Comparing vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms in rs11568820, rs7970314, rs4334089 between COVID-19 patients with mild and severe symptoms: a case control study.

The associations of vitamin D receptor (VDR)- single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the symptoms of COVID-19 may vary between patients with different severities of COVID-19. Therefore, in the present study, we aim to compare VDR polymorphisms in severe and mild COVID-19 patients. In this study, a total number of 85 hospitalized patients and 91 mild/moderate patients with COVID-19 were recruited. SNPs in VDR genes were determined using ARMS and then confirmed by sanger sequencing. The mean (SD) age of participants in hospitalized and non-hospitalized group was 59.0 (12.4) and 47.8 (14.8) years, respectively. Almost 46% of participants in hospitalized and 48% of participant in non-hospitalized group were male. The frequency of TT genotype of SNP rs11568820 was significantly lower in hospitalized than non-hospitalized group (3.5% vs. 17.6%; P = 0.018). However, there was no significant differences between genotypes of SNPs rs7970314 and rs4334089 and also alleles frequencies in all SNPs of two groups. The genotype of rs11568820 SNP had an inverse association with hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 after adjustment for comorbidities [OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04, 0.88; P = 0.034]. While, there was no relationship between genotypes of SNPs rs7970314 and rs4334089 and hospitalization. The TT genotype of rs11568820 plays protective role in sever COVID-19 and hospitalization. Further studies with a large sample size which consider various confounding factors are warranted to confirm our results.

First Iranian guidelines for the diagnosis, management, and treatment of hyperlipidemia in adults.

This guideline is the first Iranian guideline developed for the diagnosis, management, and treatment of hyperlipidemia in adults. The members of the guideline developing group (GDG) selected 9 relevant clinical questions and provided recommendations or suggestions to answer them based on the latest scientific evidence. Recommendations include the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) threshold for starting drug treatment in adults lacking comorbidities was determined to be over 190 mg/dL and the triglyceride (TG) threshold had to be >500 mg/dl. In addition to perform fasting lipid profile tests at the beginning and continuation of treatment, while it was suggested to perform cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) risk assessment using valid Iranian models. Some recommendations were also provided on lifestyle modification as the first therapeutic intervention. Statins were recommended as the first line of drug treatment to reduce LDL-C, and if its level was high despite the maximum allowed or maximum tolerated drug treatment, combined treatment with ezetimibe, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors, or bile acid sequestrants was suggested. In adults with hypertriglyceridemia, pharmacotherapy with statin or fibrate was recommended. The target of drug therapy in adults with increased LDL-C without comorbidities and risk factors was considered an LDL-C level of <130 mg/dl, and in adults with increased TG without comorbidities and risk factors, TG levels of <200 mg/dl. In this guideline, specific recommendations and suggestions were provided for the subgroups of the general population, such as those with CVD, stroke, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, elderly, and women.

Ultra-processed food consumption and cardiovascular events rate: An analysis from Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The contribution of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) to daily energy intake and, therefore, their health effects may vary between countries. We aimed to investigate the association between UPFs and the incidence risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs) and cardiovascular mortality in the Isfahan cohort study. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2001, 6504 participants aged ≥35 years were enrolled and followed until 2017. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and the NOVA system was applied for UPF classification. Any new case of CVE, including fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, unstable angina (UA), and CVD death, was recorded. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated through Cox proportional hazards regression models. A total number of 819 CVE, 164 MI, 348 UA, 172 strokes, and 181 cardiovascular deaths were recorded during 61352.5 person-years of follow-up. The median (IQR) of UPF consumption was 2.47 (1.00-5.23) times/week. In the fully adjusted model, individuals in the fourth quartile of UPFs had no higher risk for incident MI and UA (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.46; P for trend = 0.364), stroke (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.58, 1.46; P for trend = 0.601), cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.61, 1.47; P for trend = 0.596), and CVE (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.88,1.34; P for trend = 0.515) in comparison with those in the first quartile. CONCLUSION: This mid-term prospective cohort study provides no evidence for a significant association between UPF and CVE risk. Longer studies are required to confirm this association.

