Early predictive values of clinical assessments for ARDS mortality: a machine-learning approach.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a devastating critical care syndrome with significant morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive values of dynamic clinical indices by developing machine-learning (ML) models for early and accurate clinical assessment of the disease prognosis of ARDS. We conducted a retrospective observational study by applying dynamic clinical data collected in the ARDSNet FACTT Trial (n = 1000) to ML-based algorithms for predicting mortality. In order to compare the significance of clinical features dynamically, we further applied the random forest (RF) model to nine selected clinical parameters acquired at baseline and day 3 independently. An RF model trained using clinical data collected at day 3 showed improved performance and prognostication efficacy (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89) compared to baseline with an AUC value of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.65-0.78). Mean airway pressure (MAP), bicarbonate, age, platelet count, albumin, heart rate, and glucose were the most significant clinical indicators associated with mortality at day 3. Thus, clinical features collected early (day 3) improved performance of integrative ML models with better prognostication for mortality. Among these, MAP represented the most important feature for ARDS patients' early risk stratification.

Non-invasive prediction of pulmonary vascular disease-related exercise intolerance and survival in non-group 1 pulmonary hypertension.

AIMS: The clinical utility of pulmonary hypertension (PH) risk scores in non-group 1 PH with pulmonary vascular disease (PVD) remains unresolved. METHODS AND RESULTS: We utilized the prospective multicenter PVDOMICS cohort with group 2, 3, 4 or 5 PH-related PVD and calculated group 1 PH risk scores (REVEAL 2.0, REVEAL Lite 2, French registry score and COMPERA 2). The c-statistic to predict death was compared separately in (i) pre-capillary PH groups 3/4/5, and (ii) combined post- and pre-capillary PH group 2. Exercise right heart catheterization reserve, ventricular interdependence and right ventricular-pulmonary artery (RV-PA) coupling were compared across risk categories. Among 449 individuals with group 3/4/5 PH, the REVEAL 2.0 risk score had the highest c-statistic for predicting death (0.699, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.660-0.737, p < 0.0001) with comparable performance using the simpler REVEAL Lite 2 score (0.695, 95% CI 0.656-0.734, p < 0.0001). The French and COMPERA 2 risk scores were also predictive of mortality, but performance of both was statistically inferior to REVEAL 2.0 (c-statistic difference -0.072, 95% CI -0.123 to -0.020, p = 0.006, and -0.043, 95% CI -0.067 to -0.018, p = 0.0007, respectively). RV function and RV-PA coupling measures were prognostic in isolation, but did not add incremental value to REVEAL (p > 0.50 for all). Findings were similar in patients with group 2 PH (n = 239). Stratification by the REVEAL Lite 2 score non-invasively identified non-group 1 PH with more advanced PVD with worse exercise capacity, RV-PA uncoupling, ventricular interdependence and impaired cardiac output reserve (p < 0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive REVEAL risk predicts mortality in non-group 1 PH without incremental prognostic value from detailed RV function or RV-PA coupling assessment. Baseline REVEAL Lite 2 risk stratification non-invasively identifies greater pulmonary vascular dysfunction and right heart-related exercise limitation, which may help guide patient selection for targeted pulmonary vascular therapies in non-group 1 PH.

Resistin predicts disease severity and survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal remodeling of distal pulmonary arteries in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) leads to progressively increased pulmonary vascular resistance, followed by right ventricular hypertrophy and failure. Despite considerable advancements in PAH treatment prognosis remains poor. We aim to evaluate the potential for using the cytokine resistin as a genetic and biological marker for disease severity and survival in a large cohort of patients with PAH. METHODS: Biospecimens, clinical, and genetic data for 1121 adults with PAH, including 808 with idiopathic PAH (IPAH) and 313 with scleroderma-associated PAH (SSc-PAH), were obtained from a national repository. Serum resistin levels were measured by ELISA, and associations between resistin levels, clinical variables, and single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes were examined with multivariable regression models. Machine-learning (ML) algorithms were applied to develop and compare risk models for mortality prediction. RESULTS: Resistin levels were significantly higher in all PAH samples and PAH subtype (IPAH and SSc-PAH) samples than in controls (P < .0001) and had significant discriminative abilities (AUCs of 0.84, 0.82, and 0.91, respectively; P < .001). High resistin levels (above 4.54 ng/mL) in PAH patients were associated with older age (P = .001), shorter 6-min walk distance (P = .001), and reduced cardiac performance (cardiac index, P = .016). Interestingly, mutant carriers of either rs3219175 or rs3745367 had higher resistin levels (adjusted P = .0001). High resistin levels in PAH patients were also associated with increased risk of death (hazard ratio: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.27-5.33; P < .0087). Comparisons of ML-derived survival models confirmed satisfactory prognostic value of the random forest model (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.62-0.79) for PAH. CONCLUSIONS: This work establishes the importance of resistin in the pathobiology of human PAH. In line with its function in rodent models, serum resistin represents a novel biomarker for PAH prognostication and may indicate a new therapeutic avenue. ML-derived survival models highlighted the importance of including resistin levels to improve performance. Future studies are needed to develop multi-marker assays that improve noninvasive risk stratification.

