Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Modeling the Role of Weather and Pilgrimage Variables on Dengue Fever Incidence in Saudi Arabia.

The first case of dengue fever (DF) in Saudi Arabia appeared in 1993 but by 2022, DF incidence was 11 per 100,000 people. Climatologic and population factors, such as the annual Hajj, likely contribute to DF's epidemiology in Saudi Arabia. In this study, we assess the impact of these variables on the DF burden of disease in Saudi Arabia and we attempt to create robust DF predictive models. Using 10 years of DF, weather, and pilgrimage data, we conducted a bivariate analysis investigating the role of weather and pilgrimage variables on DF incidence. We also compared the abilities of three different predictive models. Amongst weather variables, temperature and humidity had the strongest associations with DF incidence, while rainfall showed little to no significant relationship. Pilgrimage variables did not have strong associations with DF incidence. The random forest model had the highest predictive ability (R2 = 0.62) when previous DF data were withheld, and the ARIMA model was the best (R2 = 0.78) when previous DF data were incorporated. We found that a nonlinear machine-learning model incorporating temperature and humidity variables had the best prediction accuracy for DF, regardless of the availability of previous DF data. This finding can inform DF early warning systems and preparedness in Saudi Arabia.

Impacts of the 2021 heat dome on emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and health system operations in three hospitals in Seattle, Washington.

Objectives: Extreme heat events (EHEs) are associated with excess healthcare utilization but specific impacts on emergency department (ED) operations and throughput are unknown. In 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced an unprecedented heat dome that resulted in substantial regional morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine its impact on ED utilization, unplanned hospitalization, and hospital operations in a large academic healthcare system. Methods: Retrospective electronic medical records from three Seattle-area hospitals were used to compare healthcare utilization during the EHE compared to a pre-event reference period within the same month. Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the association between EHE exposure and ED visits and hospitalizations. Metrics of ED crowding for the EHE were compared to the reference period using Student's t-tests and chi-squared tests. Additionally, multivariable Poisson regression was used to identify risk factors for heat-related illness and hospital admission. Results: Interrupted time series analysis showed an increase of 21.7 ED visits per day (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.7, 28.6) and 9.9 unplanned hospitalizations per day (95% CI = 8.3, 11.5) during the EHE, as compared to the reference period. ED crowding and process measures also displayed significant increases, becoming the most pronounced by day 3 of the EHE; the EHE was associated with delays in ED length of stay of 1.0 h (95% CI = 0.4, 1.6) compared to the reference period. Higher incidence rate ratios for heat-related illness were observed for patients who were older (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01,1.03), female (IRR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.06, 2.04), or who had pre-existing diabetes (IRR = 3.19; 95% CI = 1.47, 6.94). Conclusions: The 2021 heat dome was associated with a significant increase in healthcare utilization including ED visits and unplanned hospitalizations. Substantial impacts on ED and hospital throughput were also noted. These findings contribute to the understanding of the role extreme heat events play on impacting patient outcomes and healthcare system function.

Introduction to JAMA Climate Change and Health Series.

This JAMA Insights introduces the new series on climate change intended to inform readers about the associations between climate change and health.

Too hot to thrive: a qualitative inquiry of community perspectives on the effect of high ambient temperature on postpartum women and neonates in Kilifi, Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To understand community perspectives on the effects of high ambient temperature on the health and wellbeing of neonates, and impacts on post-partum women and infant care in Kilifi. DESIGN: Qualitative study using key informant interviews, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with pregnant and postpartum women (n = 22), mothers-in-law (n = 19), male spouses (n = 20), community health volunteers (CHVs) (n = 22) and stakeholders from health and government ministries (n = 16). SETTINGS: We conducted our research in Kilifi County in Kenya's Coast Province. The area is largely rural and during summer, air temperatures can reach 37˚C and rarely go below 23˚C. DATA ANALYSIS: Data were analyzed in NVivo 12, using both inductive and deductive approaches. RESULTS: High ambient temperature is perceived by community members to have direct and indirect health pathways in pregnancy and postpartum periods, including on the neonates. The direct impacts include injuries on the neonate's skin and in the mouth, leading to discomfort and affecting breastfeeding and sleeping. Participants described babies as "having no peace". Heat effects were perceived to be amplified by indoor air pollution and heat from indoor cooking fires. Community members believed that exclusive breastfeeding was not practical in conditions of extreme heat because it lowered breast milk production, which was, in turn, linked to a low scarcity of food and time spend by mothers away from their neonates performing household chores. Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) was also negatively affected. Participants reported that postpartum women took longer to heal in the heat, were exhausted most of the time and tended not to attend postnatal care. CONCLUSIONS: High ambient temperatures affect postpartum women and their neonates through direct and indirect pathways. Discomfort makes it difficult for the mother to care for the baby. Multi-sectoral policies and programs are required to mitigate the negative impacts of high ambient temperatures on maternal and neonatal health in rural Kilifi and similar settings.