Association of triglyceride glucose index with cardiovascular events: insights from the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS).

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence regarding the evaluation of the association between the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, an indicator of insulin resistance, and the incident risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we aimed to examine the relationship between the TyG index and CVD incidence in a cohort of Iranian adults. METHODS: This study was performed in the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). The study population included 5,432 individuals aged ≥ 35 years. CVD events, including acute myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and unstable angina (UA), were diagnosed by physicians. The TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The relationship between the TyG index and CVD events was investigated using Cox regression models. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the best cut-off for the TyG index for predicting CVD outcomes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 11.2 years, a total number of 819 CVD, 164 MI, 172 stroke, and 384 UA were recorded. Following adjustment for multiple confounders, elevated TyG levels were associated with a higher risk of CVD (HR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.22-1.79; p < 0.001), MI (HR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.42-3.52; p < 0.001), stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI 0.96-2.19; p = 0.042), but not UA (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 0.96-1.69). The optimal TyG index cut-off was 8.91 for predicting CVD (sensitivity 58%; specificity 58%), 9.04 for predicting MI (sensitivity 57%; specificity 65%), 8.92 for predicting stroke (sensitivity 57%; specificity 57%), and 8.98 for predicting UA (sensitivity 53%; specificity 61%). CONCLUSION: We found a robust, direct association between the TyG index and the incidence of CVD events. This emphasizes the significance of observing the TyG index as an indicator of the occurrence of CVD events.

The relationship between a plant-based diet and mental health: Evidence from a cross-sectional multicentric community trial (LIPOKAP study).

BACKGROUND: Dietary patterns emphasizing plant foods might be neuroprotective and exert health benefits on mental health. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the association between a plant-based dietary index and mental health measures. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to examine the association between plant-based dietary indices, depression and anxiety in a large multicentric sample of Iranian adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was performed in a sample of 2,033 participants. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate dietary intakes of participants. Three versions of PDI including an overall PDI, a healthy PDI (hPDI), and an unhealthy PDI (uPDI) were created. The presence of anxiety and depression was examined via a validated Iranian version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: PDI and hPDI were not associated to depression and anxiety after adjustment for potential covariates (age, sex, energy, marital status, physical activity level and smoking). However, in the crude model, the highest consumption of uPDI approximately doubled the risk of depression (OR= 2.07, 95% CI: 1.49, 2.87; P<0.0001) and increased the risk of anxiety by almost 50% (OR= 1.56, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.14; P= 0.001). Adjustment for potential confounders just slightly changed the associations (OR for depression in the fourth quartile= 1.96; 95% CI: 1.34, 2.85, and OR for anxiety in the fourth quartile= 1.53; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.19). CONCLUSIONS: An unhealthy plant-based dietary index is associated with a higher risk of depression and anxiety, while plant-based dietary index and healthy plant-based dietary index were not associated to depression and anxiety.

Longitudinal association of dietary habits and the risk of cardiovascular disease among Iranian population between 2001 and 2013: the Isfahan Cohort Study.

There has been a steady rise in the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Iranian population. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between Global Dietary Index (GDI) and CVD risk among the Iranian adult population. This study was conducted based on Isfahan Cohort Study, a longitudinal study that collected data between 2001 and 2013 on 6405 adults. Dietary intakes were assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire to calculate GDI. All participants were followed every two years by phone call to ask about death, any hospitalization, or cardiovascular events to examine CVD events. The Average age of participants was 50.70 ± 11.63 and the median of GDI score was 1 (IQR: 0.29). A total of 751 CVD events (1.4 incidence rate, per 100 person-year) occurred during 52,704 person-years of follow-up. One-unit GDI increase was associated with a higher risk of MI by 72% (HR: 1.72; 95% CI 1.04-2.84), stroke by 76% (HR: 1.76; 95% CI 1.09-2.85) and CVD by 30% (HR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.02-2.65). In addition, a one-unit GDI increase was associated with a higher risk of coronary heart disease more than 2 times (HR: 2.32; 95% CI 1.50-3.60) and CVD mortality and all-cause mortality over than 3 times [(HR: 3.65; 95% CI 1.90-7.01) and (HR: 3.10; 95% CI 1.90-5.06), respectively]. Higher GDI had a significant relationship with the increased risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality. Further epidemiological studies in other populations are suggested to confirm our findings.

