Observed transmissions and ocean-ice-acoustic coupled modelling in the Beaufort Sea.

An ocean-ice-acoustic coupled model is configured for the Beaufort Sea. The model uses outputs from a data assimilating global scale ice-ocean-atmosphere forecast to drive a bimodal roughness algorithm for generating a realistic ice canopy. The resulting range-dependent ice cover obeys observed roughness, keel number density, depth, and slope, and floe size statistics. The ice is inserted into a parabolic equation acoustic propagation model as a near-zero impedance fluid layer along with a model defined range-dependent sound speed profile. Year-long observations of transmissions at 35 Hz from the Coordinated Arctic Acoustic Thermometry Experiment and 925 Hz from the Arctic Mobile Observing System source were recorded over the winter of 2019-2020 on a free-drifting, eight-element vertical line array designed to vertically span the Beaufort duct. The ocean-ice-acoustic coupled model predicts receive levels that reasonably agree with the measurements over propagation ranges of 30-800 km. At 925 Hz, seasonal and sub-seasonal ocean and ice driven variations of propagation loss are captured in the data and reproduced in the model.

Range-dependent impacts of ocean acoustic propagation on automated classification of transmitted bowhead and humpback whale vocalizations.

Significant effort has been made over the last few decades to develop automated passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) systems capable of classifying cetaceans at the species level. The utility of such systems depends on the systems' ability to operate across a wide range of ocean acoustic environments; however, anecdotal evidence suggests that site-specific propagation characteristics impact the performance of PAM systems. Variability in propagation characteristics leads to differences in how each cetacean vocalization is altered as it propagates along the source-receiver path. A propagation experiment was conducted in the Gulf of Mexico to investigate the range-dependent impacts of acoustic propagation on the performance of an automated classifier. Modified bowhead and humpback vocalizations were transmitted over ranges from 1 to 10 km. When the classifier was trained with signals collected near the sound source, it was found that the performance decreased with increasing transmission range-this appeared to be largely explained by decreasing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Generation of performance matrices showed that one method to develop a classifier that maintains high performance across many ranges is to include a varied assortment of ranges in the training data; however, if the training set is limited, it is best to train on relatively low SNR vocalizations.

A crowdsourcing approach to understand weight and weight loss in men.

•Crowdsourcing can be used to detect unexpected barriers to male weight loss.•Some unique behaviors related to high BMI were revealed including watching others play video games.•Novel behaviors to target: less watching video games and more organized physical activity.

Erratum: Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/srep44499.

Comparison of Comorbidity and Frailty Indices in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer Using an Online Tool.

PURPOSE: Comorbidity is an independent predictor of mortality and treatment tolerance in head and neck cancer and should be considered with regard to treatment intensification. Multiple previously validated models can be used to evaluate comorbidity and propensity to benefit from intensive treatment, but they have not been directly compared. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An online tool was developed and used to calculate the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27), Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G), Geriatric 8 (G8), Cancer and Aging Research Group (CARG), and Generalized Competing Event (GCE) scores. To assess interrater variability, five evaluators independently calculated scores on a retrospective cohort of 20 patients. Correlation between models as well as age and performance status were calculated from a cohort of 40 patients. RESULTS: The GCE and G8 models had an excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient and Fleiss' kappa ≥ 0.75) degree of interrater agreement. The CCI, ACE-27, CIRS-G, and CARG had a good (intraclass correlation coefficient and Fleiss' kappa 0.6-0.74) degree of interrater agreement. There was statistically significant correlation between models, especially with the CCI, ACE-27, and CIRS-G indices. Increased age was correlated with an increased CCI score and having moderate to severe comorbidity was correlated with the ACE-27 model. Except for the G8 model, the comorbidity indices were not associated with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status. CONCLUSION: We developed an online tool to calculate indices of comorbidity in patients with head and neck cancer with a high degree of reproducibility. Comorbidity is not strongly correlated with performance status and should be independently evaluated in patients.

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar.

A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence.

Increased interconnection between critical infrastructure networks, such as electric power and communications systems, has important implications for infrastructure reliability and security. Others have shown that increased coupling between networks that are vulnerable to internetwork cascading failures can increase vulnerability. However, the mechanisms of cascading in these models differ from those in real systems and such models disregard new functions enabled by coupling, such as intelligent control during a cascade. This paper compares the robustness of simple topological network models to models that more accurately reflect the dynamics of cascading in a particular case of coupled infrastructures. First, we compare a topological contagion model to a power grid model. Second, we compare a percolation model of internetwork cascading to three models of interdependent power-communication systems. In both comparisons, the more detailed models suggest substantially different conclusions, relative to the simpler topological models. In all but the most extreme case, our model of a "smart" power network coupled to a communication system suggests that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability, in contrast to the percolation model. Together, these results suggest that robustness can be enhanced by interconnecting networks with complementary capabilities if modes of internetwork failure propagation are constrained.

