State-wide implementation of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in specialized outpatient palliative care teams (ELSAH): A mixed-methods evaluation and implications for their sustainable use.

BACKGROUND: Such patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and patient-centered outcome measures as the Integrated Palliative Care Outcome Scale (IPOS), Phase of Illness, and IPOS Views on Care (IPOS VoC), facilitate patient-centered care and help improve quality. To ensure sustainability, implementation and usage should be adapted according to setting. When settings involve several distinct teams that differ in terms of views and working practices, it is more difficult to integrate outcome measures into daily care. The ELSAH study aimed to learn how health professionals working in specialized outpatient palliative care (SOPC) viewed the use of these outcome measures in daily care, and what they express is needed for successful sustainable, state-wide application. METHODS: We used a parallel mixed-methods design involving three focus groups (n = 14) and an online-survey based on normalization process theory (n = 76). Most participants were nurses and physicians from 19 SOPC-teams in Hesse, Germany. We used a triangulation protocol including convergence coding matrices to triangulate findings. RESULTS: The majority of health professionals were able to integrate the outcome measures into their working lives and said that it had become a normal part of their day-to-day work. To ensure their sustainable integration into daily care, the motivation and concerns of health professionals should be taken into consideration. Health professionals must clearly recognize how the measures help improve daily care and quality evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: To implement the outcome measures in a number of teams, it will be necessary to take individual team characteristics into account, because they influence motivation and concerncs. Further, it will be necessary to offer opportunities for them to engage in peer support and share information with other teams. The sustainable use of outcome measures in SOPC will require continuous support within each team as well as across teams. When several distinct teams are working in the same setting, a cross-team coordination unit can help to coordinate their work efficiently. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS-ID: DRKS00012421; www.germanctr.de/DRKS00012421.

The Treatment of Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: The first coronary artery bypass operation (CABG) was performed on May 2, 1960. The first percutaneous coro - nary intervention (PCI) was performed almost 20 years later. Since then, the invasive treatment of coronary artery disease (CAD) has moved into the spotlight of cardiac medical care. METHODS: We summarize the current status of medical and invasive CAD treatment through a selective review of the literature. RESULTS: More than 800 000 patients currently undergo invasive diagnostic and therapeutic procedures for CAD in Germany each year. The number of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedures rose to 65 000/year by the turn of the millennium and has been declining since then. In contrast, the number of PCIs in Germany rose to approximately 350 000/year by 2017, and a beginning decline is being observed at present. This development occurred even though, for elective patients, a survival advantage from an invasive procedure compared to medical therapy has been shown in direct comparison only for CABG. CONCLUSION: Conservative treatment is always the baseline treatment and has undergone major advances in the last few decades. Moreover, non-invasive coronary evaluation with computed tomography, as well as non-invasive cardiac stress imaging studies, are increasingly replacing primary invasive coronary evaluations. In this review, we illustrate a mechanistic concept of the appropriate use of CABG and PCI that can improve patient care, while underscoring the importance of interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaboration.

Validation of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction by the Arriba Instrument.

BACKGROUND: It is recommended in cardiovascular prevention guidelines that treatment should be based on overall cardiovascular risk. The arriba instrument has been widely used for this purpose in Germany. The aim of this study is to validate risk prediction by arriba with the aid of morbidity and mortality data from the population- based Study of Health in Pomerania. METHODS: In a longitudinal analysis, the arriba instrument was used to calculate the 10-year overall cardiovascular risk at baseline for subjects who had not sustained any prior cardiovascular event. Cardiovascular event rates were determined from follow-up data, and discrimination and calibration measures for the risk determination algorithm were calculated. RESULTS: Data from 1973 subjects (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 48% men) were included in the analysis. After a median follow-up of 10.9 years, cardiovascular events had occurred in 196 subjects, or 9.8%. The ratio of predicted to observed event rate was 0.8 (95% confidence interval: [0.5; 1.1]), 1.3 [1.0; 1.8], and 1.1 [0.8; 1.4] for subjects at low, intermediate, and high cardiovascular risk, respectively. Arriba underestimated cardiovascular event rates in women and overestimated them in persons aged 30-44 and 45-59. The area under curve was 0.84 [95% CI 0.81; 0.86]. CONCLUSION: The discrimination scores of the arriba instrument resemble those of SCORE-Germany and PROCAM, but a better adjustment to the target population would be desirable. The results support the recommendation of the German Guideline for Cardiovascular Risk Counseling in General Practice for the use of the arriba instrument. An unresolved problem is the failure to consider intervention effects, resulting in an overall mild overestimation of risk.

