Development of a generalized pseudo-probabilistic approach for characterizing ecological conditions in estuaries using secondary data.

Under the best circumstances, achieving or sustaining optimum ecological conditions in estuaries is challenging. Persistent information gaps in estuarine data make it difficult to differentiate natural variability from potential regime shifts. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking ecological change over time. In the United States (US), many resource management programs are working at maximum capacity to address existing state and federal water quality mandates (e.g., pollutant load limits, climate impact mitigation, and fisheries management) and have little room to expand routine sampling efforts to conduct periodic ecological baseline assessments, especially at state and local scales. Alternative design, monitoring, and assessment approaches are needed to help offset the burden of addressing additional data needs to increase understanding about estuarine system resilience when existing monitoring data are sparse or spatially limited. Research presented here offers a pseudo-probabilistic approach that allows for the use of found or secondary data, such as data on hand and other acquired data, to generate statistically robust characterizations of ecological conditions in estuaries. Our approach uses a generalized pseudo-probabilistic framework to synthesize data from different contributors to inform probabilistic-like baseline assessments. The methodology relies on simple geospatial techniques and existing tools (R package functions) developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency to support ecological monitoring and assessment programs like the National Coastal Condition Assessment. Using secondary estuarine water quality data collected in the Northwest Florida (US) estuaries, demonstrations suggest that the pseudo-probabilistic approach produces estuarine condition assessment results with reasonable statistical confidence, improved spatial representativeness, and value-added information. While the pseudo-probabilistic framework is not a substitute for fully evolved monitoring, it offers a scalable alternative to bridge the gap between limitations in resource management capability and optimal monitoring strategies to track ecological baselines in estuaries over time.

Development of Community-Level Capacity of Resilience to Natural Hazards for Environmental- and Social-Justice-Challenged Communities: 1. Approach, Concepts, and Assessment of Existing Information.

Impoverished and under-served communities are often exposed to the worst environmental and climate hazards. Identifying these communities and building their resilience capacity to withstand such hazards is a vital justice aspect of environmental management. Building community resilience requires five activities: (1) examination of existing information, (2) community engagement and assessment of local knowledge, (3) development of reasonable strategies to build resilience, (4) implementation and these strategies, and (5) monitoring and transability of the process. This manuscript examines the first component of this process. The attributes of multiple parishes in Louisiana are examined using available data and existing models of human well-being, community resilience, and environmental/climate/socioeconomic justice. These existing models and tools were used to determine parish-level resilience to natural hazards including flooding, hurricanes, and other potential natural climatic hazards in central Louisiana (U.S.). Through consultation with state officials and local community groups, candidate environmental justice (EJ) and social justice (SJ) communities were selected to develop resilience capacity enhancement plans to address potential adverse parish and community outcomes of natural hazard events. Of the available parishes, St. Helena Parish was selected as an entity that would significantly benefit from resilience capacity building. The remaining two activities, community engagement and strategy development, will be examined in sister manuscripts. Continuing studies, to be described elsewhere, will describe community engagement and the determination of strategies, implementation plans, and the monitoring of the success of these strategic implementations.

Using Re-scaled Resilience Screening Index Results and Location Quotients for Socio-Ecological Characterizations in U.S. Coastal Regions.

In terms of natural hazard events, resilience characterizations provide a means of identifying risk profiles, degrees of preparedness, and the ability of communities to respond and recover. While nationally consistent measures of community resilience to natural hazards are needed to address widespread socio-ecological impacts from a broad policy perspective, geographically specific resilience characterizations are needed to target local resources to increase community resilience. The Climate Resilience index (CRSI) was developed to characterize the resilience of socio-ecological systems in the context of governance and risk to natural hazard events for all U.S. counties for the years 2000-2015. Those resilience characterizations were based on the full range of nationwide county domain scores. This paper presents a re-scaled application of CRSI, where county domain scores are limited to the range of scores within a specific set of U.S. coastal and shoreline counties within each of eight coastal regions. The re-scaled CRSI values for selected counties/parishes in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) region are also presented in conjunction with calculated Location Quotients (LQ) values >1.0, which represent a high employment dependence on ocean economy sectors. Using a combination of re-scaled CRSI and LQ values provides a more holistic picture of vulnerability and resilience in these U.S. coastal shoreline counties. The relative resilience assessments presented for coastal regions are useful in identifying potential strengths and weaknesses in resilience aspects given similar hazard profiles, a signature otherwise diluted in nation-wide county-level assessments. The unique approach of combining CRSI and LQ for characterizing natural hazard resilience described could be transferred to other specific geographies as defined by population groups, hazard profiles and economic dependence.

