Robustly estimating the marginal likelihood for cognitive models via importance sampling.

Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) extend the scope of Bayesian inference to models for which the likelihood function is intractable. Although these developments allow us to estimate model parameters, other basic problems such as estimating the marginal likelihood, a fundamental tool in Bayesian model selection, remain challenging. This is an important scientific limitation because testing psychological hypotheses with hierarchical models has proven difficult with current model selection methods. We propose an efficient method for estimating the marginal likelihood for models where the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. It is based on first running a sampling method such as MCMC to obtain samples for the model parameters, and then using these samples to construct the proposal density in an importance sampling (IS) framework with an unbiased estimate of the likelihood. Our method has several attractive properties: it generates an unbiased estimate of the marginal likelihood, it is robust to the quality and target of the sampling method used to form the IS proposals, and it is computationally cheap to estimate the variance of the marginal likelihood estimator. We also obtain the convergence properties of the method and provide guidelines on maximizing computational efficiency. The method is illustrated in two challenging cases involving hierarchical models: identifying the form of individual differences in an applied choice scenario, and evaluating the best parameterization of a cognitive model in a speeded decision making context. Freely available code to implement the methods is provided. Extensions to posterior moment estimation and parallelization are also discussed.

Outbreak of Escherichia coli O157 Phage Type 32 linked to the consumption of venison products.

In September 2015, an outbreak of Escherichia coli Phage Type 32 with an indistinguishable multi locus variable number tandem repeat analysis profile was identified in Scotland. Twelve cases were identified; nine primary cases, two secondary and one asymptomatic case. Extensive food history investigations identified venison products containing wild venison produced by a single food business operator as the most likely source of the outbreak. Of the nine primary cases, eight had consumed venison products, and one case had not eaten venison themselves but had handled and cooked raw venison in the household. This was the first reported outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) linked to venison products in the UK, and was also notable due to the implicated products being commercially produced and widely distributed. In contrast, previous venison outbreaks reported from other countries have tended to be smaller and related to individually prepared carcases. The outbreak has highlighted some important knowledge gaps in relation to STEC in venison that are currently been investigated via a number of research studies.

Incorporating blood-based liquid biopsy information into cancer staging: time for a TNMB system?

Tissue biopsy is the standard diagnostic procedure for cancer. Biopsy may also provide material for genotyping, which can assist in the diagnosis and selection of targeted therapies but may fall short in cases of inadequate sampling, particularly from highly heterogeneous tumors. Traditional tissue biopsy suffers greater limitations in its prognostic capability over the course of disease, most obviously as an invasive procedure with potential complications, but also with respect to probable tumor clonal evolution and metastasis over time from initial biopsy evaluation. Recent work highlights circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) present in the blood as a supplemental, or perhaps an alternative, source of DNA to identify the clinically relevant cancer mutational landscape. Indeed, this noninvasive approach may facilitate repeated monitoring of disease progression and treatment response, serving as a means to guide targeted therapies based on detected actionable mutations in patients with advanced or metastatic solid tumors. Notably, ctDNA is heralding a revolution in the range of genomic profiling and molecular mechanisms to be utilized in the battle against cancer. This review will discuss the biology of ctDNA, current methods of detection and potential applications of this information in tumor diagnosis, treatment, and disease prognosis. Conventional classification of tumors to describe cancer stage follow the TNM notation system, heavily weighting local tumor extent (T), lymph node invasion (N), and detectable metastasis (M). With recent advancements in genomics and bioinformatics, it is conceivable that routine analysis of ctDNA from liquid biopsy (B) may make cancer diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis more accurate for individual patients. We put forward the futuristic concept of TNMB tumor classification, opening a new horizon for precision medicine with the hope of creating better outcomes for cancer patients.

Under-reporting giardiasis: time to consider the public health implications.

Giardiasis is a treatable disease, caused by the flagellated protozoan parasite, Giardia duodenalis (G. duodenalis). It is one of the most common enteric parasites found globally to cause gastrointestinal disturbances, and infections may result in long-term irritable bowel syndrome-like symptoms. It is a common misconception that giardiasis is associated with foreign travel, which results in locally acquired cases in the UK being underdiagnosed. This report highlights the findings from one large Scottish Health Board, arising from a change in testing methodology, which resulted in the screening of all stools submitted for enteric investigations for G. duodenalis. Previous selection criteria were restricted to patients with a travel history to specific regions of the world, or on the basis of certain clinical details. In this report, clinical details were recorded from samples shown to be positive using two methods: an ELISA-based antigen detection assay and microscopy. Clinical details were assessed for a total of 28 laboratory-confirmed positive cases against the original selection criteria. Twenty-six cases (93%) would have been excluded from Giardia testing if the previous selection criteria had been applied. Although nine cases stated foreign travel, only two had been to regions deemed to be 'high risk'. Therefore, those seven cases that travelled to perceived 'low-risk' regions would have been excluded from testing for this reason. This summary highlights the need for significant improvements to the selection criteria for Giardia testing. Laboratories should be encouraged towards the testing of all routinely submitted stools for this neglected pathogen to ensure cases that are acquired locally are properly identified and treated effectively.

