Prediction of pancreatic cancer risk in patients with new-onset diabetes using a machine learning approach based on routine biochemical parameters.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine-learning model that can predict the risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in people with new-onset diabetes (NOD). METHODS: From a population-based sample of individuals with NOD aged >50 years, patients with pancreatic cancer-related diabetes (PCRD), defined as NOD followed by a PDAC diagnosis within 3 years, were included (n = 716). These PCRD patients were randomly matched in a 1:1 ratio with individuals having NOD. Data from Danish national health registries were used to develop a random forest model to distinguish PCRD from Type 2 diabetes. The model was based on age, gender, and parameters derived from feature engineering on trajectories of routine biochemical variables. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and relative risk scores. RESULTS: The most discriminative model included 20 features and achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.78 (CI:0.75-0.83). Compared to the general NOD population, the relative risk for PCRD was 20-fold increase for the 1 % of patients predicted by the model to have the highest cancer risk (3-year cancer risk of 12 % and sensitivity of 20 %). Age was the most discriminative single feature, followed by the rate of change in haemoglobin A1c and the latest plasma triglyceride level. When the prediction model was restricted to patients with PDAC diagnosed six months after diabetes diagnosis, the ROC-AUC was 0.74 (CI:0.69-0.79). CONCLUSION: In a population-based setting, a machine-learning model utilising information on age, sex and trajectories of routine biochemical variables demonstrated good discriminative ability between PCRD and Type 2 diabetes.

Risk of pancreatic cancer in people with new-onset diabetes: A Danish nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: New onset diabetes (NOD) in people 50 years or older may indicate underlying pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The cumulative incidence of PDAC among people with NOD remains uncertain on a population-based level. METHODS: This was a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study based on the Danish national health registries. We investigated the 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC in people 50 years or older with NOD. We further characterised people with pancreatic cancer-related diabetes (PCRD) in relation to demographic and clinical characteristics, including trajectories of routine biochemical parameters, using people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) as a comparator group. RESULTS: During a 21-year observation period, we identified 353,970 people with NOD. Among them, 2105 people were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years (0.59%, 95% CI [0.57-0.62%]). People with PCRD were older than people with T2D at diabetes diagnosis (median age 70.9 vs. 66.0 years (P < 0.001) and had a higher burden of comorbidities (P = 0.007) and more prescriptions of medications used to treat cardiovascular diseases (all P < 0.001). Distinct trajectories of HbA1c and plasma triglycerides were observed in PCRD vs. T2D, with group differences observed for up to three years prior to NOD diagnosis for HbA1c and up to two years for plasma triglyceride levels. CONCLUSIONS: The 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC is approximately 0.6% among people 50 years or older with NOD in a nationwide population-based setting. Compared to T2D, people with PCRD are characterised by distinct demographic and clinical profiles, including distinctive trajectories of plasma HbA1c and triglyceride levels.

Promoter hypermethylation of SFRP1 as a prognostic and potentially predictive blood-based biomarker in patients with localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Introduction: Current prognostic blood-based biomarkers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are limited. Recently, promoter hypermethylation of SFRP1 (phSFRP1) has been linked to poor prognosis in patients with gemcitabine-treated stage IV PDAC. This study explores the effects of phSFRP1 in patients with lower stage PDAC. Methods: Based on a bisulfite treatment process, the promoter region of the SFRP1 gene was analyzed with methylation-specific PCR. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank tests, and generalized linear regression analysis were used to assess restricted mean survival time survival at 12 and 24 months. Results: The study included 211 patients with stage I-II PDAC. The median overall survival of patients with phSFRP1 was 13.1 months, compared to 19.6 months in patients with unmethylated SFRP1 (umSFRP1). In adjusted analysis, phSFRP1 was associated with a loss of 1.15 months (95%CI -2.11, -0.20) and 2.71 months (95%CI -2.71, -0.45) of life at 12 and 24 months, respectively. There was no significant effect of phSFRP1 on disease-free or progression-free survival. In stage I-II PDAC, patients with phSFRP1 have worse prognoses than patients with umSFRP1. Discussion: Results could indicate that the poor prognosis may be caused by reduced benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. SFRP1 may help guide the clinician and be a possible target for epigenetically modifying drugs.

