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1.
J Intensive Care Soc ; 25(2): 181-189, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38737315

RESUMO

Objectives: To explore the longitudinal recovery of patients admitted to critical care following COVID-19 over the year following hospital discharge. To understand the important aspects of the patients' recovery process and key elements of their caregivers' experiences during this time. Design: A longitudinal qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Setting: Two acute hospitals in South East England and follow-up in the community. Participants: Six COVID-19 critical care survivors from the first wave of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and five relatives were interviewed 3 months after hospital discharge. The same six survivors and one relative were interviewed again at 1 year. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, anonymised and a reflexive thematic analysis was conducted. Results: Three themes were developed: (1) 'The cycle of guilt, fear and stigma'; (2) 'Facing the uncertainties of recovery' and (3) 'Coping with lingering symptoms - the new norm'. The first theme highlights survivors' reluctance to share their experiences associated with contracting the disease. The second theme, explores challenges faced by the survivors and their relatives in navigating the recovery process, given the unknown nature of the illness. The final theme illustrates the mechanisms survivors develop to come to terms with the remnants of their illness and critical care stay. Conclusions: The longitudinal nature of the study highlighted the persisting symptoms of long COVID-19, their impact on survivors and coping methods amidst the ongoing pandemic. Further research into the experiences of those affected in the first and subsequent waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, is desirable to help guide the formulation of the optimally supported recovery pathways.

2.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 11(1)2024 May 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38789283

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: People with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are more likely to adopt a sedentary lifestyle. Increased sedentary behaviour is associated with adverse health consequences and reduced life expectancy. AIM: This mixed-methods systematic review aimed to report the factors contributing to sedentary behaviour in people with COPD. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases (Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library) was conducted and supported by a clinician librarian in March 2023. Papers were identified and screened by two independent researchers against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, followed by data extraction and analysis of quality. Quantitative and qualitative data synthesis was performed. RESULTS: 1037 records were identified, 29 studies were included (26 quantitative and 3 qualitative studies) and most studies were conducted in high-income countries. The most common influencers of sedentary behaviour were associated with disease severity, dyspnoea, comorbidities, exercise capacity, use of supplemental oxygen and walking aids, and environmental factors. In-depth findings from qualitative studies included a lack of knowledge, self-perception and motivation. However, sedentarism in some was also a conscious approach, enabling enjoyment when participating in hobbies or activities. CONCLUSIONS: Influencers of sedentary behaviour in people living with COPD are multifactorial. Identifying and understanding these factors should inform the design of future interventions and guidelines. A tailored, multimodal approach could have the potential to address sedentary behaviour. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023387335.


Assuntos
Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Comportamento Sedentário , Humanos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/psicologia , Tolerância ao Exercício , Exercício Físico
3.
Occup Environ Med ; 81(5): 252-257, 2024 Jun 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38658047

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To assess: (1) the feasibility of novel data collection methods (wearable technology and an application-based psychomotor vigilance test (PVT)), (2) the impact of night shift working on fatigue, both objective and perceived, for doctors working night shifts in acute hospital specialties and (3) the effects of shift intensity and naps obtained on participant fatigue. METHODS: We adopted an innovative, multimodal approach to data collection allowing assessment of objective and perceived measures of fatigue, in addition to markers of shift intensity. This comprised 5 min PVT for objective quantification of fatigue (via the validated, smartphone-based NASA PVT+ application), wearable electronic devices (Fitbit Versa2) for assessment of shift intensity (step counts and active minutes) and questionnaires to elicit perceptions of fatigue and shift intensity. RESULTS: Data was collected from 25 participants for a total of 145 night shifts. Objective fatigue (assessed by PVT performance) was significantly increased post night shift, with a PVT mean reaction time 257 ms pre shift versus 283 ms post shift (p<0.0001). However, differences in PVT pre and post shift were not affected by night shift intensity, nor breaks or naps taken on shift. Differences in psychomotor performance between doctors working in different specialties were also observed. CONCLUSIONS: The data collection methods used were found to be feasible with good participant engagement. Findings support existing evidence that night shift working in healthcare workers is associated with fatigue, with psychomotor impairment observed post shift. Lower shift intensity and napping did not appear to mitigate this effect.


