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AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Metabolic risk factors and plasma biomarkers for diabetes have previously been shown to change prior to a clinical diabetes diagnosis. However, these markers only cover a small subset of molecular biomarkers linked to the disease. In this study, we aimed to profile a more comprehensive set of molecular biomarkers and explore their temporal association with incident diabetes. METHODS: We performed a targeted analysis of 54 proteins and 171 metabolites and lipoprotein particles measured in three sequential samples spanning up to 11 years of follow-up in 324 individuals with incident diabetes and 359 individuals without diabetes in the Danish Blood Donor Study (DBDS) matched for sex and birth year distribution. We used linear mixed-effects models to identify temporal changes before a diabetes diagnosis, either for any incident diabetes diagnosis or for type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus diagnoses specifically. We further performed linear and non-linear feature selection, adding 28 polygenic risk scores to the biomarker pool. We tested the time-to-event prediction gain of the biomarkers with the highest variable importance, compared with selected clinical covariates and plasma glucose. RESULTS: We identified two proteins and 16 metabolites and lipoprotein particles whose levels changed temporally before diabetes diagnosis and for which the estimated marginal means were significant after FDR adjustment. Sixteen of these have not previously been described. Additionally, 75 biomarkers were consistently higher or lower in the years before a diabetes diagnosis. We identified a single temporal biomarker for type 1 diabetes, IL-17A/F, a cytokine that is associated with multiple other autoimmune diseases. Inclusion of 12 biomarkers improved the 10-year prediction of a diabetes diagnosis (i.e. the area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.79 to 0.84), compared with clinical information and plasma glucose alone. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Systemic molecular changes manifest in plasma several years before a diabetes diagnosis. A particular subset of biomarkers shows distinct, time-dependent patterns, offering potential as predictive markers for diabetes onset. Notably, these biomarkers show shared and distinct patterns between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes. After independent replication, our findings may be used to develop new clinical prediction models.
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Rates of evolution get smaller when they are measured over longer time intervals. As first shown by Gingerich, rates of morphological change measured from fossil time series show a robust minus-one scaling with time span, implying that evolutionary changes are just as large when measured over a hundred years as when measured over a hundred-thousand years. On even longer time scales, however, the scaling shifts toward a minus-half exponent consistent with evolution behaving as Brownian motion, as commonly observed in phylogenetic comparative studies. Here, I discuss how such scaling patterns arise, and I derive the patterns expected from standard stochastic models of evolution. I argue that observed shifts cannot be easily explained by simple univariate models, but require shifts in mode of evolution as time scale is changing. To illustrate this idea, I present a hypothesis about three distinct, but connected, modes of evolution. I analyze the scaling patterns predicted from this, and use the results to discuss how rates of evolution should be measured and interpreted. I argue that distinct modes of evolution at different time scales act to decouple micro- and macroevolution, and criticize various attempts at extrapolating from one to the other.
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The informed use of scales and units in evolutionary quantitative genetics is often neglected, and naïve standardizations can cause misinterpretations of empirical results. A potentially influential example of such neglect can be found in the recent book by Arnold (2023. Evolutionary quantitative genetics. Oxford University Press). There, Arnold championed the use of heritability over mean-scaled genetic variance as a measure of evolutionary potential arguing that mean-scaled genetic variances are correlated with trait means while heritabilities are not. Here, we show that Arnold's empirical result is an artifact of ignoring the units in which traits are measured. More importantly, Arnold's argument mistakenly assumes that the goal of mean scaling is to remove the relationship between mean and variance. In our view, the purpose of mean scaling is to put traits with different units on a common scale that makes evolutionary changes, or their potential, readily interpretable and comparable in terms of proportions of the mean.
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Evolução Biológica , Modelos Genéticos , Variação Genética , Característica Quantitativa HerdávelRESUMO
Heritable variation is a prerequisite for evolutionary change, but the relevance of genetic constraints on macroevolutionary timescales is debated. By using two datasets on fossil and contemporary taxa, we show that evolutionary divergence among populations, and to a lesser extent among species, increases with microevolutionary evolvability. We evaluate and reject several hypotheses to explain this relationship and propose that an effect of evolvability on population and species divergence can be explained by the influence of genetic constraints on the ability of populations to track rapid, stationary environmental fluctuations.