Cell-Free DNA Methylation as Blood-Based Biomarkers for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma-A Literature Update.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma has a horrible prognosis, which is partly due to difficulties in diagnosing the disease in an early stage. Additional blood-born biomarkers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma are needed. Epigenetic modifications, as changes in DNA methylation, is a fundamental part of carcinogenesis. The aim of this paper is to do an update on cell-free DNA methylation as blood-based biomarkers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The current literature including our studies clearly indicates that cell-free DNA methylation has the potential as blood-based diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. However, still no clinical applicable biomarker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma based on DNA methylation do exist. Further well-designed validation studies are needed.

Validation of SFRP1 Promoter Hypermethylation in Plasma as a Prognostic Marker for Survival and Gemcitabine Effectiveness in Patients with Stage IV Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

No reliable predictive blood-based biomarkers are available for determining survival from pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This combined discovery and validation study examines promoter hypermethylation (ph) of secreted frizzled-related protein 1 (SFRP1) in plasma-derived cell-free DNA as an independent prognostic marker for survival and Gemcitabine effectiveness in patients with stage IV PDAC. We conducted methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction analysis of the promoter region of the SFRP1 gene, based on bisulfite treatment. Survival was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, and Cox regression. The discovery cohort included 40 patients, 25 receiving Gem. Gem-treated patients with phSFRP1 had a shorter median overall survival (mOS) (4.4 months) than unmethylated patients (11.6 months). Adjusted Cox-regression yielded a hazard rate (HR) of 3.48 (1.39-8.70). The validation cohort included 58 Gem-treated patients. Patients with phSFRP1 had a shorter mOS (3.2 months) than unmethylated patients (6.3 months). Adjusted Cox regression yielded an HR of 3.53 (1.85-6.74). In both cohorts, phSFRP1 was associated with poorer survival in Gem-treated patients. This may indicate that tumors with phSFRP1 are more aggressive and less sensitive to Gem treatment. This knowledge may facilitate tailored treatment of patients with stage IV PDAC. Further studies are planned to examine phSFRP1 in more intensive chemotherapy regimens.

Treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer with irreversible electroporation - a Danish single center study of safety and feasibility.

OBJECTIVES: Irreversible electroporation (IRE) is a novel non-thermal ablative technique applied in the treatment of unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). This paper reports on the initial experience with IRE of unresectable LAPC in our institution. METHODS: From October 2013 to March 2018, patients with unresectable LAPC referred for IRE at the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Aalborg University Hospital, were considered for inclusion in the study. Ninety-day morbidity, 30-day mortality, pain score, length of hospital stay (LOS) and overall survival (OS) were recorded. RESULTS: We included 33 patients receiving 40 IRE ablations in total. The median visual analogue scale (VAS)-score was four (range 0-10) two hours after IRE, and one (range 0-8) eight hours after IRE. The median LOS was one day (range 1-13 days). Post-procedural complications occurred in 21 of 40 ablations (53%), of which eight (20%) were major (Clavien-Dindo grade III or more). A proportion of the observed complications might be attributed to disease progression and not IRE per se. Although not statistically significant, we observed increased severity of complications in tumors above 3.5 cm. The 30-day mortality was 5% (2/40). The median OS was 10.7 months (range 0.6-53.8 months) from the initial IRE procedure, and 18.5 months (range 4.9-65.8 months) from time of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: In our institution, IRE seems as a feasible consolidative treatment of unresectable LAPC with an acceptable safety profile. The oncological outcome of IRE in patients with unresectable LAPC is to be further evaluated in a planned phase 2 clinical trial (CHEMOFIRE-2).