Assuntos
Fadiga , Estudos de Viabilidade , Médicos , Desempenho Psicomotor , Dispositivos Eletrônicos Vestíveis , Humanos , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Desempenho Psicomotor/fisiologia , Médicos/psicologia , Tolerância ao Trabalho Programado/fisiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Jornada de Trabalho em Turnos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Tempo de Reação , Sono/fisiologia
4.
Future Healthc J ; 10(1): 14-20, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37786494

RESUMO

Introduction: Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study assessed the feasibility of smartwatches supporting rehabilitation post-surgical fixation. Methods: This UK-based non-randomised intervention study recruited patients who had sustained a hip fracture (age ≥65 and Abbreviated Mental Test Score ≥8/10), following surgical fixation, at one hospital to the intervention group, and at a second hospital to a usual care group. The intervention group received a smartwatch (Fitbit Charge 4) and app (CUSH Health©). Feasibility measures included retention and completion of outcome measures. Results: Between November 2020 and November 21, 66 participants were recruited (median age 78 (IQR 74-84)). The intervention cohort were younger, with no significant differences in frailty or multi-morbidity between the cohorts. Hospital stay was shorter in the intervention cohort (10 days (7-16) versus 12 (10-18), p=0.05). There were 15 falls-related readmissions in the control cohort, including 11 fractures, with none in the intervention cohort (p=0.016). In the intervention group, median daily step counts increased from 477 (320-697) in hospital, to 931 (505-1238) 1 week post-discharge, to 5,352 (3,552-7,944) at 12-weeks (p=0.001). Of the intervention cohort, 12 withdrew. Conclusion: This study found that smartwatch-supported rehabilitation was feasible in this cohort. A significant proportion of patients either chose not to participate or withdrew; such a decrease in participants must be addressed to avoid digital exclusion. Falls and fracture-related readmissions were more frequent at the control site compared with the intervention site.

5.
Future Healthc J ; 10(1): 21-26, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37786499

RESUMO

Background: Outside critical care environments, few studies have assessed the significance of oliguric acute kidney injury (AKI). This study investigated the feasibility of an electronic fluid balance chart to diagnose oliguric AKI. Data were used to determine if oliguric AKI was met earlier than creatinine AKI and to establish outcomes of those who developed AKI. Methods: A single-centre prospective cohort study investigated Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes oliguric and creatinine AKI criteria on general surgical wards. Results: 2,149 cases were included in the analysis. Incidence of oliguric AKI was significantly higher than creatinine criteria (73 versus 10.1%) and detection occurred earlier (2.1 versus 6.1 days, p<0.05). In cases with oliguric AKI, 8.1% also developed AKI by creatinine criteria. In cases not meeting oliguric AKI criteria, fewer cases developed creatinine AKI, as compared to those meeting oliguric AKI criteria (7.9% versus 11%, p=0.043). There was a high incidence of missing data. Conclusions: Oliguric AKI was met in a high proportion of cases and occurred earlier than by changes in creatinine. Barriers to consistency of recording must be addressed before oliguric criteria could be implemented in clinical practice.

6.
J Intensive Care Soc ; 24(3): 338-340, 2023 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37744075

RESUMO

Intensivists are increasingly involved in the care of frail patients as our population ages. Careful person-orientated, individualised decision-making, weighing benefits and harms of critical care are required in such situations. Few studies have reported outcomes of patients with treatment limitations. This dual-centre observational study reports outcomes of 3781 patients (2018-20). At least one treatment limitation was set at admission in 13% (n = 486). Of this group 55% survived to hospital discharge, of whom 69% were discharged home; 39% remained alive at 1 year. These findings provide objective data to support clinicians, patients and relatives in shared decision-making. Future multi-centre work could explore how best to identify those most likely to benefit from critical care.