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Evolução Biológica , Fósseis , Seleção Genética , Animais , Variação Genética , Conjuntos de Dados como AssuntoRESUMO
Epistasis is often portrayed as unimportant in evolution. While random patterns of epistasis may have limited effects on the response to selection, systematic directional epistasis can have substantial effects on evolutionary dynamics. Directional epistasis occurs when allele substitutions that change a trait also modify the effects of allele substitution at other loci in a systematic direction. In this case, trait evolution may induce correlated changes in allelic effects and additive genetic variance (evolvability) that modify further evolution. Although theory thus suggests a potentially important role for directional epistasis in evolution, we still lack empirical evidence about its prevalence and magnitude. Using a new framework to estimate systematic patterns of epistasis from line-crosses experiments, we quantify its effects on 197 size-related traits from diverging natural populations in 24 animal and 17 plant species. We show that directional epistasis is common and tends to become stronger with increasing morphological divergence. In animals, most traits displayed negative directionality toward larger size, suggesting that epistatic constraints reducing evolvability toward larger size. Dominance was also common but did not systematically alter the effects of epistasis.
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Epistasia Genética , Animais , Plantas/genética , Plantas/anatomia & histologia , Evolução Biológica , Tamanho CorporalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Accurate blood type data are essential for blood bank management, but due to costs, few of 43 blood group systems are routinely determined in Danish blood banks. However, a more comprehensive dataset of blood types is useful in scenarios such as rare blood type allocation. We aimed to investigate the viability and accuracy of predicting blood types by leveraging an existing dataset of imputed genotypes for two cohorts of approximately 90,000 each (Danish Blood Donor Study and Copenhagen Biobank) and present a more comprehensive overview of blood types for our Danish donor cohort. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Blood types were predicted from genome array data using known variant determinants. Prediction accuracy was confirmed by comparing with preexisting serological blood types. The Vel blood group was used to test the viability of using genetic prediction to narrow down the list of candidate donors with rare blood types. RESULTS: Predicted phenotypes showed a high balanced accuracy >99.5% in most cases: A, B, C/c, Coa /Cob , Doa /Dob , E/e, Jka /Jkb , Kna /Knb , Kpa /Kpb , M/N, S/s, Sda , Se, and Yta /Ytb , while some performed slightly worse: Fya /Fyb , K/k, Lua /Lub , and Vel ~99%-98% and CW and P1 ~96%. Genetic prediction identified 70 potential Vel negatives in our cohort, 64 of whom were confirmed correct using polymerase chain reaction (negative predictive value: 91.5%). DISCUSSION: High genetic prediction accuracy in most blood groups demonstrated the viability of generating blood types using preexisting genotype data at no cost and successfully narrowed the pool of potential individuals with the rare Vel-negative phenotype from 180,000 to 70.
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Antígenos de Grupos Sanguíneos , Humanos , Antígenos de Grupos Sanguíneos/genética , Genótipo , Fenótipo , Doadores de Sangue , Reação em Cadeia da PolimeraseRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Allele counts of sequence variants obtained by whole genome sequencing (WGS) often play a central role in interpreting the results of genetic and genomic research. However, such variant counts are not readily available for individuals in the Danish population. Here, we present a dataset with allele counts for sequence variants (single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and indels) identified from WGS of 8,671 (5,418 females) individuals from the Danish population. The data resource is based on WGS data from three independent research projects aimed at assessing genetic risk factors for cardiovascular, psychiatric, and headache disorders. To enable the sharing of information on sequence variation in Danish individuals, we created summarized statistics on allele counts from anonymized data and made them available through the European Genome-phenome Archive (EGA, https://identifiers.org/ega. DATASET: EGAD00001009756 ) and in a dedicated browser, DanMAC5 (available at www.danmac5.dk ). The summary level data and the DanMAC5 browser provide insight into the allelic spectrum of sequence variants segregating in the Danish population, which is important in variant interpretation. DATA DESCRIPTION: Three WGS datasets with an average coverage of 30x were processed independently using the same quality control pipeline. Subsequently, we summarized, filtered, and merged allele counts to create a high-quality summary level dataset of sequence variants.