Changes in the burden and underlying causes of heart failure in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: The burden of heart failure (HF) is high globally, but information on its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is limited. This study provides a systematic analysis of the burden and underlying causes of HF in the EMR, including at the country level, between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for estimates of prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and underlying causes of HF in the EMR. Age-standardised prevalence, YLDs, and underlying causes of HF were compared by 5-year age groups (considering 15 years old and more), sex (male and female), and countries. Findings: In contrast with the decreasing trend of HF burden globally, EMR showed an increasing trend. Globally, the HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs decreased by 7.06% (95% UI: -7.22%, -6.9%) and 6.82% (95% UI: -6.98%, -6.66%) respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in the EMR in 2019 were 706.43 (95% UI: 558.22-887.87) and 63.46 (95% UI: 39.82-92.59) per 100,000 persons, representing an increase of 8.07% (95% UI: 7.9%, 8.24%) and 8.79% (95% UI: 8.61%, 8.97%) from 1990, respectively. Amongst EMR countries, the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were highest in Kuwait, while Pakistan consistently had the lowest HF burden. The dramatic increase of the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were seen in Oman (28.79%; 95% UI: 28.51%, 29.07% and 29.56%; 95% UI: 29.28%, 29.84%), while Bahrain witnessed a reduction over the period shown (-9.66%; 95% UI: -9.84%, -9.48% and-9.14%; 95% UI: -9.32%, -8.96%). There were significant country-specific differences in trends of HF burden from 1990 to 2019. Males had relatively higher rates than females in all age groups. Among all causes of HF in 2019, ischemic heart disease accounted for the highest age-standardised prevalence and YLDs, followed by hypertensive heart disease. Interpretation: The burden of HF in the EMR was higher than the global, with increasing age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in countries of the region. A more comprehensive approach is needed to prevent underlying causes and improve medical care to control the burden of HF in the region. Funding: None.

Effect of Rectal Midazolam on Pain, Stress, and Cooperation of Patient during Urodynamic Test in Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE:  The urodynamic study is an invasive test, and causes pain and stress in the patient. We have investigated the effect of rectal midazolam sedation on the pain, stress, and cooperation of women performing urodynamic study.  Materials and Methods: At the present randomized clinical trial (RCT) from January to July of 2021 a total of 84 women were prospectively randomized to undergo urodynamic study with or without sedation. The primary outcome of interest was experienced pain during urodynamic study. In the intervention group, after monitoring baseline vital signs (heart rate, blood pressure, O2 saturation), sedation was done with rectal midazolam at a dose of 0.3 mg/kg (maximum 15 mg). Completing the procedure, after recovery from sedation patients were asked to fill a self-assessed visual analog pain scale (VAS, 0-10), 5-point visual stress scale (1-5) and, patient collaboration level during urodynamic study was evaluated by nurse with a researcher-made tool (0-3). In the control group test was performed in routine practice with no sedation. Baseline vital signs measured pre and intra-procedural time, as well as their experienced pain, stress, and cooperation levels were recorded.  Results: 84 female cases were evaluated. In terms of comparison of changes in pre and intra-test physiologic parameters, results showed that there were no significant differences between the two groups for all physiologic parameters: SBP, DBP, PR, SpO2. Analysis of the pain score showed that it was lower in the intervention group, and there was a significant difference in pain score between the two groups (P =.024). While the stress and corporation scores were not reported statistically significant (P=.388 and P=.955, respectively). CONCLUSION:   Sedation with rectal midazolam in adult women before UDS is safe and effective in reducing pain but is not effective in reducing stress and increasing cooperation. The amount of pain based on the visual analog pain scale is mild and although this method is safe, its use routinely is not recommended.

Explaining the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Rate Using IMPACT Model: Estimation of the Changes in Risk Factors and Treatment Uptake in Iran between 2007 and 2016.