Poor cardiac output reserve in pulmonary arterial hypertension is associated with right ventricular stiffness and impaired interventricular dependence.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is characterised by poor exercise tolerance. The contribution of right ventricular (RV) diastolic function to the augmentation of cardiac output during exercise is not known. This study leverages pressure-volume (P-V) loop analysis to characterise the impact of RV diastology on poor flow augmentation during exercise in PAH. METHODS: RV P-V loops were measured in 41 PAH patients at rest and during supine bike exercise. Patients were stratified by median change in cardiac index (CI) during exercise into two groups: high and low CI reserve. Indices of diastolic function (end-diastolic elastance (E ed)) and ventricular interdependence (left ventricular transmural pressure (LVTMP)) were compared at matched exercise stages. RESULTS: Compared to patients with high CI reserve, those with low reserve exhibited lower exercise stroke volume (36 versus 49 mL·m-2; p=0.0001), with higher associated exercise afterload (effective arterial elastance (E a) 1.76 versus 0.90 mmHg·mL-1; p<0.0001), RV stiffness (E ed 0.68 versus 0.26 mmHg·mL-1; p=0.003) and right-sided pressures (right atrial pressure 14 versus 8 mmHg; p=0.002). Higher right-sided pressures led to significantly lower LV filling among the low CI reserve subjects (LVTMP -4.6 versus 3.2 mmHg; p=0.0001). Interestingly, low exercise flow reserve correlated significantly with high afterload and RV stiffness, but not with RV contractility nor RV-PA coupling. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with poor exercise CI reserve exhibit poor exercise RV afterload, stiffness and right-sided filling pressures that depress LV filling and stroke work. High afterload and RV stiffness were the best correlates to low flow reserve in PAH. Exercise unmasked significant pathophysiological PAH differences unapparent at rest.

Collagen 18A1/Endostatin Expression in the Progression of Right Ventricular Remodeling and Dysfunction in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that endostatin (ES), a potent angiostatic peptide derived from collagen type XVIII alpha 1 chain and encoded by COL18A1, is elevated in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Importantly, elevated ES has consistently been associated with altered hemodynamics, poor functional status, and adverse outcomes in adult and pediatric PAH. This study used serum samples from patients with Group I PAH and plasma and tissue samples derived from the Sugen/Chronic hypoxic (SuHx) rat pulmonary hypertension (PH) model to define associations between COL18A1/ES and disease development, including hemodynamics, right ventricular (RV) remodeling, and RV dysfunction. Using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging and advanced hemodynamic assessments with pressure-volume (PV) loops in patients with PAH to assess RV-pulmonary arterial (PA) coupling, we observed a strong relationship between circulating ES levels and metrics of RV structure and function. Specifically, RV mass and the ventricular mass index (VMI) were positively associated with ES while RV ejection fraction and RV-PA coupling were inversely associated with ES levels. Our animal data demonstrates that the development of PH is associated with increased COL18A1/ES in the heart as well as the lungs. Disease-associated increases in COL18A1 mRNA and protein were most pronounced in the RV compared to the left ventricle (LV) and lung. COL18A1 expression in the RV was strongly associated with disease-associated changes in RV mass, fibrosis, and myocardial capillary density. These findings indicate that COL18A1/ES increase early in disease development in the RV and implicate COL18A1/ES in pathologic RV dysfunction in PAH.

Preacinar Arterial Dilation Mediates Outcomes of Quantitative Interstitial Abnormalities in COPDGene.

