Urinary Marker Profiles in Heart Failure with Reduced Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest different causes of renal dysfunction between heart failure with reduced (HFrEF) versus preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We therefore studied a wide range of urinary markers reflecting different nephron segments in heart failure patients. METHODS: In 2070, in chronic heart failure patients, we measured several established and upcoming urinary markers reflecting different nephron segments. RESULTS: Mean age was 70 ± 12 years, 74% was male and 81% (n = 1677) had HFrEF. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was lower in patients with HFpEF (56 ± 23 versus 63 ± 23 ml/min/1.73 m2, P = 0.001). Patients with HFpEF had significantly higher values of NGAL (58.1 [24.0-124.8] versus 28.1 [14.6-66.9] µg/gCr, P < 0.001) and KIM-1 (2.28 [1.49-4.37] versus 1.79 [0.85-3.49] µg/gCr, P = 0.001). These differences were more pronounced in patients with an eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73m2. CONCLUSIONS: HFpEF patients showed more evidence of tubular damage and/or dysfunction compared with HFrEF patients, in particular when glomerular function was preserved.

Trajectories of renal biomarkers and new-onset heart failure in the general population: Findings from the PREVEND study.

AIMS: Renal dysfunction is one of the most critical risk factors for developing heart failure (HF). However, the association between repeated measures of renal function and incident HF remains unclear. Therefore, this study investigated the longitudinal trajectories of urinary albumin excretion (UAE) and serum creatinine and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory analysis, we estimated trajectories of UAE and serum creatinine in 6881 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause death during the 11-years of follow-up. Most participants had stable low UAE or serum creatinine. Participants with persistently higher UAE or serum creatinine were older, more often men, and more often had comorbidities, such as diabetes, a previous myocardial infarction or dyslipidaemia. Participants with persistently high UAE had a higher risk of new-onset HF or all-cause mortality, whereas stable serum creatinine trajectories showed a linear association for new-onset HF and no association with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Our population-based study identified different but often stable longitudinal patterns of UAE and serum creatinine. Patients with persistently worse renal function, such as higher UAE or serum creatinine, were at a higher risk of HF or mortality.

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Derived Left Ventricular Eccentricity Index and Right Ventricular Mass Measurements Predict Outcome in Children with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is associated with increased right ventricular (RV) afterload, affecting RV remodeling and RV performance, a major determinant of outcome in PAH-patients. In children with PAH, treatment strategy is guided by risk stratification where noninvasive prognosticators are highly needed. The prognostic value of RV characteristics derived by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) has been scarcely studied in pediatric PAH. We aimed to identify CMR-derived morphometric and functional RV characteristics prognostic for outcome in children with PAH. From the Dutch National cohort, thirty-eight children with either idiopathic/heritable PAH (IPAH/HPAH) or PAH associated with congenital heart disease (PAH-CHD), who underwent CMR, were included (median (interquartile range) [IQR] age 13.0 years (10.8-15.0), 66% females). Patients had severe PAH, characterized by their World Health Organization Functional Class, increased N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high pulmonary arterial pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance index at time of CMR. RV-ejection fraction (RVEF), indexed RV-mass (RVMi), the ratio between RV and LV mass (RVM/LVM-ratio) and left ventricular eccentricity index (LVEI) all correlated with transplant-free survival from time of CMR. These correlations could not be confirmed in the PAH-CHD group. This study shows that CMR-derived measures reflecting RV function and remodeling (LVEI, RVMi, RVM/LVM-ratio, RVEF) predict transplant-free survival in children with IPAH/HPAH and may be included in risk stratification scores in pediatric PAH.

Clinical utility of the 4S-AF scheme in predicting progression of atrial fibrillation: data from the RACE V study.