INTRODUCTION: Coronary heart disease (CHD) contributes significantly to mortality and morbidity in Iran. A model was fitted in this study to determine changes in risk factors and treatment uptake to CHD mortality rate reduction in Isfahan between 2007 and 2016. METHOD: The IMPACT model was fitted to determine how much the decrease in CHD death can be explained by treatment uptake and significant risk factors included in the analyses for adults aged 35 to 84 years. Body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and smoking were considered as the CHD risk factors in the model. Medical and interventional treatments were studied in four different groups of patients. The primary data sources were obtained from the Persian registry of cardiovascular disease (PROVE), The Isfahan healthy heart program (IHHP), and the impact of self-care management and adopted Iranian guidelines for hypertension treatment on improving the control rate of hypertension (IMPROVE CARE) study, death registration system, and the Isfahan province Cemetery. RESULTS: The CHD mortality rate decreased by 14% between 2007 and 2016 in Iran for adults aged 35 to 84 years and prevented or delayed 212 CHD deaths in 2016. Treatment uptakes caused 99% postponed or prevented death. Treatment for heart failure in hospitals explained approximately half of the death prevented by treatment. Risk factors caused about 15% of excess death. It appears that the prevalence of CHD is increasing while the death rate is decreasing because of these observed changes. CONCLUSION: Risk factors worsened in 2016 and, without treatment, could lead to an increase in CHD mortality in Iran. Preventive policies should control the risk factor and contribute to the decrease in CHD death.

Apixaban, a Novel Oral Anticoagulant, Use to Resolute Arterial Patency in Radial Artery Occlusion Due to Cardiac Catheterization; A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, transradial cardiac catheterization has become the preferred method. However, it can result in a significant complication known as radial artery occlusion (RAO). The medical management of RAO remains controversial, especially with the emergence of novel oral anticoagulants. Nevertheless, there is limited data on the use of these agents for treating RAO, which is the focus of this study using apixaban. METHOD: This pilot double-blinded randomized clinical trial involved 30 patients who developed RAO following transradial coronary angiography. The patients were randomly assigned to receive either apixaban (2.5 mg twice daily) or a conservative approach for 30 days. Doppler ultrasonography was performed at baseline and at the end of the intervention to assess radial artery diameter and the resolution of arterial patency. Demographic, medical, medication, and clinical characteristics were collected. RESULTS: The mean age of the studied population was 59.43±12.14 years, and the majority were males (60%). Radial artery resolution was observed in 21 (70%) patients, independent of medication use. There was no significant association between resolution and age (P-value=0.62), gender (P-value=0.74), body mass index (P-value=0.23), smoking (P-value=0.64), diabetes (P-value=0.999), hypertension (P-value=0.74), statins (P-value=0.999), antiplatelet therapy (P-value=0.999), length of angiography (P-value=0.216), or follow-up arterial diameter (P-value=0.304). Recanalization occurred in 13 (86.7%) cases in the apixaban treatment group, compared to 8 (53.3%) individuals in the control group, indicating a significant difference (P-value=0.046). CONCLUSION: The study findings suggest no demographic, medical, medication, or clinical factors were associated with arterial recanalization. However, a one-month treatment with apixaban at a dose of 2.5 mg twice daily appeared to be effective.

Perceived stress, anxiety, and depression in women with breast cancer: CIBC study.

BACKGROUND: Many breast cancer (BC) patients experience psychological reactions and may have psychiatric morbidities, especially anxiety and depressive disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate perceived stress and factors affecting this stress in women with BC in Isfahan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This analytical cross-sectional study was carried out among 197 females with BC who were newly diagnosed and referred to Isfahan Cardio-Oncology Clinic. Stress was measured by the Perceived Stress Scale Standard questionnaire. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with gamma distribution and Log Link Function were used for data analyzing. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 48.9 ± 10.9 years, and mean perceived stress in patients was 42.8 ± 16.5. The GLMs with Gamma distribution and Log Link Function showed interaction between anxiety and surgical type and also between depression and surgical type. Patients perceived stress with anxiety*nonsurgery were significantly 2.5% higher than normal anxiety and none surgery (P = 0.004), and patients with depression*lumpectomy had significantly 2% higher stress score compared to normal depression and nonsurgery (P =0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Early detection of anxiety and depression can contribute to managing the stress. Coordination between psychologists and oncologists in care and treatment of these patients is important for pursuing treatment and following the recommendations of doctors and ultimately affect the morbidity and survival in BC patients.