Extramural US Federal Research Grants For Health Outcomes Associated With Climate Change Inadequate, Too Narrow In Focus.

Climate change causes and exacerbates disease, creates and worsens health disparities, disrupts health care delivery, and imposes a significant disease burden in the US and globally. Critical knowledge gaps hinder an evidence-based response and are perpetuated by scarce federal research funds. We identified and described extramural US federal research funding (that is, grants provided to organizations and institutions outside of federal agencies) that both addressed health outcomes associated with climate change and was awarded between 2010 and 2020. During this eleven-year period, 102 grants met our criteria, totaling approximately $58.7 million, or approximately $5.3 million per year (2020 adjusted US dollars). Federal investments in climate change and health research during this period failed to address the breadth of climate-sensitive exposures, health outcomes, and impacts on vulnerable populations. Moving forward, in addition to increasing investment in climate and health research across all known hazards, critical attention should be placed on vulnerable populations and health equity. To achieve this, increased federal research coordination and cooperation are needed, as well as a mechanism to track this funding.

Process and outputs from a community codesign workshop on reducing impact of heat exposure on pregnant and postpartum women and newborns in Kilifi, Kenya.

Background: Ambient heat exposure is increasing due to climate change and is known to affect the health of pregnant and postpartum women, and their newborns. Evidence for the effectiveness of interventions to prevent heat health outcomes in east Africa is limited. Codesigning and integrating local-indigenous and conventional knowledge is essential to develop effective adaptation to climate change. Methods: Following qualitative research on heat impacts in a community in Kilifi, Kenya, we conducted a two-day codesign workshop to inform a set of interventions to reduce the impact of heat exposure on maternal and neonatal health. Participants were drawn from a diverse group of purposively selected influencers, implementers, policy makers, service providers and community members. The key domains of focus for the discussion were: behavioral practices, health facilities and health system factors, home environment, water scarcity, and education and awareness. Following the discussions and group reflections, data was transcribed, coded and emerging intervention priorities ranked based on the likelihood of success, cost effectiveness, implementation feasibility, and sustainability. Results: Twenty one participants participated in the codesign discussions. Accessibility to water supplies, social behavior-change campaigns, and education were ranked as the top three most sustainable and effective interventions with the highest likelihood of success. Prior planning and contextualizing local set-up, cross-cultural and religious practices and budget considerations are important in increasing the chances of a successful outcome in codesign. Conclusion: Codesign of interventions on heat exposure with diverse groups of participants is feasible to identify and prioritize adaptation interventions. The codesign workshop was used as an opportunity to build capacity among facilitators and participants as well as to explore interventions to address the impact of heat exposure on pregnant and postpartum women, and newborns. We successfully used the codesign model in co-creating contextualized socio-culturally acceptable interventions to reduce the risk of heat on maternal and neonatal health in the context of climate change. Our interventions can be replicated in other similar areas of Africa and serve as a model for co-designing heat-health adaptation.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

A novel climate and health decision support platform: Approach, outputs, and policy considerations.

BACKGROUND: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasingly apparent and the need for adaptation activities is pressing. Risks, drivers, and decision contexts vary significantly by location, and high-resolution, place-based information is needed to support decision analysis and risk reduction efforts at scale. METHODS: Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework, we developed a causal pathway linking heat with a composite outcome of heat-related morbidity and mortality. We used an existing systematic literature review to identify variables for inclusion and the authors' expert judgment to determine variable combinations in a hierarchical model. We parameterized the model for Washington state using observational (1991-2020 and June 2021 extreme heat event) and scenario-driven temperature projections (2036-2065), compared outputs against relevant existing indices, and analyzed sensitivity to model structure and variable parameterization. We used descriptive statistics, maps, visualizations and correlation analyses to present results. RESULTS: The Climate and Health Risk Tool (CHaRT) heat risk model contains 25 primary hazard, exposure, and vulnerability variables and multiple levels of variable combinations. The model estimates population-weighted and unweighted heat health risk for selected periods and displays estimates on an online visualization platform. Population-weighted risk is historically moderate and primarily limited by hazard, increasing significantly during extreme heat events. Unweighted risk is helpful in identifying lower population areas that have high vulnerability and hazard. Model vulnerability correlate well with existing vulnerability and environmental justice indices. DISCUSSION: The tool provides location-specific insights into risk drivers and prioritization of risk reduction interventions including population-specific behavioral interventions and built environment modifications. Insights from causal pathways linking climate-sensitive hazards and adverse health impacts can be used to generate hazard-specific models to support adaptation planning.

