Incidences of colorectal adenomas and cancers under colonoscopy surveillance suggest an accelerated "Big Bang" pathway to CRC in three of the four Lynch syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) in the Lynch syndromes have been assumed to emerge through an accelerated adenoma-carcinoma pathway. In this model adenomas with deficient mismatch repair have an increased probability of acquiring additional cancer driver mutation(s) resulting in more rapid progression to malignancy. If this model was accurate, the success of colonoscopy in preventing CRC would be a function of the intervals between colonoscopies and mean sojourn time of detectable adenomas. Contrary to expectations, colonoscopy did not decrease incidence of CRC in the Lynch syndromes and shorter colonoscopy intervals have not been effective in reducing CRC incidence. The prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) was designed to examine these issues in carriers of pathogenic variants of the mis-match repair (path_MMR) genes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined the CRC and colorectal adenoma incidences in 3,574 path_MLH1, path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers subjected to regular colonoscopy with polypectomy, and considered the results based on sojourn times and stochastic probability paradigms. RESULTS: Most of the path_MMR carriers in each genetic group had no adenomas. There was no association between incidences of CRC and the presence of adenomas. There was no CRC observed in path_PMS2 carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy prevented CRC in path_PMS2 carriers but not in the others. Our findings are consistent with colonoscopy surveillance blocking the adenoma-carcinoma pathway by removing identified adenomas which might otherwise become CRCs. However, in the other carriers most CRCs likely arised from dMMR cells in the crypts that have an increased mutation rate with increased stochastic chaotic probabilities for mutations. Therefore, this mechanism, that may be associated with no or only a short sojourn time of MSI tumours as adenomas, could explain the findings in our previous and current reports.

Dominantly inherited micro-satellite instable cancer - the four Lynch syndromes - an EHTG, PLSD position statement.

The recognition of dominantly inherited micro-satellite instable (MSI) cancers caused by pathogenic variants in one of the four mismatch repair (MMR) genes MSH2, MLH1, MSH6 and PMS2 has modified our understanding of carcinogenesis. Inherited loss of function variants in each of these MMR genes cause four dominantly inherited cancer syndromes with different penetrance and expressivities: the four Lynch syndromes. No person has an "average sex "or a pathogenic variant in an "average Lynch syndrome gene" and results that are not stratified by gene and sex will be valid for no one. Carcinogenesis may be a linear process from increased cellular division to localized cancer to metastasis. In addition, in the Lynch syndromes (LS) we now recognize a dynamic balance between two stochastic processes: MSI producing abnormal cells, and the host's adaptive immune system's ability to remove them. The latter may explain why colonoscopy surveillance does not reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer in LS, while it may improve the prognosis. Most early onset colon, endometrial and ovarian cancers in LS are now cured and most cancer related deaths are after subsequent cancers in other organs. Aspirin reduces the incidence of colorectal and other cancers in LS. Immunotherapy increases the host immune system's capability to destroy MSI cancers. Colonoscopy surveillance, aspirin prevention and immunotherapy represent major steps forward in personalized precision medicine to prevent and cure inherited MSI cancer.

Mortality by age, gene and gender in carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair gene variants receiving surveillance for early cancer diagnosis and treatment: a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database.

Background: The Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) collates information on carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic MMR variants (path_MMR) who are receiving medical follow-up, including colonoscopy surveillance, which aims to the achieve early diagnosis and treatment of cancers. Here we use the most recent PLSD cohort that is larger and has wider geographical representation than previous versions, allowing us to present mortality as an outcome, and median ages at cancer diagnoses for the first time. Methods: The PLSD is a prospective observational study without a control group that was designed in 2012 and updated up to October 2022. Data for 8500 carriers of path_MMR variants from 25 countries were included, providing 71,713 years of follow up. Cumulative cancer incidences at 65 years of age were combined with 10-year crude survival following cancer, to derive estimates of mortality up to 75 years of age by organ, gene, and gender. Findings: Gynaecological cancers were more frequent than colorectal cancers in path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 53.3%, 49.6% and 23.3% at 75 years, respectively]. Endometrial, colon and ovarian cancer had low mortality [8%, 13% and 15%, respectively] and prostate cancers were frequent in male path_MSH2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 39.7% at 75 years]. Pancreatic, brain, biliary tract and ureter and kidney and urinary bladder cancers were associated with high mortality [83%, 66%, 58%, 27%, and 29%, respectively]. Among path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, particularly path_MSH2 carriers, more deaths followed non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers than colorectal cancers. Interpretation: In path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were associated with more deaths than were colorectal cancers. Reducing deaths from non-colorectal cancers presents a key challenge in contemporary medical care in Lynch syndrome. Funding: We acknowledge funding from the Norwegian Cancer Society, contract 194751-2017.