Use of Clinical Decision Support to Increase Premedication Regimen Homogeneity.

PURPOSE: Patients with prior allergic reactions to iodinated contrast require premedication. This study aimed to increase the homogeneity of premedication orders in such patients. METHODS: A point-of-care (POC) clinical decision support (CDS) alert accompanied by an order set was implemented in the electronic health record (EHR) to notify providers of a prior allergic reaction upon ordering an examination involving iodinated contrast. Premedication regimens were retrospectively compared 11 months pre- and 11 months post-alert implementation, with the different regimens being classified as follows: (1) "preferred" (per ACR recommendations), (2) "nonpreferred" (corticosteroid administered <24 hours before examination, but not per ACR recommendations), or (3) "no premedication." RESULTS: Over 22 months, 22,023 iodinated contrast examinations were performed, 200 (186 intravascular, 12 gastrointestinal/genitourinary, 1 intraarticular, 1 intrathecal) being in patients with a documented iodinated contrast allergy (106 pre-, 94 post-alert deployment). Prealert, 41 of 106 patients (38.7%) received a preferred regimen, 47 (44.3%) received nonpreferred regimens, and 18 (17.0%) received no premedication. Postalert, 58 of 94 patients (61.7%) received a preferred regimen, 21 (22.3%) nonpreferred regimens, and 15 (16.0%) no premedication. After alert initiation, the patients prescribed a preferred regimen significantly increased (Z-score = 3.25, P = .001), but there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients with no premedication (Z-score = -0.02, P = .85). In 2 of 200 patients (1.0%), an allergic reaction occurred, both after POC-CDS alert implementation with a preferred regimen administered. CONCLUSIONS: The homogeneity of premedication regimens significantly increased after the alert's launch. However, the proportion of patients with no premedication did not significantly change.

Participation and contribution in crowdsourced surveys.

This paper identifies trends within and relationships between the amount of participation and the quality of contributions in three crowdsourced surveys. Participants were asked to perform a collective problem solving task that lacked any explicit incentive: they were instructed not only to respond to survey questions but also to pose new questions that they thought might-if responded to by others-predict an outcome variable of interest to them. While the three surveys had very different outcome variables, target audiences, methods of advertisement, and lengths of deployment, we found very similar patterns of collective behavior. In particular, we found that: the rate at which participants submitted new survey questions followed a heavy-tailed distribution; the distribution in the types of questions posed was similar; and many users posed non-obvious yet predictive questions. By analyzing responses to questions that contained a built-in range of valid response we found that less than 0.2% of responses lay outside of those ranges, indicating that most participants tend to respond honestly to surveys of this form, even without explicit incentives for honesty. While we did not find a significant relationship between the quantity of participation and the quality of contribution for both response submissions and question submissions, we did find several other more nuanced participant behavior patterns, which did correlate with contribution in one of the three surveys. We conclude that there exists an optimal time for users to pose questions early on in their participation, but only after they have submitted a few responses to other questions. This suggests that future crowdsourced surveys may attract more predictive questions by prompting users to pose new questions at specific times during their participation and limiting question submission at non-optimal times.

Examining the robustness of automated aural classification of active sonar echoes.

Active sonar systems are used to detect underwater man-made objects of interest (targets) that are too quiet to be reliably detected with passive sonar. Performance of active sonar can be degraded by false alarms caused by echoes returned from geological seabed structures (clutter) in shallow regions. To reduce false alarms, a method of distinguishing target echoes from clutter echoes is required. Research has demonstrated that perceptual-based signal features similar to those employed in the human auditory system can be used to automatically discriminate between target and clutter echoes, thereby reducing the number of false alarms and improving sonar performance. An active sonar experiment on the Malta Plateau in the Mediterranean Sea was conducted during the Clutter07 sea trial and repeated during the Clutter09 sea trial. The dataset consists of more than 95,000 pulse-compressed echoes returned from two targets and many geological clutter objects. These echoes were processed using an automatic classifier that quantifies the timbre of each echo using a number of perceptual signal features. Using echoes from 2007, the aural classifier was trained to establish a boundary between targets and clutter in the feature space. Temporal robustness was then investigated by testing the classifier on echoes from the 2009 experiment.

Automated aural classification used for inter-species discrimination of cetaceans.

