Phenotypic plasticity in tropical butterflies is linked to climatic seasonality on a macroevolutionary scale.

Phenotypic plasticity can be adaptive in fluctuating environments by providing rapid environment-phenotype matching and this applies particularly in seasonal environments. African Bicyclus butterflies have repeatedly colonized seasonal savannahs from ancestral forests around the late Miocene, and many species now exhibit seasonal polyphenism. On a macroevolutionary scale, it can be expected that savannah species will exhibit higher plasticity because of experiencing stronger environmental seasonality than forest species. We quantified seasonality using environmental niche modeling and surveyed the degree of plasticity in a key wing pattern element (eyespot size) using museum specimens. We showed that species occurring in highly seasonal environments display strong plasticity, while species in less seasonal or aseasonal environments exhibit surprisingly variable degrees of plasticity, including strong to no plasticity. Furthermore, eyespot size plasticity has a moderate phylogenetic signal and the ancestral Bicyclus likely exhibited some degree of plasticity. We propose hypotheses to explain the range of plasticity patterns seen in less seasonal environments and generate testable predictions for the evolution of plasticity in Bicyclus. Our study provides one of the most compelling cases showing links between seasonality and phenotypic plasticity on a macroevolutionary scale and the potential role of plasticity in facilitating the colonization of novel environments.

Exploring links between climatic predictability and the evolution of within- and transgenerational plasticity.

In variable environments, phenotypic plasticity can increase fitness by providing tight environment-phenotype matching. However, adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve only when the future selective environment can be predicted based on the prevailing conditions. That is, the juvenile environment should be predictive of the adult environment (within-generation plasticity) or the parental environment should be predictive of the offspring environment (transgenerational plasticity). Moreover, the environmental predictability can also shape transient responses such as stress response in an adaptive direction. Here, we test links between environmental predictability and the evolution of adaptive plasticity by combining time series analyses and a common garden experiment using temperature as a stressor in a temperate butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). Time series analyses revealed that across season fluctuations in temperature over 48 years are overall predictable. However, within the growing season, temperature fluctuations showed high heterogeneity across years with low autocorrelations and the timing of temperature peaks were asynchronous. Most life-history traits showed strong within-generation plasticity for temperature and traits such as body size and growth rate broke the temperature-size rule. Evidence for transgenerational plasticity, however, was weak and detected for only two traits each in an adaptive and non-adaptive direction. We suggest that the low predictability of temperature fluctuations within the growing season likely disfavors the evolution of adaptive transgenerational plasticity but instead favors strong within-generation plasticity.

Predictability of temporal variation in climate and the evolution of seasonal polyphenism in tropical butterfly communities.

Phenotypic plasticity in heterogeneous environments can provide tight environment-phenotype matching. However, the prerequisite is a reliable environmental cue(s) that enables organisms to use current environmental information to induce the development of a phenotype with high fitness in a forthcoming environment. Here, we quantify predictability in the timing of precipitation and temperature change to examine how this is associated with seasonal polyphenism in tropical Mycalesina butterflies. Seasonal precipitation in the tropics typically results in distinct selective environments, the wet and dry seasons, and changes in temperature can be a major environmental cue. We sampled communities of Mycalesina butterflies from two seasonal locations and one aseasonal location. Quantifying environmental predictability using wavelet analysis and Colwell's indices confirmed a strong periodicity of precipitation over a 12-month period at both seasonal locations compared to the aseasonal one. However, temperature seasonality and periodicity differed between the two seasonal locations. We further show that: (a) most females from both seasonal locations synchronize their reproduction with the seasons by breeding in the wet season but arresting reproduction in the dry season. In contrast, all species breed throughout the year in the aseasonal location and (b) species from the seasonal locations, but not those from the aseasonal location, exhibited polyphenism in wing pattern traits (eyespot size). We conclude that seasonal precipitation and its predictability are primary factors shaping the evolution of polyphenism in Mycalesina butterflies, and populations or species secondarily evolve local adaptations for cue use that depend on the local variation in the environment.

Seasonal environments drive convergent evolution of a faster pace-of-life in tropical butterflies.

New ecological niches that may arise due to climate change can trigger diversification, but their colonisation often requires adaptations in a suite of life-history traits. We test this hypothesis in species-rich Mycalesina butterflies that have undergone parallel radiations in Africa, Asia, and Madagascar. First, our ancestral state reconstruction of habitat preference, using c. 85% of extant species, revealed that early forest-linked lineages began to invade seasonal savannahs during the late Miocene-Pliocene. Second, rearing replicate pairs of forest and savannah species from the African and Malagasy radiation in a common garden experiment, and utilising published data from the Asian radiation, demonstrated that savannah species consistently develop faster, have smaller bodies, higher fecundity with an earlier investment in reproduction, and reduced longevity, compared to forest species across all three radiations. We argue that time-constraints for reproduction favoured the evolution of a faster pace-of-life in savannah species that facilitated their persistence in seasonal habitats.

To mate, or not to mate: The evolution of reproductive diapause facilitates insect radiation into African savannahs in the Late Miocene.

Many tropical environments experience cyclical seasonal changes, frequently with pronounced wet and dry seasons, leading to a highly uneven temporal distribution of resources. Short-lived animals inhabiting such environments often show season-specific adaptations to cope with alternating selection pressures. African Bicyclus butterflies show strong seasonal polyphenism in a suite of phenotypic and life-history traits, and their adults are thought to undergo reproductive diapause associated with the lack of available larval host plants during the dry season. Using 3 years of longitudinal field data for three species in Malawi, dissections demonstrated that one forest species reproduces continuously, whereas two savannah species undergo reproductive diapause in the dry season, either with or without pre-diapause mating. Using additional data from field-collected and museum samples, we then documented the same three mating strategies for a further 37 species. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the ancestral state was a non-diapausing forest species, and that habitat preference and mating strategy evolved in a correlated fashion. Bicyclus butterflies underwent rapid diversification during the Late Miocene, coinciding with expansions into more open savannah habitat. We conclude that the ability to undergo reproductive diapause was a key trait that facilitated colonization and eventual radiation into savannahs in the Late Miocene.