Machine Learning Methods Improve Specificity in Newborn Screening for Isovaleric Aciduria.

Isovaleric aciduria (IVA) is a rare disorder of leucine metabolism and part of newborn screening (NBS) programs worldwide. However, NBS for IVA is hampered by, first, the increased birth prevalence due to the identification of individuals with an attenuated disease variant (so-called "mild" IVA) and, second, an increasing number of false positive screening results due to the use of pivmecillinam contained in the medication. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been analyzed, analogous to new biomarkers or second-tier methods, in the context of NBS. In this study, we investigated the application of machine learning classification methods to improve IVA classification using an NBS data set containing 2,106,090 newborns screened in Heidelberg, Germany. Therefore, we propose to combine two methods, linear discriminant analysis, and ridge logistic regression as an additional step, a digital-tier, to traditional NBS. Our results show that this reduces the false positive rate by 69.9% from 103 to 31 while maintaining 100% sensitivity in cross-validation. The ML methods were able to classify mild and classic IVA from normal newborns solely based on the NBS data and revealed that besides isovalerylcarnitine (C5), the metabolite concentration of tryptophan (Trp) is important for improved classification. Overall, applying ML methods to improve the specificity of IVA could have a major impact on newborns, as it could reduce the newborns' and families' burden of false positives or over-treatment.

Is HLA type a possible cancer risk modifier in Lynch syndrome?

Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common inherited cancer syndrome. It is inherited via a monoallelic germline variant in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. LS carriers have a broad 30% to 80% risk of developing various malignancies, and more precise, individual risk estimations would be of high clinical value, allowing tailored cancer prevention and surveillance. Due to MMR deficiency, LS cancers are characterized by the accumulation of frameshift mutations leading to highly immunogenic frameshift peptides (FSPs). Thus, immune surveillance is proposed to inhibit the outgrowth of MMR-deficient cell clones. Recent studies have shown that immunoediting during the evolution of MMR-deficient cancers leads to a counter-selection of highly immunogenic antigens. The immunogenicity of FSPs is dependent on the antigen presentation. One crucial factor determining antigen presentation is the HLA genotype. Hence, a LS carrier's HLA genotype plays an important role in the presentation of FSP antigens to the immune system, and may influence the likelihood of progression from precancerous lesions to cancer. To address the challenge of clarifying this possibility including diverse populations with different HLA types, we have established the INDICATE initiative (Individual cancer risk by HLA type, http://indicate-lynch.org/), an international network aiming at a systematic evaluation of the HLA genotype as a possible cancer risk modifier in LS. Here we summarize the current knowledge on the role of HLA type in cancer risk and outline future research directions to delineate possible association in the scenario of LS with genetically defined risk population and highly immunogenic tumors.

A simple approach for detecting HLA-A*02 alleles in archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples and an application example for studying cancer immunoediting.

