The prevalence and mortality risks of PRISm and COPD in the United States from NHANES 2007-2012.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. METHODS: We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007-2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3-4) and PRISm using FEV1/FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. RESULTS: Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007-2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9-2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0-5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7-2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7-6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007-2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

Air Pollution Exposure and Interstitial Lung Features in SPIROMICS Participants with COPD.

RATIONALE: It is unknown whether air pollution is associated with radiographic features of interstitial lung disease in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). OBJECTIVES: To determine whether air pollution increases prevalence of interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) or percent high-attenuation area (HAA) on computed tomography (CT) in individuals with a heavy smoking history and COPD. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study), focused on current or former smokers with COPD. 10-year exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) prior to enrollment CTs (completed between 2010-2015) were estimated with validated spatiotemporal models at residential addresses. We applied adjusted multivariable modified Poisson regression and linear regression to investigate associations between pollution exposure and relative risk of ILA or increased percent HAA (between -600 and -250 Hounsfield units) respectively. We assessed for effect modification by MUC5B-promoter polymorphism (GT/TT vs GG at rs3705950), smoking status, sex, and percent emphysema. RESULTS: Among 1272 participants with COPD assessed for HAA, 424 were current smokers, 249 were carriers of the variant MUC5B allele (GT/TT). 519 participants were assessed for ILA. We found no association between pollution exposure and ILA or HAA. Associations between pollutant exposures and risk of ILA were modified by the presence of MUC5B polymorphism (p-value interaction term for NOx = 0.04 and PM2.5 = 0.05) and smoking status (p-value interaction term for NOx = 0.05, NO2 = 0.01, and O3 = 0.05). With higher exposure to NOx and PM2.5, MUC5B variant carriers had increased risk of ILA (Relative Risk [RR] per 26ppb NOx 2.41; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.97 to 6.0) and RR per 4 µg·m-3 PM2.5 1.43; 95% CI 0.93 to 2.2). With higher exposure to NO2, former smokers had increased risk of ILA (RR per 10ppb 1.64; 95% CI 1.0 to 2.7). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with interstitial features on CT in this population of heavy smokers with COPD. MUC5B modified the association between pollution and ILA, suggesting that gene-environment interactions may influence prevalence of interstitial lung features in COPD.

Association of Acute Respiratory Disease Events with Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression at CT in Individuals with a History of Smoking.

Background Acute respiratory disease (ARD) events are often thought to be airway-disease related, but some may be related to quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIAs), which are subtle parenchymal abnormalities on CT scans associated with morbidity and mortality in individuals with a smoking history. Purpose To determine whether QIA progression at CT is associated with ARD and severe ARD events in individuals with a history of smoking. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of a prospective study included individuals with a 10 pack-years or greater smoking history recruited from multiple centers between November 2007 and July 2017. QIA progression was assessed between baseline (visit 1) and 5-year follow-up (visit 2) chest CT scans. Episodes of ARD were defined as increased cough or dyspnea lasting 48 hours and requiring antibiotics or corticosteroids, whereas severe ARD episodes were those requiring an emergency room visit or hospitalization. Episodes were recorded via questionnaires completed every 3 to 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models adjusted for comorbidities (eg, emphysema, small airway disease) were used to assess the association between QIA progression and episodes between visits 1 and 2 (intercurrent) and after visit 2 (subsequent). Results A total of 3972 participants (mean age at baseline, 60.7 years ± 8.6 [SD]; 2120 [53.4%] women) were included. Annual percentage QIA progression was associated with increased odds of one or more intercurrent (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 [95% CI: 1.06, 1.56]; P = .01) and subsequent (OR = 1.26 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.52]; P = .02) severe ARD events. Participants in the highest quartile of QIA progression (≥1.2%) had more frequent intercurrent ARD (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.86]; P = .003) and severe ARD (IRR = 1.79 [95% CI: 1.18, 2.73]; P = .006) events than those in the lowest quartile (≤-1.7%). Conclusion QIA progression was independently associated with higher odds of severe ARD events during and after radiographic progression, with higher frequency of intercurrent severe events in those with faster progression. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Implications of Cardiopulmonary Risk for the Management of COPD: A Narrative Review.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitutes a major global health burden and is the third leading cause of death worldwide. A high proportion of patients with COPD have cardiovascular disease, but there is also evidence that COPD is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease. Patients with COPD frequently die of respiratory and cardiovascular causes, yet the identification and management of cardiopulmonary risk remain suboptimal owing to limited awareness and clinical intervention. Acute exacerbations punctuate the progression of COPD in many patients, reducing lung function and increasing the risk of subsequent exacerbations and cardiovascular events that may lead to early death. This narrative review defines and summarises the principles of COPD-associated cardiopulmonary risk, and examines respiratory interventions currently available to modify this risk, as well as providing expert opinion on future approaches to addressing cardiopulmonary risk.