AIMS: The recent 4S-AF (scheme proposed by the 2020 ESC AF guidelines to address stroke risk, symptom severity, severity of AF burden and substrate of AF to provide a structured phenotyping of AF patients in clinical practice to guide therapy and assess prognosis) scheme has been proposed as a structured scheme to characterize patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to assess whether the 4S-AF scheme predicts AF progression in patients with self-terminating AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed 341 patients with self-terminating AF included in the well-phenotyped Reappraisal of Atrial Fibrillation: Interaction between HyperCoagulability, Electrical remodelling, and Vascular Destabilization in the Progression of AF (RACE V) study. Patients had continuous monitoring with implantable loop recorders or pacemakers. AF progression was defined as progression to persistent or permanent AF or progression of self-terminating AF with >3% burden increase. Progression of AF was observed in 42 patients (12.3%, 5.9% per year). Patients were given a score based on the components of the 4S-AF scheme. Mean age was 65 [interquartile range (IQR) 58-71] years, 149 (44%) were women, 103 (49%) had heart failure, 276 (81%) had hypertension, and 38 (11%) had coronary artery disease. Median CHA2DS2-VASc (the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses thromboembolic risk. C, congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction; H, hypertension; A2, age ≥ 75 years; D, diabetes mellitus; S2, stroke/transient ischaemic attack/systemic embolism; V, vascular disease; A, age 65-74 years; Sc, sex category (female sex)) score was 2 (IQR 2-3), and median follow-up was 2.1 (1.5-2.6) years. The average score of the 4S-AF scheme was 4.6 ± 1.4. The score points from the 4S-AF scheme did not predict the risk of AF progression [odds ratio (OR) 1.1 95% CI 0.88-1.41, C-statistic 0.53]. However, excluding the symptoms domain, resulting in the 3S-AF (4S-AF scheme without the domain symptom severity, only including stroke risk, severity of AF burden and substrate of AF) scheme, predicted the risk of progression (OR 1.59 95% CI 1.15-2.27, C-statistic 0.62) even after adjusting for sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: In self-terminating AF patients, the 4S-AF scheme does not predict AF progression. The 3S-AF scheme, excluding the symptom domain, may be a more appropriate score to predict AF progression. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02726698 for RACE V.

What Factors Make EU Regulators Want to Communicate Drug Safety Issues Related to SGLT2 Inhibitors? An Online Survey Study.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have found differences in the communication of safety issues among medicines regulatory agencies. OBJECTIVES: To explore (1) to what extent regulators' opinions regarding the need to communicate safety issues related to sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors might be influenced by their concern about the safety issue, and (2) whether regulators' concerns might be influenced by certain characteristics of the safety issue or by the demographic and professional characteristics and attitudes of the regulators. METHODS: An online cross-sectional survey study with a rating-based conjoint analysis among clinical and pharmacovigilance assessors from the EU regulatory network was performed between April and June 2021. Regulators were invited by email, and participants were asked about their level of concern and their opinion regarding the need to communicate about 12 scenarios defined by four characteristics: adverse drug reaction, source of information, causality, and frequency. The outcomes for the first objective were to update the summary of product characteristics (SmPC; yes/no) and to send direct healthcare professional communications (DHPC; yes/no). The determinant was regulators' level of concern (range 0-100%). The outcome of the second objective was regulators' level of concern, and the determinants were the characteristics of the safety issue, demographic and professional characteristics, and attitudes of the regulators (beliefs about medicines and risk perception). RESULTS: A total of 222 regulators completed the survey (64% women; mean age 46 ± 10 years). Depending on the scenario, 54-94% and 25-74% of the participants would update the SmPC or send a DHPC, respectively. The participants' level of concern influenced their opinions regarding the need to update the SmPC and send a DHPC (odds ratio (OR) 13.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.8-21.7 and OR 13.6; 95% CI 9.5-19.2, respectively, for every 10% increase in the level of concern). All characteristics of the safety issue influenced the level of concern. Younger participants, women, and those working for Eastern European agencies had a higher level of concern than older participants, men, and those working in other regions. Beliefs about medicines and general risk perception also influenced their concern. CONCLUSIONS: The opinion regarding the need to communicate safety issues was influenced by the concern of regulators. Regulators' concern was influenced by the characteristics of the safety issue, demographic characteristics, and attitudes. Diverse groups of experts regarding such factors would ensure that various views are incorporated in risk communication decisions.

