RESUMO
Background: Echocardiographic parameters representing impaired left atrial (LA) function and remodeling are of high value to predict atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for AF easily to apply in clinical routine containing echocardiographic parameters associated with LA remodeling and-function. Methods and Results: This monocentric, semi-blinded, controlled analysis included 235 patients to derive a prediction model. This prediction model was tested in a validation cohort encompassing 290 cardiovascular inpatients. The derivation and validation cohort included 54 (23%) and 66 (23%) patients with AF, respectively. Transthoracic echocardiography, comprising parameters indicating left atrial remodeling [septal/lateral total atrial conduction time (s/l PA-TDI)] and left atrial volume indexed to a' (LAVI/a') was performed in each patient. Based on multivariable regressions analysis, four variables were enclosed into the EAHsy (Echocardiography, Age, Hypertension)-AF risk score for AF prediction: Hypertension, Age, LAVI/a' and septal PA-TDI. In the validation cohort discrimination was strong (C-statistic 0.987, 95%CI 0.974-0.991) with an adequately performed calibration. The EAHsy-AF risk score was associated with a more precise prediction of AF in comparison to commonly used AF-scores (CHADS2-, ATLAS-, ARIC-, CHARGE-AF score). Conclusion: The EAHsy-AF-Score containing age, hypertension and echocardiographic parameters of atrial dysfunction and remodeling precisely predicts the incidence of AF in a general population of patients with cardiovascular disease. The EAHsy-AF risk score may enable more selective rhythm monitoring in specific patients at high risk for AF.
RESUMO
This study aimed to investigate the association of circulating biomarkers with echocardiographic parameters of atrial remodelling and their potential for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF). In patients with and without AF (n = 21 and n = 60) the following serum biomarkers were determined: soluble ST2 (sST2), Galectin-3 (Gal-3), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), microRNA (miR)-21, -29a, -133a, -146b and -328. Comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography was performed in all participants. Biomarkers were significantly altered in patients with AF. The echocardiographic parameter septal PA-TDI, indicating left atrial (LA) remodelling, correlated with concentrations of sST2 (r = 0.249, p = 0.048), miR-21 (r = -0.277, p = 0.012), miR-29a (r = -0.269, p = 0.015), miR-146b (r = -0.319, p = 0.004) and miR-328 (r = -0.296, p = 0.008). In particular, NT-proBNP showed a strong correlation with echocardiographic markers of LA remodelling and dysfunction (septal PA-TDI: r = 0.444, p < 0.001, LAVI/a': r = 0.457, p = 0.001, SRa: r = 0.581, p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regressions analysis highlighted miR-21 and NT-proBNP as predictive markers for AF (miR-21: hazard ratio (HR) 0.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04-0.7, p = 0.009; NT-proBNP: HR 1.002 95%CI 1.001-1.004, p = 0.006). Combination of NT-proBNP and miR-21 had the best accuracy to discriminate patients with AF from those without AF (area under the curve (AUC)= 0.843). Our findings indicate that miR-21 and NT-proBNP correlate with echocardiographic parameters of atrial remodeling and predict AF, in particular if combined.