Randomised crossover trial of telemonitoring in chronic respiratory patients (TeleCRAFT trial).

DESIGN: Randomised crossover trial with 6 months of standard best practice clinical care (control group) and 6 months with the addition of telemonitoring. PARTICIPANTS: 68 patients with chronic lung disease (38 with COPD; 30 with chronic respiratory failure due to other causes), who had a hospital admission for an exacerbation within 6 months of randomisation and either used long-term oxygen therapy or had an arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) of <90% on air during the previous admission. Individuals received telemonitoring (second-generation system) via broadband link to a hospital-based care team. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measure was time to first hospital admission for an acute exacerbation. Secondary outcome measures were hospital admissions, general practitioner (GP) consultations and home visits by nurses, quality of life measured by EuroQol-5D and hospital anxiety and depression (HAD) scale, and self-efficacy score (Stanford). RESULTS: Median (IQR) number of days to first admission showed no difference between the two groups­77 (114) telemonitoring, 77.5 (61) control ( p=0.189). Hospital admission rate at 6 months increased (0.63 telemonitoring vs 0.32 control p=0.026). Home visits increased during telemonitoring; GP consultations were unchanged. Self-efficacy fell, while HAD depression score improved marginally during telemonitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Telemonitoring added to standard care did not alter time to next acute hospital admission, increased hospital admissions and home visits overall, and did not improve quality of life in chronic respiratory patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02180919 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Toward a model-based cognitive neuroscience of mind wandering.

People often "mind wander" during everyday tasks, temporarily losing track of time, place, or current task goals. In laboratory-based tasks, mind wandering is often associated with performance decrements in behavioral variables and changes in neural recordings. Such empirical associations provide descriptive accounts of mind wandering - how it affects ongoing task performance - but fail to provide true explanatory accounts - why it affects task performance. In this perspectives paper, we consider mind wandering as a neural state or process that affects the parameters of quantitative cognitive process models, which in turn affect observed behavioral performance. Our approach thus uses cognitive process models to bridge the explanatory divide between neural and behavioral data. We provide an overview of two general frameworks for developing a model-based cognitive neuroscience of mind wandering. The first approach uses neural data to segment observed performance into a discrete mixture of latent task-related and task-unrelated states, and the second regresses single-trial measures of neural activity onto structured trial-by-trial variation in the parameters of cognitive process models. We discuss the relative merits of the two approaches, and the research questions they can answer, and highlight that both approaches allow neural data to provide additional constraint on the parameters of cognitive models, which will lead to a more precise account of the effect of mind wandering on brain and behavior. We conclude by summarizing prospects for mind wandering as conceived within a model-based cognitive neuroscience framework, highlighting the opportunities for its continued study and the benefits that arise from using well-developed quantitative techniques to study abstract theoretical constructs.

eQTL of bronchial epithelial cells and bronchial alveolar lavage deciphers GWAS-identified asthma genes.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified various genes associated with asthma, yet, causal genes or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) remain elusive. We sought to dissect functional genes/SNPs for asthma by combining expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and GWASs. METHODS: Cis-eQTL analyses of 34 asthma genes were performed in cells from human bronchial epithelial biopsy (BEC, n = 107) and from bronchial alveolar lavage (BAL, n = 94). RESULTS: For TSLP-WDR36 region, rs3806932 (G allele protective against eosinophilic esophagitis) and rs2416257 (A allele associated with lower eosinophil counts and protective against asthma) were correlated with decreased expression of TSLP in BAL (P = 7.9 × 10(-11) and 5.4 × 10(-4) , respectively) and BEC, but not WDR36. Surprisingly, rs1837253 (consistently associated with asthma) showed no correlation with TSLP expression levels. For ORMDL3-GSDMB region, rs8067378 (G allele protective against asthma) was correlated with decreased expression of GSDMB in BEC and BAL (P = 1.3 × 10(-4) and 0.04) but not ORMDL3. rs992969 in the promoter region of IL33 (A allele associated with higher eosinophil counts and risk for asthma) was correlated with increased expression of IL33 in BEC (P = 1.3 × 10(-6) ) but not in BAL. CONCLUSIONS: Our study illustrates cell-type-specific regulation of the expression of asthma-related genes documenting SNPs in TSLP, GSDMB, IL33, HLA-DQB1, C11orf30, DEXI, CDHR3, and ZBTB10 affect asthma risk through cis-regulation of its gene expression. Whenever possible, disease-relevant tissues should be used for transcription analysis. SNPs in TSLP may affect asthma risk through up-regulating TSLP mRNA expression or protein secretion. Further functional studies are warranted.

