Predicting major clinical events among Canadian adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection using the influenza severity scale.

We developed and validated the Influenza Severity Scale (ISS), a standardized risk assessment for influenza, to estimate and predict the probability of major clinical events in patients with laboratory-confirmed infection. Data from the Canadian Immunization Research Network's Serious Outcomes Surveillance Network (2011/2012-2018/2019 influenza seasons) enabled the selecting of all laboratory-confirmed influenza patients. A machine learning-based approach then identified variables, generated weighted scores, and evaluated model performance. This study included 12,954 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza infections. The optimal scale encompassed ten variables: demographic (age and sex), health history (smoking status, chronic pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, and influenza vaccination status), clinical presentation (cough, sputum production, and shortness of breath), and function (need for regular support for activities of daily living). As a continuous variable, the scale had an AU-ROC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.74). Aggregated scores classified participants into three risk categories: low (ISS < 30; 79.9% sensitivity, 51% specificity), moderate (ISS ≥ 30 but < 50; 54.5% sensitivity, 55.9% specificity), and high (ISS ≥ 50; 51.4% sensitivity, 80.5% specificity). ISS demonstrated a solid ability to identify patients with hospitalized laboratory-confirmed influenza at increased risk for Major Clinical Events, potentially impacting clinical practice and research.

Taqman PACMAN: a simple molecular approach for positive rapid antigen test confirmation during periods of low prevalence.

Antigen-based rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) were widely deployed to enhance SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consistent with national guidance for low prevalence settings, positive Ag-RDTs were confirmed using nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) to avoid false positive results. However, increasing demands for positive Ag-RDT confirmation competed with other testing priorities in clinical laboratories. This work hypothesized that real-time RT-PCR without nucleic acid extraction (NAE) would be sufficiently sensitive to support positive Ag-RDT confirmation. Ag-RDT and NAAT results from community-based asymptomatic testing sites prior to the omicron variant wave were compared to calculate the weekly false positive rate (FPR) and false detection rate (FDR). Real-time RT-PCR was compared with and without NAE using 752 specimens previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using commercial NAATs and 344 specimens from Ag-RDT-positive individuals. The impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence on laboratory resources required to sustain Ag-RDT confirmation was modeled for the RT-PCR with and without NAE. Overall, FPR was low [0.07% (222/330,763)] in asymptomatic testing sites, but FDR was high [30.7% (222/724)]. When RT-PCR was compared with and without NAE, 100% concordance was obtained with NAAT-positive specimens, including those from Ag-RDT-positive individuals. NAE-free RT-PCR significantly reduced time to results, human resources, and overall costs. A 30.7% FDR reaffirms the need for NAAT-based confirmation of positive Ag-RDT results during low SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. NAE-free RT-PCR was shown to be a simple and cost-sparing NAAT-based solution for positive Ag-RDT confirmation, and its implementation supported data-driven broader Ag-RDT deployment into communities, workplaces, and households. IMPORTANCE: Rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 was widely deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic. In settings of low prevalence, national guidance recommends that positive antigen test results be confirmed with molecular testing. Given the high testing burden on clinical laboratories during the COVID-19 pandemic, the high volume of positive antigen tests submitted for confirmatory testing posed challenges for laboratory workflow. This study demonstrated that a simple PCR method without prior nucleic acid purification is an accurate and cost-effective solution for positive rapid antigen test confirmation. Implementing this method allowed molecular confirmatory testing for positive antigen tests to be sustained as antigen testing was expanded into large populations such as workplaces, schools, and households.

Clinical features and outcomes of influenza and RSV coinfections: a report from Canadian immunization research network serious outcomes surveillance network.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and RSV coinfections are not commonly seen but are concerning as they can lead to serious illness and adverse clinical outcomes among vulnerable populations. Here we describe the clinical features and outcomes of influenza and RSV coinfections in hospitalized adults. METHODS: A cohort study was performed with pooled active surveillance in hospitalized adults ≥ 50 years from the Serious Outcomes Surveillance Network of the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN SOS) during the 2012/13, 2013/14, and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Descriptive statistics summarized the characteristics of influenza/RSV coinfections. Kaplan-Meier estimated the probability of survival over the first 30 days of hospitalization. RESULTS: Over three influenza seasons, we identified 33 cases of RSV and influenza coinfection, accounting for 2.39 cases per 1,000 hospitalizations of patients with acute respiratory illnesses. Adults aged 50 + years commonly reported cough (81.8%), shortness of breath (66.7%), sputum production (45.5%), weakness (33.3%), fever (27.3%), and nasal congestion (24.2%) as constitutional and lower respiratory tract infection symptoms. The mortality rate was substantial (12.1%), and age, comorbidity burden, and frailty were associated with a higher risk for adverse clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults are at higher risk for complications from influenza and RSV coinfections, especially those over 65 with a high comorbidity burden and frailty.

Epidemiology and clinical manifestations of reported Lyme disease cases: Data from the Canadian Lyme disease enhanced surveillance system.

Lyme disease cases reported in seven Canadian provinces from 2009 to 2019 through the Lyme Disease Enhanced Surveillance System are described herein by demographic, geography, time and season. The proportion of males was greater than females. Bimodal peaks in incidence were observed in children and older adults (≥60 years of age) for all clinical signs except cardiac manifestations, which were more evenly distributed across age groups. Proportions of disease stages varied between provinces: Atlantic provinces reported mainly early Lyme disease, while Ontario reported equal proportions of early and late-stage Lyme disease. Early Lyme disease cases were mainly reported between May through November, whereas late Lyme disease were reported in December through April. Increased awareness over time may have contributed to a decrease in the proportion of cases reporting late disseminated Lyme disease. These analyses help better describe clinical features of reported Lyme disease cases in Canada.