Trivariate Linear Regression and Machine Learning Prediction of Possible Roles of Efflux Transporters in Estimated Intestinal Permeability Values of 301 Disparate Chemicals.

A system for predicting apparent bidirectional permeability (Papp) across Caco-2 cells of diverse chemicals has been reported. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between in silico-generated Papp (from apical to basal side, Papp A to B) for 301 substances with diverse structures and a binary classification of the reported roles of efflux P-glycoprotein or breast cancer resistant protein. The in silico log(Papp A to B/Papp B to A) values of 70 substances with reported active efflux and 231 substances with no reported active efflux were significantly different (p < 0.01). The probabilities of active efflux transport estimated by trivariate analysis with log MW, log DpH 6.0, and log DpH 7.4 for the 70 active-efflux-positive compounds were higher than those of the other 231 substances (p < 0.01); the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.81. Further probability values estimated using a machine learning algorithm with 30 chemical descriptors as inputs yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.79. Using a secondary set of 52 efflux-positive and 48 efflux-negative medicines, the final trivariate-generated probabilities resulted in no significant differences between these binary groups (p = 0.09); however, the final machine learning model demonstrated a good area under the ROC curve of 0.79. Consequently, a combination of the previously established system for generating the permeability coefficients across intestinal monolayers (a continuous variable) and the currently proposed system for predicting the roles of additional active efflux (a binary classification) could prove useful; high accuracy was achieved by applying machine learning using in silico-generated chemical descriptors.

Prediction of permeability across intestinal cell monolayers for 219 disparate chemicals using in vitro experimental coefficients in a pH gradient system and in silico analyses by trivariate linear regressions and machine learning.

For medicines, the apparent membrane permeability coefficients (Papp) across human colorectal carcinoma cell line (Caco-2) monolayers under a pH gradient generally correlate with the fraction absorbed after oral intake. Furthermore, the in vitro Papp values of 29 industrial chemicals were found to have an inverse association with their reported no-observed effect levels for hepatotoxicity in rats. In the current study, we expanded our influx permeability predictions for the 90 previously investigated chemicals to both influx and efflux permeability predictions for 207 diverse primary compounds, along with those for 23 secondary compounds. Trivariate linear regression analysis found that the observed influx and efflux logPapp values determined by in vitro experiments significantly correlated with molecular weights and the octanol-water distribution coefficients at apical and basal pH levels (pH 6.0 and 7.4, respectively) (apical to basal, r = 0.76, n = 198; and basal to apical, r = 0.77, n = 202); the distribution coefficients were estimated in silico. Further, prediction accuracy was enhanced by applying a light gradient boosting machine learning system (LightGBM) to estimate influx and efflux logPapp values that incorporated 17 and 19 in silico chemical descriptors (r = 0.83-0.84, p < 0.001). The determination in vitro and/or prediction in silico of permeability coefficients across intestinal cell monolayers of a diverse range of industrial chemicals/food components/medicines could contribute to the safety evaluations of oral intakes of general chemicals in humans. Such new alternative methods could also reduce the need for animal testing during toxicity assessment.