagnóstico , Leishmaniose Visceral/epidemiologia , Masculino , Modelos Estatísticos , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Abstract Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.
Resumo A leishmaniose cutânea (CL) é uma doença tropical negligenciada, com ampla distribuição nas Américas. O Brasil é um país endêmico e apresenta casos em todos os estados. Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a ocorrência, os fatores clínicos e epidemiológicos subjacentes e a correlação de variáveis climáticas com a frequência de casos de CL notificados no município de Caxias, estado do Maranhão, Brasil. Este é um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo e descritivo, com base em dados extraídos da Notificação do Sistema Brasileiro de Informação de Doenças, de 2007 a 2017. Dados máximos e mínimos de temperatura, precipitação e umidade relativa do ar foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foram analisados 201 casos de CL autóctones relatados. A predominância de casos foi observada no sexo masculino (70,1%). A faixa etária entre 31 e 60 anos foi a mais afetada, com 96 casos (47,9%). Do número total de casos registrados, 38,8% dos indivíduos afetados estavam envolvidos em atividades relacionadas à agricultura. A distribuição georreferenciada revelou a heterogeneidade da ocorrência da doença, com casos concentrados nas regiões oeste e sul do município. Foi detectada associação entre a umidade relativa do ar (média mensal) e o número de casos de CL por mês (p = 0,04). O CL continua sendo uma questão preocupante de saúde pública em Caxias. Nesse contexto, há uma necessidade premente de fortalecer medidas de prevenção e controle da doença por meio da rede de serviços de saúde do município, considerando as particularidades locais e regionais.
Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Leishmaniose Cutânea/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Cidades , Meio AmbienteRESUMO
Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.
Assuntos
Leishmaniose Cutânea , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Leishmaniose Cutânea/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Abstract Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.
Resumo A leishmaniose cutânea (CL) é uma doença tropical negligenciada, com ampla distribuição nas Américas. O Brasil é um país endêmico e apresenta casos em todos os estados. Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a ocorrência, os fatores clínicos e epidemiológicos subjacentes e a correlação de variáveis climáticas com a frequência de casos de CL notificados no município de Caxias, estado do Maranhão, Brasil. Este é um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo e descritivo, com base em dados extraídos da Notificação do Sistema Brasileiro de Informação de Doenças, de 2007 a 2017. Dados máximos e mínimos de temperatura, precipitação e umidade relativa do ar foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foram analisados 201 casos de CL autóctones relatados. A predominância de casos foi observada no sexo masculino (70,1%). A faixa etária entre 31 e 60 anos foi a mais afetada, com 96 casos (47,9%). Do número total de casos registrados, 38,8% dos indivíduos afetados estavam envolvidos em atividades relacionadas à agricultura. A distribuição georreferenciada revelou a heterogeneidade da ocorrência da doença, com casos concentrados nas regiões oeste e sul do município. Foi detectada associação entre a umidade relativa do ar (média mensal) e o número de casos de CL por mês (p = 0,04). O CL continua sendo uma questão preocupante de saúde pública em Caxias. Nesse contexto, há uma necessidade premente de fortalecer medidas de prevenção e controle da doença por meio da rede de serviços de saúde do município, considerando as particularidades locais e regionais.