Multimarker Analysis of Serially Measured GDF-15, NT-proBNP, ST2, GAL-3, cTnI, Creatinine, and Prognosis in Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Studies on serially measured GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) in acute heart failure (HF) are limited. Moreover, several pathophysiological pathways contribute to HF. Therefore, we aimed to explore the (additional) prognostic value of serially measured GDF-15 using a multi-marker approach to more accurately predict HF risk. METHODS: TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and Novel Strategies for Management of Patients With Heart Failure) is a prospective cohort of 496 patients with acute HF who were enrolled in 14 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014. Blood sampling was scheduled at 7 moments during 1-year follow-up. GDF-15, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), ST2 (suppression of tumorigenicity 2), galectin-3, troponin I, and creatinine were measured in a central laboratory. We associated repeated measurements of these biomarkers with the composite primary end point of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, using multivariable joint modeling. RESULTS: Median age was 74 years, and 37% were women. Median baseline GDF-15 was 4632 pg/mL. The primary end point was reached in 188 (40%) patients. The average estimated GDF-15 level increased weeks before the primary end point was reached. The hazard ratio per 1 SD difference in log-GDF-15 was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.78-2.57) unadjusted, 1.96 (1.49-2.53) after adjustment for clinical confounders and 1.44 (1.05-1.91) when jointly modeled with all biomarkers. The adjusted HRs for NT-proBNP were 2.38 (1.78-3.33) and 1.52 (1.15-2.08), respectively. The multimarker model combining GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and troponin I provided a favorable risk discrimination (area under the curve=0.785). CONCLUSIONS: Sequentially measured GDF-15 independently and dynamically predicts risk of adverse outcomes during 1-year follow-up after index admission for acute HF. NT-proBNP remains a robust predictor among potential candidates. Multiple biomarkers should be considered for stratification in clinical practice. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/1783; Unique Identifier: NTR1893. (The trial can be found temporarily at https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=NTR1893.).

A simulated maximum likelihood procedure for analyzing imprecise trade-off thresholds between the benefits and harms of medicines.

Stated preference studies in which information on the willingness to trade-off between the benefits and harms of medicines is elicited from patients or other stakeholders are becoming increasingly mainstream. Such trade-offs can mathematically be represented by a weighted additive function, with the weights, whose ratios determine how much an individual is willing to trade-off between the treatment attributes, being the response vector for the statistical analysis. One way of eliciting trade-off information is through multi-dimensional thresholding (MDT), which is a bisection-based approach that results in increasingly tight bounds on the values of the weights ratios. While MDT is cognitively less demanding than other, more direct elicitation methods, its use complicates the statistical analysis as it results in weights data that are region censored. In this article, we present a simulated maximum likelihood (SML) procedure for fitting a Dirichlet population model directly to the region-censored weights data and perform a series of computational experiments to compare the proposed SML procedure to a naive approach in which a Dirichlet distribution is fitted to the centroids of the weights boundaries obtained with MDT. The results indicate that the SML procedure consistently outperformed the centroid-based approach, with the centroid-based approach requiring three bisection steps per trade-off to achieve a similar precision as the SML procedure with one bisection step per trade-off. Using the newly proposed SML procedure, MDT can be applied with smaller sample sizes or with fewer questions compared to the more naïve centroid-based approach that was applied in previous applications of MDT.

Clinical implications of low estimated protein intake in patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: A higher protein intake has been associated with a higher muscle mass and lower mortality rates in the general population, but data about protein intake and survival in patients with heart failure (HF) are lacking. METHODS: We studied the prevalence, predictors, and clinical outcome of estimated protein intake in 2516 patients from the BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure (BIOSTAT-CHF) index cohort. Protein intake was calculated in spot urine samples using a validated formula [13.9 + 0.907 * body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2 ) + 0.0305 * urinary urea nitrogen level (mg/dL)]. Association with mortality was assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. All findings were validated in an independent cohort. RESULTS: We included 2282 HF patients (mean age 68 ± 12 years and 27% female). Lower estimated protein intake in HF patients was associated with a lower BMI, but with more signs of congestion. Mortality rate in the lowest quartile was 32%, compared with 18% in the highest quartile (P < 0.001). In a multivariable model, lower estimated protein intake was associated with a higher risk of death compared with the highest quartile [hazard ratio (HR) 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.18, P = 0.036 for the lowest quartile and HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.00-2.18, P = 0.049 for the second quartile]. CONCLUSIONS: An estimated lower protein intake was associated with a lower BMI, but signs of congestion were more prevalent. A lower estimated protein intake was independently associated with a higher mortality risk.