Association between CFTR modulators and changes in iron deficiency markers in cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is a common extrapulmonary manifestation in cystic fibrosis (CF). CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator therapies, particularly highly-effective modulator therapy (HEMT), have drastically improved health status in a majority of people with CF. We hypothesize that CFTR modulator use is associated with improved markers of ID. METHODS: In a multicenter retrospective cohort study across 4 United States CF centers 2012-2022, the association between modulator therapies and ID laboratory outcomes was estimated using multivariable linear mixed effects models overall and by key subgroups. Summary statistics describe the prevalence and trends of ID, defined a priori as transferrin saturation (TSAT) <20 % or serum iron <60 µg/dL (<10.7 µmol/L). RESULTS: A total of 568 patients with 2571 person-years of follow-up were included in analyses. Compared to off modulator therapy, HEMT was associated with +8.4 % TSAT (95 % confidence interval [CI], +6.3-10.6 %; p < 0.0001) and +34.4 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +26.7-42.1 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) overall; +5.4 % TSAT (95 % CI, +2.8-8.0 %; p = 0.0001) and +22.1 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +13.5-30.8 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) in females; and +11.4 % TSAT (95 % CI, +7.9-14.8 %; p < 0.0001) and +46.0 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +33.3-58.8 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) in males. Ferritin was not different in those taking modulator therapy relative to off modulator therapy. Hemoglobin was overall higher with use of modulator therapy. The prevalence of ID was high throughout the study period (32.8 % in those treated with HEMT). CONCLUSIONS: ID remains a prevalent comorbidity in CF, despite availability of HEMT. Modulator use, particularly of HEMT, is associated with improved markers for ID (TSAT, serum iron) and anemia (hemoglobin).

The Effect of Chronic Altitude Exposure on COPD Outcomes in the SPIROMICS Cohort.

RATIONALE: Individuals with COPD have airflow obstruction and maldistribution of ventilation. For those living at high altitude, any gas exchange abnormality is compounded by reduced partial pressures of inspired oxygen. OBJECTIVES: Does residence at higher-altitude exposure affect COPD outcomes, including lung function, imaging characteristics, symptoms, health status, functional exercise capacity, exacerbations, or mortality? METHODS: From the SPIROMICS cohort, we identified individuals with COPD living below 1,000 ft (305 m) elevation (n= 1,367) versus above 4,000 ft (1,219 m) elevation (n= 288). Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate associations of exposure to high altitude with COPD-related outcomes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Living at higher altitude was associated with reduced functional exercise capacity as defined by 6MWD (-32.3 m, (-55.7 to -28.6)). There were no differences in patient-reported outcomes as defined by symptoms (CAT, mMRC), or health status (SGRQ). Higher altitude was not associated with a different rate of FEV1 decline. Higher altitude was associated with lower odds of severe exacerbations (IRR 0.65, (0.46 to 0.90)). There were no differences in small airway disease, air trapping, or emphysema. In longitudinal analyses, higher altitude was associated with increased mortality (HR 1.25, (1.0 to 1.55)); however, this association was no longer significant when accounting for air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic altitude exposure is associated with reduced functional exercise capacity in individuals with COPD, but this did not translate into differences in symptoms or health status. Additionally, chronic high-altitude exposure did not affect progression of disease as defined by longitudinal changes in spirometry.

Vessel and Airway Characteristics in One-Year CT-defined Rapid Emphysema Progression: SPIROMICS.

