Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation.

Communication theory suggests that interactive dialog rather than information transmission is necessary for climate change action, especially for complex systems like agriculture. Climate analogs-locations whose current climate is similar to a target location's future climate-have garnered recent interest as transmitting more relatable information; however, they have unexplored potential in facilitating meaningful dialogs, and whether the way the analogs are developed could make a difference. We developed climate context-specific analogs based on agriculturally-relevant climate metrics for US specialty crop production, and explored their potential for facilitating dialogs on climate adaptation options. Over 80% of US specialty crop counties had acceptable US analogs for the mid-twenty-first century, especially in the West and Northeast which had greater similarities in the crops produced across target-analog pairs. Western counties generally had analogs to the south, and those in other regions had them to the west. A pilot dialog of target-analog pairs showed promise in eliciting actionable adaptation insights, indicating potential value in incorporating analog-driven dialogs more broadly in climate change communication.

Making Healthy, Sustainable Diets Accessible and Achievable: A New Framework for Assessing the Nutrition, Environmental, and Equity Impacts of Packaged Foods.

There is a growing global consensus among food system experts that diets and how we source our foods must change. The sustainable nutrition community continues exploring the environmental impact and dietary value of foods. Packaged foods have been largely ignored within the dialogue, and if they are addressed, existing frameworks tend to label them all as "ultraprocessed" and uniformly discourage their consumption. This approach lacks the nuance needed to holistically evaluate packaged foods within recommended dietary patterns. Additionally, there is considerable diversity of opinion within the literature on these topics, especially on how best to improve nutrition security in populations most at risk of diet-related chronic disease. In support of addressing these challenges, 8 sustainability and nutrition experts were convened by Clif Bar & Company for a facilitated discussion on the urgent need to drive adoption of healthy, sustainable diets; the crucial role that certain packaged foods can play in helping make such diets achievable and accessible; and the need for actionable guidance around how to recommend and choose packaged foods that consider human, societal, and planetary health. This article summarizes the meeting discussion, which informed the development of a proposed framework based on guiding principles for defining sustainable, nutritious packaged foods across key nutrition, environmental, economic, and sociocultural well-being indicators. Although additional research is needed to substantiate specific metrics in order to operationalize the framework, it is intended to be a foundation from which to build and refine as science and measurement capabilities advance, and an important step toward broader adoption of healthy, sustainable diets.

Towards a multiscale crop modelling framework for climate change adaptation assessment.

Predicting the consequences of manipulating genotype (G) and agronomic management (M) on agricultural ecosystem performances under future environmental (E) conditions remains a challenge. Crop modelling has the potential to enable society to assess the efficacy of G × M technologies to mitigate and adapt crop production systems to climate change. Despite recent achievements, dedicated research to develop and improve modelling capabilities from gene to global scales is needed to provide guidance on designing G × M adaptation strategies with full consideration of their impacts on both crop productivity and ecosystem sustainability under varying climatic conditions. Opportunities to advance the multiscale crop modelling framework include representing crop genetic traits, interfacing crop models with large-scale models, improving the representation of physiological responses to climate change and management practices, closing data gaps and harnessing multisource data to improve model predictability and enable identification of emergent relationships. A fundamental challenge in multiscale prediction is the balance between process details required to assess the intervention and predictability of the system at the scales feasible to measure the impact. An advanced multiscale crop modelling framework will enable a gene-to-farm design of resilient and sustainable crop production systems under a changing climate at regional-to-global scales.

Growing Progress in the Evolving Science, Business, and Policy of Sustainable Nutrition.

A session was convened at the ASN Nutrition 2018 annual meeting to discuss the scientific evidence on what makes individual foods and dietary patterns both sustainable and nutritious, and the role of various stakeholders in the actions needed to implement food systems that deliver "sustainable nutrition." This commentary is a structured synthesis of the primary themes of the session, and concludes with a set of implications and research recommendations. Consumers are becoming increasingly aware of the environmental implications of what they eat, and there is growing momentum toward changes in the food system. However, ecological challenges persist, and although the literature is evolving, methodologic improvements are needed in the scientific approaches to address dietary patterns that meet nutrition needs in more holistically sustainable ways. The session concluded with encouraging evidence that consumers, businesses, scientists, and policy-makers are collectively "rising to the occasion," with cross-sectoral partnerships to address these issues.

Nutritional Sustainability: Aligning Priorities in Nutrition and Public Health with Agricultural Production.