Exercise capacity in patients with repaired Tetralogy of Fallot aged 6 to 63 years.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide a perspective for the interpretation of exercise capacity (peakVO2) in patients with repaired Tetralogy of Fallot (patients with rTOF) by describing the course of peakVO2 from patients aged 6-63 years. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed between September 2001 and December 2016 in the German Heart Centre Munich, Germany, and in the University Medical Centre Groningen, the Netherlands. A total of 1175 cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPETs) were collected from 586 patients with rTOF, 46% female. Maximal exertion was verified using a respiratory exchange ratio ≥1.00. PeakVO2 was modelled using time-dependent multilevel models for repeated measurements (n=889 in 300 patients), and compared with subject-specific reference values calculated by the models of Bongers et al and Mylius et al. RESULTS: The peakVO2 of patients with rTOF was reduced at all ages. At the age of 6, the peakVO2 was 614 mL/min (70% of predicted (95% CI 67 to 73)). The reduced increase in peakVO2 during adolescence resulted in a significant lower maximum peakVO2 of 1209 mL/min at 25 years (65% predicted, p<0.001). A linear decline after 25 years was observed in patients and references, although patients showed an accelerated decline, with a -0.24% point of predicted (95% CI 0.11 to 0.38) per year without differences between sexes (p=0.263). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a context for peakVO2 across ages in patients with rTOF under contemporary treatment strategies. It showed that the reduction in peakVO2 originates from childhood and declines over time. Sex differences in patients with rTOF were similar to natural existing sex differences.

Parenteral Prostanoids in Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: Start Early, Dose High, Combine.

Rationale: There are currently no data supporting specific dosing and weaning strategies for parenteral prostanoid therapy in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Objectives: To describe the clinical practice of intravenous (IV) or subcutaneous (SC) prostanoid therapy in pediatric PAH and identify dosing strategies associated with favorable outcome. Methods: From an international multicenter cohort of 275 children with PAH, 98 patients who received IV/SC prostanoid therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Results: IV/SC prostanoids were given as monotherapy (20%) or combined with other PAH-targeted drugs as dual (46%) or triple therapy (34%). The median time-averaged dose was 37 ng/kg/min, ranging 2-136 ng/kg/min. During follow-up, IV/SC prostanoids were discontinued and transitioned to oral or inhaled PAH-targeted therapies in 29 patients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses showed specific hemodynamic criteria at discontinuation of IV/SC prostanoids (mean pulmonary arterial pressure < 35 mm Hg and/or pulmonary vascular resistance index < 4.4 Wood units [WU]⋅m2) identified children with favorable long-term outcome after IV/SC prostanoid discontinuation, compared with patients who do not meet those criteria (P = 0.027). In the children who continued IV/SC prostanoids until the end of follow-up, higher dose (>25 ng/kg/min), early start after diagnosis, and combination with other PAH-targeted drugs were associated with better transplant-free survival. Conclusions: Early initiation of IV/SC prostanoids, higher doses of IV/SC prostanoids, and combination with additional PAH-targeted therapy were associated with favorable outcome. Transition from IV/SC prostanoid therapy to oral or inhaled therapies is safe in the long term in selected children, identified by reaching hemodynamic criteria for durable IV/SC prostanoid discontinuation while on IV/SC prostanoid therapy.

Determinants of quality of life in acute heart failure patients with and without comorbidities: a prospective, observational study.

AIMS: The relation between non-cardiac comorbidities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with heart failure (HF) has been studied to a limited extent. To investigate the HRQoL and their determinants among HF patients with and without comorbidities. METHODS AND RESULTS: TRIUMPH (TRanslational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure) is a Dutch prospective, multicentre study enrolling 496 acute HF patients between 2009 and 2014. We included 334 patients who had completed the HRQoL questionnaires at baseline. The HRQoL was measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) en EuroQuality-of-life five Dimensions (EQ-5D). Comorbidity was defined as having a history of at least one of the following comorbidities: chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and/or cerebrovascular accident. Patients with comorbidity (n = 205, 61%) had lower scores on the physical limitation scale and clinical summary score of the KCCQ (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). Female sex, COPD, previous HF, increasing body mass index (BMI), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high systolic blood pressure, and the presence of anxiety and/or depression negatively influenced the HRQoL among HF patients with comorbidity. Besides anxiety and depression, we hardly found any other determinant of HRQoL in patients without comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Heart failure patients without comorbidity had better HRQoL than patients with comorbidity. Sex, previous HF, BMI, COPD, systolic blood pressure, NT-proBNP levels, and also anxiety and depression were determinants of HRQoL in patients with comorbidity. In those without comorbidity, apart from anxiety and depression, no further determinants of HRQoL were found.