The HLA system represents a central component of the antigen presentation machinery. As every patient possesses a defined set of HLA molecules, only certain antigens can be presented on the cell surface. Thus, studying HLA type-dependent antigen presentation can improve the understanding of variation in susceptibility to various diseases, including infectious diseases and cancer. In archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue, the HLA type is difficult to analyze because of fragmentation of DNA, hindering the application of commonly used assays that rely on long DNA stretches. Addressing these difficulties, we present a refined approach for characterizing presence or absence of HLA-A*02, the most common HLA-A allele in the Caucasian population, in archival samples. We validated our genotyping strategy in a cohort of 90 samples with HLA status obtained by an NGS-based method. 90% (n = 81) of the samples could be analyzed with the approach. For all of them, the presence or absence of HLA-A*02 alleles was correctly determined with the method, demonstrating 100% sensitivity and specificity (95% CI: 91.40%-100% and 91.19%-100%). Furthermore, we provide an example of application in an independent cohort of 73 FFPE microsatellite-unstable (MSI) colorectal cancer samples. As MSI cancer cells encompass a high number of mutations in coding microsatellites, leading to the generation of highly immunogenic frameshift peptide antigens, they are ideally suited for studying relations between the mutational landscape of tumor cells and interindividual differences in the immune system, including the HLA genotype. Overall, our method can help to promote studying HLA type-dependency during the pathogenesis of a wide range of diseases, making archival and historic tissue samples accessible for identifying HLA-A*02 alleles.

Colorectal cancer incidences in Lynch syndrome: a comparison of results from the prospective lynch syndrome database and the international mismatch repair consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To compare colorectal cancer (CRC) incidences in carriers of pathogenic variants of the MMR genes in the PLSD and IMRC cohorts, of which only the former included mandatory colonoscopy surveillance for all participants. METHODS: CRC incidences were calculated in an intervention group comprising a cohort of confirmed carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (path_MMR) followed prospectively by the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD). All had colonoscopy surveillance, with polypectomy when polyps were identified. Comparison was made with a retrospective cohort reported by the International Mismatch Repair Consortium (IMRC). This comprised confirmed and inferred path_MMR carriers who were first- or second-degree relatives of Lynch syndrome probands. RESULTS: In the PLSD, 8,153 subjects had follow-up colonoscopy surveillance for a total of 67,604 years and 578 carriers had CRC diagnosed. Average cumulative incidences of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers at 70 years of age were 52% in males and 41% in females; for path_MSH2 50% and 39%; for path_MSH6 13% and 17% and for path_PMS2 11% and 8%. In contrast, in the IMRC cohort, corresponding cumulative incidences were 40% and 27%; 34% and 23%; 16% and 8% and 7% and 6%. Comparing just the European carriers in the two series gave similar findings. Numbers in the PLSD series did not allow comparisons of carriers from other continents separately. Cumulative incidences at 25 years were < 1% in all retrospective groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prospectively observed CRC incidences (PLSD) in path_MLH1 and path_MSH2 carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance and polypectomy were higher than in the retrospective (IMRC) series, and were not reduced in path_MSH6 carriers. These findings were the opposite to those expected. CRC point incidence before 50 years of age was reduced in path_PMS2 carriers subjected to colonoscopy, but not significantly so.

Opportunities and challenges in machine learning-based newborn screening-A systematic literature review.

The development and continuous optimization of newborn screening (NBS) programs remains an important and challenging task due to the low prevalence of screened diseases and high sensitivity requirements for screening methods. Recently, different machine learning (ML) methods have been applied to support NBS. However, most studies only focus on single diseases or specific ML techniques making it difficult to draw conclusions on which methods are best to implement. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed publications on ML-based NBS methods. Overall, 125 related papers, published in the past two decades, were collected for the study, and 17 met the inclusion criteria. We analyzed the opportunities and challenges of ML methods for NBS including data preprocessing, classification models and pattern recognition methods based on their underlying approaches, data requirements, interpretability on a modular level, and performance. In general, ML methods have the potential to reduce the false positive rate and identify so far unknown metabolic patterns within NBS data. Our analysis revealed, that, among the presented, logistic regression analysis and support vector machines seem to be valuable candidates for NBS. However, due to the variety of diseases and methods, a general recommendation for a single method in NBS is not possible. Instead, these methods should be further investigated and compared to other approaches in comprehensive studies as they show promising results in NBS applications.

Mathematical modeling of multiple pathways in colorectal carcinogenesis using dynamical systems with Kronecker structure.