After the fire: A qualitative study of the role of long-term recovery organizations in addressing rural communities' post-wildfire needs.

U.S. wildfire activity has increased over the past several decades, disrupting the systems and infrastructure that support community health and resilience. As the cumulative burden of wildfire damage is projected to increase, understanding an effective community recovery process is critically important. Through qualitative interviews with leaders of long-term recovery organizations (LTROs), a key component of wildfire recovery, we explored barriers and facilitators to LTROs' ability to support post-wildfire needs among rural communities. Between February-May 2022, we conducted surveys and semi-structured interviews with 18 leaders from six LTROs serving rural communities in Washington, Oregon, and California impacted by wildfires between 2015-2020. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Culture of Health Framework informed the semi-structured interview guide and a priori codebook, to examine LTROs' ability to address post-wildfire community needs from a health equity perspective. Additional codes were added through an inductive approach, and emerging themes were identified. Our findings indicate that LTROs face many barriers in addressing community needs post-wildfire, including the policies governing access to and the slow arrival of recovery resources, the intertwined nature of community economic health and built environment restoration, and the challenge of forming a functional LTRO structure. However, participants also identified facilitators of LTROs' work, including the ability of LTROs and their government partners to adapt policies and procedures, and close collaboration with other community organizations. Factors both internal and external to the community and LTROs' organizational characteristics influence their ability to address community needs, essential to health, post-wildfire. This study's findings suggest the need for policy improvements to promote more equitable recovery resource access, that economic recovery should be a core LTRO function, and that recovery planning should be incorporated into community disaster preparedness activities. Future research should focus on LTROs' role in other contexts and in response to other disasters.

Survey of extreme heat public health preparedness plans and response activities in the most populous jurisdictions in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly frequent and intense extreme heat events (EHEs) are indicative of climate change impacts, and urban areas' social and built environments increase their risk for health consequences. Heat action plans (HAPs) are a strategy to bolster municipal EHE preparedness. The objective of this research is to characterize municipal interventions to EHEs and compare U.S. jurisdictions with and without formal heat action plans. METHODS: An online survey was sent to 99 U.S. jurisdictions with populations > 200,000 between September 2021 and January 2022. Summary statistics were calculated to describe the proportion of total jurisdictions, as well as jurisdictions with and without HAPs and in different geographies that reported engagement in extreme heat preparedness and response activities. RESULTS: Thirty-eight (38.4%) jurisdictions responded to the survey. Of those respondents, twenty-three (60.5%) reported the development of a HAP, of which 22 (95.7%) reported plans for opening cooling centers. All respondents reported conducting heat-related risk communications; however, communication approaches focused on passive, technology-dependent mechanisms. While 75.7% of jurisdictions reported having developed a definition for an EHE, less than two-thirds of responding jurisdictions reported any of the following activities: conducting heat-related surveillance (61.1%), implementing provisions for power outages (53.1%), increasing access to fans or air conditioners (48.4%), developing heat vulnerability maps (43.2%), or evaluating activities (34.2%). There were only two statistically significant (p ≥ .05) differences in the prevalence of heat-related activities between jurisdictions with and without a written HAP, possibly attributable to a relatively small sample size: surveillance and having a definition of extreme heat. CONCLUSIONS: Jurisdictions can strengthen their extreme heat preparedness by expanding their consideration of at-risk populations to include communities of color, conducting formal evaluations of their responses, and by bridging the gap between the populations determined to be most at-risk and the channels of communication designed to reach them.

Planning to Reduce the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat: A Content Analysis of Heat Action Plans in Local United States Jurisdictions.

