Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.

Exploring the Spatial Pattern of Urban Forest Ecosystem Services based on i-Tree Eco and Spatial Interpolation: A Case Study of Kyoto City, Japan.

Urban forest, as an essential urban green infrastructure, is critical in providing ecosystem services to cities. To enhance the mainstreaming of ecosystem services in urban planning, it is necessary to explore the spatial pattern of urban forest ecosystem services in cities. This study provides a workflow for urban forest planning based on field investigation, i-Tree Eco, and geostatistical interpolation. Firstly, trees across an array of land use types were investigated using a sampling method. Then i-Tree Eco was applied to quantify ecosystem services and ecosystem service value in each plot. Based on the ecosystem services estimates for plots, four interpolation methods were applied and compared by cross-validation. The Empirical Bayesian Kriging was determined as the best interpolation method with higher prediction accuracy. With the results of Empirical Bayesian Kriging, this study compared urban forest ecosystem services and ecosystem service value across land use types. The spatial correlations between ecosystem service value and four types of point of interest in urban places were explored using the bivariate Moran's I statistic and the bivariate local indicators of spatial association. Our results show that the residential area in the built-up area of Kyoto city had higher species richness, tree density, ecosystem services, and total ecosystem service value. Positive spatial correlations were found between ecosystem service value and the distribution of urban space types including the tourist attraction distribution, urban park distribution, and school distribution. This study provides a specific ecosystem service-oriented reference for urban forest planning based on land use and urban space types.

Exploring Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Practices (ILKPs) in Traditional Jhum Cultivation for Localizing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A Case Study from Zunheboto District of Nagaland, India.

Globally, shifting cultivation is known to be an important driver of tropical deforestation. However, in this paper, we argue that it can be sustainably managed if the environmental boundary conditions, laid by the traditional customs and practices, are fully respected. We narrate an empirical study from the Zunheboto district of Nagaland, India, where we deployed a mixed research method to explore the Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Practices (ILKPs) associated with shifting cultivation (aka Jhum), particularly concerning farm-level practices, forest and biodiversity conservation, and disaster risk reduction measures. The research method included analysis of primary data obtained through Focus Group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews (n = 21), and a questionnaire survey (n = 153) with Jhum farmers from two different age groups, i.e., below 50 years (middle-aged farmers) and above 50 years (older farmers). From the qualitative inquiry, we identified 15 ILKPs, which were then validated from survey responses. We used the Mann-Whitney U test to examine differences in agreement between two groups of framers. Based on this analysis, we conclude that upholding of the ILKPs holds strong potential for the local implementation of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly, SDG-1(No poverty), SDG-2 (Zero hunger), and SDG-15 (Life on land). However, eight of the identified ILKPs showed a statistically significant difference between older and middle-aged farmers, underlining a declining trend. Finally, we suggest suitable policy measures to mainstream ILKPs to balance the trade-offs in food production and biodiversity conservation, and to ensure the future sustainability of Jhum cultivation in the region and beyond.

Habitat quality assessment provides indicators for socio-ecological management: a case study of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

The impact of changing land use and land cover (LULC) on regional habitat quality have attracted extensive attention. The Loess Plateau is an ecologically fragile area; LULC changes in this region have complex impacts on habitat quality at multiple spatiotemporal scales. This study developed an integrated assessment method based on multi-source data to assess habitat quality changes in the Loess Plateau during recent years (2000-2015) and in the future (2015-2050) under four typical scenarios. A significant increase in urban land use was observed on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2050, which resulted in a continuous decrease in the cropland area. The area of forest and grassland landscapes was also reduced by both urban and cropland expansion, with the most significant loss in the grasslands. A future overall decreasing trend in overall habitat quality is predicted, but the SSP1-2.6 scenario is significantly better than the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Urban expansion contributes a rapidly increasing proportion of habitat quality decline on the Loess Plateau; urban land will become the most significant threat to regional habitat quality by 2030. Policies for socio-ecological protection with clear, high-level objectives can effectively promote habitat quality. It is recommended that national nature reserves be delineated and ecological functions in the study area be continuously monitored. This research provides a potential socio-ecological baseline and implementation strategy for the habitat conservation-oriented management of large and fragile ecological regions.

Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate.

The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade-offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co-benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale-dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re-emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.

Outcome-Based Assessment of the Payment for Mountain Agriculture: A Community-Based Approach to Countering Land Abandonment in Japan.

Agricultural land accounts for 37% of the world's terrestrial area, and the multiple functions of agroecosystems-providing food, soil and water retention, and various cultural services-are of great importance for sustainable land management. To ensure that multifunctionality, payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes have been developed for heterogeneous agroecosystems. However, the effects of the schemes have not been fully measured because, in most cases, they have been implemented as action-oriented programs rather than outcome-based payments. This study examines the effect of a community-based PES (CB-PES) program on the prevention of farmland abandonment to assess the agricultural outcomes of PES implementation in hilly and mountainous areas in Japan. We interviewed farmers in enrolled communities, mapped enrolled plots, and analyzed agricultural census data on the socioeconomic characteristics and farmland management conditions of 12,261 farmers in 960 agricultural communities in a typical hilly and mountainous area of Noto Peninsula in northern Japan. The results confirm that direct payments are effective in enhancing community management and in preventing additional farmland abandonment. In addition, we found that several socioeconomic and environmental factors at both the community and farmer levels-including geographical conditions, collective management activities, absence of successors, farm scale, and off-farm income dependency-simultaneously affected the farmland abandonment process. Specifically, collective practices within and between communities is a significant factor in preventing farmland abandonment more than collaboration with outsiders. Considering the depopulation and aging of rural communities throughout Japan, intercommunity enrollment could improve the effectiveness of CB-PES by upscaling the current payment scheme to maintain community functions.

Projecting population distribution under depopulation conditions in Japan: scenario analysis for future socio-ecological systems.

This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan's current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country's National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050.

A molecular assessment of species diversity in Tympanopleura and Ageneiosus catfishes (Auchenipteridae: Siluriformes).

In order to test the congruence of genetic data to the morphologically defined Neotropical catfish genera Tympanopleura and Ageneiosus and explore species diversity, we generated 17 DNA barcodes from five of six species of Tympanopleura and 12 of 13 species of Ageneiosus. To discriminate limits between species, an automatic barcode gap discovery (ABGD), a generalised mixed yule-coalescent model (GYMC) and fixed distance thresholds Kimura two-parameter (K2P; 3%) were used to discriminate putative species limits from the DNA barcodes. The ABGD, GMYC and K2P methods agreed by each generating 13 clusters: six in Tympanopleura (five nominal plus one undescribed species) and seven in Ageneiosus. These clusters corresponded broadly to the described species, except in the case of the Ageneiosus ucayalensis group (A. akamai, A. dentatus, A. intrusus, A. ucayalensis, A. uranophthalmus and A. vittatus). Haplotype sharing and low divergences may have prevented molecular methods from distinguishing these species. We hypothesise that this is the result of a recent radiation of a sympatric species group distributed throughout the Amazon Basin. One putative new species of Tympanopleura was also supported by the molecular data. These results taken together highlight the utility of molecular methods such as DNA barcoding in understanding patterns of diversification across large geographic areas and in recognising overlooked diversity.

Fostering biocultural diversity in landscapes through place-based food networks: a "solution scan" of European and Japanese models.

Many Japanese and European landscapes harbor biocultural diversity that has been shaped by human agency over centuries. However, these landscapes are threatened by widespread land abandonment, land-use changes, and urbanization. The aim of this study is to use a "solution scanning" method to identify place-based food networks in Europe and Japan that reinforce linkages between biological and cultural diversity in landscapes. In our analysis of 26 European and 13 Japanese cases, we find that place-based food networks are typically located in heterogeneous landscapes, are driven by civil society (and less by markets), and act at a local scale. Regional identity is the most frequently addressed societal issue. Scenery, rural tourism, and nature conservation are more important motivations in Europe, and physical well-being and revitalization of local economies are more relevant in Japan. European models are typically associated with achieving biodiversity conservation and socio-cultural tradition outcomes, and Japanese models more with public health and nutrition outcomes. We discuss the potential for transfer of approaches from Japan to Europe (e.g., models that tackle the aging of rural societies), and from Europe to Japan (e.g., models that build explicit connections between food production and biodiversity conservation). We conclude with a list of recommended policy measures, e.g., the creation of a flexible legal framework that protects the interests of and reduces political constraints for collaborative efforts to biocultural diversity in landscapes.