7.
Hip Int ; 33(6): 1107-1114, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36787163

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in older people. Accurate risk stratification is important for planning of care, informed decision-making and communication with patients and relatives. The Older Persons' Emergency Risk Assessment (OPERA) score is a risk stratification score for older people admitted to hospital. Our aims were to validate OPERA in hip fracture patients, update the score and compare performance with the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS). METHODS: This dual-centre 3-year observational study (2016-2018) included acutely admitted hip fracture patients managed surgically aged ⩾65 years. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included residence at 120 days and 1-year mortality. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) analysis and Brier scores (discrimination) and calibration curves. The OPERA score was updated using regression analysis with additional independent predictors and validated using bootstrap analysis. RESULTS: 2142 patients (median age 86 [80-91] years) were included with a 30-day mortality of 5.2% and a 1-year mortality of 31.4%. 30-day mortality AUC for OPERA was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and for NHFS 0.68 (0.65-0.70). For 1-year mortality AUC for OPERA was 0.74 (0.73-0.75) and for NHFS 0.70 (0.69-0.71). The OPERA Score was updated to Hip-OPERA, including ASA grade. Hip-OPERA demonstrated an AUC for 30-day mortality of 0.77 (0.73-0.81) and an AUC for 1-year mortality of 0.76 (0.75-0.77). AUC for new residential care status at 120 days was 0.79 (0.78-0.80). CONCLUSIONS: Hip-OPERA demonstrated superior discrimination to the NHFS and OPERA for 30-day mortality, 1-year mortality and residence at 120 days following hip fracture. External validation is desirable.


Assuntos
Artroplastia de Quadril , Fraturas do Quadril , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Fraturas do Quadril/diagnóstico , Fraturas do Quadril/cirurgia , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Morbidade , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Estudos Retrospectivos
8.
Nurs Crit Care ; 28(1): 80-88, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35561020

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with an unprecedented number of critical care survivors. Their experiences through illness and recovery are likely to be complex, but little is known about how best to support them. AIM: This study aimed to explore experiences of illness and recovery from the perspective of survivors, their relatives and professionals involved in their care. STUDY DESIGN: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with three stakeholder groups during the first wave of the pandemic. A total of 23 participants (12 professionals, 6 survivors and 5 relatives) were recruited from 5 acute hospitals in England and interviewed by telephone or video call. Data analysis followed the principles of Reflexive Thematic Analysis. FINDINGS: Three themes were generated from their interview data: (1) Deteriorating fast-a downhill journey from symptom onset to critical care; (2) Facing a new virus in a hospital-a remote place; and (3) Returning home as a survivor, maintaining normality and recovering slowly. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight challenges in accessing care and communication between patients, hospital staff and relatives. Following hospital discharge, patients adopted a reframed 'survivor identity' to cope with their experience of illness and slow recovery process. The concept of survivorship in this patient group may be beneficial to promote and explore further. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: All efforts should be made to continue to improve communication between patients, relatives and health professionals during critical care admissions, particularly while hospital visits are restricted. Adapting to life after critical illness may be more challenging while health services are restricted by the impacts of the pandemic. It may be beneficial to promote the concept of survivorship, following admission to critical care due to severe COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Cuidadores , Humanos , Pandemias , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Pessoal de Saúde
9.
J Sci Med Sport ; 26(1): 14-18, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36435729