Rationale: Rates of emphysema progression vary in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and the relationship with vascular and airway pathophysiology remain unclear. Objective: We sought to determine if indices of peripheral (segmental and beyond) pulmonary arterial (PA) dilation measured via computed tomography (CT) are associated with a 1-year index of emphysema (EI: %voxels<-950HU) progression. Methods: 599 GOLD 0-3 former and never-smokers were evaluated from the SubPopulations and InterMediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort: rapid-emphysema-progressors (RP, n=188; 1-year ΔEI>1%), non-progressors (NP, n=301; 1-year ΔEI±0.5%) and never-smokers (NS: N=110). Segmental PA cross-sectional areas were standardized to associated airway luminal areas (Segmental : Pulmonary Artery-to-Airway Ratio: PAARseg). Full inspiratory CT scan-derived total (arteries + veins) pulmonary vascular volume (TPVV) was compared to vessel volume with radius smaller than 0.75mm (SVV.75/TPVV). Airway-to-lung ratios (an index of dysanapsis and COPD risk) were compared to TPVV-lung-volume-ratios. Results: Compared with NP, RP exhibited significantly larger PAARseg (0.73±0.29 vs. 0.67±0.23; p=0.001), lower TPVV-to-lung-volume ratio (3.21%±0.42% vs. 3.48%±0.38%; p=5.0 x 10-12), lower airway-to-lung-volume ratio (0.031±0.003 vs. 0.034±0.004; p=6.1 x 10-13) and larger SVV.75/TPVV (37.91%±4.26% vs. 35.53±4.89; p=1.9 x 10-7). In adjusted analyses, a 1-SD increment in PAARseg was associated with a 98.4% higher rate of severe exacerbations (95%CI: 29 to 206%; p = 0.002) and 79.3% higher in odds of being in the rapid emphysema progression group (95%CI: 24% to 157%; p = 0.001). At year-2 followup, the CT-defined RP group demonstrated a significant decline in post-bronchodilator-FEV1% predicted. Conclusion: Rapid one-year progression of emphysema was associated with indices indicative of higher peripheral pulmonary vascular resistance and a possible role played by pulmonary vascular-airway dysanapsis.

Local heterogeneity of normal lung parenchyma and small airways disease are associated with COPD severity and progression.

BACKGROUND: Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. METHODS: PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n = 8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. RESULTS: Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (ß of 0.106, p < 0.001) and VfSAD (ß of 0.065, p = 0.004) were also independently associated with FEV1% predicted. The machine learning model using PRM topologies as inputs predicted FEV1 decline over five years with an AUC of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that V and χ of fSAD and Norm have independent value when associated with lung function and emphysema. In addition, we demonstrated that these readouts are predictive of spirometric decline when used as inputs in a ML model. Our topological PRM approach using PRMfSAD and PRMNorm may show promise as an early indicator of emphysema onset and COPD progression.

Can We Use Lung Function Thresholds and Respiratory Symptoms to Identify Pre-COPD? A Prospective, Population-based Cohort Study.

RATIONALE: The term 'pre-COPD' refers to individuals at high-risk of developing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) who do not meet conventional spirometric criteria for airflow obstruction. New approaches to identifying these individuals are needed, particularly in younger populations. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether lung function thresholds and respiratory symptoms can be used to identify individuals at-risk of developing COPD. METHODS: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study is a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (age 7). Respiratory symptoms, pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry, diffusing capacity and static lung volumes were measured on a subgroup at age 45, and incidence of COPD was assessed at age 53. For each lung function measure, z-scores were calculated using Global Lung Initiative references. The optimal threshold for best discrimination of COPD incidence was determined by the unweighted Youden Index. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 801 participants who did not have COPD at age 45, the optimal threshold for COPD incidence by age 53 was pre-BD FEV1/FVC z-score < -1.264, corresponding to the lowest 10th percentile. Those below this threshold had 36-fold increased risk of developing COPD over an eight-year follow-up period (RR 35.8, 95%CI 8.88 to 144), corresponding to a risk difference of +16.4% (95%CI 3.7-67.4). The sensitivity was 88% and specificity 87%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.79 and 0.14, respectively. Respiratory symptoms, post-BD spirometry, diffusing capacity and static lung volumes did not improve on the classification achieved by pre-BD FEV1/FVC alone. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the inclusion of pre-BD spirometry in the physiological definition of pre-COPD and indicate that pre-BD FEV1/FVC at the 10th percentile accurately identifies individuals at high-risk of developing COPD in community-based settings.

Loss of Airway Phylogenetic Diversity Is Associated with Clinical and Pathobiological Markers of Disease Development in COPD.

RATIONALE: The airway microbiome has the potential to shape COPD pathogenesis, but its relationship to outcomes in milder disease is unestablished. OBJECTIVES: Identify sputum microbiome characteristics associated with markers of COPD in participants of the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures of COPD Study (SPIROMICS). METHODS: Sputum DNA from 877 participants were analyzed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Relationships between baseline airway microbiota composition and clinical, radiographic and muco-inflammatory markers, including longitudinal lung function trajectory, were examined. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Participant data represented predominantly milder disease (GOLD 0-2: N=732/877). Phylogenetic diversity (range of different species within a sample) correlated positively with baseline lung function, declined with higher GOLD stage, and correlated negatively with symptom burden, radiographic markers of airway disease, and total mucin concentrations (p<0.001). In co-variate adjusted regression models, organisms robustly associated with better lung function included members of Alloprevotella, Oribacterium, and Veillonella. Conversely, lower lung function, greater symptoms and radiographic measures of small airway disease associated with enrichment in members of Streptococcus, Actinobacillus, Actinomyces, and other genera. Baseline sputum microbiota features also associated with lung function trajectory during SPIROMICS follow up (stable/improved, decliner, or rapid decliner). The 'stable/improved' group (slope of FEV1 regression ≥ 66th percentile) had higher bacterial diversity at baseline, associated with enrichment in Prevotella, Leptotrichia, and Neisseria. In contrast, the 'rapid decliner' group (FEV1 slope ≤ 33rd percentile) had significantly lower baseline diversity, associated with enrichment in Streptococcus. CONCLUSIONS: In SPIROMICS baseline airway microbiota features demonstrate divergent associations with better or worse COPD-related outcomes.