Nutrition science-based dietary advice urges changes that may have a great impact on agricultural systems. For example, the 2016 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) recommends greatly increased fruit and vegetable consumption, but the present domestic production is insufficient to accommodate large-scale adoption of these guidelines. Increasing production to the extent needed to meet the DGA will necessitate changes in an already stressed agriculture and food system and will require nutrition and agriculture professionals to come together in open and collegial discourse. All involved need to understand the stress placed on the food system by increasing populations, changing diets, and changing environments, and recognize the major diet-based public health challenges. Furthermore, there is a need to understand the intricate interplay of the myriad parts of the food system and the vast amount of work necessary to make even small changes. New systems approaches are needed, especially at the research level, where nutrition, public health, agriculture, and the food industry work together to solve interconnected problems. Future well-being depends on a sustainable food system that continues to deliver optimal health with minimal impact on the environment.

Climate change: a crop protection challenge for the twenty-first century.

Convincing data now show that temperatures are increasing, and that changing precipitation patterns are already affecting agriculture. Predicted future impacts vary by region, but all are projected to suffer productivity declines by the late twenty-first century unless successful mitigation measures are implemented soon. Exacerbating the climate change challenge, doubling of overall crop productivity will be required by mid-century. Clearly, crop protection will become increasingly difficult as higher-yielding varieties present a larger and more tempting target to all pests, and the pests themselves extend their ranges poleward and into other new geographies owing to reduced winter kill and longer growing seasons. Fortunately, good progress on enhancing crop protection technology to meet these challenges is already being made, but the scope of this climatic provocation is such that complacency is not an option. Increased investment into new technologies and adoption of new agricultural practices with improved adaptive and mitigation potential are both essential.

Sustainable use of glyphosate in North American cropping systems.

Roundup Ready (glyphosate-resistant) cropping systems enable the use of glyphosate, a non-selective herbicide that offers growers several benefits, including superior weed control, flexibility in weed control timing and economic advantages. The rapid adoption of such crops in North America has resulted in greater glyphosate use and concern over the potential for weed resistance to erode the sustainability of its efficacy. Computer modeling is one method that can be used to explore the sustainability of glyphosate when used in glyphosate-resistant cropping systems. Field tests should help strengthen the assumptions on which the models are based, and have been initiated for this purpose. Empirical evaluations of published data show that glyphosate-resistant weeds have an appearance rate of 0.007, defined as the number of newly resistant species per million acres treated, which ranks low among herbicides used in North America. Modeling calculations and ongoing field tests support a practical recommendation for growers occasionally to include other herbicides in glyphosate-resistant cropping systems, to lower further the potential for new resistance to occur. The presented data suggest that the sustainability of glyphosate in North America would be enhanced by prudent use of additional herbicides in glyphosate-resistant cropping systems.

Modeling the impact of alternative hosts on Helicoverpa zea adaptation to bollgard cotton.

For highly polyphagous cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., pests such as Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), a substantial portion of the larval population develops on noncotton alternative hosts. These noncotton hosts potentially provide a natural refuge for H. zea, thereby slowing the evolution of resistance to the Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt)-derived Cry1Ac protein present in Bollgard cotton. Here, we demonstrate how the measured contribution of such alternative hosts can be included in estimating the "effective refuge" present for H. zea and in modeling resistance evolution in this species. A single-gene, two-compartment model was used in which one compartment represented corn, Zea mays L., and cotton that express the Cry1Ac protein or similar proteins, and the other compartment was the effective refuge, made up of a weighted average of non-Bt cotton and noncotton hosts. The effective refuge was estimated for each of six generations of H. zea based upon available data on larval population densities on different hosts and cropping patterns. Model runs were performed for regions centered on three states: Georgia, Mississippi, and North Carolina. Three sets of fitness cost assumptions for the putative resistance gene were used: none, low, and moderate, with either recessive or additive inheritance for resistance and fitness costs. For Georgia and North Carolina, resistance was predicted to take >30 yr to evolve except in the absence of fitness costs. For Mississippi, results were sensitive to fitness costs: >30 yr with moderate costs, 7-14 yr with low costs, and 6-10 yr without such costs.

Applicator exposure to acetochlor based on biomonitoring.