Hepatitis B prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care: a review.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The likelihood of developing CHB is related to the age at which infection is acquired; the risk being lowest in adults and >90% in neonates whose mothers are hepatitis B e antigen positive. Treatment of CHB infection aims to clear HBV DNA and prevent the development of complications. There are currently seven drugs available for the treatment of CHB: five nucleos(t)ide analogues and two interferon-based therapies. Long-term treatment is often required, and the decision to treat is based on clinical assessment including the phase of CHB infection and the presence and extent of liver damage. A safe and effective HBV vaccine has been available since the early 1980s. Vaccination plays a central role in HBV prevention strategies worldwide, and a decline in the incidence and prevalence of HBV infection following the introduction of universal HBV vaccination programmes has been observed in many countries including the USA and parts of South East Asia and Europe. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with HBV vaccine +/- hepatitis B immunoglobulin is highly effective in preventing mother to child transmission and in preventing transmission following sharps injuries, sexual contact and other exposures to infected blood and body fluids. Transmission of HBV in the health care setting has become an increasingly rare event in developed nations. However, it remains a significant risk in developing countries reflecting the higher prevalence of CHB, limited access to HBV vaccination and PEP and a lack of adherence to standard infection control precautions.

Should healthcare workers be screened routinely for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus? A review of the evidence.

Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is considered endemic in the UK National Health Service (NHS), and routine MRSA screening of hospital inpatients has recently been introduced in both Scotland and England. The UK National Screening Committee states that public pressure for widening the eligibility criteria of a proposed screening programme should be anticipated and any related decisions scientifically justifiable. A literature review was conducted to examine whether MRSA screening in Scotland should be expanded to include the routine screening of healthcare workers (HCWs). There are no published prevalence studies reporting the overall MRSA carriage rate in HCWs in NHS hospitals. Estimates of HCW carriage from the worldwide literature vary widely depending on the country, hospital specialty and setting (endemic, non-endemic or outbreak). Recent studies conducted in endemic hospital settings report non-outbreak carriage rates of 0-15%. The role of HCW carriage in the transmission of MRSA is not well understood. Persistent carriage could act as a reservoir for infection and HCWs have been implicated as the source in a number of published outbreak reports. There are no published controlled trials examining the impact of routine HCW screening as an intervention in the prevention and control of MRSA infections in the endemic hospital setting. Most of the evidence for HCW screening comes from outbreak reports where the outbreak was brought to an end following the introduction of staff screening as part of a suite of infection control measures. Further research is required before a recommendation could be made to introduce routine MRSA screening of HCWs in the NHS in Scotland.

BsaXI/RFLP analysis of initial or selectively reamplified PCR product is unreliable in detecting the V617F mutation in JAK2.

INTRODUCTION: Laboratory testing for the presence of the V617F mutation in JAK2 has taken on great importance in the diagnosis of myeloproliferative disorders. The availability of a facile detection method would bring this testing into greater clinical use. The polymerase chain reaction coupled with restriction fragment length polymorphisms is such a facile method. BsaXI cleaves the normal sequence but does not cleave the sequence leading to the V617F mutation. METHODS: We have examined the use of selective PCR reamplification with BsaXI cleavage to enrich the fraction of V617F and compared the assignment of mutation with an established qPCR method. RESULTS: We found that BsaXI fails to completely cleave normal sequence PCR product, leading to false positivity, particularly at low mutation levels. We also found that first-round standard PCR introduces new mutations in which subsequent reamplification and digestion cannot distinguish from the V617F mutation. CONCLUSION: This combination of problems effectively combines to render selective reamplification and redigestion unsuitable for detecting low fractions of the V617F mutation.