Integrating patient- and caregiver-reported outcome measures into the daily care routines of specialised outpatient palliative care: a qualitative study (ELSAH) on feasibility, acceptability and appropriateness.

BACKGROUND: The use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROM) and caregiver-reported outcome measures can raise the patient centeredness of treatment and improve the quality of palliative care. Nevertheless, the everyday implementation of self-report in patients and caregivers is complex, and should be adapted for use in specific settings. We aimed to implement a set of outcome measures that included patient and caregiver self- and proxy-reported outcome measures in specialised outpatient palliative care (SOPC). In this study, we explore how the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale (IPOS), IPOS Views on Care (IPOS VoC) and the Short-form Zarit Caregiver Burden Interview (ZBI-7) can be feasibly, acceptably and appropriately implemented in the daily care routines of SOPC. METHODS: Five SOPC teams were trained, and used the outcome measures in daily practice. Team members were mainly nurses and physicians. To investigate their feedback, we used a multi-method qualitative design consisting of focus groups with SOPC-team members (n = 14), field notes of meetings and conversations with the SOPC teams. In an iterative process, we analysed the findings using qualitative content analysis and refined use of the outcome measures. RESULTS: We found that integrating patient and caregiver outcome measures into daily care routines in SOPC is feasible. To improve feasibility, acceptability and appropriateness, the resulting burden on patients and relatives should be kept to a minimum, the usefulness of the measures must be understood, they should be used considerately, and administration must be manageable. We removed ZBI-7 from the set of measures as a result of feedback on its content and wording. CONCLUSIONS: SOPC-team members have reservations about the implementation of PROM in SOPC, but with appropriate adjustments, its application in daily care is feasible, accepted and perceived as appropriate. Previous to use, SOPC-team members should be trained in how to apply the measures, in the design of manageable processes that include integration into electronic documentation systems, and in ongoing evaluation and support. They should also be taught how useful the measures can be. TRIAL REGISTRATION: May 19th, 2017, German Clinical Trials Register DRKS-ID: DRKS00012421 .

Prevalence, aetiologies and prognosis of the symptom cough in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cough is a relevant reason for encounter in primary care. For evidence-based decision making, general practitioners need setting-specific knowledge about prevalences, pre-test probabilities, and prognosis. Accordingly, we performed a systematic review of symptom-evaluating studies evaluating cough as reason for encounter in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a search in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Eligibility criteria and methodological quality were assessed independently by two reviewers. We extracted data on prevalence, aetiologies and prognosis, and estimated the variation across studies. If justifiable in terms of heterogeneity, we performed a meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 21 eligible studies on prevalence, 12 on aetiology, and four on prognosis. Prevalence/incidence estimates were 3.8-4.2%/12.5% (Western primary care) and 10.3-13.8%/6.3-6.5% in Africa, Asia and South America. In Western countries the underlying diagnoses for acute cough or cough of all durations were respiratory tract infections (73-91.9%), influenza (6-15.2%), asthma (3.2-15%), laryngitis/tracheitis (3.6-9%), pneumonia (4.0-4.2%), COPD (0.5-3.3%), heart failure (0.3%), and suspected malignancy (0.2-1.8%). Median time for recovery was 9 to 11 days. Complete recovery was reported by 40.2- 67% of patients after two weeks, and by 79% after four weeks. About 21.1-35% of patients re-consulted; 0-1.3% of acute cough patients were hospitalized, none died. Evidence is missing concerning subacute and chronic cough. CONCLUSION: Prevalences and incidences of cough are high and show regional variation. Acute cough, mainly caused by respiratory tract infections, is usually self-limiting (supporting a "wait-and-see" strategy). We have no setting-specific evidence to support current guideline recommendations concerning subacute or chronic cough in Western primary care. Our study presents epidemiological data under non non-pandemic conditions. It will be interesting to compare these data to future research results of the post-pandemic era.

