Developing a risk stratification model for predicting future health care use in asthmatic children.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have stratified pediatric asthma patients for risk of future exacerbation and/or health care use, but most incorporate multiple clinical parameters. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether historical acute care visits (ACVs) alone could predict risk of future health care use. METHODS: Children seen for asthma in an outpatient visit during a 3-year period were identified. The number of ACVs in the 12 months before and after the outpatient visit was determined. Logistic regression models were used to determine the odds of a future ACV. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and insurance status. RESULTS: Of 28,047 outpatient visits, 21,099 (75.2%) had no historical ACVs. The probability of a future ACV increased from 30% with one historical ACV to 87% with 5 or more historical ACVs. Outpatient visits with one historical ACV had significantly higher odds of a future ACV compared with those with no historical ACVs (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.14-4.12; P < .001). The OR increased with each additional historical ACV to an adjusted OR of 58.71 (95% CI, 24.34-141.61; P < .001) with 5 or more historical ACVs. Outpatient visits with 5 or more historical ACVs represented only 1.1% of the study sample but accounted for a higher mean number of future ACVs. CONCLUSION: The historical count of ACVs was predictive of future ACVs. A significant increase in the probability of future ACVs was observed with each additional historical visit, effectively stratifying risk by the historical visit count. Notably, a small group of patients accounted for a disproportionate number of future ACVs.

Office-based exhaled nitric oxide measurement in children 4 years of age and older.

BACKGROUND: Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) is increasingly being used in the office-based management of asthma, but data in children are limited. OBJECTIVES: To report FENO values in 4- to 7-year-old children with suspected asthma and characterize their relation to clinical variables and describe the relation among FENO levels, age, and sex in 4- to 18-year-old children with suspected asthma. METHODS: Retrospective data in 4- to 18-year-old children (n = 825) who underwent FENO testing using the NIOX MINO device were collected and analyzed. Chart reviews were performed for the 4- to 7-year-old children (n = 75). RESULTS: FENO values ranged from less than or equal to 5 to 89 ppb in 75 4- to 7-year-old children and less than or equal to 5 to 300 ppb in 750 > 7 to 18-year-old children. Approximately one tenth of 4- to 7-year-old children and one third of > 7 to 18-year-old children had FENO values indicative of eosinophilic/allergic inflammation (>35 ppb). In regression analysis of the 4- to 7-year-old children, increasing age (P = .03) and asthma severity (P = .01) were associated with higher FENO levels. Atopic dermatitis was significantly associated (P = .03), whereas allergic rhinitis was marginally associated (P = .06), with higher FENO levels. Inhaled corticosteroid use was associated with lower FENO levels (P = .02). CONCLUSION: This study characterizes the largest cohort of 4- to 7-year-old children to undergo FENO testing in ambulatory asthma management. Correlations between FENO levels and clinical variables were consistent with established findings in older children. This preliminary real-world study suggests that FENO assessment may be feasible and useful in the office-based asthma management of children as young as 4 years.