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Endurance exercise is known to cause a rise in serum creatinine. It is not known to what extent this rise reflects renal stress and a potential acute kidney injury (AKI). Increases in Insulin Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 7 (IGFBP7) and Tissue Inhibitor of Metalloprotinases-2 (TIMP-2), urinary biomarkers of cell cycle arrest and renal stress, are associated with the development of AKI in clinical populations. DESIGN: Repeated measures study. METHODS: Runners were recruited at the 2019 Brighton Marathon (UK) and provided urine and blood samples at baseline, immediately post-race and 24 h post-race. Serum creatinine, urinary creatinine and urinary IGFBP7 and TIMP-2 were analysed from the samples. RESULTS: Seventy nine participants (23 females, 56 males), aged 43 ±â€¯10 yrs. (mean ±â€¯SD), finish time 243 ±â€¯40mins were included for analysis. Serum creatinine increased over the race by 40 ±â€¯26% (p < 0.001), TIMP-2 increased by 555 ±â€¯697% (p < 0.001) and IGFBP7 increased by 1094 ±â€¯1491% (p < 0.001) over the race. A subset of twenty-two participants supplied samples 24 h post-race, reporting values similar to baseline for all variables. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to report large rises in IGFBP7 and TIMP-2 following marathon running. This suggests that rises in creatinine are not fully explained by changes in production and clearance and marathon running induces a state of kidney stress and potential injury.


Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda , Corrida de Maratona , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Creatinina , Inibidor Tecidual de Metaloproteinase-2 , Biomarcadores , Pontos de Checagem do Ciclo Celular , Injúria Renal Aguda/diagnóstico
11.
Kidney360 ; 3(7): 1158-1168, 2022 07 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35919538

RESUMO

Background: Clinical use of biomarkers requires the development of standardized assays and establishment of cutoffs. Urinary C-C motif chemokine ligand 14 (CCL14) has been validated to predict persistent severe AKI in critically ill patients with established AKI. We now report on the performance of standardized cutoffs using a clinical assay. Methods: A second aim of the multicenter RUBY Study was to establish two cutoffs for the prediction of persistent severe AKI (defined as KDIGO stage 3 AKI for at least 72 consecutive hours). Patients who received renal replacement therapy (RRT) or died before achieving 72 hours in stage 3 AKI were also considered to have reached the end point. Results: A cutoff value for urinary CCL14 of 1.3 ng/ml was determined to achieve high sensitivity (91%; 95% CI, 84% to 96%), and 13 ng/ml achieved high specificity (93%; 95% CI, 89% to 96%). The cutoff of 1.3 ng/ml identifies the majority (91%) of patients who developed persistent severe AKI with a negative predictive value of 92%. The cutoff at 13 ng/ml had a positive predictive value of 72% (with a negative predictive value of 75%). In multivariable adjusted analyses, a CCL14 concentration between 1.3 and 13 ng/ml had an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 3.82 (95% CI, 1.73 to 9.12; P=0.001) for the development of persistent severe AKI compared with those with a CCL14 ≤1.3 ng/ml, whereas a CCL14 >13 ng/ml had an aOR of 10.4 (95% CI, 3.89 to 29.9; P<0.001). Conclusions: Using a clinical assay, these standardized cutoffs (1.3 and 13 ng/ml) allow for the identification of patients at high risk for the development of persistent severe AKI. These results have immediate utility in helping to guide AKI patient care and may facilitate future clinical trials.Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Identification and Validation of Biomarkers of Acute Kidney Injury Recovery, NCT01868724.


Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda , Bioensaio , Quimiocinas CC , Injúria Renal Aguda/diagnóstico , Bioensaio/normas , Quimiocinas CC/análise , Humanos , Ligantes , Terapia de Substituição Renal
13.
JMIR Rehabil Assist Technol ; 9(2): e25494, 2022 May 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35417402