How can we ensure the success of specialised palliative home-care? A qualitative study (ELSAH) identifying key issues from the perspective of patients, relatives and health professionals.

BACKGROUND: Specialised palliative home-care supports patients with life-limiting diseases in their familiar surroundings. The number of palliative care teams and patients being cared for is increasing worldwide. To assess and improve quality, it is needed to understand, how specialised palliative home-care can be provided successfully. For this purpose we examined the views of all involved stakeholders. AIM: To identify the issues that patients, their relatives and involved health professionals view as important in ensuring the success of specialised palliative home-care. DESIGN: We used a qualitative design based on participant observations, interviews and focus groups following the principles of a Grounded Theory approach. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All specialised palliative home-care teams (n = 22) caring for adults in Hesse, Germany, participated. We conducted participant observations (n = 5), and interviewed patients (n = 14), relatives (n = 14) and health professionals working in or collaborating with specialised palliative home-care (n = 30). We also conducted focus groups (n = 4) with health professionals including a member check. RESULTS: Successful specialised palliative home-care needs to treat complex symptoms, and provide comprehensive care including organisation of care, involving relatives and addressing issues of death and dying. Sense of security for patients and relatives is key to enable care at home. Care delivery preferences include a focus on the quality of relationships, respect for individuality and the facilitation of self-determination. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of the identified key issues can help to ensure successful specialised palliative home-care. Knowledge of these should also be considered when researching and assessing quality of care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS-ID: DRKS00012421; http://www.germanctr.de.

Coughing children in family practice and primary care: a systematic review of prevalence, aetiology and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: For evidence-based decision making, primary care physicians need to have specific and reliable information on the pre-test probabilities of underlying diseases and a symptom's course. We performed a systematic review of symptom-evaluating studies in primary care, following three research questions: (1) What is the prevalence of the symptom cough in children consulting primary care physicians? (2) What are the underlying aetiologies of cough and the respective frequencies? (3) What is the prognosis of children with cough? METHODS: Following a pre-defined algorithm and independent double reviewer ratings we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE. All quantitative original research articles in English, French or German were included if they focused on unselected study populations of children consulting a primary care physician for cough. We used the random effects model for meta-analysis in subgroups, if justifiable in terms of heterogeneity. RESULTS: We identified 14 eligible studies on prevalence, five on aetiology and one on prognosis. Prevalence estimates varied between 4.7 and 23.3% of all reasons for an encounter, or up to estimates of 60% when related to patients or consultations. Cough in children is more frequent than in adults, with lowest prevalences in adolescents and in summer. Acute cough is mostly caused by upper respiratory tract infections (62.4%) and bronchitis (33.3%); subacute or chronic cough by recurrent respiratory tract infection (27.7%), asthma (up to 50.4% in cough persisting more than 3 weeks), and pertussis (37.2%). Potentially serious diseases like croup, pneumonia or tuberculosis are scarce. In children with subacute and chronic cough the total duration of cough ranged from 24 to 192 days. About 62.3% of children suffering from prolonged cough are still coughing two months after the beginning of symptoms. CONCLUSION: Cough is one of the most frequent reasons for an encounter in primary care. Our findings fit in with current guideline recommendations supporting a thoughtful wait-and-see approach in acute cough and a special awareness in chronic cough of the possibility of asthma and pertussis. Further evidence of aetiological pre-test probabilities is needed to assess the diagnostic gain based on patient history and clinical signs for differential diagnoses of cough in children.

Typology of drug discontinuation trials - Methodological recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Due to the increasing concerns about polypharmacy, there is a growing need for clinical recommendations for drug discontinuation. This requires studies investigating the process on several levels. This paper addresses the methodological problems of drug discontinuation trials (DDTs). To that end, we offer a new typology of research aims and corresponding methodological recommendations for trials evaluating drug discontinuation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-stage development process, including literature search and expert panels. RESULTS: Clinical trials are only required in cases of scientific uncertainty. We identified three situations of uncertainty associated with drug discontinuation from which we derived three study types: 1) Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness and/or safety of a drug; 2) Uncertainty regarding the procedure of discontinuing a previously taken drug; 3) Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of complex strategies used to discontinue one or more drugs. We developed specific methodological recommendations for each study type. CONCLUSION: We offer a comprehensive definition of research aims, study designs, and methodological recommendations regarding DDTs. The typology we propose can help investigators clarify their research aims and study design. The type-specific methodological recommendation should improve the quality of future drug discontinuation trials.

