Dermal mycobacteriosis and warming sea surface temperatures are associated with elevated mortality of striped bass in Chesapeake Bay.

Temperature is hypothesized to alter disease dynamics, particularly when species are living at or near their thermal limits. When disease occurs in marine systems, this can go undetected, particularly if the disease is chronic and progresses slowly. As a result, population-level impacts of diseases can be grossly underestimated. Complex migratory patterns, stochasticity in recruitment, and data and knowledge gaps can hinder collection and analysis of data on marine diseases. New tools enabling quantification of disease impacts in marine environments include coupled biogeochemical hydrodynamic models (to hindcast key environmental data), and multievent, multistate mark-recapture (MMSMR) (to quantify the effects of environmental conditions on disease processes and assess population-level impacts). We used MMSMR to quantify disease processes and population impacts in an estuarine population of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in Chesapeake Bay from 2005 to 2013. Our results supported the hypothesis that mycobacteriosis is chronic, progressive, and, frequently, lethal. Yearly disease incidence in fish age three and above was 89%, suggesting that this disease impacts nearly every adult striped bass. Mortality of diseased fish was high, particularly in severe cases, where it approached 80% in typical years. Severely diseased fish also had a 10-fold higher catchability than healthy fish, which could bias estimates of disease prevalence. For both healthy and diseased fish, mortality increased with the modeled average summer sea surface temperature (SST) at the mouth of the Rappahannock River; in warmer summers (average SST ≥ 29°C), a cohort is predicted to experience >90% mortality in 1 year. Regression of disease signs in mildly and moderately diseased fish was <2%. These results suggest that these fish are living at their maximum thermal tolerance and that this is driving increased disease and mortality. Management of this fishery should account for the effects of temperature and disease on impacted populations.

Rising Temperatures, Molting Phenology, and Epizootic Shell Disease in the American Lobster.

Phenological mismatch-maladaptive changes in phenology resulting from altered timing of environmental cues-is an increasing concern in many ecological systems, yet its effects on disease are poorly characterized. American lobster (Homarus americanus) is declining at its southern geographic limit. Rising seawater temperatures are associated with seasonal outbreaks of epizootic shell disease (ESD), which peaks in prevalence in the fall. We used a 34-year mark-recapture data set to investigate relationships between temperature, molting phenology, and ESD in Long Island Sound, where temperatures are increasing at 0.4°C per decade. Our analyses support the hypothesis that phenological mismatch is linked to the epidemiology of ESD. Warming spring temperatures are correlated with earlier spring molting. Lobsters lose diseased cuticle by molting, and early molting increases the intermolt period in the summer, when disease prevalence is increasing to a fall peak. In juvenile and adult male lobsters, September ESD prevalence was correlated with early molting, while October ESD prevalence was correlated with summer seawater temperature. This suggests that temperature-induced molting phenology affects the timing of the onset of ESD, but later in the summer this signal is swamped by the stronger signal of summer temperatures, which we hypothesize are associated with an increased rate of new infections. October ESD prevalence was ∼80% in years with hot summers and ∼30% in years with cooler summers. Yearly survival of diseased lobsters is <50% that of healthy lobsters. Thus, population impacts of ESD are expected to increase with increasing seawater temperatures.

Impact of disease on the survival of three commercially fished species.

Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics of bitter crab disease; striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, that experience chronic dermal and visceral mycobacteriosis; and American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Southern New England stock, that experience chronic epizootic shell disease. All three diseases decreased survival of diseased hosts. Survival of diseased adult male crabs was 1% (0.003-0.022, 95% CI) that of uninfected crabs indicating nearly complete mortality of infected crabs in this life stage. Survival of moderately and severely diseased striped bass (which comprised 15% and 11% of the population, respectively) was 84% (70-100%, 95% CI), and 54% (42-68%, 95% CI) that of healthy striped bass. The disease-adjusted yearly natural mortality rate for striped bass was 0.29, nearly double the previously accepted value, which did not include disease. Survival of moderately and severely diseased lobsters was 30% (15-60%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters and survival of mildly diseased lobsters was 45% (27-75%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters. High disease mortality in ovigerous females may explain the poor recruitment and rapid declines observed in this population. Stock assessments should account for disease-related mortality when resource management options are evaluated.

Monitoring the prevalence of the parasitic dinoflagellate Hematodinium sp. in snow crabs Chionoecetes opilio from Conception Bay, Newfoundland.

Bitter crab disease (BCD) of snow crabs Chionoecetes opilio is caused by a parasitic dinoflagellate, Hematodinium sp. In Newfoundland's commercial fishery, infected snow crabs are identified using visual, macroscopic signs of disease for separation prior to processing. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of gross, macroscopic diagnosis of Hematodinium sp. by comparing these results with microscopic examination of prepared hemolymph smears. The sensitivity of a diagnostic test is the probability that the test will yield a positive result given that the animal has the disease. The specificity is the probability of a negative result given the animal is not diseased. In October 1998, we conducted a design-based survey using cluster sampling in 2 strata. Over 10 000 snow crabs from pot and trawl surveys were examined macroscopically for BCD. In addition, over 350 crabs were randomly examined microscopically for disease. The double sampling resulted in an estimated sensitivity of 52.7% and an estimated specificity of 100%. That is, a positive result from macroscopic examination is definitive, if the observer is well trained, but macroscopic examination will fail to detect infections in crabs with borderline clinical signs of disease. The prevalence estimated from macroscopic observations (p(st) = 2.24%) was corrected for misclassification by dividing p(st) by the estimated sensitivity (0.527), giving a corrected estimate of 4.25%. The use of double sampling provides for efficient estimation of prevalence in that large numbers of crabs can be quickly examined for gross signs of infection and the results corrected for misclassification based on a limited number of observations with a better, but time-consuming test. In addition, the prevalence of macroscopically infected male crabs was lower in a trap survey (0.57%) compared to a trawl survey (1.59%). In the trawl survey, female crabs had a significantly higher prevalence of macroscopically diagnosed infections than males (6.34%). The prevalence of BCD has shown an alarming increase since it was first detected in Newfoundland during the early 1990s. Transmission and mortality studies are warranted to better understand the effect of the disease on its commercially important host.