causalizeR: a text mining algorithm to identify causal relationships in scientific literature.

Complex interactions among multiple abiotic and biotic drivers result in rapid changes in ecosystems worldwide. Predicting how specific interactions can cause ripple effects potentially resulting in abrupt shifts in ecosystems is of high relevance to policymakers, but difficult to quantify using data from singular cases. We present causalizeR (https://github.com/fjmurguzur/causalizeR), a text-processing algorithm that extracts causal relations from literature based on simple grammatical rules that can be used to synthesize evidence in unstructured texts in a structured manner. The algorithm extracts causal links using the relative position of nouns relative to the keyword of choice to extract the cause and effects of interest. The resulting database can be combined with network analysis tools to estimate the direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers at the network level, which is useful for synthesizing available knowledge and for hypothesis creation and testing. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by detecting causal relationships in scientific literature relating to the tundra ecosystem.

Quantifying tourism booms and the increasing footprint in the Arctic with social media data.

Arctic tourism has rapidly increased in the past two decades. We used social media data to examine localized tourism booms and quantify the spatial expansion of the Arctic tourism footprint. We extracted geotagged locations from over 800,000 photos on Flickr and mapped these across space and time. We critically examine the use of social media as a data source in data-poor regions, and find that while social media data is not suitable as an early warning system of tourism growth in less visited parts of the world, it can be used to map changes at large spatial scales. Our results show that the footprint of summer tourism quadrupled and winter tourism increased by over 600% between 2006 and 2016, although large areas of the Arctic remain untouched by tourism. This rapid increase in the tourism footprint raises concerns about the impacts and sustainability of tourism on Arctic ecosystems and communities. This boom is set to continue, as new parts of the Arctic are being opened to tourism by melting sea ice, new airports and continued promotion of the Arctic as a 'last chance to see' destination. Arctic societies face complex decisions about whether this ongoing growth is socially and environmentally sustainable.

Local land use associated with socio-economic development in six arctic regions.

The socioeconomic causes of land use change are complex. They are highly context dependent, but most often studied through case studies. Here, we use a quasi-experimental paired block design to investigate whether better access to wage income leads to more visible land use around 28 settlements in six regions of the circumpolar Arctic. We mapped visible land use on high-resolution satellite images taken both close to the settlements, and in a more remote area of extensive land use, and payed special attention to tracks of off-road vehicles (ORV). Despite considerable differences among regions, there was an overall positive relationship between better access to wage income and land use. Reindeer herding was also associated with more visible use, in particular ORV tracks. These results suggest that access to wage income in the mixed subsistence-cash communities of the Arctic could lead to more local use related to harvesting and reindeer herding.

Community-based management: under what conditions do Sámi pastoralists manage pastures sustainably?

Community-based management (CBM) has been implemented in socio-ecological systems (SES) worldwide. CBM has also been the prevailing policy in Sámi pastoral SES in Norway, but the outcomes tend to vary extensively among resource groups ("siidas"). We asked why do some siidas self-organize to manage common pool resources sustainably and others do not? To answer this question we used a mixed methods approach. First, in the statistical analyses we analyzed the relationship between sustainability indicators and structural variables. We found that small winter pastures that are shared by few siidas were managed more sustainably than larger pastures. Seasonal siida stability, i.e., a low turnover of pastoralists working together throughout the year, and equality among herders, also contributed to more sustainable outcomes. Second, interviews were conducted in the five largest pastures to explain the relationships between the structural variables and sustainability. The pastoralists expressed a high level of agreement with respect to sustainable policies, but reported a low level of trust and cooperation among the siidas. The pastoralists requested siida tenures or clear rules and sanctioning mechanisms by an impartial authority rather than flexible organization or more autonomy for the siidas. The lack of nestedness in self-organization for managing pastures on larger scales, combined with the past economic policies, could explain why CBM is less sustainable on the largest winter pastures. We conclude that the scale mis-match between self-organization and the formal governance is a key condition for sustainability.

Incentives and regulations to reconcile conservation and development: thirty years of governance of the Sami pastoral ecosystem in Finnmark, Norway.

Incentive-based mechanisms are regarded as efficient instruments to reconcile conservation and development. This win-win objective has been difficult to accomplish; cross-compliance has, therefore, been suggested as a mechanism to ensure sustainability. Cross-compliance, which requires producers to conform to production regulations and environmental standards to qualify for direct payments, has been a popular instrument in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. Since 1990, cross-compliance has been the main characteristic of policy design in Sami reindeer husbandry in Finnmark, Norway. All direct transfers to the Sami pastoralists have been connected to harvesting demands to decrease the number of reindeer and to conserve pastures. The content of these incentive-based mechanisms are decided through negotiated agreements with the Sami Reindeer Herders' Association of Norway (NRL), and the regulation of reindeer numbers and access to pastures are delegated to co-management boards. Despite the participation of the Sami pastoralists in shaping these policies, win-win objectives have not been achieved. Although the cross-compliance program could have been improved by payment for graded results, the lack of regulations by the administration or co-management boards is more likely to be the cause of failure to reach sustainability. Despite the long-term failures of the cross-compliance program, policies have been slow to change. We might attribute this delay to the NRL's strong position in the negotiated agreements. In general, we argue that the success of the cross-compliance program depends on a well-functioning governance system that can implement regulations and sanctions if incentives do not work as intended.