Regret among primary care physicians: a survey of diagnostic decisions.

BACKGROUND: Experienced and anticipated regret influence physicians' decision-making. In medicine, diagnostic decisions and diagnostic errors can have a severe impact on both patients and physicians. Little empirical research exists on regret experienced by physicians when they make diagnostic decisions in primary care that later prove inappropriate or incorrect. The aim of this study was to explore the experience of regret following diagnostic decisions in primary care. METHODS: In this qualitative study, we used an online questionnaire on a sample of German primary care physicians. We asked participants to report on cases in which the final diagnosis differed from their original opinion, and in which treatment was at the very least delayed, possibly resulting in harm to the patient. We asked about original and final diagnoses, illness trajectories, and the reactions of other physicians, patients and relatives. We used thematic analysis to assess the data, supported by MAXQDA 11 and Microsoft Excel 2016. RESULTS: 29 GPs described one case each (14 female/15 male patients, aged 1.5-80 years, response rate < 1%). In 26 of 29 cases, the final diagnosis was more serious than the original diagnosis. In two cases, the diagnoses were equally serious, and in one case less serious. Clinical trajectories and the reactions of patients and relatives differed widely. Although only one third of cases involved preventable harm to patients, the vast majority (27 of 29) of physicians expressed deep feelings of regret. CONCLUSION: Even if harm to patients is unavoidable, regret following diagnostic decisions can be devastating for clinicians, making them 'second victims'. Procedures and tools are needed to analyse cases involving undesirable diagnostic events, so that 'true' diagnostic errors, in which harm could have been prevented, can be distinguished from others. Further studies should also explore how physicians can be supported in dealing with such events in order to prevent them from practicing defensive medicine.

Thresholds, rules and defensive strategies: how physicians learn from their prior diagnosis-related experiences.

Background Health professionals are encouraged to learn from their errors. Determining how primary care physicians (PCPs) react to a case, in which their original diagnosis differed from the final outcome, could provide new insights on how they learn from experiences. We explored how PCPs altered their diagnostic evaluation of future patients after cases where the originally assumed diagnosis turned out to be wrong. Methods We asked German PCPs to complete an online survey where they described how the patient concerned originally presented, the subsequent course of events and whether they would change their diagnostic work-up of future patients. Qualitative methods were used to analyze narrative text obtained by this survey. Results A total of 29 PCPs submitted cases, most of which were ultimately found to be more severe than originally assumed. PCPs (n = 27) reflected on changes to their subsequent clinical decisions in the form of general maxims (n = 20) or more specific rules (n = 11). Most changes would have resulted in a lower threshold for investigations, referral and/or a more extensive collection of diagnostic information. PCPs decided not only to listen more often to their intuition (gut feelings), but to also practice more analytical reasoning. Participants felt the need for change of practice even if no clinical standards had been violated in the diagnosis of that case. Some decided to resort to defensive strategies in the future. Conclusions We describe mechanisms by which physicians calibrate their decision thresholds, as well as their cognitive mode (intuitive vs. analytical). PCPs reported the need for change in clinical practice despite the absence of error in some cases.