Objectives. To examine commonalities and gaps in the content of local US heat action plans (HAPs) designed to decrease the adverse health effects of extreme heat. Methods. We used content analysis to identify common strategies and gaps in extreme heat preparedness among written HAPs in the United States from jurisdictions that serve municipalities with more than 200 000 residents. We reviewed, coded, and analyzed plans to assess the prevalence of key components and strategies. Results. All 21 plans evaluated incorporated data on activation triggers, heat health messaging and risk communication, cooling centers, surveillance activities, and agency coordination, and 95% incorporated information on outreach to at-risk populations. Gaps existed in the specific applications of these broad strategies. Conclusions. Practice-based recommendations as well as future areas of research should focus on increasing targeted strategies for at-risk individuals and expanding the use of surveillance data outside of situational awareness. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(5):559-567. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307217).

Examining the Optimal Placement of Cooling Centers to Serve Populations at High Risk of Extreme Heat Exposure in 81 US Cities.

OBJECTIVE: Although extreme heat can impact the health of anyone, certain groups are disproportionately affected. In urban settings, cooling centers are intended to reduce heat exposure by providing air-conditioned spaces to the public. We examined the characteristics of populations living near cooling centers and how well they serve areas with high social vulnerability. METHODS: We identified 1402 cooling centers in 81 US cities from publicly available sources and analyzed markers of urban heat and social vulnerability in relation to their locations. Within each city, we developed cooling center access areas, defined as the geographic area within a 0.5-mile walk from a center, and compared sociodemographic characteristics of populations living within versus outside the access areas. We analyzed results by city and geographic region to evaluate climate-relevant regional differences. RESULTS: Access to cooling centers differed among cities, ranging from 0.01% (Atlanta, Georgia) to 63.2% (Washington, DC) of the population living within an access area. On average, cooling centers were in areas that had higher levels of social vulnerability, as measured by the number of people living in urban heat islands, annual household income below poverty, racial and ethnic minority status, low educational attainment, and high unemployment rate. However, access areas were less inclusive of adult populations aged ≥65 years than among populations aged <65 years. CONCLUSION: Given the large percentage of individuals without access to cooling centers and the anticipated increase in frequency and severity of extreme heat events, the current distribution of centers in the urban areas that we examined may be insufficient to protect individuals from the adverse health effects of extreme heat, particularly in the absence of additional measures to reduce risk.

Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs in US State and Territorial Health Agencies.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize US State and Territorial Health Agencies' (S/THA) climate change adaptation activities and priorities to facilitate appropriate investments, skills development, and support that will strengthen health sector capacity in response to a changing climate. DESIGN: In 2021, we conducted an online survey of S/THA staff requesting information on current activities related to climate change and health, the state of climate and health programming, and anticipated needs and priorities for assistance. We analyzed survey results using descriptive statistics. SETTING: US State and Territorial Health Agencies. PARTICIPANTS: We received responses from 41 of 59 S/THAs (69.5%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Implementation of S/THA climate and health programs (CHPs); engagement in climate and health activities; maintenance of hazard early warning systems and action plans; employment of climate and health communications strategies; capability to assess risks and adaptation needs related to various climate-sensitive conditions; priorities and plans for climate change adaptation in relation to climate-sensitive health risks; climate change adaptation-related partnerships and collaborations; requests of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) for advancing climate change adaptation activities; and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change work. RESULTS: Nineteen S/THAs reported having CHPs, the majority of which are federally funded. On average, S/THAs without CHPs reported engagement in fewer climate and health activities and more early warning activities. The S/THAs reported the highest levels of concerns regarding non-vector-borne infectious disease (66%), vector-borne infectious diseases (61%), and extreme heat (61%) hazards. CONCLUSIONS: As S/THAs with CHPs report substantially greater climate and health capacity than those without, additional federal and state investments (eg, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects [BRACE]) are urgently needed to catalyze climate and health capacity.

Public Health Preparedness for Extreme Heat Events.

Heat is a dangerous hazard that causes acute heat illness, chronic disease exacerbations, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and a range of injuries. Risks are highest during extreme heat events (EHEs), which challenge the capacity of health systems and other critical infrastructure. EHEs are becoming more frequent and severe, and climate change is driving an increasing proportion of heat-related mortality, necessitating more investment in health protection. Climate-resilient health systems are better positioned for EHEs, and EHE preparedness is a form of disaster risk reduction. Preparedness activities commonly take the form of heat action plans (HAPs), with many examples at various administrative scales. HAP activities can be divided into primary prevention, most important in the pre-event phase; secondary prevention, key to risk reduction early in an EHE;and tertiary prevention, important later in the event phase. After-action reports and other postevent evaluation activities are central to adaptive management of this climate-sensitive hazard.