RATIONALE: Quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) are a computed tomography (CT) measure of early parenchymal lung disease associated with worse clinical outcomes including exercise capacity and symptoms. The presence of pulmonary vasculopathy in QIA and its role in the QIA-outcome relationship is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To quantify radiographic pulmonary vasculopathy in quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) and determine if this vasculopathy mediates the QIA-outcome relationship. METHODS: Ever-smokers with QIA, outcome, and pulmonary vascular mediator data were identified from the COPDGene cohort. CT-based vascular mediators were: right ventricle-to-left ventricle ratio (RV/LV), pulmonary artery-to-aorta ratio (PA/Ao), and pre-acinar intraparenchymal arterial dilation (PA volume 5-20mm2 in cross-sectional area, normalized to total arterial volume). Outcomes were: six-minute walk distance (6MWD) and modified Medical Council Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnea score ≥2. Adjusted causal mediation analyses were used to determine if the pulmonary vasculature mediated the QIA effect on outcomes. Associations of pre-acinar arterial dilation with select plasma biomarkers of pulmonary vascular dysfunction were examined. MAIN RESULTS: Among 8,200 participants, QIA burden correlated positively with vascular damage measures including pre-acinar arterial dilation. Pre-acinar arterial dilation mediated 79.6% of the detrimental impact of QIA on 6MWD (56.2-100%, p<0.001). PA/Ao was a weak mediator and RV/LV was a suppressor. Similar results were observed in the QIA-mMRC relationship. Pre-acinar arterial dilation correlated with increased pulmonary vascular dysfunction biomarker levels including angiopoietin-2 and NT-proBNP. CONCLUSIONS: Parenchymal quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) deleteriously impact outcomes primarily through pulmonary vasculopathy. Pre-acinar arterial dilation may be a novel marker of pulmonary vasculopathy in QIA.

Sildenafil Versus Placebo for Early Pulmonary Vascular Disease in Scleroderma (SEPVADIS): protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a leading cause of death in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). An important component of SSc patient management is early detection and treatment of PH. Recently the threshold for the diagnosis of PH has been lowered to a mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) threshold of > 20 mmHg on right heart catheterization (RHC). However, it is unknown if PH-specific therapy is beneficial in SSc patients with mildly elevated pressure (SSc-MEP, mPAP 21-24 mmHg). METHODS: The SEPVADIS trial is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of sildenafil in SSc-MEP patients with a target enrollment of 30 patients from two academic sites in the United States. The primary outcome is change in six-minute walk distance after 16 weeks of treatment. Secondary endpoints include change in pulmonary arterial compliance by RHC and right ventricular function by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at 16 weeks. Echocardiography, serum N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, and health-related quality of life is being measured at 16 and 52 weeks. DISCUSSION: The SEPVADIS trial will be the first randomized study of sildenafil in SSc-MEP patients. The results of this trial will be used to inform a phase 3 study to investigate the efficacy of treating patients with mild elevations in mPAP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04797286.

Aberrant long-chain fatty acid metabolism associated with evolving systemic sclerosis-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension.

We sought to investigate differential metabolism in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) who develop pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) versus those who do not, as a method of identifying potential disease biomarkers. In a nested case-control design, serum metabolites were assayed in SSc subjects who developed right heart catheterization-confirmed PAH (n = 22) while under surveillance in a longitudinal cohort from Johns Hopkins, then compared with metabolites assayed in matched SSc patients who did not develop PAH (n = 22). Serum samples were collected at "proximate" (within 12 months) and "distant" (within 1-5 yr) time points relative to PAH diagnosis. Metabolites were identified using liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS). An LC-MS dataset from SSc subjects with either mildly elevated pulmonary pressures or overt PAH from the University of Michigan was compared. Differentially abundant metabolites were tested as predictors of PAH in two additional validation SSc cohorts. Long-chain fatty acid metabolism (LCFA) consistently differed in SSc-PAH versus SSc without PH. LCFA metabolites discriminated SSc-PAH patients with mildly elevated pressures in the Michigan cohort and predicted SSc-PAH up to 2 yr before clinical diagnosis in the Hopkins cohort. Acylcholines containing LCFA residues and linoleic acid metabolites were most important for discriminating SSc-PAH. Combinations of acylcholines and linoleic acid metabolites provided good discrimination of SSc-PAH across cohorts. Aberrant lipid metabolism is observed throughout the evolution of PAH in SSc. Lipidomic signatures of abnormal LCFA metabolism distinguish SSc-PAH patients from those without PH, including before clinical diagnosis and in mild disease.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Abnormal lipid metabolism is evident across time in the development of SSc-PAH, and dysregulated long-chain fatty acid metabolism predicts overt PAH.