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Genoma , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Feminino , Humanos , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma/métodos , Genômica , DinamarcaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To examine the level of loneliness experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark and to identify associated behavioural patterns and demographic factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: Includes Danish active and former blood donors. PARTICIPANTS: A questionnaire was sent to 124 307 active and former blood donors, of these a total of 50 968 participants completed the study questionnaire (response rate=41%). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Subjective experience of loneliness was measured using the 3-item University of California, Los Angeles Loneliness Scale (UCLA-3). Besides the UCLA-3, the respondents answered items on sociodemographic and economic characteristics, items on precautionary measures taken to avoid COVID-19 infection as well as on COVID-19 anxiety. RESULTS: The participants indicated their experienced level of loneliness both before and during the pandemic. Comparing the two reports yielded a mean increase in loneliness scores of 14.1% (p<0.001). Exploratory factor analysis identified the factor well-being, which comprised three questionnaire items related to emotional heath, physical health and happiness. A high score on the factor well-being was associated with reduced levels of loneliness (coefficient=-0.47, 95% CI -0.49 to -0.46)). Furthermore, women were more likely than men to have experienced increased levels of loneliness during the pandemic (coefficient=0.27, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.29). Furthermore, a negative correlation between higher age and change in loneliness score was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings document an increase in the level of experienced loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly affecting individuals with low well-being, women and younger individuals.
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COVID-19 , Solidão , Masculino , Humanos , Adulto , Feminino , Solidão/psicologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Pandemias , Depressão/psicologiaRESUMO
Models based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have become standard for the comparative study of adaptation. Cooper et al. (2016) have cast doubt on this practice by claiming statistical problems with fitting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models to comparative data. Specifically, they claim that statistical tests of Brownian motion may have too high Type I error rates and that such error rates are exacerbated by measurement error. In this note, we argue that these results have little relevance to the estimation of adaptation with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models for three reasons. First, we point out that Cooper et al. (2016) did not consider the detection of distinct optima (e.g. for different environments), and therefore did not evaluate the standard test for adaptation. Second, we show that consideration of parameter estimates, and not just statistical significance, will usually lead to correct inferences about evolutionary dynamics. Third, we show that bias due to measurement error can be corrected for by standard methods. We conclude that Cooper et al. (2016) have not identified any statistical problems specific to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, and that their cautions against their use in comparative analyses are unfounded and misleading. [adaptation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, phylogenetic comparative method.].
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Adaptação Fisiológica , Evolução Biológica , FilogeniaRESUMO
We investigate a 2,000-year genetic transect through Scandinavia spanning the Iron Age to the present, based on 48 new and 249 published ancient genomes and genotypes from 16,638 modern individuals. We find regional variation in the timing and magnitude of gene flow from three sources: the eastern Baltic, the British-Irish Isles, and southern Europe. British-Irish ancestry was widespread in Scandinavia from the Viking period, whereas eastern Baltic ancestry is more localized to Gotland and central Sweden. In some regions, a drop in current levels of external ancestry suggests that ancient immigrants contributed proportionately less to the modern Scandinavian gene pool than indicated by the ancestry of genomes from the Viking and Medieval periods. Finally, we show that a north-south genetic cline that characterizes modern Scandinavians is mainly due to the differential levels of Uralic ancestry and that this cline existed in the Viking Age and possibly earlier.