An evolutionary machine learning algorithm for cardiovascular disease risk prediction.

INTRODUCTION: This study developed a novel risk assessment model to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. It uses a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to develop an easy-to-use model with high accuracy, calibrated based on the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) database. METHODS: The ICS was a population-based prospective cohort study of 6,504 healthy Iranian adults aged ≥ 35 years followed for incident CVD over ten years, from 2001 to 2010. To develop a risk score, the problem of predicting CVD was solved using a well-designed GA, and finally, the results were compared with classic machine learning (ML) and statistical methods. RESULTS: A number of risk scores such as the WHO, and PARS models were utilized as the baseline for comparison due to their similar chart-based models. The Framingham and PROCAM models were also applied to the dataset, with the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) equal to 0.633 and 0.683, respectively. However, the more complex Deep Learning model using a three-layered Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) performed best among the ML models, with an AUROC of 0.74, and the GA-based eXplanaible Persian Atherosclerotic CVD Risk Stratification (XPARS) showed higher performance compared to the statistical methods. XPARS with eight features showed an AUROC of 0.76, and the XPARS with four features, showed an AUROC of 0.72. CONCLUSION: A risk model that is extracted using GA substantially improves the prediction of CVD compared to conventional methods. It is clear, interpretable and can be a suitable replacement for conventional statistical methods.

Priority setting in cardiovascular research in Iran using standard indigenous methods.

Background: Determining cardiovascular disease (CVD) research priorities is essential given the high burden of these diseases, limited financial resources, and competing priorities. This study aimed to determine the research priorities in CVD field in Iran using standard indigenous methods. Materials and Methods: An extensive search was done in relevant international and national studies. Then, an indigenous standard multistage approach based on multicriteria decision analysis steps was adapted to local situation and implemented. This process included forming a working group of experts in priority setting methodology, identifying the context and prioritization framework, discussing the methodology with the National Network of CVD Research (NCVDR) members who ultimately determined the priority research topics, weighted topics criteria, ranked topics, and reviewed all determined research priorities for final report. Results: Thirteen cardiovascular research priorities were determined by the NCVDR members. The first five priorities based on their scores include studies in hypertension, prevention and control of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and its risk factors, burden of IHD, Registration of CVDs, and COVID-19 and CVDs. Conclusion: Cardiovascular research priorities were determined using a standard indigenous approach by national experts who are the NCVDR members. These priorities can be used by researchers and health decision makers.

Developing Non-Laboratory Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Charts and Validating Laboratory and Non-Laboratory-Based Models.

Background: Developing simplified risk assessment model based on non-laboratory risk factors that could determine cardiovascular risk as accurately as laboratory-based one can be valuable, particularly in developing countries where there are limited resources. Objective: To develop a simplified non-laboratory cardiovascular disease risk assessment chart based on previously reported laboratory-based chart and evaluate internal and external validation, and recalibration of both risk models to assess the performance of risk scoring tools in other population. Methods: A 10-year non-laboratory-based risk prediction chart was developed for fatal and non-fatal CVD using Cox Proportional Hazard regression. Data from the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS), a population-based study among 6504 adults aged ≥ 35 years, followed-up for at least ten years was used for the non-laboratory-based model derivation. Participants were followed up until the occurrence of CVD events. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) data was used to evaluate the external validity of both non-laboratory and laboratory risk assessment models in other populations rather than one used in the model derivation. Results: The discrimination and calibration analysis of the non-laboratory model showed the following values of Harrell's C: 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.74), and Nam-D'Agostino χ2:11.01 (p = 0.27), respectively. The non-laboratory model was in agreement and classified high risk and low risk patients as accurately as the laboratory one. Both non-laboratory and laboratory risk prediction models showed good discrimination in the external validation, with Harrell's C of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75-0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.79), respectively. Conclusions: Our simplified risk assessment model based on non-laboratory risk factors could determine cardiovascular risk as accurately as laboratory-based one. This approach can provide simple risk assessment tool where laboratory testing is unavailable, inconvenient, and costly.