A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Pharmacological Treatment of Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate and compare the aggregate treatment benefit of pharmacological therapy for heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction. BACKGROUND: The estimated treatment effects of various combinations of contemporary HF medical therapies are not well characterized. METHODS: We performed a systematic network meta-analysis, using MEDLINE/EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized controlled trials published between January 1987 and January 2020. We included angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers (BB), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), digoxin, hydralazine-isosorbide dinitrate, ivabradine, angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNi), sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), vericiguat, and omecamtiv-mecarbil. The primary outcome was all-cause death. We estimated the life-years gained in 2 HF populations (BIOSTAT-CHF [BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure] and ASIAN-HF [Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Registry]). RESULTS: We identified 75 relevant trials representing 95,444 participants. A combination of ARNi, BB, MRA, and SGLT2i was most effective in reducing all-cause death (HR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.31-0.49); followed by ARNi, BB, MRA, and vericiguat (HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.32-0.53); and ARNi, BB, and MRA (HR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.36-0.54). Results were similar for the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or first hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.29-0.46 for ARNi, BB, MRA, and SGLT2i; HR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.35-0.56 for ARNi, BB, MRA, and omecamtiv-mecarbil; and HR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.34-0.55 for ARNi, BB, MRA, and vericiguat). The estimated additional number of life-years gained for a 70-year-old patient on ARNi, BB, MRA, and SGLT2i was 5.0 years (2.5-7.5 years) compared with no treatment in secondary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, the estimated aggregate benefit is greatest for a combination of ARNi, BB, MRA, and SGLT2i.

Antiarrhythmic drugs in patients with early persistent atrial fibrillation and heart failure: results of the RACE 3 study.

AIMS: Maintaining sinus rhythm in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging. We explored the efficacy of class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) in patients with persistent AF and mild to moderate heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the RACE 3 trial, patients with early persistent symptomatic AF and short history of mild to moderate HF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were randomized to targeted or conventional therapy. Both groups received AF and HF guideline-driven treatment. Additionally, the targeted-group received mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers, and cardiac rehabilitation. Class I and III AADs could be instituted in case of symptomatic recurrent AF. Eventually, pulmonary vein isolation could be performed. Primary endpoint was sinus rhythm on 7-day Holter after 1-year. Included were 245 patients, age 65 ± 9 years, 193 (79%) men, AF history was 3 (2-6) months, HF history 2 (1-4) months, 72 (29.4%) had HF with reduced LVEF. After baseline electrical cardioversion (ECV), 190 (77.6%) had AF recurrences; 108 (56.8%) received class I/III AADs; 19 (17.6%) flecainide, 36 (33.3%) sotalol, 3 (2.8%) dronedarone, 50 (46.3%) amiodarone. At 1-year 73 of 108 (68.0%) patients were in sinus rhythm, 44 (40.7%) without new AF recurrences. Maintenance of sinus rhythm was significantly better with amiodarone [n = 29/50 (58%)] compared with flecainide [n = 6/19 (32%)] and sotalol/dronedarone [n = 9/39 (23%)], P = 0.0064. Adverse events occurred in 27 (25.0%) patients, were all minor and reversible. CONCLUSION: In stable HF patients with early persistent AF, AAD treatment was effective in nearly half of patients, with no serious adverse effects reported.

Age dependent associations of risk factors with heart failure: pooled population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess age differences in risk factors for incident heart failure in the general population. DESIGN: Pooled population based cohort study. SETTING: Framingham Heart Study, Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease Study, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. PARTICIPANTS: 24 675 participants without a history of heart failure stratified by age into young (<55 years; n=11 599), middle aged (55-64 years; n=5587), old (65-74 years; n=5190), and elderly (≥75 years; n=2299) individuals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident heart failure. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 138/11 599 (1%), 293/5587 (5%), 538/5190 (10%), and 412/2299 (18%) of young, middle aged, old, and elderly participants, respectively, developed heart failure. In young participants, 32% (n=44) of heart failure cases were classified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with 43% (n=179) in elderly participants. Risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, current smoking history, and previous myocardial infarction conferred greater relative risk in younger compared with older participants (P for interaction <0.05 for all). For example, hypertension was associated with a threefold increase in risk of future heart failure in young participants (hazard ratio 3.02, 95% confidence interval 2.10 to 4.34; P<0.001) compared with a 1.4-fold risk in elderly participants (1.43, 1.13 to 1.81; P=0.003). The absolute risk for developing heart failure was lower in younger than in older participants with and without risk factors. Importantly, known risk factors explained a greater proportion of overall population attributable risk for heart failure in young participants (75% v 53% in elderly participants), with better model performance (C index 0.79 v 0.64). Similarly, the population attributable risks of obesity (21% v 13%), hypertension (35% v 23%), diabetes (14% v 7%), and current smoking (32% v 1%) were higher in young compared with elderly participants. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a lower incidence and absolute risk of heart failure among younger compared with older people, the stronger association and greater attributable risk of modifiable risk factors among young participants highlight the importance of preventive efforts across the adult life course.