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Genoma Humano , Humanos , Europa (Continente) , Variação Genética , Países Escandinavos e Nórdicos , Reino Unido , População Branca/genética , População Branca/história , Migração HumanaRESUMO
Understanding the causes and limits of population divergence in phenotypic traits is a fundamental aim of evolutionary biology, with the potential to yield predictions of adaptation to environmental change. Reciprocal transplant experiments and the evaluation of optimality models suggest that local adaptation is common but not universal, and some studies suggest that trait divergence is highly constrained by genetic variances and covariances of complex phenotypes. We analyze a large database of population divergence in plants and evaluate whether evolutionary divergence scales positively with standing genetic variation within populations (evolvability), as expected if genetic constraints are evolutionarily important. We further evaluate differences in divergence and evolvability-divergence relationships between reproductive and vegetative traits and between selfing, mixed-mating, and outcrossing species, as these factors are expected to influence both patterns of selection and evolutionary potentials. Evolutionary divergence scaled positively with evolvability. Furthermore, trait divergence was greater for vegetative traits than for floral (reproductive) traits, but largely independent of the mating system. Jointly, these factors explained ~40% of the variance in evolutionary divergence. The consistency of the evolvability-divergence relationships across diverse species suggests substantial predictability of trait divergence. The results are also consistent with genetic constraints playing a role in evolutionary divergence.
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Adaptação Fisiológica , Evolução Biológica , Reprodução , Fenótipo , Aclimatação , Plantas/genética , Variação Genética , Flores/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported Blood type O to confer a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, while secretor status and other blood groups have been suspected to have a similar effect as well. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: To determine whether any other blood groups influence testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 severity, or prolonged COVID-19, we used a large cohort of 650,156 Danish blood donors with varying available data for secretor status and blood groups ABO, Rh, Colton, Duffy, Diego, Dombrock, Kell, Kidd, Knops, Lewis, Lutheran, MNS, P1PK, Vel, and Yt. Of these, 36,068 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 whereas 614,088 tested negative between 2020-02-17 and 2021-08-04. Associations between infection and blood groups were assessed using logistic regression models with sex and age as covariates. RESULTS: The Lewis blood group antigen Lea displayed strongly reduced SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility OR 0.85 CI[0.79-0.93] p < .001. Compared to blood type O, the blood types B, A, and AB were found more susceptible toward infection with ORs 1.1 CI[1.06-1.14] p < .001, 1.17 CI[1.14-1.2] p < .001, and 1.2 CI[1.14-1.26] p < .001, respectively. No susceptibility associations were found for the other 13 blood groups investigated. There was no association between any blood groups and COVID-19 hospitalization or long COVID-19. No secretor status associations were found. DISCUSSION: This study uncovers a new association to reduced SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility for Lewis type Lea and confirms the previous link to blood group O. The new association to Lea could be explained by a link between mucosal microbiome and SARS-CoV-2.
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Antígenos de Grupos Sanguíneos , COVID-19 , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda , Humanos , Sistema ABO de Grupos Sanguíneos , Antígenos de Grupos Sanguíneos/genética , Estudos de Coortes , COVID-19/sangue , COVID-19/genética , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda/sangue , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda/genética , SARS-CoV-2 , Predisposição Genética para DoençaRESUMO
Increased brain size in humans and other primates is hypothesized to confer cognitive benefits but brings costs associated with growing and maintaining energetically expensive neural tissue. Previous studies have argued that changes in either diet or levels of sociality led to shifts in brain size, but results were equivocal. Here we test these hypotheses using phylogenetic comparative methods designed to jointly account for and estimate the effects of adaptation and phylogeny. Using the largest current sample of primate brain and body sizes with observation error, complemented by newly compiled diet and sociality data, we show that both diet and sociality have influenced the evolution of brain size. Shifting from simple to more complex levels of sociality resulted in relatively larger brains, while shifting to a more folivorous diet led to relatively smaller brains. While our results support the role of sociality, they modify a range of ecological hypotheses centered on the importance of frugivory, and instead indicate that digestive costs associated with increased folivory may have resulted in relatively smaller brains. [adaptation; allometry; bayou; evolutionary trend; energetic constraints; phylogenetic comparative methods; primate brain size; Slouch; social-brain hypothesis.].