Scientific Data Management in the Age of Big Data: An Approach Supporting a Resilience Index Development Effort.

The increased availability of publicly available data is, in many ways, changing our approach to conducting research. Not only are cloud-based information resources providing supplementary data to bolster traditional scientific activities (e.g., field studies, laboratory experiments), they also serve as the foundation for secondary data research projects such as indicator development. Indicators and indices are a convenient way to synthesize disparate information to address complex scientific questions that are difficult to measure directly (e.g., resilience, sustainability, well-being). In the current literature, there is no shortage of indicator or index examples derived from secondary data with a growing number that are scientifically focused. However, little information is provided describing the management approaches and best practices used to govern the data underpinnings supporting these efforts. From acquisition to storage and maintenance, secondary data research products rely on the availability of relevant, high-quality data, repeatable data handling methods and a multi-faceted data flow process to promote and sustain research transparency and integrity. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently published a report describing the development of a climate resilience screening index which used over one million data points to calculate the final index. The pool of data was derived exclusively from secondary sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Postal Service, Housing and Urban Development, Forestry Services and others. Available data were presented in various forms including portable document format (PDF), delimited ASCII and proprietary format (e.g., Microsoft Excel, ESRI ArcGIS). The strategy employed for managing these data in an indicator research and development effort represented a blend of business practices, information science, and the scientific method. This paper describes the approach, highlighting key points unique for managing the data assets of a smaller scale research project in an era of "big data."

Development of a Multi-Hazard Landscape for Exposure and Risk Interpretation: The PRISM Approach.

Multi-hazard risk assessment has long been centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities' exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is limiting on larger scales or when significantly different hazard types are present. In order to address some of these issues, an approach is developed where multiple hazards coalesce with losses into an index representing the risk landscape. Exposures are assessed as a proportion of land-area, allowing for multiple hazards to be combined in a single calculation. Risk calculations are weighted by land-use types (built, dual-benefit, natural) in each county. This allows for a more detailed analysis of land impacts and removes some of the bias introduced by monetary losses in heavily urbanized counties. The results of the quantitative analysis show a landscape where the risk to natural systems is high and the western United States is exposed to a bulk of the risk. Land-use and temporal profiles exemplify a dynamic risk-scape. The calculation of risk is meant to inform community decisions based on the unique set of hazards in that area over time.

Application of the Human Well-Being Index to Sensitive Population Divisions: A Children's Well-Being Index Development.

The assessment of community well-being is critical as an end-point measure that will facilitate decision support and assist in the identification of sustainable solutions to address persistent problems. While the overall measure is important, it is equally vital to distinguish variations among groups within the population who may be impacted in a different manner. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) developed the Human Well-Being Index (HWBI), as a way of measuring these outcomes and assessing community characteristics. The HWBI approach produces a suite of indicators, domains and a final composite index appropriate for characterizing well-being of a population. While generalized approaches are needed, it is important to also recognize variations in well-being across community enclaves. This paper presents an adaption of the HWBI for child populations to test the applicability of the index framework to specific community enclaves. First, an extensive literature review was completed to ensure the theoretical integrity of metric and indicator substitutions from the original HWBI framework. Metric data were then collected, refined, imputed where necessary and evaluated to confirm temporal and spatial availability. A Children's Well-Being Index (CWBI) value, representing the same indicators and domains of well-being as the original HWBI, was calculated for the population under age 18 across all US counties for 2011. Implications of this research point to an effective, holistic end-point measure that can be tracked over time. Similarly, there is great potential for the application of the original HWBI method to other statistical population segments within the greater US population. These adaptations could help identify and close gaps in equity of resource distribution among these groups.

Measuring Community Resilience to Natural Hazards: The Natural Hazard Resilience Screening Index (NaHRSI)-Development and Application to the United States.