Clinicopathologic characterization of naturally occurring diabetes mellitus in vervet monkeys.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a group of chronic metabolic diseases characterized by persistent fasting hyperglycemia, and it can be of either polygenic or monogenic origin. Animal models have played an important role in elucidating the pathophysiology of the polygenic Type 1 and type 2 DM forms; however, useful animal models of the monogenic forms do not exist. The authors describe 4 cases of naturally occurring DM in vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiops sabaeus), 1 of which has clinicopathologic findings consistent with type 2 DM, including persistent hyperglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, islet amyloidosis, and reduced islet insulin immunostaining. In contrast, the 3 remaining animals have clinicopathologic similarities to a monogenic form of the disease, including a lack of islet amyloidosis and hypertriglyceridemia, as well as normal islet insulin immunostaining. In addition, pedigree analysis conducted on one of these animals is consistent with either an autosomal dominant or mitochondrial inheritance pattern, which supports a monogenic form of DM. The authors thus hypothesize that a naturally occurring monogenic form of diabetes may occur in vervet monkeys, making them a potential animal model for future studies.

An outbreak of infection with Bacillus anthracis in injecting drug users in Scotland.

An investigation is currently underway to explore and control an outbreak of Bacillus anthracis among drug users (mainly injecting) in Scotland. Contaminated heroin or a contaminated cutting agent mixed with the heroin is considered to be the most likely source and vehicle of infection. Heroin users have been advised of the risk. The risk to the general public is regarded as very low.

Transcutaneous oximetry in clinical practice: consensus statements from an expert panel based on evidence.

Transcutaneous oximetry (PtcO2) is finding increasing application as a diagnostic tool to assess the peri-wound oxygen tension of wounds, ulcers, and skin flaps. It must be remembered that PtcO2 measures the oxygen partial pressure in adjacent areas of a wound and does not represent the actual partial pressure of oxygen within the wound, which is extremely difficult to perform. To provide clinical practice guidelines, an expert panel was convened with participants drawn from the transcutaneous oximetry workshop held on June 13, 2007, in Maui, Hawaii. Important consensus statements were (a) tissue hypoxia is defined as a PtcO2 <40 mm Hg; (b) in patients without vascular disease, PtcO2 values on the extremity increase to a value >100 mm Hg when breathing 100% oxygen under normobaric pressures; (c) patients with critical limb ischemia (ankle systolic pressure of < or =50 mm Hg or toe systolic pressure of < or =30 mm Hg) breathing air will usually have a PtcO2 <30 mm Hg; (d) low PtcO2 values obtained while breathing normobaric air can be caused by a diffusion barrier; (e) a PtcO2 <40 mm Hg obtained while breathing normobaric air is associated with a reduced likelihood of amputation healing; (f) if the baseline PtcO2 increases <10 mm Hg while breathing 100% normobaric oxygen, this is at least 68% accurate in predicting failure of healing post-amputation; (g) an increase in PtcO2 to >40 mm Hg during normobaric air breathing after revascularization is usually associated with subsequent healing, although the increase in PtcO2 may be delayed; (h) PtcO2 obtained while breathing normobaric air can assist in identifying which patients will not heal spontaneously.

High-performance infrared narrow-bandpass filters for the Indian National Satellite System meteorological instrument (INSAT-3D).

This paper describes the design and manufacture of a set of precision cooled (210 K) narrow-bandpass filters for the infrared imager and sounder on the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) INSAT-3D meteorological satellite. We discuss the basis for the choice of multilayer coating designs and materials for 21 differing filter channels, together with their temperature-dependence, thin film deposition technologies, substrate metrology, and environmental durability performance.

Polymorphisms in the CYP1B1 gene are associated with increased risk of prostate cancer.

CYP1B1 has been evaluated as a candidate gene for various cancers because of its function in activating environmental procarcinogens and catalysing the conversion of oestrogens to genotoxic catechol oestrogens. To test the hypothesis that genetic polymorphisms in the CYP1B1 gene may associate with the risk for prostate cancer (CaP), we compared the allele, genotype, and haplotype frequencies of 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of CYP1B1 among 159 hereditary prostate cancer (HPC) probands, 245 sporadic CaP cases, and 222 unaffected men. When each of the SNPs was analysed separately, marginally significant differences were observed for allele frequencies between sporadic cases and controls for three consecutive SNPs (-1001C/T, -263G/A, and -13C/T, P=0.04-0.07). Similarly, marginally significant differences between sporadic cases and controls in the frequency of variant allele carriers were observed for five consecutive SNPs (-1001C/T, -263G/A, -13C/T, +142C/G, and +355G/T, P=0.02-0.08). Interestingly, when the combination of these five SNPs was analysed using a haplotype approach, a larger difference was found (P=0.009). One frequent haplotype (C-G-C-C-G of -1001C/T, -263G/A, -13C/T, +142C/G, and +355G/T) was associated with an increased risk for CaP, while the other frequent haplotype (T-A-T-G-T) was associated with a decreased risk for CaP. These findings suggest that genetic polymorphisms in CYP1B1 may modify the risk for CaP.