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As a sequela of the COVID-19 pandemic, a large cohort of critical illness survivors have had to recover in the context of ongoing societal restrictions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to use smartwatches (Fitbit Charge 3; Fitbit LLC) to assess changes in the step counts and heart rates of critical care survivors following hospital admission with COVID-19, use these devices within a remote multidisciplinary team (MDT) setting to support patient recovery, and report on our experiences with this. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicenter observational trial in 8 UK critical care units. A total of 50 participants with moderate or severe lung injury resulting from confirmed COVID-19 were recruited at discharge from critical care and given a smartwatch (Fitbit Charge 3) between April and June 2020. The data collected included step counts and daily resting heart rates. A subgroup of the overall cohort at one site-the MDT site (n=19)-had their smartwatch data used to inform a regular MDT meeting. A patient feedback questionnaire and direct feedback from the MDT were used to report our experience. Participants who did not upload smartwatch data were excluded from analysis. RESULTS: Of the 50 participants recruited, 35 (70%) used and uploaded data from their smartwatch during the 1-year period. At the MDT site, 74% (14/19) of smartwatch users uploaded smartwatch data, whereas 68% (21/31) of smartwatch users at the control sites uploaded smartwatch data. For the overall cohort, we recorded an increase in mean step count from 4359 (SD 3488) steps per day in the first month following discharge to 7914 (SD 4146) steps per day at 1 year (P=.003). The mean resting heart rate decreased from 79 (SD 7) beats per minute in the first month to 69 (SD 4) beats per minute at 1 year following discharge (P<.001). The MDT subgroup's mean step count increased more than that of the control group (176% increase vs 42% increase, respectively; +5474 steps vs +2181 steps, respectively; P=.04) over 1 year. Further, 71% (10/14) of smartwatch users at the MDT site and 48% (10/21) of those at the control sites strongly agreed that their Fitbit motivated them to recover, and 86% (12/14) and 48% (10/21), respectively, strongly agreed that they aimed to increase their activity levels over time. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to use smartwatch data to report on the 1-year recovery of patients who survived a COVID-19 critical illness. This is also the first study to report on smartwatch use within a post-critical care MDT. Future work could explore the role of smartwatches as part of a randomized controlled trial to assess clinical and economic effectiveness. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.12968/ijtr.2020.0102.

16.
Eur J Emerg Med ; 29(1): 49-55, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34545027

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Triage and redirection of patients to alternative care providers is one tool used to overcome the growing issue of crowding in emergency departments (EDs). Electronic patient self-triage (eTriage) may reduce waiting times and required face-to-face contact. There are limited studies into its efficacy, accuracy and validity in an ED setting. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the agreement and validity of eTriage with a reference standard of nurse face-to-face triage. A secondary aim was to assess the ability of both systems to predict high and low acuity outcomes. DESIGN: This was a retrospective study conducted over 8 months in two UK hospitals. Inclusion criteria were all ambulatory patients aged ≥18. All patients completed an eTriage and nurse-led triage using the Manchester Triage System (MTS). MAIN RESULTS: During the study period, 43 788 adult patients attended one of the two ED sites and 26 757 used eTriage. A total of 1424 patient episodes had no recorded MTS and were excluded from the study leaving 25 333 paired triages for the final cohort. Agreement between eTriage and nurse triage was low with a weighted Kappa coefficient of 0.14 (95% CI, 0.14-0.15) with an associated weak positive correlation (rs 0.321). Level of undertriage by eTriage compared with nurse triage was 10.1%, and overtriage was 59.2%. The sensitivity for prediction of high acuity outcomes was 88.5% (95% CI, 77.9-95.3%) for eTriage and 53.8% (95% CI 41.1-66.0%) for nurse MTS. The specificity for predicting low risk patients was 88.5% (95% CI, 87.4-89.5%) for eTriage and 80.6% (95% CI, 79.3-81.8%) for nurse MTS. CONCLUSION: Agreement and correlation of eTriage with the reference standard of nurse MTS was low; patients using eTriage tended to over triage when compared to the triage nurse. eTriage had a higher sensitivity for high acuity presentations and demonstrated similar specificity for low acuity presentations when compared to triage nurse MTS. Further work is necessary to validate eTriage as a potential tool for safe redirection of ED attenders to alternative care providers.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Triagem , Adulto , Eletrônica , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reino Unido
17.
Future Healthc J ; 8(2): e326-e329, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34286209

RESUMO

During the first wave of intensive care unit admissions with COVID-19, in response to the constraints of social distancing we introduced a new digitally enabled critical care rehabilitation pathway. Using smartwatch technology, this pathway rapidly enabled our multidisciplinary team to observe the recovery of a COVID-19 cohort across eight NHS acute hospitals across the south of England. This represents one of the geographically largest smartwatch studies of its kind.