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Primatas , Comportamento Social , Animais , Humanos , Filogenia , Dieta , Encéfalo , Evolução BiológicaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Investigations of migraine among childhood cancer survivors have predominantly relied on self-reported information and hospital discharge diagnoses. Alone, both approaches are liable to bias. We used Danish nationwide registers to obtain data on both prescriptions of acute migraine medications (antimigraines) and hospital discharge diagnoses of migraine to assess the relative risk of migraine across a wider spectrum of migraine presentations than previously studied. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort of 7771 individuals with childhood cancer diagnosed in the period from Jan 1st, 1978 to Dec 31st, 2017, for risk of prescription antimigraine initiation and for risk of hospitalization due to migraine. Rates of hospitalization were assessed for the entire follow-up period whereas rates of antimigraine initiations were assessed in the period from Jan 1st, 1997, to Dec 31st, 2017. Relative to the general population without childhood cancer, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each outcome. RESULTS: Individuals exposed to childhood cancer were at increased risk of antimigraine initiation (SIR of 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11-1.38) and of migraine hospitalization (SIR of 2.44, 95% CI: 1.87-3.12) from the day of their cancer diagnosis and up to 40 years after. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals diagnosed with childhood cancer have a higher risk of migraine of varying presentations, in addition to migraine resulting in hospitalization as previously reported. This potentially preventable problem warrants clinical attention.
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We assessed the frequency of pediatric monogenic epilepsies and precision therapies at a tertiary epilepsy center. We analyzed medical records of children, born in 2006-2011 and followed at the Danish Epilepsy Center from January to December 2015; 357 patients were identified, of whom 27 without epilepsy and 35 with acquired brain damage were excluded. Of the remaining 295 children, 188 were consented for study inclusion and genetic testing. At inclusion, 86/188 had a preexisting genetic diagnosis and did not undergo further genetic testing. The 102 genetically unsolved patients underwent WES, which identified a (likely) pathogenic variant in eight patients and a highly relevant variant of unknown significance (VUS) in seven additional patients. Single nucleotide polymorphism array was performed in the remaining 87 patients and revealed no (likely) pathogenic copy number variants (CNVs). Patients with a genetic diagnosis had a significantly lower median age at seizure onset and more often had febrile seizures, status epilepticus, or neurodevelopmental impairment compared to those who remained genetically unsolved. Most common epilepsies were focal or multifocal epilepsies and developmental and epileptic encephalopathies (DDEs). Fifty-three patients, with a putative genetic diagnosis, were potentially eligible for precision therapy approaches. Indeed, genetic diagnosis enabled treatment adjustment in 32/53 (60%); 30/32 (93%) patients experienced at least a 50% reduction in seizure burden while only 4/32 (12.5%) became seizure-free. In summary, a genetic diagnosis was achieved in approximately 50% of patients with non-acquired epilepsy enabling precision therapy approaches in half of the patients, a strategy that results in > 50% reduction in seizure burden, in the majority of the treated patients.
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Epilepsia , Humanos , Criança , Adolescente , Epilepsia/diagnóstico , Epilepsia/genética , Testes Genéticos/métodosRESUMO
Familial clustering of the skin disease primary hyperhidrosis suggests a genetic component to the disease. The human leucocyte antigen (HLA) is implicated in a range of diseases, including many comorbidities to hyperhidrosis. No study has investigated whether the HLA genes are involved in the pathogenesis of hyperhidrosis. We, therefore, compared HLA alleles in individuals with and without hyperhidrosis in this study of 65 000 blood donors. In this retrospective cohort study, we retrieved information on individuals with and without hyperhidrosis using self-reported questionnaires, the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish National Prescription Registry on participants recruited to the Danish Blood Donor Study between 2010 and 2019. Association tests using logistic regression were conducted for each HLA allele corrected for sex, age, body mass index, smoking and principal components. Overall, 145 of 65 795 (0.2%) participants had hospital diagnosed hyperhidrosis. Similarly, 1379 of 15 530 (8.9%) participants had moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis, of whom 447 (2.9%) had severe self-reported hyperhidrosis. Altogether, 28 participants had both hospital diagnosed and moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis. Severe self-reported hyperhidrosis was associated with HLA-A*80:01 (adjusted odds ratio 26.97; 95% confidence interval 5.32-136.70; n = 7; P < .001). Moderate-severe self-reported hyperhidrosis and hospital diagnosed hyperhidrosis were not associated with any HLA. The association between hyperhidrosis and HLA-A*80:01 was based on a very small number of cases and not replicated in other patient subsets, and therefore likely a chance finding. Thus, this study suggests that genes other than the HLA are involved in the pathogenesis of hyperhidrosis.