Passive acoustic methods are in widespread use to detect and classify cetacean species; however, passive acoustic systems often suffer from large false detection rates resulting from numerous transient sources. To reduce the acoustic analyst workload, automatic recognition methods may be implemented in a two-stage process. First, a general automatic detector is implemented that produces many detections to ensure cetacean presence is noted. Then an automatic classifier is used to significantly reduce the number of false detections and classify the cetacean species. This process requires development of a robust classifier capable of performing inter-species classification. Because human analysts can aurally discriminate species, an automated aural classifier that uses perceptual signal features was tested on a cetacean data set. The classifier successfully discriminated between four species of cetaceans-bowhead, humpback, North Atlantic right, and sperm whales-with 85% accuracy. It also performed well (100% accuracy) for discriminating sperm whale clicks from right whale gunshots. An accuracy of 92% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 were obtained for the relatively challenging bowhead and humpback recognition case. These results demonstrated that the perceptual features employed by the aural classifier provided powerful discrimination cues for inter-species classification of cetaceans.

Crowdsourcing novel childhood predictors of adult obesity.

Effective and simple screening tools are needed to detect behaviors that are established early in life and have a significant influence on weight gain later in life. Crowdsourcing could be a novel and potentially useful tool to assess childhood predictors of adult obesity. This exploratory study examined whether crowdsourcing could generate well-documented predictors in obesity research and, moreover, whether new directions for future research could be uncovered. Participants were recruited through social media to a question-generation website, on which they answered questions and were able to pose new questions that they thought could predict obesity. During the two weeks of data collection, 532 participants (62% female; age  =  26.5±6.7; BMI  =  29.0±7.0) registered on the website and suggested a total of 56 unique questions. Nineteen of these questions correlated with body mass index (BMI) and covered several themes identified by prior research, such as parenting styles and healthy lifestyle. More importantly, participants were able to identify potential determinants that were related to a lower BMI, but have not been the subject of extensive research, such as parents packing their children's lunch to school or talking to them about nutrition. The findings indicate that crowdsourcing can reproduce already existing hypotheses and also generate ideas that are less well documented. The crowdsourced predictors discovered in this study emphasize the importance of family interventions to fight obesity. The questions generated by participants also suggest new ways to express known predictors.

Adoptive transfer of lymphocytes isolated from simian immunodeficiency virus SIVmac239Δnef-vaccinated macaques does not affect acute-phase viral loads but may reduce chronic-phase viral loads in major histocompatibility complex-matched recipients.

The live attenuated simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) SIVmac239Δnef is the most effective SIV/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine in preclinical testing. An understanding of the mechanisms responsible for protection may provide important insights for the development of HIV vaccines. Leveraging the uniquely restricted genetic diversity of Mauritian cynomolgus macaques, we performed adoptive transfers between major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-matched animals to assess the role of cellular immunity in SIVmac239Δnef protection. We vaccinated and mock vaccinated donor macaques and then harvested between 1.25 × 10(9) and 3.0 × 10(9) mononuclear cells from multiple tissues for transfer into 12 naive recipients, followed by challenge with pathogenic SIVmac239. Fluorescently labeled donor cells were detectable for at least 7 days posttransfer and trafficked to multiple tissues, including lung, lymph nodes, and other mucosal tissues. There was no difference between recipient macaques' peak or postpeak plasma viral loads. A very modest difference in viral loads during the chronic phase between vaccinated animal cell recipients and mock-vaccinated animal cell recipients did not reach significance (P = 0.12). Interestingly, the SIVmac239 challenge virus accumulated escape mutations more rapidly in animals that received cells from vaccinated donors. These results may suggest that adoptive transfers influenced the course of infection despite the lack of significant differences in the viral loads among animals that received cells from vaccinated and mock-vaccinated donor animals.

Ex vivo SIV-specific CD8 T cell responses in heterozygous animals are primarily directed against peptides presented by a single MHC haplotype.

The presence of certain MHC class I alleles is correlated with remarkable control of HIV and SIV, indicating that specific CD8 T cell responses can effectively reduce viral replication. It remains unclear whether epitopic breadth is an important feature of this control. Previous studies have suggested that individuals heterozygous at the MHC class I loci survive longer and/or progress more slowly than those who are homozygous at these loci, perhaps due to increased breadth of the CD8 T cell response. We used Mauritian cynomolgus macaques with defined MHC haplotypes and viral inhibition assays to directly compare CD8 T cell efficacy in MHC-heterozygous and homozygous individuals. Surprisingly, we found that cells from heterozygotes suppress viral replication most effectively on target cells from animals homozygous for only one of two potential haplotypes. The same heterozygous effector cells did not effectively inhibit viral replication as effectively on the target cells homozygous for the other haplotype. These results indicate that the greater potential breadth of CD8 T cell responses present in heterozygous animals does not necessarily lead to greater antiviral efficacy and suggest that SIV-specific CD8 T cell responses in heterozygous animals have a skewed focus toward epitopes restricted by a single haplotype.