The Additive Prognostic Value of Serial Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels over Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations are frequently observed in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the predictive value of serial IL-6 measurements beyond brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) remains poorly characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective analysis of the PROTECT cohort (2033 patients with AHF). Plasma IL-6 and BNP levels were determined on days 1, 2, 7 and 14 after admission for AHF in 1591 (78.3%), 1462 (71.9%), 1445 (71.1%) and 1451 (71.4%) patients, respectively. The primary endpoint was 180-day all-cause mortality. The median day-1 IL-6 concentration was 11.1 pg/mL (IQR: 6.6, 20.9) and decreased to 10.1 pg/mL (IQR: 5.6-18.5) at day-7. Higher cross-sectional IL-6 concentrations at all time-points predicted the primary endpoint, independent of a risk model for this cohort and changes in BNP. Each doubling of IL-6 between day-1 and day-7 predicted the primary endpoint independent of baseline IL-6 concentrations, the risk model, baseline BNP and changes in BNP [HR (95% CI): 1.18 (1.07-1.30), p=0.0013]. Collectively, 214 (17%) patients experienced at least a doubling of their IL-6 concentrations between day-1 and day-7. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the temporal evolution patterns of IL-6 in patients with AHF have additive prognostic value independent of changes in BNP.

A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. METHODS: Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. CONCLUSIONS: Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.

Is acute heart failure a distinctive disorder? An analysis from BIOSTAT-CHF.

AIMS: This retrospective analysis sought to identify markers that might distinguish between acute heart failure (HF) and worsening HF in chronic outpatients. METHODS AND RESULTS: The BIOSTAT-CHF index cohort included 2516 patients with new or worsening HF symptoms: 1694 enrolled as inpatients (acute HF) and 822 as outpatients (worsening HF in chronic outpatients). A validation cohort included 935 inpatients and 803 outpatients. Multivariable models were developed in the index cohort using clinical characteristics, routine laboratory values, and proteomics data to examine which factors predict adverse outcomes in both conditions and to determine which factors differ between acute HF and worsening HF in chronic outpatients, validated in the validation cohort. Patients with acute HF had substantially higher morbidity and mortality (6-month mortality was 12.3% for acute HF and 4.7% for worsening HF in chronic outpatients). Multivariable models predicting 180-day mortality and 180-day HF readmission differed substantially between acute HF and worsening HF in chronic outpatients. Carbohydrate antigen 125 was the strongest single biomarker to distinguish acute HF from worsening HF in chronic outpatients, but only yielded a C-index of 0.71. A model including multiple biomarkers and clinical variables achieved a high degree of discrimination with a C-index of 0.913 in the index cohort and 0.901 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies different characteristics and predictors of outcome in acute HF patients as compared to outpatients with chronic HF developing worsening HF. The markers identified may be useful in better diagnosing acute HF and may become targets for treatment development.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide serum levels reflect attrition of the Fontan circulation.

OBJECTIVE: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide has an established role in the diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure. In Fontan patients, this peptide is often increased, but its diagnostic value in this particular non-physiologic, univentricular circulation is unclear. We investigated whether N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide represents ventricular function or other key variables in Fontan patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five consecutive Fontan patients ≥10 years old who attended the outpatient clinic of the Center for Congenital Heart Diseases in 2012-2013 were included. Time since Fontan completion was 16 ± 9 years. Median N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide was 114 (61-264) ng/l and was higher than gender-and age-dependent normal values in 54% of the patients. Peptide Z-scores were higher in patients in NYHA class III/IV compared to those in class I/II, but did not correlate with ventricular function assessed by MRI and echocardiography, nor with peak exercise capacity. Instead, peptide Z-scores significantly correlated with follow-up duration after Fontan completion (p < 0.001), right ventricular morphology (p = 0.004), indexed ventricular mass (p = 0.001), and inferior caval vein diameter (p < 0.001) (adjusted R2 = 0.615). CONCLUSIONS: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels in Fontan patients correlate with functional class, but do not necessarily indicate ventricular dysfunction. Increased peptide levels were associated with a longer existence of the Fontan circulation, morphologic ventricular characteristics, and signs of increased systemic venous congestion. Since the latter are known to be key determinants of the performance of the Fontan circulation, these findings suggest increase in N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels to indicate attrition of the Fontan circulation, independent of ventricular function.