The long-term association of different dietary protein sources with metabolic syndrome.

Due to scarce epidemiologic data linking dietary protein intakes and metabolic syndrome (MetS), we aim to determine the longitudinal association of different types of dietary protein with the incidence of MetS among Iranians adults. The study was conducted in the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) on 6504 adults, aged ≥ 35 years, and free of MetS at baseline. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used for assessing usual dietary intakes. MetS was defined according to the Joint Scientific Statement. Mixed-effects logistic regression was applied to examine the associations between changes in weekly frequency consumption of protein and MetS status. After a median follow-up of 11.25 years, in multivariate-adjusted model, each additional frequency consumption of total protein intake (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.81-0.85), animal protein (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.77-0.83), plant protein (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.64-0.76), red meat (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.70-0.78), poultry (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.68-0.78), egg (OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.72-0.88) and nuts and seeds (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.71-0.84) was associated with reduced risk of MetS. No significant association was found for processed meat (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.87-1.01) and legumes and soy (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.86-1.07) with MetS. Our results suggest an independent inverse association between total protein, animal and plant protein and the risk of MetS. These associations did not differ by sex. Although our results can be considered to be a strategy to reduce MetS risk by dietary guidelines, randomized clinical trials are required to confirm our findings.

Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study.

BACKGROUND: Already at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis. METHODS: We used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead. RESULTS: Cause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835-0.910]). CONCLUSIONS: This study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

Diagnostic Power of Circulatory Metabolic Biomarkers as Metabolic Syndrome Risk Predictors in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Northwest of England (A Feasibility Study).

BACKGROUND: Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases with pathophysiology strongly linked to aging. A range of circulatory metabolic biomarkers such as inflammatory adipokines have been associated with MetS; however, the diagnostic power of these markers as MetS risk correlates in elderly has yet to be elucidated. This cross-sectional study investigated the diagnostic power of circulatory metabolic biomarkers as MetS risk correlates in older adults. METHODS: Hundred community dwelling older adults (mean age: 68.7 years) were recruited in a study, where their blood pressure, body composition and Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) were measured; and their fasting capillary and venous blood were collected. The components of the MetS; and the serum concentrations of Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Tumor Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α), Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-I (PAI-I), Leptin, Adiponectin, Resistin, Cystatin-C, C-Reactive Protein (CRP), insulin and ferritin were measured within the laboratory, and the HOMA1-IR and Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) were calculated. RESULTS: Apart from other markers which were related with some cardiometabolic (CM) risk, after Bonferroni correction insulin had significant association with all components of Mets and AIP. These associations also remained significant in multivariate regression. The multivariate odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence interval (CI)) showed a statistically significant association between IL-6 (OR: 1.32 (1.06-1.64)), TNF-α (OR: 1.37 (1.02-1.84)), Resistin (OR: 1.27 (1.04-1.54)) and CRP (OR: 1.29 (1.09-1.54)) with MetS risk; however, these associations were not found when the model was adjusted for age, dietary intake and adiposity. In unadjusted models, insulin was consistently statistically associated with at least two CM risk factors (OR: 1.33 (1.16-1.53)) and MetS risk (OR: 1.24 (1.12-1.37)) and in adjusted models it was found to be associated with at least two CM risk factors and MetS risk (OR: 1.87 (1.24-2.83) and OR: 1.25 (1.09-1.43)) respectively. Area under curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristics (ROC) demonstrated a good discriminatory diagnostics power of insulin with AUC: 0.775 (0.683-0.866) and 0.785 by cross validation and bootstrapping samples for at least two CM risk factors and AUC: 0.773 (0.653-0.893) and 0.783 by cross validation and bootstrapping samples for MetS risk. This was superior to all other AUC reported from the ROC analysis of other biomarkers. Area under precision-recall curve for insulin was also superior to all other markers (0.839 and 0.586 for at least two CM risk factors and MetS, respectively). CONCLUSION: Fasting serum insulin concentration was statistically linked with MetS and its risk, and this link is stronger than all other biomarkers. Our ROC analysis confirmed the discriminatory diagnostic power of insulin as CM and MetS risk correlate in older adults.