Cell-free DNA promoter hypermethylation in plasma as a predictive marker for survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Few prognostic biomarkers are available for pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study is to examine the correlation between the survival of pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients and hypermethylated genes in plasma-derived cell-free DNA. METHODS: Consecutive patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were prospectively included and staged according to the TNM classification. Methylation-specific PCR of 28 genes was conducted. A survival prediction model independent of cancer stage and stage-specific survival prediction models were developed by multivariable Cox regression analysis using backward stepwise selection. RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were included. Patients with more than 10 hypermethylated genes had a HR of 2.03 (95% CI; 1.15-3.57) compared to patients with fewer hypermethylated genes. Three survival prediction models were developed: Total group; (American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA)=3, GSTP1, SFRP2, BNC1, SFRP1, TFPI2, and WNT5A) Risk groups 2, 3 and 4 had a HR of 2.65 (95% CI; 1.24-5.66), 4.34 (95% CI; 1.98-9.51) and 21.19 (95% CI; 8.61-52.15), respectively, compared to risk group 1. Stage I-II; (ASA=3, SFRP2, and MESTv2) Risk groups 2, 3 and 4 had a HR of 4.83 (95% CI; 2.01-11.57), 9.12 (95% CI; 2.18-38.25) and 70.90 (95% CI; 12.63-397.96), respectively, compared to risk group 1. Stage IV; (BMP3, NPTX2, SFRP1, and MGMT) Risk group 2 had a HR of 5.23 (95% CI; 2.13-12.82) compared to risk group 1. CONCLUSION: Prediction models based on cell-free DNA hypermethylation stratified pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients into risk groups according to survival. The models have the potential to work as prognostic biomarkers. However, further validation of the results is required to substantiate the findings.

Promoter hypermethylation in plasma-derived cell-free DNA as a prognostic marker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma staging.

Correct staging of pancreatic cancer is paramount, as treatment is stage specific. However, minimally invasive tools to facilitate staging are lacking. DNA promoter hypermethylation is a hallmark of cancer. The aim of this study is to evaluate promoter hypermethylation in cell-free DNA as a prognostic marker for stage classification of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Consecutive patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were prospectively included. Plasma samples were obtained before diagnostic work-up and treatment. Patients were staged according to the TNM classification. Methylation-specific PCR of 28 genes was performed. Prognostic prediction models for staging of pancreatic adenocarcinoma were developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis using stepwise backwards elimination. Ninety-five patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were included. The mean number of hypermethylated genes was identical for stage I, II and III disease (7.09 (95% CI; 5.51-8.66), 7.00 (95% CI; 5.93-8.07) and 6.77 (95% CI; 5.08-8.46)), respectively, and highly significantly different from stage IV disease (10.24 (95% CI; 8.88-11.60)). The prediction model (SEPT9v2, SST, ALX4, CDKN2B, HIC1, MLH1, NEUROG1, and BNC1) enabled the differentiation of stage IV from stage I-III disease (AUC of 0.87 (cut point 0.55; sensitivity 74%, specificity 87%)). Model (MLH1, SEPT9v2, BNC1, ALX4, CDKN2B, NEUROG1, WNT5A, and TFPI2) enabled the differentiation of stage I-II from stage III-IV disease (AUC of 0.82 (cut point 0.66; sensitivity 73%, specificity 80%)). Cell-free DNA promoter hypermethylation has the potential to be blood-based prognostic markers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, as panels of hypermethylated genes enables the differentiation according to cancer stage. However, further validation is required.