Natural disasters often impose significant and long-lasting stress on financial, social, and ecological systems. From Atlantic hurricanes to Midwest tornadoes to Western wildfires, no corner of the United States is immune from the threat of a devastating natural hazard event. Across the nation, there is a recognition that the benefits of creating environments resilient to adverse natural hazard events help promote and sustain county and community success over time. The challenge for communities is in finding ways to balance the need to preserve the socioecological systems on which they depend in the face of constantly changing natural hazard threats. The Natural Hazard Resilience Screening Index (NaHRSI; previously entitled Climate Resilience Screening Index) has been developed as an endpoint for characterizing county resilience outcomes that are based on risk profiles and responsive to changes in governance, societal, built, and natural system characteristics. The NaHRSI framework serves as a conceptual roadmap showing how natural hazard events impact resilience after factoring in county characteristics. By evaluating the factors that influence vulnerability and recoverability, an estimation of resilience can quantify how changes in these characteristics will impact resilience given specific hazard profiles. Ultimately, this knowledge will help communities identify potential areas to target for increasing resilience to natural hazard events.

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index.

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience - vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptual model will be developed in a manner that will permit comparisons among governance units (e.g., counties) and permit an examination of best reliance practices.

Sediment quality in near coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico: influence of Hurricane Katrina.

The results of the present study represent a synoptic analysis of sediment quality in coastal waters of Lake Pontchartrain and Mississippi Sound two months after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Posthurricane conditions were compared to prehurricane (2000-2004) conditions, for sediment quality data. There were no exceedances of effects range median (ERM) sediment quality guideline values for chemical contaminants in any of the sediment samples collected from the Lake Pontchartrain or the Mississippi Sound study areas following the hurricane. Lower threshold effects range low (ERL) values were exceeded for As, Cd, and Ni at several stations in both survey areas, similar to levels of contamination observed prior to the hurricane. The comparison of sediment quality indicators before and after the hurricane suggests considerable stability of these systems with respect to short-term ecological impacts. Although other studies have shown storm-related changes could be detected (e.g., effects on benthic communities associated with shifts in salinity), there were no indications of widespread sediment contamination.

The areal extent of brown shrimp habitat suitability in Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA: targeting vegetated habitat restoration.

The availability of wetlands and shallow water habitats significantly influences Gulf of Mexico (GOM) penaeid shrimp fishery productivity. However, the GOM region has the highest rate of wetland loss in the USA. Protection and management of these vital GOM habitats are critical to sustainable shrimp fisheries. Brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) are a major component of GOM fisheries. We present an approach for estimating the areal extent of suitable habitat for post-larval and juvenile brown shrimp in Mobile Bay, Alabama, using an existing habitat suitability index model for the northern GOM calculated from probabilistic survey of water quality and sediment data, land cover data, and submerged aquatic vegetation coverages. This estuarine scale approach is intended to support targeted protection and restoration of these habitats. These analyses indicate that approximately 60% of the area of Mobile Bay is categorized as suitable to near optimal for post-larval and juvenile shrimp and 38% of the area is marginally to minimally suitable. We identify potential units within Mobile Bay for targeted restoration to improve habitat suitability.

Water quality in the near coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico affected by Hurricane Katrina: before and after the storm.

Water quality was assessed following Hurricane Katrina in the affected waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Post-landfall water quality was compared to pre-hurricane conditions using indicators assessed by EPA's National Coastal Assessment program and additional indicators of contaminants in water and pathogens. Water quality data collected after Hurricane Katrina suggest that the coastal waters affected by the storm exhibited higher salinity and concentrations of chlorophyll a, dissolved inorganic phosphorus, and total suspended solids following the storm compared to the previous 5-year averages. Higher bottom dissolved oxygen concentrations and light attenuation were also observed. Contaminant concentrations measured in the water column were very low or undetectable, as were the presence of pathogens. Overall water quality did not significantly differ from water quality assessed in the five years preceding the storm. Statistical analyses indicate that use of a probabilistic survey design is appropriate for making pre-storm and post storm comparisons for water quality condition on an areal basis.

Assessing coastal waters of American Samoa: territory-wide water quality data provide a critical "big-picture" view for this tropical archipelago.