Realizing optical magnetism from dielectric metamaterials.

We demonstrate, for the first time, an all-dielectric metamaterial composite in the midinfrared based on micron-sized, high-index tellurium dielectric resonators. Dielectric resonators are desirable compared to conventional metallodielectric metamaterials at optical frequencies as they are largely angular invariant, free of Ohmic loss, and easily integrated into three-dimensional volumes. Measurements and simulation provide evidence of optical magnetism, which could be used for infrared magnetic mirrors, hard or soft surfaces, and subwavelength cavities.

Operational challenges and solutions with implementation of an adaptive seamless phase 2/3 study.

A wide variety of operational issues were encountered with the planning and implementation of an adaptive, dose-finding, seamless phase 2/3 trial for a diabetes therapeutic. Compared with a conventional design, significant upfront planning was required, as well as earlier, more integrated cross-functional coordination. The existing infrastructure necessitated greater flexibility to meet the needs of the adaptive design. Rapid data acquisition, analysis, and reporting were essential to support the successful implementation of the adaptive algorithm. Drug supply for nine treatment arms had to be carefully managed across many sites worldwide. Details regarding these key operational challenges and others will be discussed along with resolutions taken to enable successful implementation of this adaptive, seamless trial.

Performances of human listeners and an automatic aural classifier in discriminating between sonar target echoes and clutter.

Human listening tests were conducted to investigate if participants could distinguish between samples of target echoes and clutter obtained from a broadband active sonar experiment. For each echo, the listeners assigned a rating based on how confident they were that it was a target echo or clutter. The measure of performance was the area under the binormal receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve, A(z). The mean performance was A(z)=0.95 ± 0.04 when signals were presented with their full available acoustic bandwidth of approximately 0-2 kHz. It was A(z)=0.77 ± 0.08 when the bandwidth was reduced to 0.5-2 kHz. The error bounds are stated as 95% confidence intervals. These results show that the listeners could definitely hear differences, but their performance was significantly degraded when the low-frequency signal information was removed. The performance of an automatic aural classifier was compared against this human-performance baseline. Results of statistical tests showed that it outperformed 2 of 13 listeners and 5 of 9 human listeners in the full-bandwidth and reduced-bandwidth tests, respectively, and performed similarly to the other listeners. Given its performance, the automatic aural classifier may prove beneficial to Navy sonar systems.

Do topological models provide good information about electricity infrastructure vulnerability?

In order to identify the extent to which results from topological graph models are useful for modeling vulnerability in electricity infrastructure, we measure the susceptibility of power networks to random failures and directed attacks using three measures of vulnerability: characteristic path lengths, connectivity loss, and blackout sizes. The first two are purely topological metrics. The blackout size calculation results from a model of cascading failure in power networks. Testing the response of 40 areas within the Eastern U.S. power grid and a standard IEEE test case to a variety of attack/failure vectors indicates that directed attacks result in larger failures using all three vulnerability measures, but the attack-vectors that appear to cause the most damage depend on the measure chosen. While the topological metrics and the power grid model show some similar trends, the vulnerability metrics for individual simulations show only a mild correlation. We conclude that evaluating vulnerability in power networks using purely topological metrics can be misleading.

A lexical basis for N400 context effects: evidence from MEG.

The electrophysiological response to words during the 'N400' time window (approximately 300-500 ms post-onset) is affected by the context in which the word is presented, but whether this effect reflects the impact of context on access of the stored lexical information itself or, alternatively, post-access integration processes is still an open question with substantive theoretical consequences. One challenge for integration accounts is that contexts that seem to require different levels of integration for incoming words (i.e., sentence frames vs. prime words) have similar effects on the N400 component measured in ERP. In this study we compare the effects of these different context types directly, in a within-subject design using MEG, which provides a better opportunity for identifying topographical differences between electrophysiological components, due to the minimal spatial distortion of the MEG signal. We find a qualitatively similar contextual effect for both sentence frame and prime-word contexts, although the effect is smaller in magnitude for shorter word prime contexts. Additionally, we observe no difference in response amplitude between sentence endings that are explicitly incongruent and target words that are simply part of an unrelated pair. These results suggest that the N400 effect does not reflect semantic integration difficulty. Rather, the data are consistent with an account in which N400 reduction reflects facilitated access of lexical information.