A modified mordant technique for staining plant chromosomes.

The ability to produce ferric acetate in house has provided a new mordant source for use in Newcomer's fluid (6:3:1:1:1 isopropanol, propionic acid, acetone, petroleum ether, 1,4-dioxane) for species with small chromosomes. This method improves on one first published in 1970.

Kinase-deficient CMVpp65 triggers a CMVpp65 specific T-cell immune response in HLA-A*0201.Kb transgenic mice after DNA immunization.

CMVpp65, a candidate component of human cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccines, has phosphokinase (PK) activity that could affect vaccine safety. A mutated form of CMVpp65 substituting asparagine for lysine at the adenosine triphosphate (ATP)-binding site (CMVpp65mII) is kinase-deficient. Using DNA immunizations in a transgenic human leucocyte antigen (HLA)A*0201.Kb mouse model, the mutated CMVpp65 induced cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) immunity similarly to native CMVpp65. Murine CTL lines generated from these immunizations killed human cells either after sensitization with CMVpp65-specific peptides or after infection with either CMV-Towne strain or rvac-pp65. It is proposed that CMVpp65mII be evaluated in candidate vaccines for CMV.

Linkage and association of CYP17 gene in hereditary and sporadic prostate cancer.

Androgens are essential for prostate development, growth and maintenance and the association between androgen levels and prostate cancer is well established. Since the CYP17 gene encodes the enzyme cytochrome P450c17alpha, which mediates 17alpha-hydroxylase and 17,20-lyase activities in the androgen biosynthesis pathway, sequence variations in the gene and association with increased risk to prostate cancer has been studied. In particular, several groups have studied the association between a polymorphism in the 5' promoter region and prostate cancer using a population-based association approach. However, the results from these studies were inconclusive. To further study this polymorphism and its possible role in hereditary prostate cancer (HPC), we performed a genetic linkage analysis and family-based association analysis in 159 families, each of which contains at least 3 first-degree relatives with prostate cancer. In addition, we performed a population-based association analysis to compare the risk of this polymorphism to hereditary and sporadic prostate cancer in 159 HPC probands, 249 sporadic prostate cancer patients and 211 unaffected control subjects. Evidence for linkage at the CYP17 gene region was found in the total 159 HPC families (LOD = 1.3, p = 0.01, at marker D10S222). However, family-based association tests did not provide evidence for overtransmission of either allele of the CYP17 polymorphism to affected individuals in the HPC families. The allele and genotype frequencies of the polymorphism were not statistically different among the HPC probands, sporadic cases and unaffected control subjects. In conclusion, our results suggest that the CYP17 gene or other genes in the region may increase the susceptibility to prostate cancer in men; however, the polymorphism in the 5' promoter region has a minor role if any in increasing prostate cancer susceptibility in our study sample.

Linkage and association studies of prostate cancer susceptibility: evidence for linkage at 8p22-23.

Multiple lines of evidence have implicated the short arm of chromosome 8 as harboring genes important in prostate carcinogenesis. Although most of this evidence comes from the identification of frequent somatic alterations of 8p loci in prostate cancer cells (e.g., loss of heterozygosity), studies have also suggested a role for 8p genes in mediation of inherited susceptibility to prostate cancer. To further examine this latter possibility, we performed linkage analyses, in 159 pedigrees affected by hereditary prostate cancer (HPC), using 24 markers on the short arm of chromosome 8. In the complete set of families, evidence for prostate cancer linkage was found at 8p22-23, with a peak HLOD of 1.84 (P=.004), and an estimate of the proportion of families linked (alpha) of 0.14, at D8S1130. In the 79 families with average age at diagnosis >65 years, an allele-sharing LOD score of 2.64 (P=.0005) was observed, and six markers spanning a distance of 10 cM had LOD scores >2.0. Interestingly, the small number of Ashkenazi Jewish pedigrees (n=11) analyzed in this study contributed disproportionately to this linkage. Mutation screening in HPC probands and association analyses in case subjects (a group that includes HPC probands and unrelated case subjects) and unaffected control subjects were carried out for the putative prostate cancer-susceptibility gene, PG1, previously localized to the 8p22-23 region. No statistical differences in the allele, genotype, or haplotype frequencies of the SNPs or other sequence variants in the PG1 gene were observed between case and control subjects. However, case subjects demonstrated a trend toward higher homozygous rates of less-frequent alleles in all three PG1 SNPs, and overtransmission of a PG1 variant to case subjects was observed. In summary, these results provide evidence for the existence of a prostate cancer-susceptibility gene at 8p22-23. Evaluation of the PG1 gene and other candidate genes in this area appears warranted.