The coastal waters of American Samoa's five high islands (Tutuila, Aunu'u, Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u) were surveyed in 2004 using a probabilistic design. Water quality data were collected from the near-shore coastal habitat, defined as all near-shore coastal waters including embayments, extending out to 1/4 mile off-shore. Hydrography and water column samples were collected, and water quality data were compared to the Territorial water quality standards for pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), Enterococcus, chlorophyll a, water clarity, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. All station measurements for pH, DO, and Enterococcus satisfied the local water quality standards, although some fraction of the Territory could not be assessed for either DO or Enterococcus. With respect to chlorophyll a, 66 +/- 18% of Territory coastal waters complied with the standard, while 34 +/- 18% failed to comply with the standard. For water clarity, 54 +/- 18% of the Territorial waters complied with the standard while 42 +/- 7% failed to comply. Territorial waters satisfied the standards for total nitrogen and phosphorus 72 +/- 17% and 92 +/- 10%, respectively. These data provide the first "big-picture" view of water quality in the near shore region around the high islands of American Samoa. While the picture is encouraging, these data suggest emerging water quality concerns.

The ecological condition of Gulf of Mexico resources from Perdido Key to Port St. Joe, Florida, USA: part I. coastal beach resources.

Using the approach established by EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), a shoreline monitoring survey was conducted in August and September 1999, encompassing the Florida Panhandle from Perdido Key, Florida to Port St. Joe, Florida. The objective of this survey was to demonstrate the use of a probabilistic survey for monitoring and estimating the condition of swimmable beach areas. Thirty stations were sampled using a probabilistic sampling design. Hydrographic data were collected in addition to samples for water chemistry. Bacterial indicators, enterococci and fecal coliforms, were enumerated from the water according to the EPA Beaches Environmental Assessment Closure and Health (BEACH) Program and Florida state guidelines. Additional criteria for site condition included the presence or absence of primary and secondary dunes, anthropogenic debris and vegetation. Based on EMAP evaluation guidelines and Florida state criteria, a baseline assessment of the condition of the Gulf of Mexico beach resources surveyed is presented.

The ecological condition of Gulf of Mexico resources from Perdido Key to Port St. Joe, Florida: Part II near-shelf coastal resources.

In 1999, the United States Environmental Protection Agency Gulf Ecology Division initiated a pilot study to assess the condition of nearshore coastal resources. Near-shelf areas associated with coastal beaches are susceptible to land based activities, but are not consistently monitored. Additionally, few or no marine water quality criteria exist for evaluating these waters. The goal of this pilot study was to assess the ecological condition of Gulf of Mexico near-shelf resources using a probability-based survey design. Data are used to generate a baseline assessment of condition in coastal nearshore areas and provide a comparative tool for evaluating future trends in condition. Water quality, sediment quality and benthic diversity data can provide a baseline assessment for managers to evaluate the potential for future problems such as nutrient over-enrichment, sediment contamination and degraded biological condition. We present results from a probability-based survey demonstration assessing near-shelf resources along the Florida panhandle.

The condition of coral reefs in South Florida (2000) using Coral disease and bleaching as indicators.

The destruction of coral reef habitats has occurred at unprecedented levels during the last three decades. Coral disease and bleaching in the Caribbean and South Florida have caused extensive coral mortality with limited recovery, often coral reefs are being replaced with turf algae. Acroporids were once dominant corals and have diminished to the state where they are being considered as endangered species. Our survey assessed the condition of reef corals throughout South Florida. A probability-based design produced unbiased estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition, measured as the absence or presence and frequency or prevalence of coral diseases and bleaching intensity over large geographic regions. This approach allowed us to calculate a quantifiable level of uncertainty. Coral condition was estimated for 4100 hectares (ha) (or 41.0 km2) of coral reefs in South Florida, including reefs in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), New Grounds, Dry Tortugas National Park (DTNP), and Biscayne National Park (BNP). The absence or presence of coral disease, 'causal' coral bleaching, partial bleaching and coral paling were not good indicators of overall coral condition. It was more useful to report the prevalence of anomalies that indicated a compromised condition at both the population and community levels. For example, 79% of the area in South Florida had less than 6% of the coral colonies diseased, whereas only 2.2% (97.15 ha) of the sampled area had a maximum prevalence of 13% diseased coral colonies at any single location. The usefulness of 'causal bleaching' might be more important when considering the prevalence of each of the three different states at a single location. For example, paling was observed over the entire area, whereas bleaching and partial bleaching occurred at 19 and 41% of the area, respectively. An index for coral reef condition might integrate the prevalence and species affected by each bleaching state at individual locations. By establishing these baselines, future surveys can examine changes and trends in the spatial distribution of coral conditions in South Florida and able to score the reefs as to their health status.