Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time.

This study contributes a first comparison of current and potential threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change, as assessed by experts, when site and location characteristics (size, year of inscription to the World Heritage list, continent, climate zone and kind of site) are controlled for. The probability of a threat as well as its intensity is analysed. Another novelty lies in the use of data from the IUCN Conservation Outlook Assessment, covering all 245 Natural and Mixed World Heritage Sites across the world for three points in time: 2014, 2017 and 2020. The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rising temperatures, disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels. Results based on a simultaneous Probit model with random effects show that the probability of actual and potential climate change threats increases over time, but with differences for size, kind of site and location. The probability that a threat is identified is highest for marine and coastal sites, and for those in Latin America, while it is significantly lower for sites on the African continent. Larger sites have a higher probability of being assessed as at risk and the severity of threats is found to be lower for recently inscribed sites. The rate at which the likelihood of a threat assessment increases is consistent for both current and future situations, while the probability of the most severe threat is larger for the current than the future period. A serious threat from climate change is assessed as highest for locations in the tropical monsoon (current period) or the tropical savannah climate (future period). Estimations also show that pure descriptive statistics or bivariate correlations may not correctly identify the risk or the dignity of a threat.

A threat to the natural World Heritage site rarely happens alone.

This study contributes an empirical investigation of the likelihood that different external threats to a UNESCO Natural World Heritage Site occur in combination with each other when site characteristics and location are controlled for. For the purpose of the analysis, the World Heritage database and the UNESCO State of Conservation Reports are used and the nine most frequently appearing external threats are identified. These databases include 6852 site-year observations and 3316 threats over the period 1979-2023. The most commonly identified external threats are illegal activities, with eleven percent of all observations and mining with six percent. Transport infrastructure, tourism and visitor pressure are also common threats. Estimation results based on the multivariate Probit (equation system) model demonstrate that there are strong positive correlations between many pairs of the nine external threats. Most apparent are the links between illegal activities and loss of identity, social cohesion, changes in local population and community, water infrastructure (dams) and farming, as well as illegal activities and land conversion. There are also clear links between tourism and infrastructure. This emphasises that the various threats seldom appear in isolation from each other. Results also highlight that the threats have different drivers. Among the determinants, site characteristics and location are the most important ones. The likelihood of threats is highest for Natural Heritage Sites covered by forests or those in marine and coastal areas, Africa as well as the Arab region. It is also possible to identify a general increase in threats over time, although with a diminishing rate of growth towards the period 2015-2019. Contrary to this development and the general downturn in threats during the Covid-19 pandemic period of 2020-2023, pressure from tourism continues to grow. Methodologically, the results emphasize the need for multivariate Probit models when research goes beyond analyses of descriptive statistics and single equation approaches.

Importance of temporary and permanent snow for new second homes.

This study investigates empirically how natural snow depth and permanent snow affect the number of new second homes in Norway. One out of four Norwegian municipalities is partly covered by glaciers and permanent snow. In the winter seasons of 1983-2020, there is a decline in snow depth from 50 to 35 cm on average (based on 41 popular second-home areas in the mountains). Results of the fixed effects Poisson estimator with spatial elements show that there is a significant and positive relationship between natural snow depth in the municipality and the number of second homes started. There is also a significant and negative relationship between the number of new second homes in the municipality and a scarcity of snow in the surrounding municipalities. However, the magnitude of both effects is small. Estimates also show a strong positive relationship between the proportion of surface covered by permanent snow or glaciers in the municipality and new second homes. This implies that a decline in permanent snow and glaciers may make these areas less attractive for the location of second homes.

Reverse adoption of information and communication technology among organisers of academic conferences.

This study examines the formats offered for academic conferences in the mature stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two out of three organisers discontinue their usage of online video tools and focus on in-person conferences. Only one out of five conferences offers hybrid solutions and even fewer a virtual alternative (13%). Data for the analysis originate from 547 calls for proposals announced in Spring 2022 for conferences to be held during the period August 2022 to July 2023. Estimates using a multinomial logit model show that the planning time is significantly related to the choice of format offered. The longer the lead time, the more likely it is to offer an in-person conference. International travel restrictions and bans on gatherings for the location of the venue at the time of planning are significantly related to the choice of virtual, but not hybrid formats. There are also large differences in the choice across disciplines, with conferences in arts and humanities as well as natural sciences showing the lowest preference for the virtual format.

Threat Perception and Adaptive Capacity of Natural World Heritage Site Management.

This study offers new insights into the largest threats to natural and mixed World Heritage sites in developed countries as considered by their management. In addition to this, the capacity of the management to deal with threats is examined. An Ordered Probit model is used that distinguishes three groups of threats and four categories of adaptive capacity of the management. Data originate from the 2014 UNESCO Periodic Report II for sites in economically advanced countries (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea) linked to the World Heritage Site database. Estimation results reveal that the probability of a major threat to World Heritage sites is perceived to be highest in the category of climate change and extreme weather events, followed by local conditions affecting the physical structure (temperature, rain, dust). Sites in tropical climates are perceived as significantly more threatened, as are those earlier listed as in danger. The likelihood of perceiving a major threat is highest in Turkey, Italy, Norway and North America. Threats related to climate change are those the management has the lowest capacity to deal with when other important aspects are controlled for. Large and natural areas have a higher perceived administrative capacity to deal with threats than others.

