A mathematical-adapted model to analyze the characteristics for the mortality of COVID-19.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China, has led to the rapid development of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. COVID-19 represents a fatal disease with a great global public health importance. This study aims to develop a three-parameter Weibull mathematical model using continuous functions to represent discrete COVID-19 data. Subsequently, the model was applied to quantitatively analyze the characteristics for the mortality of COVID-19, including the age, sex, the length of symptom time to hospitalization time (SH), hospitalization date to death time (HD) and symptom time to death time time (SD) and others. A three-parameter mathematical model was developed by combining the reported cases in the Data Repository from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and applied to estimate and analyze the characteristics for mortality of COVID-19. We found that the scale parameters of males and females were 5.85 and 5.45, respectively. Probability density functions in both males and females were negative skewness. 5% of male patients died under the age of 43.28 (44.37 for females), 50% died under 69.55 (73.25 for females), and 95% died under 86.59 (92.78 for females). The peak age of male death was 67.45 years, while that of female death was 71.10 years. The peak and median values of SH, HD and SD in male death were correspondingly 1.17, 5.18 and 10.30 days, and 4.29, 11.36 and 16.33 days, while those in female death were 1.19, 5.80 and 12.08 days, and 4.60, 12.44 and 17.67 days, respectively. The peak age of probability density in male and female deaths was 69.55 and 73.25 years, while the high point age of their mortality risk was 77.51 and 81.73 years, respectively. The mathematical model can fit and simulate the impact of various factors on IFR. From the simulation results of the model, we can intuitively find the IFR, peak age, average age and other information of each age. In terms of time factors, the mortality rate of the most susceptible population is not the highest, and the distribution of male patients is different from the distribution of females. This means that Self-protection and self-recovery in females against SARS-CoV-2 virus might be better than those of males. Males were more likely to be infected, more likely to be admitted to the ICU and more likely to die of COVID-19. Moreover, the infection fatality ration (IFR) of COVID-19 population was intrinsically linked to the infection age. Public health measures to protect vulnerable sex and age groups might be a simple and effective way to reduce IFR.

miR-219 regulates liver cancer stem cell expansion via E-cadherin pathway.

Liver cancer stem cells contribute to tumorigenesis, progression, recurrence and drug resistance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the underlying mechanism for the propagation of liverCSCs is not fully understood yet. Here we show that miR-219 is upregulated in liver CSCs. Knockdown of miR-219 attenuates the self-renewal and tumorigenicity of liver CSCs. Conversely, miR-219 overexpressing enhances the self-renewal and tumorigenicity of liver CSCs.Mechanistically,miR-219 downregulates E-cadherin via itsmRNA 3'UTR in liver CSCs. The correlation between miR-219 and E-cadherin is validated in human HCC tissues. Furthermore, the miR-219 expression determines the responses of hepatoma cells to sorafenib treatment. Our findings indicate that miR-219 plays a critical role in liver CSCs expansion and sorafenib response, rendering miR-219 as an optimal target for the prevention and intervention of HCC.Abbreviations: HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; CSCs: cancer stem cells; DMEM: Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium; FBS: fetal bovine serum; OS: overall survival.

Tauroursodeoxycholic acid and 4-phenyl butyric acid alleviate endoplasmic reticulum stress and improve prognosis of donation after cardiac death liver transplantation in rats.

BACKGROUND: Inevitable warm ischemia time before organ procurement aggravates posttransplantation ischemia-reperfusion injury. Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress is involved in ischemia-reperfusion injury, but its role in donation after cardiac death (DCD) liver transplantation is not clear and the effect of ER stress inhibitors, tauroursodeoxycholic acid (TUDCA) and 4-phenyl butyric acid (PBA), on the prognosis of recipient of DCD liver transplantation remains unclear. METHODS: Male Sprague-Dawley rats (8-10 weeks) were randomly divided into the control group: liver grafts without warm ischemia were implanted; DCD group: warm ischemia time of the liver grafts was 60 minutes; TUDCA and PBA groups: based on the DCD group, donors were intraperitoneally injected with TUDCA or PBA 30 minutes before the organ procurements. Serum aminotransferase levels, oxidative stress activation and expression of ER stress signal molecules were evaluated. Pathological examinations were performed. The survivals of the recipients in each group were compared for 14 days. RESULTS: Compared with the control group, DCD rats had significantly higher levels of serum aminotransferase at 6 hours, 1 day and 3 days after operation (P<0.01, 0.01 and 0.05, respectively) and oxidative indices (P<0.01 for both malondialdehyde and 8-hydroxy deoxyguanosine), more severe liver damage (P<0.01) and up-regulated ER stress signal expressions (P<0.01 for GRP78, phos-eIF2alpha1, CHOP, ATF-4, ATF-6, PERK, XBP-1 and pro-caspase-12). All recipients died within 3 days after liver transplantation. Administration of TUDCA or PBA significantly decreased aminotransferase levels (P<0.05), increased superoxide dismutase activities (P<0.01), alleviated liver damage (P<0.01), down-regulated ER stress signal expressions (P<0.01) and improved postoperative survivals (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: ER stress was involved with DCD liver transplantation in rats. Preoperative intraperitoneally injection of TUDCA or PBA protected ER stress and improved prognosis.