Prescribing practice of pregabalin/gabapentin in pain therapy: an evaluation of German claim data.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the prevalence and incidence of pregabalin and gabapentin (P/G) prescriptions, typical therapeutic uses of P/G with special attention to pain-related diagnoses and discontinuation rates. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis. SETTING: Primary and secondary care in Germany. PARTICIPANTS: Four million patients in the years 2009-2015 (anonymous health insurance data). INTERVENTION: None. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: P/G prescribing rates, P/G prescribing rates associated with pain therapy, analysis of pain-related diagnoses leading to new P/G prescriptions and the discontinuation rate of P/G. RESULTS: In 2015, 1.6% of insured persons received P/G prescriptions. Among the patients with pain first treated with P/G, as few as 25.7% were diagnosed with a typical neuropathic pain disorder. The remaining 74.3% had either not received a diagnosis of neuropathic pain or showed a neuropathic component that was pathophysiologically conceivable but did not support the prescription of P/G. High discontinuation rates were observed (85%). Among the patients who had discontinued the drug, 61.1% did not receive follow-up prescriptions within 2 years. CONCLUSION: The results show that P/G is widely prescribed in cases of chronic pain irrespective of neuropathic pain diagnoses. The high discontinuation rate indicates a lack of therapeutic benefits and/or the occurrence of adverse effects.

Study protocol: evaluation of specialized outpatient palliative care in the German state of Hesse (ELSAH study) - work package I: assessing the quality of care.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, patients suffering from life-limiting conditions are eligible for specialized outpatient palliative care (SOPC). Evaluation of the quality of this service lacks currently integration of patient-relevant outcomes. There is also no scientific consensus how to prove quality of care in the special context of SOPC adequately. Existing quality reports are primarily based on descriptive structural data which do not allow for estimation of process quality or result quality. The ELSAH study ('Evaluation of Specialized Outpatient Palliative Care in the German state of Hesse') aims to choose - or, if necessary, to adopt - to evaluate and to implement a suit of measures to assess, evaluate and monitor the quality of specialized, home-based palliative care. METHODS: All 22 SOPC teams providing their services in the state of Hesse, Germany, participate in the ELSAH study. The study is divided in two phases: a preparation phase and a main study phase. Based on the findings of the preparation phase we have chosen a preliminary set of instruments including the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale, Views on Care, Zarit Burden Interview, Phase of Illness, Goal Attainment Scaling, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, Consumer Quality Indices Palliative Care and Sense of Security in Care. During the main study phase, we will use a mixed-methods approach to evaluate the instruments' psychometric properties (reliability, validity, feasibility and practicability), to identify barriers, facilitators and limitations of their routine use and to explore how their use affects the care within the SOPC setting. DISCUSSION: At the end of this study, an outcome- and patient-centered, validated measurement approach should be provided, adapted for standardized evaluations in SOPC across patient groups, palliative care services and regions nationwide. The standardized application of instruments should allow for making valid statements and comparisons of health care quality in SOPC based on process- and outcome-evaluation rather than relying on structural data only. Moreover, the instruments might directly influence the care of patients in palliative situations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS-ID: DRKS00012421 ).

Diagnostic accuracy and interobserver agreement of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in the evaluation of residual lesions after treatment for malignant lymphoma and testicular cancer: a retrospective pilot study in 52 patients.

Value of contrast-enhanced-ultrasound (CEUS) in the evaluation of residual lesions (RL) after therapy in patients with malignant lymphomas (ML) and testicular cancer (TC) with regard to tumor activity. From May 2004-October 2010, in n = 52 patients with ML (n = 34) or TC (n = 18) and RL, B-mode-imaging and CEUS of the RL was performed. In CEUS, differentiation was made between high-enhancement (HE), low-(LE) or no-enhancement (NE) of the RL after therapy. Data were retrospectively evaluated. A positive test result (HE) was found in n = 13 (25%); a negative test result (LE/NE) in n = 39 (75%) patients. Sensitivity was 72.7%, specificity 87.8%, positive likelihood-ratio 5.96, negative likelihood-ratio 0.31. In the subgroup of ML a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 86.2% was reached. Active residual disease in ML and TC is associated with a marked enhancement, so CEUS might be helpful in the evaluation of RL, especially to exclude residual disease.