Cell-free DNA promoter hypermethylation in plasma as a diagnostic marker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer has a 5-year survival rate of only 5-7%. Difficulties in detecting pancreatic cancer at early stages results in the high mortality and substantiates the need for additional diagnostic tools. Surgery is the only curative treatment and unfortunately only possible in localized tumours. A diagnostic biomarker for pancreatic cancer will have a major impact on patient survival by facilitating early detection and the possibility for curative treatment. DNA promoter hypermethylation is a mechanism of early carcinogenesis, which can cause inactivation of tumour suppressor genes. The aim of this study was to examine promoter hypermethylation in a panel of selected genes from cell-free DNA, as a diagnostic marker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Patients with suspected or biopsy-verified pancreatic cancer were included prospectively and consecutively. Patients with chronic/acute pancreatitis were included as additional benign control groups. Based on an optimized accelerated bisulfite treatment protocol, methylation-specific PCR of a 28 gene panel was performed on plasma samples. A diagnostic prediction model was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis using backward stepwise elimination. RESULTS: Patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (n = 95), chronic pancreatitis (n = 97) and acute pancreatitis (n = 59) and patients screened, but negative for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (n = 27), were included. The difference in mean number of methylated genes in the cancer group (8.41 (95% CI 7.62-9.20)) vs the total control group (4.74 (95% CI 4.40-5.08)) was highly significant (p < 0.001). A diagnostic prediction model (age >65, BMP3, RASSF1A, BNC1, MESTv2, TFPI2, APC, SFRP1 and SFRP2) had an area under the curve of 0.86 (sensitivity 76%, specificity 83%). The model performance was independent of cancer stage. CONCLUSIONS: Cell-free DNA promoter hypermethylation has the potential to be a diagnostic marker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma and differentiate between malignant and benign pancreatic disease. This study brings us closer to a clinical useful diagnostic marker for pancreatic cancer, which is urgently needed. External validation is, however, required before the test can be applied in the clinic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02079363.

DNA Hypermethylation as a Blood-Based Marker for Pancreatic Cancer: A Literature Review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim is to review genes aberrantly methylated in pancreatic cancer. This review focuses on DNA promoter hypermethylation in plasma and serum to describe the most promising genes that may be useful as minimally invasive diagnostic blood-based markers for pancreatic cancer. METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was performed using the PubMed and EMBASE databases. The following MeSH terms and free text were used: pancreatic disease, pancreatic cancer, pancreatic neoplasm, methylation, DNA hypermethylation, CG rich sequence, CpG island, cell-free DNA, blood, plasma, serum, fluids, and secretions. RESULTS: In total, 720 articles were found. Eight studies on cell-free DNA promoter hypermethylation in plasma or serum and 2 studies on hypermethylation in whole blood/leukocyte DNA from patients with pancreatic cancer were identified. The search for a hypermethylated marker in cell-free DNA is characterized by a few small studies lacking well-defined control groups. No single gene has been identified as a diagnostic marker. CONCLUSION: Because of insufficient power, none of the genes examined have the potential to work as an individual diagnostic marker, suggesting that a panel of several genes is needed. Further research is warranted before a blood-based diagnostic marker for pancreatic cancer based on promoter hypermethylation can be applied clinically.

[Foetal reduction--a retrospective survey]. / Fosterreduktion--en retrospektiv opgørelse.

INTRODUCTION: Foetal reduction is a procedure by which one or more foetuses in a multi-foetal pregnancy are terminated selectively by an intracardial injection of potassium chloride. There is no Danish study regarding the outcomes after this procedure. The purpose of this study was to calculate results of the foetal reductions performed at Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study comprised retrospective calculation of 70 foetal reductions performed from 5 June 2000 to 15 June 2007. RESULTS: In all, 44 multiple pregnancies were reduced to two foetuses, which resulted in two total foetal losses (5%), one stillborn and 82 live born, among which two died perinatally. The median gestational age was 255 days (36 weeks and three days), five children were born before week 32 (6%), the mean birth weight among live born was 2,390 +/- 578 grams (mean +/- standard deviation) and 20 were growth restricted (24%). Among 16 pregnancies reduced from two fetuses to one, and ten reduced from three to one, neither miscarriages nor stillbirths were observed. One gave birth before week 32 and the mean birth weight was 3,041 +/- 462 grams. There were no cases of growth restriction. CONCLUSION: The results from Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, correspond well with the international standard. By reducing to a singleton instead of twins, better results are achieved regarding gestational length, birth weight and growth restriction.