Longitudinal association of dietary fat intake with cardiovascular events in a prospective cohort study in Eastern Mediterranean region.

We examined the association of dietary fats intake with the 13-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Iranian population. Totally 5432 participants of Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) aged ≥ 35 years were included in the current study. The frequency of dietary fats including hydrogenated vegetables oil (HVO), non-hydrogenated vegetables oil (nHVO), olive oil, ghee, and animal fats during the preceding year were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. After adjustment for potential confounders, individuals in the top quartile of HVO tended to have 68% greater risk for myocardial infarction compared with those in the first quartile (95% CI: 1.02, 2.78; P = 0.058). No association was found for other dietary fat sources with ischaemic heart disease, stroke, all-cause and CVD mortality after adjustment for all potential confounders. Higher consumption of HVO was associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction.

Long-term association of red meat consumption and lipid profile: A 13-year prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The long-term associations between red meat consumption and lipid profile are not completely known. This longitudinal study assessed the association of red meat consumption with lipid profile in healthy Iranian adults using repeated measurements of red meat intake. METHODS: The population-based longitudinal study was conducted within the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study on a subsample of 1376 healthy adults, aged ≥35 y, for whom complete information was available in all three phases of the study. A simplified qualitative 48-item food frequency questionnaire, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, and fasting serum lipids and blood sugar were evaluated in three phases. Mixed-effects linear regression was applied to examine the longitudinal associations between red meat consumption and lipid profile. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, each single-serving increase in red meat and organ meat consumption was significantly associated with an increment in triacylglycerol (ß = 6.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.97-8.63), total cholesterol (ß = 3.03; 95% CI, 2.02-4.04), low-density lipoprotein (ß = 3.40; 95% CI, 2.64-4.17), high-density lipoprotein (ß = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.28-0.93), ratio of low-density to high-density lipoprotein (ß = 0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.05), and non-high-density lipoprotein (ß = 2.42; 95% CI, 1.41-3.43). However, processed meat consumption had no significant association with lipid profile. CONCLUSIONS: Total red meat intake had a significant, direct association with lipid profile after a 13-year follow-up period in a cohort of the healthy Iranian population.

Background and design of a 5-year ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction Cohort in Isfahan, Iran: SEMI-CI study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most important causes of mortality and morbidity in Iran. Secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary. The main aim of this cohort is evaluating clinical, paraclinical, management, and 5-year major events of the participants in Isfahan, Iran. METHODS: All consecutive patients with AMI hospitalized in Chamran Hospital, Isfahan, during 1 year from march 2015 were recruited and followed for 5 years. ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Cohort Study (SEMI-CI) has been initiated as a longitudinal study to evaluate course of patients with AMI in Iran, adherence to evidence-based secondary prevention drug, and five-year events such as death, re-myocardial infarction (REMI), re-hospitalization, congestive heart failure (CHF), and referring to another procedure [percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and resynchronization therapy]. RESULTS: A total of 867 patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with mean age of 60.91 ± 12.76 years were recruited. 705 (81.3%) subjects were men with mean age of 59.63 ± 12.59 years. 470 (54.2%) patients had anterior AMI (ant-AMI) and the rest had other types of AMI. The ejection fraction (EF) mean was 37.80 ± 11.74 percent. A total of 30 (3.5%) cases of AMI had not received reperfusion. 445 (51.4%) had primary PCI and 392 (45.2%) had thrombolysis at first revascularization strategy. In-hospital death occurred in 72 participants (8.3%). Drug during hospital included: at discharge, 767 (88.5%) received aspirin, 787 (90.7%) statin, 697 (80.4%) beta-blocker, and 480 (55.4%) angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor. CONCLUSION: According to the best of our knowledge, it is among few cohorts in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) in patients with AMI. This paper showed methodology of this study in patients with STEMI and its follow-up protocol. We can use this result in policy-making for improving secondary prevention strategies.