Lung Structure and Risk of Sleep Apnea in SPIROMICS.

Rationale: The SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) is a prospective cohort study that enrolled 2981 participants with the goal of identifying new chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) subgroups and intermediate markers of disease progression. Individuals with COPD and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) experience impaired quality of life and more frequent exacerbations. COPD severity also associates with computed tomography scan-based emphysema and alterations in airway dimensions. Objectives: The objective was to determine whether the combination of lung function and structure influences the risk of OSA among current and former smokers. Methods: Using 2 OSA risk scores, the Berlin Sleep Questionnaire (BSQ), and the DOISNORE50 (Diseases, Observed apnea, Insomnia, Snoring, Neck circumference > 18 inches, Obesity with body mass index [BMI] > 32, R = are you male, Excessive daytime sleepiness, 50 = age ≥ 50) (DIS), 1767 current and former smokers were evaluated for an association of lung structure and function with OSA risk. Measurements and Main Results: The study cohort's mean age was 63 years, BMI was 28 kg/m2, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was 74.8% predicted. The majority were male (55%), White (77%), former smokers (59%), and had COPD (63%). A high-risk OSA score was reported in 36% and 61% using DIS and BSQ respectively. There was a 9% increased odds of a high-risk DIS score (odds ratio [OR]=1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03-1.14) and nominally increased odds of a high-risk BSQ score for every 10% decrease in FEV1 %predicted (OR=1.04, 95%CI: 0.998-1.09). Lung function-OSA risk associations persisted after additionally adjusting for lung structure measurements (%emphysema, %air trapping, parametric response mapping for functional small airways disease, , mean segmental wall area, tracheal %wall area, dysanapsis) for DIS (OR=1.12, 95%CI:1.03-1.22) and BSQ (OR=1.09, 95%CI:1.01-1.18). Conclusions: Lower lung function independently associates with having high risk for OSA in current and former smokers. Lung structural elements, especially dysanapsis, functional small airways disease, and tracheal %wall area strengthened the effects on OSA risk.

Associations Between Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Exacerbation Risk in BLOCK-COPD.

Introduction: In 2019, the Beta-Blockers for the Prevention of Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease study (BLOCK-COPD) evaluated the effect of metoprolol on exacerbation risk and mortality in a COPD population without indications for beta-blocker use. We hypothesized that an imaging metric of coronary artery disease (CAD), the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, would predict exacerbation risk and identify a differential response to metoprolol treatment. Methods: The study population includes participants in the BLOCK-COPD study from multiple study sites. Participants underwent clinically indicated thoracic computed tomography (CT) scans ± 12 months from enrollment. The Weston scoring system quantified CAC. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models evaluated for associations between CAC and time to exacerbation. Results: Data is included for 109 participants. The mean CAC score was 5.1±3.7, and 92 participants (84%) had CAC scores greater than 0. Over a median (interquartile range) follow-up time of 350 (280 to 352) days, there were 61 mild exacerbations and 19 severe/very severe exacerbations. No associations were found between exacerbations of any severity and CAC>0 or total CAC. Associations were observed between total CAC and CAC>0 in the left circumflex (LCx) and time to exacerbation of any severity (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.39, confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.79, p=0.01) and (aHR=1.96, 95% CI: 1.04-3.70, p=0.04), respectively. Conclusions: CAD is a prevalent comorbidity in COPD accounting for significant mortality. Our study confirms the high prevalence of CAD using the CAC score; however, we did not discover an association between CAC and exacerbation risk. We did find novel associations between CAC in the LCx and exacerbation risk which warrant further investigation in larger cohorts.