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Doadores de Sangue , Hiperidrose , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Antígenos HLA/genética , Antígenos HLA-A , Antígenos de Histocompatibilidade Classe I , Antígenos de Histocompatibilidade Classe II , Humanos , Hiperidrose/genética , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Measuring water currents in natural waters is limited by the cost of sensors. Standard sonar-based acoustic current Doppler profilers (ADCPs) are high cost, about $10-20 K per unit. Tilt current meters (TCMs) are much cheaper. They consist of a bottom-mounted subsurface float equipped with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and data center that records the float's motion and attitude as a time series. The flow speed is measured by calculating the tilt angle of the float in response to the current. However, tilt-based measurements require the float system to be carefully engineered and its physical response optimized for good results. Even so, high-frequency flow-induced vibrations often dominate the motion and must be averaged and filtered out of the data and discarded. This represents the loss of potentially valuable information, but decoding the high-frequency components for such useful data is difficult. These experiments explored using an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to extract the ambient water current speed from that high-frequency data alone, after the displacement information was filtered out. The methods were informed by the ANN designs and data augmentation techniques used by neurologists to observe the tremors and other motions exhibited by patients experiencing symptoms of Parkinson's disease. Once the model was trained using carefully selected training and validation sets to prevent overfitting, the results of evaluating previously unseen data by the model are clear and promising. Water current speed was accurately calculated from the high-frequency components of the motion sensor data and agreed with corresponding current speeds measured by established methods. This novel approach could facilitate new sensor system designs that can be empirically or self-calibrated more efficiently and have a lower barrier to application than those currently available.
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Monitoramento Ambiental , Vibração , Humanos , Redes Neurais de ComputaçãoRESUMO
Febrile seizures represent the most common type of pathological brain activity in young children and are influenced by genetic, environmental and developmental factors. In a minority of cases, febrile seizures precede later development of epilepsy. We conducted a genome-wide association study of febrile seizures in 7635 cases and 83 966 controls identifying and replicating seven new loci, all with P < 5 × 10-10. Variants at two loci were functionally related to altered expression of the fever response genes PTGER3 and IL10, and four other loci harboured genes (BSN, ERC2, GABRG2, HERC1) influencing neuronal excitability by regulating neurotransmitter release and binding, vesicular transport or membrane trafficking at the synapse. Four previously reported loci (SCN1A, SCN2A, ANO3 and 12q21.33) were all confirmed. Collectively, the seven novel and four previously reported loci explained 2.8% of the variance in liability to febrile seizures, and the single nucleotide polymorphism heritability based on all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms was 10.8%. GABRG2, SCN1A and SCN2A are well-established epilepsy genes and, overall, we found positive genetic correlations with epilepsies (rg = 0.39, P = 1.68 × 10-4). Further, we found that higher polygenic risk scores for febrile seizures were associated with epilepsy and with history of hospital admission for febrile seizures. Finally, we found that polygenic risk of febrile seizures was lower in febrile seizure patients with neuropsychiatric disease compared to febrile seizure patients in a general population sample. In conclusion, this largest genetic investigation of febrile seizures to date implicates central fever response genes as well as genes affecting neuronal excitability, including several known epilepsy genes. Further functional and genetic studies based on these findings will provide important insights into the complex pathophysiological processes of seizures with and without fever.