Digital indicators of interest in natural world heritage sites.

Due to their remoteness or boundless nature, activities at Natural Heritage Sites are difficult to monitor. In this study, two digital measures of the interest in Natural Word Heritage Sites are compared: one ex ante based on the number of Wikipedia page views of the site and another ex post derived from actual visitation as measured by the number of Instagram posts. The entire UNESCO database, which includes 248 Natural World Heritage Sites is linked to the 2.8 million Wikipedia page views, the 58 million Instagram posts and the Köppen extreme climate zone categories. Quantile regressions reveal that the main association in common for the two indicators is the risk of the site losing its inscription. Presence in the UNESCO Danger list is associated with reduced interest in a site, particularly in the number of Instagram posts and in the top quartile of Wikipedia views. Years since inscription is also an important explanatory variable, especially for the Instagram posts and the Wikipedia views in the top quartile. The UNESCO selection criterion of outstanding beauty only relates to the Instagram posts. Climate zone is mainly linked to the ex post variable and its upper quartile, where the sites with the most attention are found. Wikipedia views are also negatively associated with sites in Africa, the Arab countries and Latin America. Elevation, size of the area as well as kind of site are all variables not significant. There is a significant correlation between the two outcome variables with a coefficient of 0.5. While the Instagram posts relate clearly to actual visits, the Wikipedia page views is considered a possible leading indicator of future interest in a site.

Domestic tourism demand in the North and the South of Europe in the Covid-19 summer of 2020.

This study investigates empirically changes in domestic summer tourism demand following the Covid-19 pandemic in 305 regions across six European countries (Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Spain and Sweden) based on official data. Five different groups of NUTS 3 regions are identified in accordance with a typology suggested by the OECD where density and connectivity are aspects of importance. Dynamic panel data estimations show that large metropolitan regions experience strong decreases in demand (approximately 30 per cent) both in July and August 2020. There are, however, clear differences between the Northern and Southern European countries. In the North, the remote regions encounter an increased demand that is partially offsetting losses in the large metropolitan regions. This pattern cannot be found in the South. The decline in domestic tourism flows to the major metropolitan areas is also more pronounced in the South of Europe, approximately 50 per cent per summer month compared with 20 per cent (July 2020) and stagnation (August 2020) in the North regions.

Spatial influence on the distribution of downhill skiers in Sweden.

This study investigates empirically how natural snow depth affects the number of downhill skiers. Data include the number of skier visits for the 32 largest ski resorts in Sweden from the 1998/1999 to the 2018/2019 seasons. Results of spatial dynamic estimations show that an increase in natural snow depth in the ski area has a significant negative impact on the number of skier visits in the short term, although the magnitude is small. This implies that a snow deficit leads to increased demand for downhill skiing both directly and indirectly (in the neighbouring areas). The variable snow depth in the neighbouring ski areas is not significantly different from zero, indicating that no spatial substitution takes place. There is, however, a strong positive relationship between skier visits to neighbouring areas, revealing that ski resorts are complements rather than substitutes. The long-term influence of snow depth is not significant, implying that the ski business is independent of variations in snow depth. Instead, the number of skier visits is mainly determined by past visits, revealing a high degree of persistence.

Determinants of CO2 emissions generated by air travel vary across reasons for the trip.

This study estimates factors of importance for the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions generated by travellers flying for different reasons based on representative Austrian micro data for the period 2014-2016. The annual average number of flights taken by adults vary between 0.1 (visiting friends) and 0.8 (going on holiday), and the amount of CO2e emissions generated by each return flight is approximately 1100 kg. This leads to a total of 6 million tonnes CO2e emissions per year. Results of the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimations reveal that the amount of CO2e emissions created is related to socio-demographic, locational and seasonal factors, although mainly for the largest group of travellers: the holiday makers. In this group, individuals with university degrees, young persons (16-24 years) and capital city residents generate the largest amounts of emissions, as opposed to persons with children and large households. Residents of the capital region each quarter cause 64 kg more CO2e emissions than inhabitants of rural areas, persons with university degrees create 74 kg larger emissions than those without degrees and young adults instigate 90 kg more emissions than middle-aged persons. CO2e emissions of holiday flights are highest in the first quarter of the year. The importance of education is also pronounced for CO2e emissions related to business travel, as is gender.

When international academic conferences go virtual.

This study investigates the extent to which international academic conferences changes format to virtual when faced by sudden Covid-19 related immobility. Data on 587 conferences in the fields of business, economics, information technology, management and other social sciences that were planned to be held between March and August 2020 are retrieved from authorised conference listings. Approximately 28% of the conferences changed to virtual format during the period of time studied. Probit estimations reveal that the probability of changing format to virtual increases with the country of location (United States), planning horizon and the available quality of broadband infrastructure in the scheduled conference country. However, the role of planning horizon differs across fields and location of the conference. The probability of virtual conferences is highest in the United States and for academic conferences in the field of information technology.