Topologic Parametric Response Mapping Identifies Tissue Subtypes Associated with Emphysema Progression.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Small airways disease (SAD) and emphysema are significant components of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a heterogenous disease where predicting progression is difficult. SAD, a principal cause of airflow obstruction in mild COPD, has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) of chest computed tomography (CT) can help distinguish SAD from emphysema. Specifically, topologic PRM can define local patterns of both diseases to characterize how and in whom COPD progresses. We aimed to determine if distribution of CT-based PRM of functional SAD (fSAD) is associated with emphysema progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed paired inspiratory-expiratory chest CT scans at baseline and 5-year follow up in 1495 COPDGene subjects using topological analyses of PRM classifications. By spatially aligning temporal scans, we mapped local emphysema at year five to baseline lobar PRM-derived topological readouts. K-means clustering was applied to all observations. Subjects were subtyped based on predominant PRM cluster assignments and assessed using non-parametric statistical tests to determine differences in PRM values, pulmonary function metrics, and clinical measures. RESULTS: We identified distinct lobar imaging patterns and classified subjects into three radiologic subtypes: emphysema-dominant (ED), fSAD-dominant (FD), and fSAD-transition (FT: transition from healthy lung to fSAD). Relative to year five emphysema, FT showed rapid local emphysema progression (-57.5% ± 1.1) compared to FD (-49.9% ± 0.5) and ED (-33.1% ± 0.4). FT consisted primarily of at-risk subjects (roughly 60%) with normal spirometry. CONCLUSION: The FT subtype of COPD may allow earlier identification of individuals without spirometrically-defined COPD at-risk for developing emphysema.

Risk Factors for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations among Individuals without a History of Recent Exacerbations: A COPDGene Analysis.

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD) are detrimental events in the natural history of COPD, but the risk factors associated with future exacerbations in the absence of a history of recent exacerbations are not fully understood. Objectives: To identify risk factors for COPD exacerbations among participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) without a history of exacerbation in the previous year. Methods: We identified participants with a smoking history enrolled in COPDGene who had COPD (defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]/forced vital capacity < 0.70), no exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, and who completed at least one longitudinal follow-up questionnaire in the following 36 months. We used univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to identify risk factors associated with increased rates of exacerbation. Each risk factor's regression coefficient (ß) was rounded to the nearest 0.25 and incorporated into a graduated risk score. Results: Among the 1,528 participants with a smoking history and COPD enrolled in COPDGene without exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, 508 participants (33.2%) had at least one moderate or severe exacerbation in the 36 months studied. Gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden (as measured by Modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale and COPD Assessment Test), and lower FEV1% predicted were associated with an increased risk of exacerbation. Each 1-point increase in our graduated risk score was associated with a 25-30% increase in exacerbation rate in the 36 months studied. Conclusions: In patients with COPD without a recent history of exacerbations, gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden, and lower lung function are associated with increased risk of future exacerbation using a simple risk score that can be used in clinical practice.

Plasma metabolomics and quantitative interstitial abnormalities in ever-smokers.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) are an automated computed tomography (CT) finding of early parenchymal lung disease, associated with worse lung function, reduced exercise capacity, increased respiratory symptoms, and death. The metabolomic perturbations associated with QIA are not well known. We sought to identify plasma metabolites associated with QIA in smokers. We also sought to identify shared and differentiating metabolomics features between QIA and emphysema, another smoking-related advanced radiographic abnormality. METHODS: In 928 former and current smokers in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort, we measured QIA and emphysema using an automated local density histogram method and generated metabolite profiles from plasma samples using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (Metabolon). We assessed the associations between metabolite levels and QIA using multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, and inhaled corticosteroid use, at a Benjamini-Hochberg False Discovery Rate p-value of ≤ 0.05. Using multinomial regression models adjusted for these covariates, we assessed the associations between metabolite levels and the following CT phenotypes: QIA-predominant, emphysema-predominant, combined-predominant, and neither- predominant. Pathway enrichment analyses were performed using MetaboAnalyst. RESULTS: We found 85 metabolites significantly associated with QIA, with overrepresentation of the nicotinate and nicotinamide, histidine, starch and sucrose, pyrimidine, phosphatidylcholine, lysophospholipid, and sphingomyelin pathways. These included metabolites involved in inflammation and immune response, extracellular matrix remodeling, surfactant, and muscle cachexia. There were 75 metabolites significantly different between QIA-predominant and emphysema-predominant phenotypes, with overrepresentation of the phosphatidylethanolamine, nicotinate and nicotinamide, aminoacyl-tRNA, arginine, proline, alanine, aspartate, and glutamate pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic correlates may lend insight to the biologic perturbations and pathways that underlie clinically meaningful quantitative CT measurements like QIA in smokers.