Biomonitoring was used to assess the combined dermal, oral, and inhalation exposure associated with the agricultural use of Harness Plus, an emulsifiable concentrate formulation of the herbicide acetochlor. Twenty Spanish farmers handled and applied acetochlor to maize in the spring of 2003, following the product label recommendations. Open- and closed-cabin applications were equally represented. Urine was collected during six consecutive days, starting the day prior to application. Daily composites were analyzed for 2-ethyl-6-methyl-aniline, a common chemophore representing the major urinary acetochlor metabolites. All applicators showed detectable concentrations in urine after application. Although, the open-cabin applicators treated fewer hectares, they showed significantly higher exposure compared to the closed-cabin applicators (average exposure: 0.004 and 0.002 mg/kg bw/day, respectively). Linear regression analysis suggested that untracked incidents had a significant impact on the total exposure. Other events that may have contributed to the observed exposure are repair of faulty equipment, accidental spillages, splashes, and inadequate use of protective gloves. The average margins of exposure (MOE) for farmers ranged from 23,000 (open cabin) to about 44,000 (closed cabin). For professional applicators the MOEs were 10-fold lower. These MOEs clearly indicate that no adverse health effects should be expected from agricultural acetochlor applications.

The acetochlor registration partnership: prospective ground water monitoring program.

The Acetochlor Registration Partnership conducted a prospective ground water (PGW) monitoring program to investigate acetochlor [2-chloro-N-(ethoxymethyl)-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-acetamide] transport to ground water at eight sites. The distribution of soil textures among these sites was weighted toward coarser soil types, while also including finer-textured soils that dominate most corn (Zea mays L.)-growing areas of the United States. Each site consisted of a 1.2-ha test plot adjacent to a 0.2-ha control plot. Suction lysimeters and monitoring wells were installed at multiple depths within each test and control plot to sample soil-pore water and near-surface ground water. Irrigation was applied to each site during the growing season to ensure water input of 110 to 200% of average historical rainfall. Acetochlor dissipated rapidly from surface soils at all sites with a DT(50) (time for 50% of the initial residues to dissipate) of only 3 to 9 d, but leaching was not an important loss mechanism, with only 0.25% of the 15,312 soil-pore water and ground water samples analyzed containing parent acetochlor at or above 0.05 microg L(-1). However, quantifiable residues of a soil degradation product, acetochlor ethanesulfonic acid, were more common, with approximately 16% of water samples containing concentrations at or above 1.0 microg L(-1). A second soil degradation product, acetochlor oxanilic acid, was present at concentrations at or above 1.0 microg L(-1) in only 0.15% of water samples analyzed. The acetochlor PGW program demonstrated that acetochlor lacks the potential to leach to ground water at detectable concentrations, and when applied in accordance with label restrictions, is unlikely to move to ground water at concentrations hazardous to human health.

The acetochlor registration partnership state ground water monitoring program.

The Acetochlor Registration Partnership (ARP) conducted a 7-yr ground water monitoring program at a total of 175 sites in seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. While acetochlor [2-chloro-N-(ethoxymethyl)-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-acetamide] was the primary focus, the analytical methods also quantified alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)-acetamide], atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine], metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)-acetamide], and two classes of soil degradates for acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor. Ground water samples were collected monthly for five years and quarterly for two additional years. All samples were analyzed for the presence of parent herbicides, and degradates were monitored during the last three years. Parent acetochlor was detected above 0.1 microg L(-1) in three or more samples at just seven sites. Alachlor and metolachlor were also rarely detected, but atrazine was detected in 36% of all samples analyzed. Even more widespread were the tertiary amide sulfonic acid (ethanesulfonic acid, ESA) degradates of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor, which were detected at 81, 76, and 106 sites, respectively. The other class of monitored soil degradates (oxanilic acid, OXA) was detected less frequently, at 26, 16, and 63 sites for acetochlor OXA, alachlor OXA, and metolachlor OXA, respectively. The geographic distribution of detections did not follow the pattern originally expected when the study began. Rather than being a function primarily of soil texture, the detection of these herbicides in shallow ground water was related to site-specific factors associated with local topography, the occurrence of surface water drainage features, irrigation practices, and the vertical positioning of the well screen.

The acetochlor registration partnership surface water monitoring program for four corn herbicides.