Like many other types of cancer, colorectal cancer (CRC) develops through multiple pathways of carcinogenesis. This is also true for colorectal carcinogenesis in Lynch syndrome (LS), the most common inherited CRC syndrome. However, a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of these pathways of carcinogenesis, which allows for tailored clinical treatment and even prevention, is still lacking. We suggest a linear dynamical system modeling the evolution of different pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis based on the involved driver mutations. The model consists of different components accounting for independent and dependent mutational processes. We define the driver gene mutation graphs and combine them using the Cartesian graph product. This leads to matrix components built by the Kronecker sum and product of the adjacency matrices of the gene mutation graphs enabling a thorough mathematical analysis and medical interpretation. Using the Kronecker structure, we developed a mathematical model which we applied exemplarily to the three pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in LS. Beside a pathogenic germline variant in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes, driver mutations in APC, CTNNB1, KRAS and TP53 are considered. We exemplarily incorporate mutational dependencies, such as increased point mutation rates after MMR deficiency, and based on recent experimental data, biallelic somatic CTNNB1 mutations as common drivers of LS-associated CRCs. With the model and parameter choice, we obtained simulation results that are in concordance with clinical observations. These include the evolution of MMR-deficient crypts as early precursors in LS carcinogenesis and the influence of variants in MMR genes thereon. The proportions of MMR-deficient and MMR-proficient APC-inactivated crypts as first measure for the distribution among the pathways in LS-associated colorectal carcinogenesis are compatible with clinical observations. The approach provides a modular framework for modeling multiple pathways of carcinogenesis yielding promising results in concordance with clinical observations in LS CRCs.

Age-dependent performance of BRAF mutation testing in Lynch syndrome diagnostics.

BRAF V600E mutations have been reported as a marker of sporadic microsatellite instability (MSI) colorectal cancer (CRC). Current international diagnostic guidelines recommend BRAF mutation testing in MSI CRC patients to predict low risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). We evaluated the age-specific performance of BRAF testing in LS diagnostics. We systematically compared the prevalence of BRAF mutations in LS-associated CRCs and unselected MSI CRCs in different age groups as available from published studies, databases and population-based patient cohorts. Sensitivity/specificity analysis of BRAF testing for exclusion of LS and cost calculations were performed. Among 969 MSI CRCs from LS carriers in the literature and German HNPCC Consortium, 15 (1.6%) harbored BRAF mutations. Six of seven LS patients with BRAF-mutant CRC and reported age were <50 years. Among 339 of 756 (44.8%) of BRAF mutations detected in unselected MSI CRC, only 2 of 339 (0.6%) BRAF mutations were detected in patients <50 years. The inclusion of BRAF testing led to high risk of missing LS patients and increased costs at age <50 years. BRAF testing in patients <50 years carries a high risk of missing a hereditary cancer predisposition and is cost-inefficient. We suggest direct referral of MSI CRC patients <50 years to genetic counseling without BRAF testing.

The shared frameshift mutation landscape of microsatellite-unstable cancers suggests immunoediting during tumor evolution.

The immune system can recognize and attack cancer cells, especially those with a high load of mutation-induced neoantigens. Such neoantigens are abundant in DNA mismatch repair (MMR)-deficient, microsatellite-unstable (MSI) cancers. MMR deficiency leads to insertion/deletion (indel) mutations at coding microsatellites (cMS) and to neoantigen-inducing translational frameshifts. Here, we develop a tool to quantify frameshift mutations in MSI colorectal and endometrial cancer. Our results show that frameshift mutation frequency is negatively correlated to the predicted immunogenicity of the resulting peptides, suggesting counterselection of cell clones with highly immunogenic frameshift peptides. This correlation is absent in tumors with Beta-2-microglobulin mutations, and HLA-A*02:01 status is related to cMS mutation patterns. Importantly, certain outlier mutations are common in MSI cancers despite being related to frameshift peptides with functionally confirmed immunogenicity, suggesting a possible driver role during MSI tumor evolution. Neoantigens resulting from shared mutations represent promising vaccine candidates for prevention of MSI cancers.