A roadmap for therapeutic discovery in pulmonary hypertension associated with left heart failure. A scientific statement of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC and the ESC Working Group on Pulmonary Circulation & Right Ventricular Function.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) associated with left heart failure (LHF) (PH-LHF) is one of the most common causes of PH. It directly contributes to symptoms and reduced functional capacity and negatively affects right heart function, ultimately leading to a poor prognosis. There are no specific treatments for PH-LHF, despite the high number of drugs tested so far. This scientific document addresses the main knowledge gaps in PH-LHF with emphasis on pathophysiology and clinical trials. Key identified issues include better understanding of the role of pulmonary venous versus arteriolar remodelling, multidimensional phenotyping to recognize patient subgroups positioned to respond to different therapies, and conduct of rigorous pre-clinical studies combining small and large animal models. Advancements in these areas are expected to better inform the design of clinical trials and extend treatment options beyond those effective in pulmonary arterial hypertension. Enrichment strategies, endpoint assessments, and thorough haemodynamic studies, both at rest and during exercise, are proposed to play primary roles to optimize early-stage development of candidate therapies for PH-LHF.

Comparison of Contemporary Risk Scores in All Groups of Pulmonary Hypertension: A Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute GoDeep Meta-Registry Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a heterogeneous disease with a poor prognosis. Accurate risk stratification is essential for guiding treatment decisions in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Although various risk models have been developed for PAH, their comparative prognostic potential requires further exploration. Additionally, the applicability of risk scores in PH groups beyond group 1 remains to be investigated. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are risk scores originally developed for PAH predictive in PH groups 1 through 4? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of outcomes among patients with incident PH enrolled in the multicenter worldwide Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute GoDeep meta-registry. Analyses were performed across PH groups 1 through 4 and further subgroups to evaluate the predictive value of PAH risk scores, including Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Mangement (REVEAL) Lite 2, REVEAL 2.0, ESC/ERS 2022, Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) 3-strata, and COMPERA 4-strata. RESULTS: Eight thousand five hundred sixty-five patients were included in the study, of whom 3,537 patients were assigned to group 1 PH, whereas 1,807 patients, 1,635 patients, and 1,586 patients were assigned to group 2 PH, group 3 PH, and group 4 PH, respectively. Pulmonary hemodynamics were impaired with median mean pulmonary arterial pressure of 42 mm Hg (interquartile range, 33-52 mm Hg) and pulmonary vascular resistance of 7 Wood units (WU) (interquartile range, 4-11 WU). All risk scores were prognostic in the entire PH population and in each of the PH groups 1 through 4. The REVEAL scores, when used as continuous prediction models, demonstrated the highest statistical prognostic power and granularity; the COMPERA 4-strata risk score provided subdifferentiation of the intermediate-risk group. Similar results were obtained when separately analyzing various subgroups (PH subgroups 1.1, 1.4.1, and 1.4.4; PH subgroups 3.1 and 3.2; group 2 with isolated postcapillary PH vs combined precapillary and postcapillary PH; patients of all groups with concomitant cardiac comorbidities; and severe [> 5 WU] vs nonsevere PH). INTERPRETATION: This comprehensive study with real-world data from 15 PH centers showed that PAH-designed risk scores possess predictive power in a large PH cohort, whether considered as common to the group or calculated separately for each PH group (1-4) and various subgroups. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT05329714; URL: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov.

Health-Related Quality of Life Across the Spectrum of Pulmonary Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is frequently impaired in pulmonary arterial hypertension. However, little is known about HRQOL in other forms of pulmonary hypertension (PH). RESEARCH QUESTION: Does HRQOL vary across groups of the World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension (WSPH) classification system? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study included patients with PH from the Pulmonary Vascular Disease Phenomics (PVDOMICS) cohort study. HRQOL was assessed by using emPHasis-10 (e-10), the 36-item Medical Outcomes Study Short Form survey (physical component score [PCS] and mental component score), and the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire. Pearson correlations between HRQOL and demographic, physiologic, and imaging characteristics within each WSPH group were tested. Multivariable linear regressions compared HRQOL across WSPH groups, adjusting for demographic characteristics, disease prevalence, functional class, and hemodynamics. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between HRQOL and survival across WSPH groups. RESULTS: Among 691 patients with PH, HRQOL correlated with functional class and 6-min walk distance but not hemodynamics. HRQOL was severely depressed across WSPH groups for all measures except the 36-item Medical Outcomes Study Short Form survey mental component score. Compared with Group 1 participants, Group 2 participants had significantly worse HRQOL (e-10 score, 29 vs 24 [P = .001]; PCS, 32.9 ± 8 vs 38.4 ± 10 [P < .0001]; and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire score, 50 vs 38 [P = .003]). Group 3 participants similarly had a worse e-10 score (31 vs 24; P < .0001) and PCS (33.3 ± 9 vs 38.4 ± 10; P < .0001) compared with Group 1 participants, which persisted in multivariable models (P < .05). HRQOL was associated in adjusted models with survival across Groups 1, 2, and 3. INTERPRETATION: HRQOL was depressed in PH and particularly in Groups 2 and 3 despite less severe hemodynamics. HRQOL is associated with functional capacity, but the severity of hemodynamic disease poorly estimates the impact of PH on patients' lives. Further studies are needed to better identify predictors and treatments to improve HRQOL across the spectrum of PH.