Prevalence, aetiologies and prognosis of the symptom dizziness in primary care - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Dizziness is a common reason for consulting a general practitioner and there is a broad range of possible underlying aetiologies. There are few evidence-based data about prevalence, aetiology and prognosis in primary care. We aimed to conduct a systematic review of symptom-evaluating studies on prevalence, aetiology or prognosis of dizziness in primary care. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE and EMBASE. Two independent researchers screened titles and abstracts according to predefined criteria. We included all studies evaluating the symptoms 'dizziness' or 'vertigo' as a reason for consultation in primary care. We extracted data about study population and methodology and prevalence, aetiology and prognosis. Two raters independently judged study quality and risk of bias. We investigated the variation across studies using forest plots, I2 and prediction intervals. Since we anticipated a great amount of clinical and unexplained statistical heterogeneity, we provided qualitative syntheses instead of pooled estimates. RESULTS: We identified 31 studies (22 on prevalence, 14 on aetiology and 8 on prognosis). Consultation prevalence differs between 1,0 and 15,5%. The most common aetiologies are vestibular/peripheral (5,4-42,1%), benign peripheral positional vertigo (4,3-39,5%), vestibular neuritis (0,6-24,0%), Menière's disease (1,4-2,7%), cardiovascular disease (3,8-56,8%), neurological disease (1,4-11,4%), psychogenic (1,8-21,6%), no clear diagnosis (0,0-80,2%). While studies based on subjective patient assessment reported improvement rates from 37 to 77%, these findings could not be confirmed when applying instruments that measure symptom severity or quality of life. CONCLUSION: There is a broad variety of possible underlying diseases for the symptom dizziness. There exist only few methodologically sound studies concerning aetiology and prognosis of dizziness.

The Diagnosis of Chronic Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic coronary heart disease (CHD) and acute myocardial infarction are endemic conditions. In Germany, an estimated 900 000 cardiac catheterizations were performed in the year 2014, and a percutaneous intervention was carried out in 40% of these procedures. It would be desirable to lessen the number of invasive diagnostic procedures while preserving the reliability of diagnosis. In this article, we present the updated recommendations of the German National Care Guideline for Chronic CHD with regard to diagnostic evaluation. METHODS: Updated recommendations for the diagnostic evaluation of chronic CHD were developed on the basis of existing guidelines and a systematic literature review and approved by a formal consensus process. RESULTS: 8-11% of patients with chest pain who present to a general practitioner and 20-25% of those who present to a cardiologist have chronic CHD. General practitioners should estimate the probability of CHD with the Marburg Heart Score. Specialists can use detailed tables for determining the pre-test probability of CHD; if this lies in the range of 15% to 85%, then non-invasive tests should be primarily used for evaluation and treatment planning. If the pretest probability is less than 15%, other potential causes should be ruled out first. If it is over 85%, the presence of CHD should be presumed and treatment planning should be initiated. Coronary angiography is needed only if therapeutic implications are expected (revascularization). Psychosocial risk factors for the development and course of CHD and the patient's quality of life should be regularly assessed as well. CONCLUSION: Non-invasive testing and invasive coronary angiography should be used only if their findings are expected to have therapeutic implications. Psychosocial risk factors, the quality of life, and adherence to treatment are important components of these patients' diagnostic evaluation and long-term care.

Pooled individual patient data from five countries were used to derive a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care.

OBJECTIVE: To construct a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease (CAD) presenting with chest pain in primary care. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Meta-Analysis using 3,099 patients from five studies. To identify candidate predictors, we used random forest trees, multiple imputation of missing values, and logistic regression within individual studies. To generate a prediction rule on the pooled data, we applied a regression model that took account of the differing standard data sets collected by the five studies. RESULTS: The most parsimonious rule included six equally weighted predictors: age ≥55 (males) or ≥65 (females) (+1); attending physician suspected a serious diagnosis (+1); history of CAD (+1); pain brought on by exertion (+1); pain feels like "pressure" (+1); pain reproducible by palpation (-1). CAD was considered absent if the prediction score is <2. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. We applied this rule to a study setting with a CAD prevalence of 13.2% using a prediction score cutoff of <2 (i.e., -1, 0, or +1). When the score was <2, the probability of CAD was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.9%); when the score was ≥ 2, it was 43.0% (95% CI: 35.8-50.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction rules are a key strategy for individualizing care. Large data sets based on electronic health records from diverse sites create opportunities for improving their internal and external validity. Our patient-level meta-analysis from five primary care sites should improve external validity. Our strategy for addressing site-to-site systematic variation in missing data should improve internal validity. Using principles derived from decision theory, we also discuss the problem of setting the cutoff prediction score for taking action.