19.
J Intensive Care Soc ; 22(2): 152-158, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34025755

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Acute hepatic dysfunction in the critically ill population with pre-existing liver cirrhosis is associated with a high mortality. Several prediction models have been developed to risk stratify patients with liver disease. METHODS: This UK dual-centre non-specialist hospital retrospective study (2015-2019) externally validated the Liver injury and Failure evaluation score (incorporating lactate, bilirubin and International Normalised Ratio), alongside two other general intensive care unit prediction models (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II). Inclusion criteria matched a recent UK-wide study including at least one of biopsy proven cirrhosis, imaging suggestive of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy or portal hypertension. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-nine admissions met inclusion criteria over the study period (n = 169), mean age 57( ±13). In-hospital mortality was 40% in this cohort compared to 18% of all intensive care unit individuals during the same period. Variceal bleeding was associated with a lower short-term (18% versus 47%, P < 0.001, odds ratio 0.3 (95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5)) and longer-term mortality (log rank P = 0.015). In-patient mortality was higher in cases requiring renal replacement therapy (82% versus 29%, odds ratio 11.1 (95% confidence interval 4.6-26.9), P < 0.001) or ventilation (47% versus 32%, odds ratio 1.9 (1.1-3.4), P = 0.03). For in-patient mortality, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were Liver injury and Failure evaluation 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.62-0.77), Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre 0.80 (0.74-0.86) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II 0.73 (0.65-0.81). Forty-one per cent of cases were alive at one-year follow-up. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for one-year survival were Liver injury and Failure evaluation 0.69 (0.61-0.77), Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre 0.75 (0.67-0.82) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II 0.69 (0.61-0.77). CONCLUSION: This first Liver injury and Failure evaluation score validation in a UK non-specialist hospital setting suggests this parsimonious, easy to calculate model may have utility in prediction of short-term and one-year mortality. As with previous studies variceal haemorrhage was associated with lower mortality.

20.
PLoS One ; 16(3): e0248477, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33735316

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: Demographic changes alongside medical advances have resulted in older adults accounting for an increasing proportion of emergency hospital admissions. Current measures of illness severity, limited to physiological parameters, have shortcomings in this cohort, partly due to patient complexity. This study aimed to derive and validate a risk score for acutely unwell older adults which may enhance risk stratification and support clinical decision-making. METHODS: Data was collected from emergency admissions in patients ≥65 years from two UK general hospitals (April 2017- April 2018). Variables underwent regression analysis for in-hospital mortality and independent predictors were used to create a risk score. Performance was assessed on external validation. Secondary outcomes included seven-day mortality and extended hospital stay. RESULTS: Derivation (n = 8,974) and validation (n = 8,391) cohorts were analysed. The model included the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), clinical frailty scale (CFS), acute kidney injury, age, sex, and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool. For mortality, area under the curve for the model was 0.79 (95% CI 0.78-0.80), superior to NEWS2 0.65 (0.62-0.67) and CFS 0.76 (0.74-0.77) (P<0.0001). Risk groups predicted prolonged hospital stay: the highest risk group had an odds ratio of 9.7 (5.8-16.1) to stay >30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our simple validated model (Older Persons' Emergency Risk Assessment [OPERA] score) predicts in-hospital mortality and prolonged length of stay and could be easily integrated into electronic hospital systems, enabling automatic digital generation of risk stratification within hours of admission. Future studies may validate the OPERA score in external populations and consider an impact analysis.


Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda/epidemiologia , Tomada de Decisão Clínica/métodos , Estado Terminal/mortalidade , Escore de Alerta Precoce , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Injúria Renal Aguda/diagnóstico , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estado Terminal/terapia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Masculino , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Reino Unido
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