Pulmonary hypertension in the setting of interstitial lung disease: Approach to management and treatment. A consensus statement from the Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute's Innovative Drug Development Initiative-Group 3 Pulmonary Hypertension.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) due to interstitial lung disease (ILD), a commonly encountered complication of fibrotic ILDs, is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Until recently, the studies of pulmonary vasodilator therapy in PH-ILD have been largely disappointing, with some even demonstrating the potential for harm. This paper is part of a series of Consensus Statements from the Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute's Innovative Drug Development Initiative for Group 3 Pulmonary Hypertension, with prior publications covering pathogenesis, prevalence, clinical features, phenotyping, clinical trials, and impact of PH-ILD. It offers a comprehensive review of and a holistic approach to treatment of PH-ILD, including the management of underlying interstitial lung diseases, importance of treating the comorbidities, emphasis on importance of exercise and palliation of dyspnea, and review of the most up-to-date guidelines for referral for potential lung transplant work up. It also summarizes the prior, ongoing, and possibly future studies in treatment of the vascular derangement of this morbid condition.

Germline and Somatic Mutations in DNA Methyltransferase 3A (DNMT3A) Predispose to Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) in Humans and Mice: Implications for Associated PAH.

Background: Mutations are found in 10-20% of idiopathic PAH (IPAH) patients, but none are consistently identified in connective tissue disease-associated PAH (APAH), which accounts for ∼45% of PAH cases. TET2 mutations, a cause of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminant potential (CHIP), predispose to an inflammatory type of PAH. We now examine mutations in another CHIP gene, DNMT3A , in PAH. Methods: We assessed DNMT3A mutation prevalence in PAH Biobank subjects as compared with controls, first using whole exome sequencing (WES)-derived CHIP calls in 1832 PAH Biobank patients versus 7509 age-and sex-matched gnomAD controls. We then performed deep, targeted panel sequencing of CHIP genes on a subset of 710 PAH Biobank patients and compared the prevalence of DNMT3A mutations therein to an independent pooled control cohort (N = 3645). In another cohort of 80 PAH patients and 41 controls, DNMT3A mRNA expression was studied in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Finally, we evaluated the development of PAH in a conditional, hematopoietic, Dnmt3a knockout mouse model. Results: DNMT3A mutations were more frequent in PAH cases versus control subjects in the WES dataset (OR 2.60, 95% CI: 1.71-4.27). Among PAH patients, 33 had DNMT3A variants, most of whom had APAH (21/33). While 21/33 had somatic mutations (female:male 17:4), germline variants occurred in 12/33 (female:male 11:1). Hemodynamics were comparable with and without DNMT3A mutations (mPAP=58±21 vs. 52±18 mmHg); however, patients with DNMT3A mutations were unresponsive to acute vasodilator testing. Targeted panel sequencing identified that 14.6% of PAH patients had CHIP mutations (104/710), with DNMT3A accounting for 49/104. There was a significant association between all CHIP mutations and PAH in analyses adjusted for age and sex (OR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.09-1.80), though DNMT3A CHIP alone was not significantly enriched (OR:1.15, 0.82-1.61). DNMT3A expression was reduced in patient-derived versus control PAH-PBMCs. Spontaneous PAH developed in Dnmt3a -/- mice, and it was exacerbated by 3 weeks of hypoxia. Dnmt3a -/- mice had increased lung macrophages and elevated plasma IL-13. The IL-1ß antibody canakinumab attenuated PAH in Dnmt3a -/- mice. Conclusions: Germline and acquired DNMT3A variants predispose to PAH in humans. DNMT3A mRNA expression is reduced in human PAH PBMCs. Hematopoietic depletion of Dnmt3a causes inflammatory PAH in mice. DNMT3A is a novel APAH gene and may be a biomarker and therapeutic target.