The differential diagnosis of tiredness: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Tiredness is one of the most frequent complaints in primary care. Although often self-limiting and frequently associated with psychosocial stress, patients but also their physicians are often uncertain regarding a serious cause and appropriate diagnostic work-up. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting on differential diagnosis of fatigue in primary care. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and conference abstracts were searched for primary care based studies of patients presenting with tiredness. Twenty-six studies were included. We report on anaemia, malignancy, serious organic disease, depression and the chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) as causes of tiredness as presenting complaint. RESULTS: We found considerable heterogeneity of estimates which was reduced by limiting our analysis to high quality studies. Prevalences were as follows-anaemia: 2.8 % (CI (confidence interval) 1.6-4.8 %); malignancy: 0.6 % (CI 0.3-1.3 %); serious somatic disease: 4.3 % (CI 2.7-6.7 %); depression 18.5 % (CI 16.2-21.0 %). Pooling was not appropriate for CFS. In studies with control groups of patients without the symptom of tiredness, prevalence of somatic disease was identical to those complaining of tiredness. Depression, however, was more frequent among those with tiredness. CONCLUSIONS: Serious somatic disease is rare in patients complaining of tiredness. Since prevalence is similar in patients without tiredness, the association may not be causal. Extensive investigations are only warranted in case of specific findings from the history or clinical examination. Instead, attention should focus on depression and psychosocial problems.

Predicting antibiotic prescription after symptomatic treatment for urinary tract infection: development of a model using data from an RCT in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Uncomplicated urinary tract infection (UTI) is often treated with antibiotics, resulting in increasing resistance levels. A randomised controlled trial showed that two-thirds of females with UTI treated symptomatically recovered without subsequent antibiotic treatment. AIM: To investigate whether there are differences between females with a UTI who were subsequently prescribed antibiotics and those who recovered with symptomatic treatment only, and to develop a model to predict those who can safely and effectively be treated symptomatically. DESIGN AND SETTING: This is a subgroup analysis of females assigned to ibuprofen in a UTI trial in general practices. METHOD: Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to select variables for a prediction model, The discriminative value of the model was estimated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and the effects of different thresholds were calculated within the model predicting antibiotic prescription and need for follow-up visits. RESULTS: Of the 235 females in the ibuprofen group, 79 were subsequently prescribed antibiotics within 28 days of follow-up. The final model included five predictors: urgency/frequency, impaired daily activities, and positive dipstick test results for erythrocytes, leucocytes, and nitrite. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.80). A reasonable threshold for antibiotic initiation would result in 58% of females presenting with UTI being treated with antibiotics. Of the remaining females, only 6% would return to the practice because of symptomatic treatment failure. CONCLUSION: The present model revealed moderately good accuracy and could be the basis for a decision aid for GPs and females to find the treatment option that fits best.

Causes of chest pain in primary care--a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To investigate the frequencies of different and relevant underlying etiologies of chest pain in general practice. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE. Two reviewers independently rated the eligibility of publications and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. We extracted data to calculate the relative frequencies of different underlying conditions and investigated the variation across studies using forest plots, I(2), tau(2), and prediction intervals. With respect to unexplained heterogeneity, we provided qualitative syntheses instead of pooled estimates. RESULTS: We identified 11 eligible studies comprising about 6500 patients. The overall risk of bias was rated as low in 6 studies comprising about 3900 patients. The relative frequencies of different conditions as the underlying etiologies of chest pain reported by these studies ranged from 24.5 to 49.8% (chest wall syndrome), 13.8 to 16.1% (cardiovascular diseases), 6.6 to 11.2% (stable coronary heart disease), 1.5 to 3.6% (acute coronary syndrome/myocardial infarction), 10.3 to 18.2% (respiratory diseases), 9.5 to 18.2% (psychogenic etiologies), 5.6 to 9.7% (gastrointestinal disorders), and 6.0 to 7.1% (esophageal disorders). CONCLUSION: This information may be of practical value for general practitioners as it provides the pre-test probabilities for a range of underlying diseases and may be suitable to guide the diagnostic process.