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima.

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km(2)) in Fukushima. Decontamination of the land is assumed to have a certain efficacy in terms of the reduction of CED. The EeCC (external exposure conversion coefficient) is the parameter having the greatest effect on the percentage of area having CED during the 30 years above 100 m Sv after decontamination, ranging from 13% (EeCC=0.2) to 55% (EeCC=0.6). Therefore, we recommend a detailed investigation of the EeCC in Japan.

Analysis of the ability of water resources to reduce the urban heat island in the Tokyo megalopolis.

Simulation procedure integrated with multi-scale in horizontally regional-urban-point levels and in vertically atmosphere-surface-unsaturated-saturated layers, was newly developed in order to predict the effect of urban geometry and anthropogenic exhaustion on the hydrothermal changes in the atmospheric/land and the interfacial areas of the Japanese megalopolis. The simulated results suggested that the latent heat flux in new water-holding pavement (consisting of porous asphalt and water-holding filler made of steel by-products based on silica compound) has a strong impact on hydrologic cycle and cooling temperature in comparison with the observed heat budget. We evaluated the relationship between the effect of groundwater use as a heat sink to tackle the heat island and the effect of infiltration on the water cycle in the urban area. The result indicates that effective management of water resources would be powerful for ameliorating the heat island and recovering sound hydrologic cycle there.

Quantitative assessment of urban and industrial symbiosis in Kawasaki, Japan.

Colocated firms can achieve environmental benefit and competitive advantage from exchanging physical resources (known as industrial symbiosis) with each other or with residential areas (referenced here as urban symbiosis). Past research illustrated that economic and environmental benefits appear self-evident, although detailed quantification has only been attempted of symbioses for energy and water utilities. This article provides a complimentary case studyfor Kawasaki, Japan. The 14 documented symbioses connect steel, cement, chemical, and paperfirms and their spin-off recycling businesses. Seven key material exchanges divert annually at least 565 000 tons of waste from incineration or landfill. Four of these collectively present an estimated economic opportunity of 13.3 billion JPY (approximately 130 million USD) annually. Five symbioses involve utilization of byproduct and two sharing of utilities. The others are traditional or new recycling industries that do not specifically benefit from geographic proximity. The synergistic effect of urban and industrial symbiosis is unique. The legislative framework for a recycling-oriented society has contributed to realization of the symbioses, as has the availability of government subsidies through the Eco-Town program.

Industrial and urban symbiosis in Japan: analysis of the Eco-Town Program 1997-2006.

Japan's Eco-Town Program spearheaded in Japan the integration of Industrial Symbiosis and Urban Symbiosis, seeking to maximise the economic and environmental benefit from close geographic proximity of industrial and urban areas, through the use of previously discarded commercial, municipal and industrial waste materials in industrial applications. The program established 26 Eco-Towns around Japan. Approximately 1.65 billion USD was invested in 61 innovative recycling projects, with an average government subsidy of 36%. In addition at least 107 other recycling facilities have been constructed without government subsidy. 14 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving industry's productivity, whilst 10 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving environmental amenity. In 16 Eco-Towns the private sector was the most important actor supporting local government in the realisation of the Eco-Town, whilst in 9 Eco-Towns this was civil society. The availability of investment subsidies, the coming into force of ambitious recycling legislation with quantified, product-specific targets, access to the significant technological resources of the private sector, and widespread recognition of the urgency to act on environmental issues, all contributed to the success of the Eco-Town Program.