A surface drinking water monitoring program for four corn (Zea mays L.) herbicides was conducted during 1995-2001. Stratified random sampling was used to select 175 community water systems (CWSs) within a 12-state area, with an emphasis on the most vulnerable sites, based on corn intensity and watershed size. Finished drinking water was monitored at all sites, and raw water was monitored at many sites using activated carbon, which was shown capable of removing herbicides and their degradates from drinking water. Samples were collected biweekly from mid-March through the end of August, and twice during the off-season. The analytical method had a detection limit of 0.05 microg L(-1) for alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)-acetamide] and 0.03 microg L(-1) for acetochlor [2-chloro-N-(ethoxymethyl)-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-acetamide], atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine], and metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)-acetamide]. Of the 16528 drinking water samples analyzed, acetochlor, alachlor, atrazine, and metolachlor were detected in 19, 7, 87, and 53% of the samples, respectively. During 1999-2001, samples were also analyzed for the presence of six major degradates of the chloroacetanilide herbicides, which were detected more frequently than their parent compounds, despite having higher detection limits of 0.1 to 0.2 microg L(-1). Overall detection frequencies were correlated with product use and environmental fate characteristics. Reservoirs were particularly vulnerable to atrazine, which exceeded its 3 microg L(-1) maximum contaminant level at 25 such sites during 1995-1999. Acetochlor annualized mean concentrations (AMCs) did not exceed its mitigation trigger (2 microg L(-1)) at any site, and comparisons of observed levels with standard measures of human and ecological hazards indicate that it poses no significant risk to human health or the environment.

Fractal-based scaling and scale-invariant dispersion of peak concentrations of crop protection chemicals in rivers.

A new regulatory approach is needed to characterize peak pesticide concentrations in surface waters over a range of watershed scales. Methods now in common use rely upon idealized edge-of-field scenarios that ignore scaling effects. Although some watershed-scale regulatory models are available, their complexity generally prevents them from being used duringthe pesticide registration decision process, even though nearly all exposure to both humans and aquatic organisms can occur only at this scale. The theory of fractal geometry offers a simpler method for addressing this regulatory need. Mandelbrot described rivers as "space-filling curves" (Mandelbrot, B. B. The Fractal Geometry of Nature; Freeman: New York, 1983), a class of fractal objects implying two useful properties we exploit in this work. The first is a simple power-law relationship in which log-log plots of maximum daily concentrations as a function of watershed area tend to be linear with a negative slope. We demonstrate that the extrapolation of such plots down to smaller watersheds agrees with edge-of-field concentrations predicted using the Pesticide Root Zone Model, but only when the modeling results are properly adjusted for use intensity within the watershed. We also define a second useful property, "scale-invariant dispersion", in which concentrations are well described by a single analytical solution to the convective--dispersion equation, regardless of scale. Both of these findings make it possible to incorporate the effect of watershed scale directly into regulatory assessments.

Predicted impact of transgenic, herbicidetolerant corn on drinking water quality in vulnerable watersheds of the mid-western USA.

In the intensely farmed corn-growing regions of the mid-western USA, surface waters have often been contaminated by herbicides, principally as a result of rainfall runoff occurring shortly after application of these to corn and other crops. In some vulnerable watersheds, water quality criteria for chronic human exposure through drinking water are occasionally exceeded. We selected three settings representative of vulnerable corn-region watersheds, and used the PRZM-EXAMS model with the Index Reservoir scenario to predict corn herbicide concentrations in the reservoirs as a function of herbicide properties and use pattern, site characteristics and weather in the watersheds. We compared herbicide application scenarios, including broadcast surface pre-plant atrazine and alachlor applications with a glyphosate pre-plant application, scenarios in which losses of herbicides were mitigated by incorporation or banding, and scenarios in which only glyphosate or glufosinate post-emergent herbicides were used with corn genetically modified to be resistant to them. In the absence of drift, in almost all years a single runoff event dominates the input into the reservoir. As a result, annual average pesticide concentrations are highly correlated with annual maximum daily values. The modeled concentrations were generally higher than those derived from monitoring data, even for no-drift model scenarios. Because of their lower post-emergent application rates and greater soil sorptivity, glyphosate and glufosinate loads in runoff were generally one-fifth to one-tenth those of atrazine and alachlor. These model results indicate that the replacement of pre-emergent corn herbicides with the post-emergent herbicides allowed by genetic modification of crops would dramatically reduce herbicide concentrations in vulnerable watersheds. Given the significantly lower chronic mammalian toxicity of these compounds, and their vulnerability to breakdown in the drinking water treatment process, risks to human populations through drinking water would also be reduced.